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| Death of Sales |
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 30th June 2015, 09:01 PM
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#1
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 is in hibernation
Joined: 24 August 2014
Posts: 11,385 User: 21,161 
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Will Apple Music now equal the permanent death of download sales? 65% of 'sales' are from streaming now and by the end of the year could that be 80%?
I can see next year being like 2004 in terms of download sales. |
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30th June 2015, 09:24 PM
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#2
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 BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 18 February 2010
Posts: 25,009 User: 10,665
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Perhaps. We'll have to wait and see. I could see Apple Music having anything from a huge impact to just a small initial impact that increases over time.
Streaming will definitely be at 70% at the very least by the end of the year (even without Apple). So I agree that it could be 80% by the end of the year if the Apple streaming site ends up having a big impact. I don't think sales will be 2004 levels as soon as next year though. I think we're probably at around 2008 levels atm, since I remember one of the recent #1s had the lowest sales since Closer by Ne-Yo. So maybe next year we'll be at 2006-2007 levels of sales. This post has been edited by Eric_Blob: 30th June 2015, 09:25 PM |
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30th June 2015, 10:15 PM
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#3
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Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
Posts: 46,151 User: 5,138
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Some sales in the albums may move towards physical copies esp vinyl again.
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30th June 2015, 10:25 PM
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#4
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 BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 18 July 2012
Posts: 22,829 User: 17,376
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week one sales dont really matter anymore, records can still sell a lot of downloads over a long period. In 2004 there were no downloads and records had a limited shelf life, so even in the catastrophic possibility that weekly sales hit 2004 levels overall sales may well still hold up over a longer period. Heaven knows they never leave the chart these days and I can't blame streaming for all of that either
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30th June 2015, 11:06 PM
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#5
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BuzzJack Gold Member
Joined: 18 May 2007
Posts: 3,628 User: 3,429
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I don't think it'll be that quick. We've just had a single do 100k downloads in a week.
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1st July 2015, 12:41 AM
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#6
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BuzzJack Climber
Joined: 22 December 2013
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I think iTunes download sales will continue to collapse and as the Record Industry is only interested in iTunes sales, the figures of what constitute the difference between streams and sales are manipulated to reflect the decline in iTunes sales only. The sales have simply gone somewhere else. The ACTUAL drop in sales for the UK is only 3% compared to this time last year for the singles market.
It simply amazes me every Sunday now when the OCC sales chart is revealed and the combined streaming chart is too, how different the two charts are . But the OCC have filtered out nearly all the continuous streams, from members of the public thus reducing the ability for a record to chart on streams alone. But when it comes down to the OCC sales top 100, as someone who monitors the top 100 charts on iTunes, I can say that chart looks like the iTunes chart for the week. YET it's suppose to incorporate every sales site! We have the likes of Google Play, HMV/7 Digital, Amazon and Sainsbury incorporated in this sales chart apprantley, but most 59p records on iTunes register on the OCC chart, but a number one on Amazon doesn't? But add streaming and a record that enters at 10 on iTunes - from say Chris Brown - is 10 on OCC sales chart, 25 on combined, while on the Amazon chart gets no higher than 60 all week and isn't available all week on the other sites. (I picked Chris Brown because his records do tend to sell better on iTunes than other sites). My point is that streaming pulls the iTunes sales down, but not being available to download on other main sites doesn't. Nor does it seem to make any difference how many copies are in the iTunes chart of the same record. I have seen records do this - say the main copy to be at number 15 on iTunes chart all week. And indeed it does turn up on the OCC chart at 15. Yet the iTunes chart has say 6 more versions of the record scattered below the 15 of the main one. So how come it's at 15 on the OCC? All this proves to me that the OCC chart simply registers certain sales for iTunes and if they fall then streaming is winning. That last statement is what this thread is about. Think on that! |
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1st July 2015, 02:16 AM
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#7
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BuzzJack Climber
Joined: 31 May 2011
Posts: 80 User: 13,921
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Does itunes have the lion's share of the download market? Maybe this is why the OCC sales chart reflects the itunes chart? In the same way I imagine the OCC streaming chart mirrors the Spotify chart?
