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 OPINION POLLS 2018-2022, Strong and stable... |
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 15th October 2019, 01:52 PM
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#421
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 Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364 
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QUOTE(Trick Or Queef! @ Oct 15 2019, 11:07 AM)  Latest polls have a 3% gap, and we all knoe these polls are propaganda exercises for Tories, rather than fact. They're done. They're finished. I hate to tell you this, but wishful thinking doesn't work... 
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15th October 2019, 01:59 PM
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#422
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 I'm a paragon so don't perceive me
Joined: 3 February 2011
Posts: 37,419 User: 12,929                |
I think we're still in a honeymoon period for the PM (even Brown's lasted 3 months) and the Tories could easily fall away in any election scenario. Corbyn's shown his expertise in a campaign scenario, Johnson from his public appearances decidedly... hasn't. And the gap was far bigger in 2017. This isn't an ideal situation for the Conservatives.
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15th October 2019, 02:06 PM
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#423
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 Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
Posts: 44,070 User: 18,639
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Rememebr: polling companies are propaganda tools. The bandwagon effect is a real thing. They were completely wrong last time, all fvaouring 400 seat Tory majorities etc! We saw the same with Michihan, with them pretending Hillary was 23 points ahead vs Bernie.
The Tories are finished. |
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16th October 2019, 04:32 AM
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#424
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Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364
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QUOTE(Trick Or Queef! @ Oct 15 2019, 03:06 PM) Rememebr: polling companies are propaganda tools. The bandwagon effect is a real thing. They were completely wrong last time, all fvaouring 400 seat Tory majorities etc! We saw the same with Michihan, with them pretending Hillary was 23 points ahead vs Bernie. The Tories are finished. Is *everything* a conspiracy for you? |
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16th October 2019, 04:36 AM
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#425
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Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364
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QUOTE(Tones and Iz @ Oct 15 2019, 02:59 PM) I think we're still in a honeymoon period for the PM (even Brown's lasted 3 months) and the Tories could easily fall away in any election scenario. Corbyn's shown his expertise in a campaign scenario, Johnson from his public appearances decidedly... hasn't. And the gap was far bigger in 2017. This isn't an ideal situation for the Conservatives. The gap *was* bigger in 2017, but polling companies tend to adjust their methodology when they get things that wrong, so I think it would be unwise of Labour to rely on a similar campaign surge, or that the Tories will run such a lacklustre/complacent campaign. |
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16th October 2019, 09:52 AM
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#426
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Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
Posts: 44,070 User: 18,639
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You do rralisr impartiality rules come in to play too, so thr one party state media has to dial back its government propaganda too? The polls in thr US are still reporting error-riddled polls and freely ADMIT Bernie will probably outperform them. Oops. It's the same here. Sorry.
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17th October 2019, 05:18 AM
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#427
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Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364
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17th October 2019, 09:02 AM
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#428
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Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
Posts: 44,070 User: 18,639
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Yes. It is ToryGov, literally the worst one.
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17th October 2019, 09:06 AM
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#429
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 #38BBE0 otherwise known as 'sky blue'
Joined: 27 October 2008
Posts: 16,170 User: 7,561
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The recent increase in the Conservative vote share has been taken from the Brexit Party, that may change if there is an extension beyond 31st October...
Average (1-10 Oct) over 4 polls: Con 34% Lab 24½% Lib Dem 18% Brexit Party 12% Green 5% |
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18th October 2019, 05:10 AM
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#430
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Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364
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QUOTE(Trick Or Queef! @ Oct 17 2019, 10:02 AM) Yes. It is ToryGov, literally the worst one. Why can you not grasp that it is not in *anyone's* interest to 'rig' polls - as the last election proved, real votes always trump polls. In any case, poor predictions hurt polling companies commercially! The 'bandwagon' effect was notably absent last time, so don't bother citing it... This post has been edited by vidcapper: 18th October 2019, 05:11 AM |
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18th October 2019, 01:47 PM
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#431
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Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
Posts: 44,070 User: 18,639
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Except it buoyed the Tories, as did Brexshit? Given REAL UNBALANCED polling feom the start, Mad May would have lost far more seats.
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18th October 2019, 01:47 PM
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#432
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Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
Posts: 44,070 User: 18,639
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If it weren't in the corporate neoliberal interest, polls would be far more accurate. It is a whole thing in political theory. Sorry.
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18th October 2019, 02:10 PM
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#433
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Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364
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QUOTE(Trick Or Queef! @ Oct 18 2019, 02:47 PM) Except it buoyed the Tories, as did Brexshit? Given REAL UNBALANCED polling feom the start, Mad May would have lost far more seats. Lets get this straight - you'd rather have polls with an inbuilt bias towards Labour? How is that any better than vice versa?  The polls may have given the Tories an over-optimistic view of their position, but even after the real position was clarified, Labour *still* did not win nearly enough seats to prevail. |
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18th October 2019, 02:12 PM
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#434
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Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
Posts: 44,070 User: 18,639
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And yet wa sonly 2k votes away from an overall majority based on narrow seats after being written off THANKD TO BIASED POLLS. Soo yeaah.
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18th October 2019, 02:56 PM
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#435
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Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364
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QUOTE(Trick Or Queef! @ Oct 18 2019, 03:12 PM) And yet wa sonly 2k votes away from an overall majority based on narrow seats after being written off THANKD TO BIASED POLLS. Soo yeaah. You're getting really desperate if you're resorting to fantasy politics now! 
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18th October 2019, 03:40 PM
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#436
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Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
Posts: 44,070 User: 18,639
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Not fanrasy, but facts. That was the difference. Sorry.
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18th October 2019, 04:04 PM
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#437
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Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364
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QUOTE(Trick Or Queef! @ Oct 18 2019, 04:40 PM) Not fanrasy, but facts. That was the difference. Sorry. No, the facts are what the result *actually was*!
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18th October 2019, 04:06 PM
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#438
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 22,001 User: 53
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Michael doesn't like facts. He still says REMAIN won and Hillary's sat in the Oval office.
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18th October 2019, 04:12 PM
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#439
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Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
Posts: 44,070 User: 18,639
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QUOTE(vidcapper @ Oct 18 2019, 05:04 PM) No, the facts are what the result *actually was*! And the fact is 2k votes total across select constituencies would have won it. |
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18th October 2019, 04:14 PM
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#440
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 22,001 User: 53
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QUOTE(Trick Or Queef! @ Oct 18 2019, 05:12 PM) And the fact is 2k votes total across select constituencies would have won it. Would have, could have. All irrelevant. Those voters couldn't stomach Corbyn as PM though and won't next time. He's a failure. |
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