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BuzzJack Music Forum _ UK Charts _ Adele pre-release predictions

Posted by: danG Oct 13 2019, 11:11 AM

A new Adele single and album will be coming very shortly but what kind of numbers do we think will they do based on her name power?

'Hello' opened on 330k (including 295k downloads) back in 2015 with opening Spotify figures of 547,875 (a record for the time - and peaked later on 765,449). The album '25' did even better opening on 803k.

Considering the collapse of downloads and albums sales I can't see her quite matching those sales figures this time around although I suspect she'll easily be able to do well over a million Spotify streams now.

I'll predict for now (subject to change once we've heard the song of course)

Singles Sales: 200k
First Day Streams: 1.2m
Albums Sales: 400k (really not sure on this though!)

Posted by: Cqmerqn Oct 13 2019, 11:22 AM

Single sales: 236k
First day streams: 1.5m
Album sales: 550k

Posted by: dobbo Oct 13 2019, 11:23 AM

Everyone thought those numbers were impossible in 2015 so I wouldn't write her off beating all those totals.

From a personal standpoint, let me get back in my underground bunker for a few months until Storm Adele IV blows over nocheer.gif

Posted by: Frenchie Oct 13 2019, 11:28 AM

Single sales: 100k
First day streams: 1.5m
Album sales: 500k

So hard to predict the single sales cause of low downloads, but I do think the streams will be huge.

Posted by: Cqmerqn Oct 13 2019, 11:32 AM

QUOTE(Frenchie @ Oct 13 2019, 12:28 PM) *
Single sales: 100k
First day streams: 1.5m
Album sales: 500k

So hard to predict the single sales cause of low downloads, but I do think the streams will be huge.

With streams like that id be surprised if she only managed 100k!

Posted by: Frenchie Oct 13 2019, 11:40 AM

QUOTE(Cqmerqn @ Oct 13 2019, 12:32 PM) *
With streams like that id be surprised if she only managed 100k!


I'm not so sure. If the streams stay high all week and she reaches 10 million, that's only around 65-70,000 sales if my calculations are correct. So she would have to get 30,000 downloads which I'm not sure is gonna happen seeing as recently the number 1 song has been struggling to even reach 10k.

Posted by: danG Oct 13 2019, 11:46 AM

She'll also have a good chunk of streams from Apple Music plus if she drops a video her YouTube streams will be massive.
Could easily see her doing 30k downloads too, I suspect she still has quite a few fans who haven't switched to streaming yet.

Posted by: Jonjo Oct 13 2019, 11:48 AM

100k-150k
800k-1m
200k-300k

Posted by: gavindeejay Oct 13 2019, 11:51 AM

First week sales Iíll say between 100-150k probably about the 120 mark to be exact.
First day Spotify 1.4million
Album sales 300-400k and sales to stay above 200k until after Christmas

Posted by: Frenchie Oct 13 2019, 11:52 AM

QUOTE(danG @ Oct 13 2019, 12:46 PM) *
She'll also have a good chunk of streams from Apple Music plus if she drops a video her YouTube streams will be massive.
Could easily see her doing 30k downloads too, I suspect she still has quite a few fans who haven't switched to streaming yet.


Oh yeah I always forget about YouTube. But I'm still not sure she will exceed 150k. Will be a good test to see if iTunes really is dead!

Posted by: 777666jason Oct 13 2019, 11:54 AM

Either way she will likely be huge compared to everything else but will actually do adele (no one else to really compare her to laugh.gif ) numbers again , i would have expected eds new one to be way past double platinum (after divides success) by now buts its still got a long way to go, at least she has the not been in peoples faces for 5 years factor on her side

Posted by: Jordan Lee Oct 13 2019, 12:03 PM

I could see her maybe doing 40-50K on pure sales with a further 100-125K from streaming sites. with the single.

First day streams maybe just over the million mark.

Then the album I think will cross 500,000K but itís harder to predict the sales / streams divide of the album as I donít know if itíll be on streaming sites straight away. If it is maybe 575-600K with added streaming sales. I imagine itíll break records for views on YouTube too.

Itís so hard to predict though because she could easily exceed. With Adele I think a lot of her fans are still physical buyers but sheís also pretty big on streaming sites too.