Back in the physical day, it was rare for a single to enter the top 20 if it was not stocked by Woolworths, particularly between 2000-2005. So whichever format you consider, those who control the market most will have the bigger influence on the official chart. Just my take on things! Sales are falling for two reasons. An increase in streaming is the obvious one, but also because there are a lack of high profile new releases. So far this year it has been common for 3 or 4 weeks to lapse without any real contenders to challenge for no.1. |
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1st July 2015, 03:03 AM
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#8
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 18 February 2010
Posts: 25,009 User: 10,665
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QUOTE(Graham A @ Jul 1 2015, 01:41 AM)  I think iTunes download sales will continue to collapse and as the Record Industry is only interested in iTunes sales, the figures of what constitute the difference between streams and sales are manipulated to reflect the decline in iTunes sales only. The sales have simply gone somewhere else. The ACTUAL drop in sales for the UK is only 3% compared to this time last year for the singles market. It simply amazes me every Sunday now when the OCC sales chart is revealed and the combined streaming chart is too, how different the two charts are . But the OCC have filtered out nearly all the continuous streams, from members of the public thus reducing the ability for a record to chart on streams alone. But when it comes down to the OCC sales top 100, as someone who monitors the top 100 charts on iTunes, I can say that chart looks like the iTunes chart for the week. YET it's suppose to incorporate every sales site! We have the likes of Google Play, HMV/7 Digital, Amazon and Sainsbury incorporated in this sales chart apprantley, but most 59p records on iTunes register on the OCC chart, but a number one on Amazon doesn't? But add streaming and a record that enters at 10 on iTunes - from say Chris Brown - is 10 on OCC sales chart, 25 on combined, while on the Amazon chart gets no higher than 60 all week and isn't available all week on the other sites. (I picked Chris Brown because his records do tend to sell better on iTunes than other sites). My point is that streaming pulls the iTunes sales down, but not being available to download on other main sites doesn't. Nor does it seem to make any difference how many copies are in the iTunes chart of the same record. I have seen records do this - say the main copy to be at number 15 on iTunes chart all week. And indeed it does turn up on the OCC chart at 15. Yet the iTunes chart has say 6 more versions of the record scattered below the 15 of the main one. So how come it's at 15 on the OCC? All this proves to me that the OCC chart simply registers certain sales for iTunes and if they fall then streaming is winning. That last statement is what this thread is about. Think on that! Are you sure you're not getting mixed up with the Big Top 40 Show? That used to only count iTunes.The official chart definitely counts other download sites. We've had cases where songs were not available on iTunes but were available on other sites, and they get a dozen sales or so. We've also had cases where a song hasn't been very high on iTunes but physical sales have propped it up. I think it's just that iTunes has a HUGE share of the overall market, so most of the time the chart looks similar to the iTunes chart (that's why we mainly follow the iTunes chart on this forum and don't bother with the other smaller ones). QUOTE(Iain H @ Jul 1 2015, 03:16 AM) Sales are falling for two reasons. An increase in streaming is the obvious one, but also because there are a lack of high profile new releases. So far this year it has been common for 3 or 4 weeks to lapse without any real contenders to challenge for no.1. I disagree with this. New releases make barely any difference to the overall sales figures each week. I remember late 2013 when sales suddenly started declining a lot of people said stuff like "It's just because there's not big songs out atm", but that's not the case. Last week the sales were 2,516,244 compared to 2,851,548 last year. And that was with two songs selling around 100,000 last week. We could've had FIVE new releases selling around 100,000 and we still would not have matched 2014's sales. It's got very little to do with new releases, the sales of the songs outside the top 40 are much more important for overall sales than the new releases. Sales just really are falling, mainly due to people switching to streaming. You'd need an X Factor single that sells hundreds of thousands released every week of the year to compete with 2014's sales. It's not just down to a lack of new releases. Also, remember a lot of weeks last year they didn't have big new releases either, yet 2014's sales have been higher than 2015's sales, every single time. This post has been edited by Eric_Blob: 1st July 2015, 03:12 AM |
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1st July 2015, 04:37 AM
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#9
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Was the last time sales weren't decreasing in 2012? I remember quite a lot of weeks in 2013 being down on the year before.
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1st July 2015, 04:42 AM
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#10
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 Chart Chat Slave
Joined: 19 March 2006
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QUOTE(Griff @ Jul 1 2015, 06:37 AM) Was the last time sales weren't decreasing in 2012? I remember quite a lot of weeks in 2013 being down on the year before. sales were increasing until the middle of 2013, From July/August 2013 started to decline. |
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1st July 2015, 05:58 AM
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#11
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Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364
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I don't think sales are doomed yet - people will still want copies that they can stick on their iPod. With streaming, you have to always be somewhere close to a wifi point.
