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> OPINION POLLS 2019-2024, This thread is 'oven-ready' for the latest polls.
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Doctor Blind
post Mar 4 2021, 10:03 PM
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QUOTE(blacksquare @ Mar 3 2021, 11:30 AM) *
How high do we think they'll get when the vaccine boost is actually felt this summer and everything reopens?


I think there is probably a ceiling at around 50%, that's as high as it got during March 2020 - likewise there is a floor of around 40% at the moment.

You think that's depressing? The boundary review that will be implemented before the next GE will make it even more favourable for the Conservatives. I've just resigned myself to the fact that they will be in power until at least 2029 now. sad.gif
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Steve201
post Mar 4 2021, 10:25 PM
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Imagine a party in power from 2010-2030 nearly? Every time there’s a Labour government even a long running one they always end up out of power for a generation afterwards - the tories and their allies in the media are so good at convincing the average idiot working and middle classes that their gains produced are a problem for the country as a hole.
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Iz 🌟
post Mar 5 2021, 02:38 AM
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Electoral Calculus puts the following on that poll:
Tories - 371
Labour - 195
Lib Dems - 5
Greens - 1
SNP - 56
Plaid - 4
NI - 18

which is really quite grim, to be potentially in the ballpark of doing worse than 2019. I've even seen a little bit of talk about an early election which at the moment would not be good, there's nothing from Labour to sell what sort of government they'd have in place of the current one, this may just be a vaccine bounce but Labour have let the narrative get away from them, they're coasting and they're just making it harder on themselves to bring it back as recovery sets in.

Labour need to imagine what a Conservative opposition would be doing with 130,000 dead and at least try to have some of the ferocity that oppositionTories obviously would have.
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Envoirment
post Mar 5 2021, 06:55 PM
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QUOTE(Iz 💀 @ Mar 5 2021, 02:38 AM) *
I've even seen a little bit of talk about an early election which at the moment would not be good, there's nothing from Labour to sell what sort of government they'd have in place of the current one, this may just be a vaccine bounce but Labour have let the narrative get away from them, they're coasting and they're just making it harder on themselves to bring it back as recovery sets in.

Labour need to imagine what a Conservative opposition would be doing with 130,000 dead and at least try to have some of the ferocity that oppositionTories obviously would have.


I agree. I don't see them doing much over the next few months though really. They should have their eyes set for later this year once the vaccine rollout/restriction easing bump for the tories begins to wane and the reality of the next budget starts to make itself known.
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Rooney
post Mar 5 2021, 07:30 PM
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Are people confused that we're still in the midst of a bloody pandemic? wacko.gif Starmer and Labour have been relegated to zoom calls whilst the Government plod on the media at 5pm everyday off the back of a successful vaccine rollout, Brexit delivered and a half decent budget. It's hard to do politics. Personally while I do think Starmer could have done more, he's stopped the rot from the previous election result of 2019. I think if memory serves me right his personal approval ratings are higher than Labour, so that's a really solid base to work from in the future. It's always going to be a tricky way back, but the election is three years away and not next week. Just got to grin and bare this for a while, probably 6 months or so. If it's still the same in 2023 then we have a major problem, I totally agree. Personally i think the Tories would be a bit mad to call an early election and any sign that they call for one shows to me that they know the economy is going to be well and truly fukkkked.
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Iz 🌟
post Mar 23 2021, 03:54 PM
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as protests are on the verge of being outlawed, with young people are losing their jobs, the public might turn to a leader of the opposition to rally those disaffected by the government under their banner, to promise a political movement to fight strongly for freedom of expression even when against state interests, to invest in the younger generation, to offer ideas, to give hope for change, to focus energy so that 'those who make peaceful revolution impossible make violent action inevitable' is less of an inevitability as there is reason to invest in the system for those currently left outside of it.



probably not this LOTO though
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Steve201
post Mar 23 2021, 08:23 PM
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I want Starmer to win even as a Corybn supporter as a Labour governments better than a Tory one, that’s the difference in the two groups!
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Rooney
post Mar 23 2021, 09:09 PM
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As I said before in my above post, these polls don't really tell us much. The Tories are front page of the media everyday off the back of a successful vaccination programme. We're seeing exactly the same trends in Scotland too, support for the SNP has increased in the polls (at least in 2020) which will largely be down to Sturgeon being on TV every day. People already have a rod up Starmer's backside as he is playing to the moderates, the election is in 2024, the people whose vote matter in these elections unfortunately don't care what happens now. I totally agree Starmer is probably taking some votes for granted, but anyone who decides to vote against Labour in a marginal needs their head scratching if they really claim to hate Tories as much as they say they do.

