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| Adele pre-release predictions |
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  Oct 13 2019, 11:11 AM
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#1
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 🔥🚀🔥
Joined: 30 August 2010
Posts: 74,539 User: 11,746 
              
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A new Adele single and album will be coming very shortly but what kind of numbers do we think will they do based on her name power?
'Hello' opened on 330k (including 295k downloads) back in 2015 with opening Spotify figures of 547,875 (a record for the time - and peaked later on 765,449). The album '25' did even better opening on 803k. Considering the collapse of downloads and albums sales I can't see her quite matching those sales figures this time around although I suspect she'll easily be able to do well over a million Spotify streams now. I'll predict for now (subject to change once we've heard the song of course) Singles Sales: 200k First Day Streams: 1.2m Albums Sales: 400k (really not sure on this though!) |
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Oct 13 2019, 11:22 AM
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#2
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 BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 10 April 2016
Posts: 27,025 User: 23,155     
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Single sales: 236k
First day streams: 1.5m Album sales: 550k |
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Oct 13 2019, 11:23 AM
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#3
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 BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 4 November 2013
Posts: 30,513 User: 20,053
  
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Everyone thought those numbers were impossible in 2015 so I wouldn't write her off beating all those totals.
From a personal standpoint, let me get back in my underground bunker for a few months until Storm Adele IV blows over 
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Oct 13 2019, 11:28 AM
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#4
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BuzzJack Gold Member
Pronouns: he/him
Joined: 13 May 2018 Posts: 2,321 User: 72,030
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Single sales: 100k
First day streams: 1.5m Album sales: 500k So hard to predict the single sales cause of low downloads, but I do think the streams will be huge. |
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Oct 13 2019, 11:32 AM
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#5
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 10 April 2016
Posts: 27,025 User: 23,155
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QUOTE(Frenchie @ Oct 13 2019, 12:28 PM)  Single sales: 100k First day streams: 1.5m Album sales: 500k So hard to predict the single sales cause of low downloads, but I do think the streams will be huge. With streams like that id be surprised if she only managed 100k! |
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Oct 13 2019, 11:40 AM
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#6
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BuzzJack Gold Member
Pronouns: he/him
Joined: 13 May 2018 Posts: 2,321 User: 72,030
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QUOTE(Cqmerqn @ Oct 13 2019, 12:32 PM) With streams like that id be surprised if she only managed 100k! I'm not so sure. If the streams stay high all week and she reaches 10 million, that's only around 65-70,000 sales if my calculations are correct. So she would have to get 30,000 downloads which I'm not sure is gonna happen seeing as recently the number 1 song has been struggling to even reach 10k. |
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Oct 13 2019, 11:46 AM
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#7
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🔥🚀🔥
Joined: 30 August 2010
Posts: 74,539 User: 11,746
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She'll also have a good chunk of streams from Apple Music plus if she drops a video her YouTube streams will be massive.
Could easily see her doing 30k downloads too, I suspect she still has quite a few fans who haven't switched to streaming yet. |
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Oct 13 2019, 11:48 AM
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#8
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 I found the love, I found the love in me
Pronouns: He/Him
Joined: 13 December 2007 Posts: 87,432 User: 5,042
  
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100k-150k
800k-1m 200k-300k |
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Oct 13 2019, 11:51 AM
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#9
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Why do today, what you can do tomorrow?
Joined: 7 November 2008
Posts: 10,466 User: 7,645
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First week sales I’ll say between 100-150k probably about the 120 mark to be exact.
First day Spotify 1.4million Album sales 300-400k and sales to stay above 200k until after Christmas This post has been edited by gavindeejay: Oct 13 2019, 11:52 AM |
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Oct 13 2019, 11:52 AM
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#10
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BuzzJack Gold Member
Pronouns: he/him
Joined: 13 May 2018 Posts: 2,321 User: 72,030
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QUOTE(danG @ Oct 13 2019, 12:46 PM) She'll also have a good chunk of streams from Apple Music plus if she drops a video her YouTube streams will be massive. Could easily see her doing 30k downloads too, I suspect she still has quite a few fans who haven't switched to streaming yet. Oh yeah I always forget about YouTube. But I'm still not sure she will exceed 150k. Will be a good test to see if iTunes really is dead! |
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Oct 13 2019, 11:54 AM
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#11
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BuzzJack Gold Member
Joined: 21 November 2015
Posts: 4,450 User: 22,687
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Either way she will likely be huge compared to everything else but will actually do adele (no one else to really compare her to
 ) numbers again , i would have expected eds new one to be way past double platinum (after divides success) by now buts its still got a long way to go, at least she has the not been in peoples faces for 5 years factor on her side
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Oct 13 2019, 12:03 PM
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#12
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Jord
Joined: 12 March 2017
Posts: 10,760 User: 27,116
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I could see her maybe doing 40-50K on pure sales with a further 100-125K from streaming sites. with the single.
First day streams maybe just over the million mark. Then the album I think will cross 500,000K but it’s harder to predict the sales / streams divide of the album as I don’t know if it’ll be on streaming sites straight away. If it is maybe 575-600K with added streaming sales. I imagine it’ll break records for views on YouTube too. It’s so hard to predict though because she could easily exceed. With Adele I think a lot of her fans are still physical buyers but she’s also pretty big on streaming sites too. This post has been edited by Jordan Lee: Oct 13 2019, 12:09 PM |
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Oct 13 2019, 12:33 PM
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#13
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This custom member title has been edited by jimwatts
Joined: 28 August 2017
Posts: 10,666 User: 38,591
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Singles 100-150k - at the most 30-40k on downloads
Streams 1-1.2m as a wild guess Albums 200-300k, but could be higher if closer to Christmas - a lot of people will be getting it as a present and can see it passing 750k by then which should guarantee it as the year's top seller. |
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Oct 13 2019, 12:41 PM
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#14
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BuzzJack Legend
Pronouns: he/him
Joined: 25 July 2013 Posts: 26,008 User: 19,585
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People predicting more than 1.4m million streams in its first day
Worldwide maybe yeah but not solely here in the UK!
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Oct 13 2019, 01:01 PM
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#15
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BuzzJack Platinum Member
Joined: 3 August 2006
Posts: 8,209 User: 1,031
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Singles: 150k max
Album: 250k max |
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Oct 13 2019, 01:01 PM
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#16
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 13 November 2015
Posts: 33,187 User: 22,665
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for comparison, I just checked and Shape of you opened with 1,280,000 streams in the UK on day 1
This post has been edited by Bjork: Oct 13 2019, 01:07 PM |
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Oct 13 2019, 01:06 PM
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#17
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BuzzJack Legend
Pronouns: he/him
Joined: 25 July 2013 Posts: 26,008 User: 19,585
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QUOTE(Bjork @ Oct 13 2019, 02:01 PM) for comparison, I just checked and Shape of you opened with 1,280,000 downloads in the UK on day 1 I'm sorry? It sold over a million copies on its first day? That's not right.. The OCC confirmed it sold 787,000 downloads at the end of 2017... did you mean streams? |
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Oct 13 2019, 01:07 PM
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#18
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 13 November 2015
Posts: 33,187 User: 22,665
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sorry meant streams
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Oct 13 2019, 01:40 PM
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#19
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 25 March 2007
Posts: 21,285 User: 3,155
 
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From a Music Week article today - updated sales for 21.
QUOTE Adele’s 21 (XL Recordings) has sales of 5,162,672, according to the Official Charts Company.
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Oct 13 2019, 02:09 PM
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#20
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Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364
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Album - instant platinum, and YTD #1 in 2 weeks.
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