Posted by: jimwatts Oct 13 2019, 12:33 PM

Singles 100-150k - at the most 30-40k on downloads
Streams 1-1.2m as a wild guess
Albums 200-300k, but could be higher if closer to Christmas - a lot of people will be getting it as a present and can see it passing 750k by then which should guarantee it as the year's top seller.

Posted by: lewistgreen Oct 13 2019, 12:41 PM

People predicting more than 1.4m million streams in its first day laugh.gif Worldwide maybe yeah but not solely here in the UK!

Posted by: slowdown73 Oct 13 2019, 01:01 PM

Singles: 150k max
Album: 250k max


Posted by: Bjork Oct 13 2019, 01:01 PM

for comparison, I just checked and Shape of you opened with 1,280,000 streams in the UK on day 1

Posted by: lewistgreen Oct 13 2019, 01:06 PM

QUOTE(Bjork @ Oct 13 2019, 02:01 PM) *
for comparison, I just checked and Shape of you opened with 1,280,000 downloads in the UK on day 1


I'm sorry? It sold over a million copies on its first day? That's not right.. The OCC confirmed it sold 787,000 downloads at the end of 2017... did you mean streams?

Posted by: Bjork Oct 13 2019, 01:07 PM

sorry meant streams biggrin.gif

Posted by: ___∆___ Oct 13 2019, 01:40 PM

From a Music Week article today - updated sales for 21.

QUOTE
Adeleís 21 (XL Recordings) has sales of 5,162,672, according to the Official Charts Company.

Posted by: vidcapper Oct 13 2019, 02:09 PM

Album - instant platinum, and YTD #1 in 2 weeks.

Posted by: Cqmerqn Oct 13 2019, 03:43 PM

QUOTE(lewistgreen @ Oct 13 2019, 01:41 PM) *
People predicting more than 1.4m million streams in its first day laugh.gif Worldwide maybe yeah but not solely here in the UK!

I wouldnít say itís *too* unreasonable, Ed & Justin did 1.1m (I think), so maybe Adele can match that or do even better and reach the 1.4m+ mark!

Posted by: Steve201 Oct 13 2019, 04:15 PM

I get the feeling that her last era was her peak but as ever it depends entirely on the song. Poor or more of the same and it'll get 2 weeks top of the charts but a great return and it could be Xmas no1!!

The album will perform well not matter what as it's November but first week figures should be around 300-400k at least!

Posted by: Bjork Oct 13 2019, 04:16 PM

just checked and I Don't Care did 1,180,436 streams on day 1, so sure Adele can also go over 1 mil

Posted by: soundseekerz Oct 15 2019, 11:09 PM


Single sales: 150K
First day streams: 550K
Album sales: 300K

Posted by: Trick Or Queef! Oct 15 2019, 11:16 PM

How do you know they are coming? I see no rumbling water in my cup signalling the return of the QUEEN POP JUGGERNAUT T REX OF MUSIC!!! Sooo I doubt it's happening yet.

Posted by: Wall Oct 16 2019, 12:48 AM

Surely Adele will open with 300,000+ for album?

Posted by: Charis Oct 16 2019, 07:25 AM

does she have a new album? when?

Posted by: vidcapper Oct 16 2019, 08:41 AM

QUOTE(Trick Or Queef! @ Oct 16 2019, 12:16 AM) *
How do you know they are coming? I see no rumbling water in my cup signalling the return of the QUEEN POP JUGGERNAUT T REX OF MUSIC!!! Sooo I doubt it's happening yet.


https://www.capitalfm.com/artists/adele/new-song-2019-album/

Posted by: Trick Or Queef! Oct 16 2019, 10:06 AM

Rumours.

Posted by: vidcapper Oct 16 2019, 10:08 AM

QUOTE(Trick Or Queef! @ Oct 16 2019, 11:06 AM) *
Rumours.


No, that would be Fleetwood Mac... laugh.gif

Posted by: Bjork Oct 16 2019, 10:13 AM

and now Nicki Minaj posted she's featured :/ cancels imaginary preorder biggrin.gif

Posted by: Trick Or Queef! Oct 16 2019, 10:16 AM

Nicki always trolls. She's retired anyway.

Posted by: Bjork Oct 16 2019, 10:19 AM

if only she retires for good, we can only wish

Posted by: Tawdry Hepburn Oct 16 2019, 10:23 AM

I think 350k for the album, and 140k for the single (first week).

Posted by: Brit Oct 17 2019, 09:10 AM

Iím gunna say 200k for the single and 500k for the album

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