Labour were always likely to take a battering in the May elections and I don't think Corbyn would have prevented that, he may have even made it worse, who knows. I agree losing the by-election in Hartlepool would be a bit of a blow, but that's not happened yet.
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Doctor Blind
post Mar 23 2021, 09:35 PM
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I think that it's unlikely Labour will lose the by-election in Hartlepool, I appreciate this is the wrong thread to discuss this but seems relevant at the moment. It'll likely be close but the fact that the candidate for Labour is a doctor will be deliberately accentuated and played up at every opportunity to make the most of the successful vaccine rollout and general good will toward the NHS right now. They will also massively downplay and ignore the fact that he's a remainer, advocated for a second referendum etc. given that the constituency is like 70% for Leave. Amazing that Labour held on in 2019 tbh.

The fact that he's an apologist for the brutal and frankly disgusting Saudi dictatorship (after recieving paid trips out there) means I can't support him personally but yeah, probably win won't he?

Also Iz, are you quoting Ash Sarkar (quoting JFK) there? *.* We stan.
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Iz 🌟
post Mar 24 2021, 01:58 AM
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QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Mar 23 2021, 09:35 PM) *
I think that it's unlikely Labour will lose the by-election in Hartlepool, I appreciate this is the wrong thread to discuss this but seems relevant at the moment. It'll likely be close but the fact that the candidate for Labour is a doctor will be deliberately accentuated and played up at every opportunity to make the most of the successful vaccine rollout and general good will toward the NHS right now. They will also massively downplay and ignore the fact that he's a remainer, advocated for a second referendum etc. given that the constituency is like 70% for Leave. Amazing that Labour held on in 2019 tbh.

The fact that he's an apologist for the brutal and frankly disgusting Saudi dictatorship (after recieving paid trips out there) means I can't support him personally but yeah, probably win won't he?

Also Iz, are you quoting Ash Sarkar (quoting JFK) there? *.* We stan.


Aye, I saw her post about it (to be met with Jeremy Vine asserting that loss of the right to protest isn't really a big deal :/) and I have been seeing that quote about the place a bit as the Bill moves through Parliament. It's a really significant one and it's astounding that the only public voices fully against it are the left-wing ones, so many self-described liberals are keeping rather silent here to focus instead on flag etiquette or something.

I think putting those Starmer ratings alongside other ratings like the one below show that there is a malaise with Starmer that isn't just to do with the spur of the moment vaccine bounce or anything short-term like that. He started losing people around last October, which also happens to be when he made his party look divided by booting out the former leader.



Hartlepool I think will be a very significant test. Labour can't really hold the threat of the Tories over people's heads like a centrist Labour would at election-time, the Tories are already in government and one more or less MP is not going to change the balance. And the candidate they've put up is so dodgy in all the worst ways that people are accusing the current Labour leadership of, including of course, being selected without a process. The fact he's a doctor is possibly the only redeeming quality that could swing some votes who wouldn't vote Labour otherwise. But for the most part, time to see how tradtionally Labour these votes really are, or if Starmer has turned the party into a milquetoast barrel of nothing.

We are approaching the point where even my analytical side is starting to consider that Long-Bailey might be doing better. At least she might have offered an alternative narrative in the past 11 months.
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blacksquare
post Mar 25 2021, 11:09 AM
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QUOTE(Iz 💀 @ Mar 23 2021, 04:54 PM) *

QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Mar 23 2021, 10:35 PM) *
I think that it's unlikely Labour will lose the by-election in Hartlepool, I appreciate this is the wrong thread to discuss this but seems relevant at the moment. It'll likely be close but the fact that the candidate for Labour is a doctor will be deliberately accentuated and played up at every opportunity to make the most of the successful vaccine rollout and general good will toward the NHS right now. They will also massively downplay and ignore the fact that he's a remainer, advocated for a second referendum etc. given that the constituency is like 70% for Leave. Amazing that Labour held on in 2019 tbh.

The fact that he's an apologist for the brutal and frankly disgusting Saudi dictatorship (after recieving paid trips out there) means I can't support him personally but yeah, probably win won't he?




