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> By-elections 2020 -, New parlaiment, new thread
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Iz 💀
post Apr 6 2021, 08:03 AM
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Yeah I would imagine that all of those 3rd-party vote totals will be bigger, I'd call out about 10-15% split between them.

Hartlepool has been Labour since its creation so losing it would be a huge blow to Labour, a seat that Corbyn held, that held on through all the struggles of the 80s, so I wouldn't say that if it did go it reflects entirely badly on Starmer's leadership (though it certainly would be a very bad look that would indicate his current strategy is wrong for keeping these kinds of seats), but that if the Tories did win this, then they've effectively expanded their coalition of voters over and above Labour's.

Main thing I'm now interested in watching is that if that poll plays out, whether the NIP votes exceed the vote gap.
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Iz 💀
post Apr 6 2021, 08:07 AM
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btw I do think NIP are a riot from my position as a solely social media observer, actually having fun with their campaign, a solid set of branding and ideals, and a great environment for them to test the waters of a left nationalist party in even if it does risk Labour an MP. I think they will exceed 2%.

I reckon even if Labour do lose it it's a likely flip back at the next GE unless this is the beginning of true pasokification.
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Harve
post Apr 6 2021, 04:25 PM
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QUOTE(Iz 💀 @ Apr 6 2021, 10:03 AM) *
Yeah I would imagine that all of those 3rd-party vote totals will be bigger, I'd call out about 10-15% split between them.

Hartlepool has been Labour since its creation so losing it would be a huge blow to Labour, a seat that Corbyn held, that held on through all the struggles of the 80s, so I wouldn't say that if it did go it reflects entirely badly on Starmer's leadership (though it certainly would be a very bad look that would indicate his current strategy is wrong for keeping these kinds of seats), but that if the Tories did win this, then they've effectively expanded their coalition of voters over and above Labour's.

Main thing I'm now interested in watching is that if that poll plays out, whether the NIP votes exceed the vote gap.

It would obviously be disastrous if Labour lost the seat and there's no spinning that, but the by-election is likely to have very low turnout compared to a General Election (and indeed one reason to distrust that constituency poll is that so many of a supposedly representative sample of voters believe they will vote) so nobody will be expanding their raw voter numbers here. It would, however, be a sign that Tory enthusiasm/get out the vote operation is better at the very least.
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steve201
post Apr 6 2021, 09:59 PM
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Looks like that bloody Corbyn is now costing Labour seats it won twice under his leadership
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Brett-Butler
post Apr 8 2021, 07:07 PM
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There are SIXTEEN candidates running in the Hartlepool by-election, the most for a by-election in a long time I believe:

SDP - David Bettney
Monster Raving Loony - The Incredible Flying Brick
North East - Hilton Dawson
Women's Equality - Gemma Evans
Green - Rachel Featherstone
Independent - Adam Gaines
Liberal Democrats - Andrew Hagon
Freedom Alliance - Steve Jack
No description - Chris Killick
Independent - Sam Lee
Heritage Party (UK) - Claire Martin
Conservative - Jill Mortimer
Reform UK - John Prescott (not that one)
Independent - Thelma Walker
Independent - W. Ralph Ward-Jackson
Labour - Paul Williams

The party with the racist acronym failed to fill in their paperwork correctly, so Thelma Walker is listed as an Independent on the ballot. Quite a few parties taking part in their first by-election, like the North East Party, Freedom Alliance (an anti-lockdown party), and the Brexit continuity party, Reform UK.
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steve201
post Apr 8 2021, 07:18 PM
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Is the SDP the party formed in 1981?
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Brett-Butler
post Apr 8 2021, 07:20 PM
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QUOTE(steve201 @ Apr 8 2021, 08:18 PM) *
Is the SDP the party formed in 1981?


It's their continuity version that kept going after the Liberal-SDP merger. They had a boost in their membership circa-2019, where a lot of "weird Catholic Twitter" ended up joining them, but the majority of them left by the end of the year due to introducing some policies that were viewed as anti-Semitic and anti-Islamic. Quite a lot of ex-Ukippers now make up the party.
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steve201
post Apr 8 2021, 09:27 PM
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What a strange turn for them lol, must be so small that any group can influence if they join.
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Iz 💀
post Apr 9 2021, 02:55 AM
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Shame that Northern Independence couldn't make it on (I'd imagine that most would think of a short version of 'nipple' before a dated racial slur but it might be wise for them to address that, maybe just their Twitter handle - Free North Now - would be better, FNN doesn't have any bad connotations). As far as I can understand by browsing Twitter their original application was rejected on a minor technical omission in their party constitution and they resubmitted the same day they were informed but too late. That will probably cost them their deposit having to refer to Walker as 'an independent backed by the Northern Independence Party' though I'd still think she has a good chance of coming third.

This is a good article I've read that matches my thoughts on why I am taking them seriously as a prospect for now even though I acknowledge that at the moment they have some things to take care of, like filling in forms correctly: https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/20...party-seriously. There's a lot of historical Labour practices towards the north that are not currently in the party's platform and are in the kind of ideas that Northern Independence are advocating.

Wouldn't call them amateurish though, surely a good part of their appeal is their ability to use rhetoric outside of the box and liven up politics, anyone chastising them for their lack of formality is missing a lot of the point of political disengagement by many voters.
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