Yes, I know you can use your smartphone, but combined with a spotify/iTunes sub, in the long run, that seems a more expensive way of getting music than simply downloading it! |
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1st July 2015, 06:24 AM
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#12
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 🔥🚀🔥
Joined: 30 August 2010
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QUOTE(vidcapper @ Jul 1 2015, 06:58 AM) I don't think sales are doomed yet - people will still want copies that they can stick on their iPod. With streaming, you have to always be somewhere close to a wifi point. Yes, I know you can use your smartphone, but combined with a spotify/iTunes sub, in the long run, that seems a more expensive way of getting music than simply downloading it! not true - you can sync songs to your iPod for offline play. |
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1st July 2015, 12:22 PM
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#13
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BuzzJack Regular
Joined: 9 July 2006
Posts: 238 User: 896
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QUOTE('Dan @ Jul 1 2015, 06:24 AM) not true - you can sync songs to your iPod for offline play. All of a sudden, iPod seems to be an old fashioned word to me....file with cassette. |
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1st July 2015, 12:55 PM
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#14
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They've had the very Tunnocks, Mary
Joined: 13 March 2011
Posts: 5,508 User: 13,208
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This 'death of sales' talk is no less supremely irritating than the very same talks that happened about 10 years ago when downloads first became a thing.
Truth is sales and the desire to physically 'own' a piece of music is part of the UK public's DNA. Trends and new technology will come and go, but tangible sales will always have a factor, however much OCC lasso the streaming ratios in. Look at the resurrection of vinyl in recent years for goodness' sake. And you are all free to quote me from this very thread come 2025 when the Official Charts Company decide that humming and whistling count towards sales data... |
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1st July 2015, 02:15 PM
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#15
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You don't have to be fabulous to be good
Joined: 10 March 2008
Posts: 9,915 User: 5,591
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But the albums are in dire state, no matter how you look into it. In August 2006 albums sales were on 2.4 million copies, now they are on 1.3m, excluding streaming.
The revival of vinyls is due to the fact that vinyls look "fancier" than CDs, so if a person wants a physical copy, some guys are leaning towards vinyls more and more. But their share isn't that big to judge on it about the whole album market. The sales won't be DEAD but I expect them to slump a lot before stagnating somewhere. The question is where is that balance point. |
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1st July 2015, 04:48 PM
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#16
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 18 July 2012
Posts: 22,829 User: 17,376
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album sales are low for a few reasons:
cherry-picking: why buy a whole album if you dont like half the tracks? with downloads you don't have to. In the olden days record companies used to deliberately not release or delete physical tracks to force consumers to buy albums. That's what killed off the single sales as it became only twice the price of a single to buy an album. Record companies to blame. streaming: same as above really. How many times did we buy albums on faith before being able to hear them and finding out they were poor bar 2 singles... people can filter out those albums now bonus tracks a year after release: a short-sighted greedy boost to get people to buy the same albums twice or download them for the same price of an album, when they can't be that good or else there would be a brand new album to flog. record companies are to blame yet again, and consumers have grown wise and dont bother buying the album in the first place now, waiting to see if there's a bonus track edition, and if not then it'll be half price. The urgency to buy new albums is gone to all except core fan groups. |
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1st July 2015, 05:54 PM
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#17
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BuzzJack Idol
Joined: 8 December 2010
Posts: 50,952 User: 12,472
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Not to mention there's rarely any big albums outside of Q4. We were extremely lucky last year to have Ed Sheeran, Sam Smith and George Ezra in the summer (well, I say lucky, a lot will beg to differ!
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1st July 2015, 08:48 PM
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#18
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Yes, it's me.
Joined: 4 November 2009
Posts: 19,813 User: 9,885
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Vinyl sales are a niche market. You wont be getting Megan Trainor selling many copies of her album on vinyl so I wouldn't hold them up as the saviour of sales.
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1st July 2015, 08:51 PM
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#19
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Yes, it's me.
Joined: 4 November 2009
Posts: 19,813 User: 9,885
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I've stopped buying albums altogether - my favourite artists dont even get me to part with my cash any more. I stream them and if I like what I hear I purchase. I didn't bother with the last albums from Tori Amos, Manic Street Preachers, Muse, Bloc Party, Blur, Radiohead, Suede, Orbital, The Prodigy, Kate Bush, The Cure or REM.
This post has been edited by AntoineTTe: 1st July 2015, 08:53 PM |
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2nd July 2015, 01:06 AM
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#20
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BuzzJack Climber
Joined: 31 May 2011
Posts: 80 User: 13,921
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This post has been edited by Iain H: 2nd July 2015, 01:10 AM |
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