I'm really not convinced Hartlepool is in the bag tbh

The most worrying thing to me about the current polling is how Starmer has been semi-protected by the press so far — that isn't going to be the case the closer we get to the election.
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Steve201
post Mar 25 2021, 01:21 PM
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I think Starmer is one of those people who looks longer term like 2024 not 2021 and is happy to go along until then. His past in the CPS and cases he dealt with has shown that. It also shows he fights for rights on both sides of any arguement but thats another debate.

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Iz 🌟
post Mar 31 2021, 08:54 AM
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Red Wall poll and details in a rather interesting Twitter thread.

Outside of already expressed woes about Starmer's favourability going down, lack of clarity and (frustratingly) people thinking he's played party politics too much meaning he might as well have gone ahead and actually played them, interesting how the Tory budget has gone down well and also interesting on Tory weaknesses though, nurses' pay might be a sticking point for them.
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Anita Hanjaab
post Mar 31 2021, 10:35 AM
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Centrism is dead, and Stqrmer made the mistake of not pointing out Tory corruption during the pandemic, or why it showd we need a strong, not privatised, nhs. The good news is when compliant opposition Starmer does terribly even with media apathy, the left should be back.
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Iz 🌟
post Mar 31 2021, 10:52 AM
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This is an improvement in the Red Wall from the 2019 election, but it was only ever going to go up.

Thing is, local elections were bad for Labour last time as they were before the height of Corbynism, so there might even be gains. But no media is championing Labour, disappearing from the conversation is, unsurprisingly, bad for electoral prospects.
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Rooney
post Mar 31 2021, 11:08 AM
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QUOTE(Dill Doe @ Mar 31 2021, 11:35 AM) *
Centrism is dead, and Stqrmer made the mistake of not pointing out Tory corruption during the pandemic, or why it showd we need a strong, not privatised, nhs. The good news is when compliant opposition Starmer does terribly even with media apathy, the left should be back.


The (hard)left is gone, I think the sooner activists (people who are really engaged in politics) realise the lines of politics are so blurred post Brexit then the sooner we will kick The Tories out. Some people who might be Centre-Right might vote for Labour and people who are Centre-Left might actually vote for the Tories. Just because Starmer doesn't come out with progressive ideas that activists want him to come and say, doesn't mean they won't happen. You won't hear the Tories shouting about privitising parts of the NHS, but will it happen? You betcha.

Steve hit the nail on the head earlier - Starmer is focusing on 2024 and quite rightly. I doubt Labour will win the election in 2024 due to the battering in 2019, but it might make things harder for the Tories in the next term. The average voter (who decide elections) won't remember what is happening now in three years time with regards to Party Politics. Of course engaged activists will and you run the risk of losing their votes of course, but like I have always said, a large majority of these people just label anyone who has a different view to them as a Tory and if they decide to vote some independent party in a swing seat then they clearly don't hate the Tories as much as they claim.

The Twitter thread is quite interesting, some interesting tidbits in there. No surprise the vaccine bounce has led to a bigger surge of Tory voters. The concern would be in the Tories manage to ride off this boost. This is undoubtedly having an impact on switchers and undecided voters. Unfortunately as a country, we are very socially conservative in the main and this current situation suits the Tories down to an absolute glove.
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Iz 🌟
post Mar 31 2021, 11:28 AM
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At the moment, it's the job of these activists to convince Starmer that their policies are worth exploring in a Labour government, floating their ideas to ensure differentiation, for all the talk on how we are socially conservative, that's principally one aging cohort. Labour needs to get the right messaging, get their name out there as a driver for positive change, something that inspires people to consider them better on the issues AND change the issues that are important, the current ones are indeed all very Tory-favourable. Proactive not reactive. That's how the right changed this country from 2015-2019, and how the left would have if the right hadn't outnumbered them.

Starmer's just too reactive. 2022 is going to be the important year for him to make a mark, I don't think he can wait until 2024, perceptions tend to stick if not challenged.
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Rooney
post Mar 31 2021, 12:03 PM
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QUOTE(Iz 💀 @ Mar 31 2021, 12:28 PM) *
At the moment, it's the job of these activists to convince Starmer that their policies are worth exploring in a Labour government, floating their ideas to ensure differentiation, for all the talk on how we are socially conservative, that's principally one aging cohort. Labour needs to get the right messaging, get their name out there as a driver for positive change, something that inspires people to consider them better on the issues AND change the issues that are important, the current ones are indeed all very Tory-favourable. Proactive not reactive. That's how the right changed this country from 2015-2019, and how the left would have if the right hadn't outnumbered them.

Starmer's just too reactive. 2022 is going to be the important year for him to make a mark, I don't think he can wait until 2024, perceptions tend to stick if not challenged.


The problem is Iz, a lot of these things are just pie in the sky and not helped by voting boundaries. Ideally you'd want some of the more progressive votes split around the country from the cities, but that's only going to get worse if anything. Britain as a country has always been largely socially conservative, I've said it before but I'm not convinced how much social change is actually wanted by voters. Labour need to win back the swing voters, it's clear there are tons of votes up for grabs but they're not going to win them back by deciding we now want nationalised post offices (as an example).

My views are Starmer is working towards mid-2022 and 2023 as his turning point, right now it's tredding water but I'm not sure a different Labour leader would have done any better (I'm mildly confident they would have done worse). There are shitloads of problems with Labour which are not going to be solved overnight, just look at the situation in Liverpool. It's put Labour in an incredibly awkward situation. I'm sure they will get battered in the local elections. But longer term, I'm not sure that matters too much as local councillors are bloody useless, more interested in ego boosting rather than actually using local taxes to good use.
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Envoirment
post Mar 31 2021, 06:13 PM
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QUOTE(Iz 💀 @ Mar 31 2021, 09:54 AM) *


Red Wall poll and details in a rather interesting Twitter thread.

Outside of already expressed woes about Starmer's favourability going down, lack of clarity and (frustratingly) people thinking he's played party politics too much meaning he might as well have gone ahead and actually played them, interesting how the Tory budget has gone down well and also interesting on Tory weaknesses though, nurses' pay might be a sticking point for them.


Interesting. I do wonder how it will look in a year's time once the vaccine rollout boost has faded/furlough ends and we get the next budget. The next budget will be the one where budget cuts/tax hikes etc will be most prevelant and I am very sure it will not be a popular budget. Especially if the cuts and tax increases disproportionally affect the poorer in society - which given the current government will be almost guarenteed.

Keir Starmer will need to push the government hard over the next budget and be very proactive in his opposition to it.


This post has been edited by Envoirment: Mar 31 2021, 06:14 PM
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Iz 🌟
post Apr 1 2021, 05:13 AM
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What is social conservatism though (and I don't mean a euphemism for racism)? Because Britain is very socially liberal on LGBT rights and racism, at least on policy (and though it's an all-or-nothing thing really and that's why the other topic on race exists, this is supported by more people than not in the country) and it just keeps getting more liberal no matter who's in government, the swing voters who disagreed with that in the North were those already voting Conservative, they aren't the swing voters to win back. There's this myth of the old white working class northerner who's racist and wants a 1950s white Britain and has Valid Concerns™ about the "Woke Brigade" and I see no evidence that that sort of person really exists in large numbers, those that do are retired and ever shrinking in number. The working-class is a lot more socially left and on board with at least identity rights and multiculturalism, many of them indeed ARE from different ethnic backgrounds.

Britain may well be socially conservative in some aspects, like family-oriented, against immigration, maybe harsher punishments on crime, but those are policy-specific and going to be complex, I reckon most of the pro-immigration votes will be in Labour's base already. And anti-immigration is only an issue that tends to be on the conservative side of things because of conservative pro-business actions that make threats to jobs a reality, which is fixed (by a pro-immigration party) through investment, not through a party campaigning to be regressive on who we let in. i.e. Immigration is only an issue because of the material realities of Britain that can be changed by a party willing to frame an argument around investment - which, to the Tories' credit, the whole 'levelling Britain up' thing is the sort of rhetoric that would be useful here.

I don't buy that Labour has to be doing a 'suck it up... we're just going to have to get more racist' strategy, that's a dark road to be going.

And given that Starmer already has from this poll, a bad poll for him, lots of the Red Wall seats back under his cap, it's not like Labour doesn't have a shot at the next election, it's not an insurmountable mountain. Saying that 2024 is lost because of 2019 is making excuses for centrist failures... 3 years before the fact. Labour just needs to stand for SOMETHING, not nothing. It's like advertising, you need to be visible, not making the most bland statements possible to not offend anyone.
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