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> Estimated chart without ACR, Just out of interest
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JulianT
post Jun 9 2020, 09:30 AM
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I’ve been looking at this and I’ve estimated the Top 50 for each chart this year without ACR and starring out.
I don’t have access to any information other than the OCC charts and what is on this board so some of it is guesswork (for example this week I’m somewhat guessing where Stupid Love would be) but hopefully I’m not too far off.
For ACR songs I’m doubling the estimated totals and taking off an allowance for paid for sales based on sales only positions.

The conclusion? ACR and artist limits are probably good things overall - I tend to think 5 would be a better limit than 3 as it would have avoided absurdities like Ed Sheeran and Lewis Capaldi’s hits progressively starring and de-starring week on week a few months ago. I also think ACR could be phased in over, say,, 4 weeks to make chart runs look less ugly.

W/E 11/6/20 (estimated peaks in brackets):

1 2 Rockstar (1)
2 1 Rain on me (1)
3 3 Blinding lights (1)
4 4 Rover (4)
5 5 Roses (1)
6 8 Toosie slide (2)
7 14 Breaking me (7)
8 7 Death bed (6)
9 - I dunno (9)
10 11 Dinner guest (10)
11 6 Say so (4)
12 9 Dance monkey (1)
13 10 Savage (5)
14 12 Lonely (5)
15 17 Break my heart (7)
16 16 Flowers (16)
17 18 Rain (3)
18 15 Don’t start now (2)
19 23 Don’t need love (19)
20 13 Stuck with u (6)
21 27 Watermelon sugar (21)
22 20 Physical (3)
23 - Sour candy (23)
24 32 Secrets (24)
25 19 Blueberry faygo (10)
26 26 This city (26)
27 24 Someone you loved (1)
28 22 If the world was ending (20)
29 - Stupid love (7)
30 28 Before you go (1)
31 25 Break up song (12)
32 29 Adore you (8)
33 34 Party girl (33)
34 38 Intentions (11)
35 35 Own it (2)
36 - ILY (36)
37 41 Kings and queens (37)
38 36 Tequila (26)
39 44 Better off without you (18)
40 21 Houdini (7)
41 - Alice (41)
42 - Ride it (2)
43 37 Falling (20)
44 30 Gooba (8)
45 43 Supalonely (23)
46 46 Don’t rush (35)
47 42 Boyfriend (13)
48 40 The box (2)
49 - Who’s that what’s that (49)
50 49 Think about things (49)
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Mr. C. Joel
post Jun 9 2020, 12:39 PM
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Thanks for this it’s so interesting how some songs would literally be in the chart for months and months if ACR didn’t exist.

The charts are odd these days, I’d say at least 50/60% is artificial and based on playlists on streaming sites etc...

It’s a shame it isn’t how it used to be as iTunes was literally built up of what people actually wanted to buy and consume rather than clicking into a predetermined playlist.

I guess it’s all just progression though, I wonder what’s next after streaming!
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dan-G
post Jun 9 2020, 12:59 PM
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that's actually not far off what the actual non-ACR chart looks like! as we're not allowed to reveal that chart this will make a fine substitute for the forum, thanks for compiling.
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Maestro
post Jun 9 2020, 01:03 PM
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QUOTE(dan-G @ Jun 9 2020, 01:59 PM) *
that's actually not far off what the actual non-ACR chart looks like! as we're not allowed to reveal that chart this will make a fine substitute for the forum, thanks for compiling.


May I ask why?
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dan-G
post Jun 9 2020, 01:06 PM
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the OCC don't make it public so we could get in trouble if we publicise it.
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Maestro
post Jun 9 2020, 01:08 PM
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QUOTE(dan-G @ Jun 9 2020, 02:06 PM) *
the OCC don't make it public so we could get in trouble if we publicise it.


Ah right, thank you
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chartjack
post Jun 10 2020, 11:51 AM
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It would be interesting to see a full list of what would have been number 1 each week without ACR
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JosephStyles
post Jun 10 2020, 12:35 PM
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QUOTE(chartjack @ Jun 10 2020, 12:51 PM) *
It would be interesting to see a full list of what would have been number 1 each week without ACR


I *think* this is correct. From the week ACR came into effect:

13/07/2017 Luis Fonsi & Daddy Yankee feat. Justin Bieber - Despacito
20/07/2017 Luis Fonsi & Daddy Yankee feat. Justin Bieber - Despacito
13/07/2017 Luis Fonsi & Daddy Yankee feat. Justin Bieber - Despacito
27/07/2017 DJ Khaled feat. Rihanna & Bryson Tiller - Wild Thoughts [Luis Fonsi & Daddy Yankee feat. Justin Bieber - Despacito]
03/08/2017 Luis Fonsi & Daddy Yankee feat. Justin Bieber - Despacito
10/08/2017 Luis Fonsi & Daddy Yankee feat. Justin Bieber - Despacito
17/08/2017 Calvin Harris feat. Pharrell Williams, Katy Perry & Big Sean - Feels [Luis Fonsi & Daddy Yankee feat. Justin Bieber - Despacito]
24/08/2017 Dua Lipa - New Rules [Luis Fonsi & Daddy Yankee feat. Justin Bieber - Despacito]
24/08/2017 Dua Lipa - New Rules
07/09/2017 Taylor Swift - Look What You Made Me Do
14/09/2017 Taylor Swift - Look What You Made Me Do
21/09/2017 Sam Smith - Too Good At Goodbyes
28/09/2017 Sam Smith - Too Good At Goodbyes
05/10/2017 Sam Smith - Too Good At Goodbyes
12/10/2017 Post Malone feat. 21 Savage - rockstar
19/10/2017 Post Malone feat. 21 Savage - rockstar
26/10/2017 Post Malone feat. 21 Savage - rockstar
02/11/2017 Post Malone feat. 21 Savage - rockstar
09/11/2017 Camila Cabello feat. Young Thug - Havana
16/11/2017 Camila Cabello feat. Young Thug - Havana
23/11/2017 Camila Cabello feat. Young Thug - Havana
30/11/2017 Camila Cabello feat. Young Thug - Havana
07/12/2017 Camila Cabello feat. Young Thug - Havana
14/12/2017 Ed Sheeran - Perfect
21/12/2017 Ed Sheeran - Perfect
28/12/2017 Ed Sheeran - Perfect
04/01/2018 Ed Sheeran - Perfect

11/01/2018 Ed Sheeran - Perfect
18/01/2018 Ed Sheeran - Perfect
25/01/2018 Eminem feat. Ed Sheeran - River
01/02/2018 Drake - God's Plan
08/02/2018 Drake - God's Plan
15/02/2018 Drake - God's Plan
22/02/2018 Drake - God's Plan
01/03/2018 Drake - God's Plan
08/03/2018 Drake - God's Plan
15/03/2018 Drake - God's Plan
22/03/2018 Drake - God's Plan
29/03/2018 Drake - God's Plan
05/04/2018 Rudimental feat. Jess Glynne, Macklemore & Dan Caplen - These Days [Drake - God's Plan]
12/04/2018 Lil Dicky feat. Chris Brown - Freaky Friday
19/04/2018 Drake - Nice for What
26/04/2018 Calvin Harris & Dua Lipa - One Kiss
03/05/2018 Calvin Harris & Dua Lipa - One Kiss
10/05/2018 Calvin Harris & Dua Lipa - One Kiss
17/05/2018 Calvin Harris & Dua Lipa - One Kiss
24/05/2018 Calvin Harris & Dua Lipa - One Kiss
31/05/2018 Calvin Harris & Dua Lipa - One Kiss
07/06/2018 Calvin Harris & Dua Lipa - One Kiss
14/06/2018 Calvin Harris & Dua Lipa - One Kiss
21/06/2018 Jess Glynne - I'll Be There [Calvin Harris & Dua Lipa - One Kiss]
28/06/2018 Clean Bandit feat. Demi Lovato - Solo
05/07/2018 George Ezra - Shotgun
12/07/2018 George Ezra - Shotgun
19/07/2018 Baddiel & Skinner & The Lightning Seeds - 3 Lions
26/07/2018 Drake - In My Feelings
01/08/2018 Drake - In My Feelings
09/08/2018 Drake - In My Feelings
16/08/2018 Drake - In My Feelings
23/08/2018 George Ezra - Shotgun
30/08/2018 George Ezra - Shotgun
06/09/2018 benny blanco, Halsey & Khalid - Eastside
13/09/2018 Calvin Harris & Sam Smith - Promises
20/09/2018 Calvin Harris & Sam Smith - Promises
27/09/2018 Calvin Harris & Sam Smith - Promises
04/09/2018 Calvin Harris & Sam Smith - Promises
11/09/2018 Calvin Harris & Sam Smith - Promises
18/10/2018 Dave & Fredo - Funky Friday
25/10/2018 Calvin Harris & Sam Smith - Promises
01/11/2018 Lady Gaga & Bradley Cooper - Shallow
08/11/2018 Lady Gaga & Bradley Cooper - Shallow
15/11/2018 Ariana Grande - thank u, next
22/11/2018 Ariana Grande - thank u, next
29/11/2018 Ariana Grande - thank u, next
06/12/2018 Ariana Grande - thank u, next
13/12/2018 Ariana Grande - thank u, next
20/12/2018 Ariana Grande - thank u, next [Mariah Carey - All I Want for Christmas Is You]
27/12/2018 LadBaby - We Built This City
03/01/2019 Ava Max - Sweet But Psycho [Mariah Carey - All I Want for Christmas Is You]

10/01/2019 Ava Max - Sweet But Psycho
17/01/2019 Ava Max - Sweet But Psycho
24/01/2019 Ava Max - Sweet But Psycho
31/01/2019 Ariana Grande - 7 rings
07/02/2019 Ariana Grande - 7 rings
14/02/2019 Ariana Grande - 7 rings
21/02/2019 Ariana Grande - break up with your girlfriend, i'm bored
28/02/2019 Ariana Grande - 7 rings
07/03/2019 Lewis Capaldi - Someone You Loved
14/03/2019 Lewis Capaldi - Someone You Loved
21/03/2019 Lewis Capaldi - Someone You Loved
28/03/2019 Lewis Capaldi - Someone You Loved
04/04/2019 Lewis Capaldi - Someone You Loved
11/04/2019 Lewis Capaldi - Someone You Loved
18/04/2019 Lewis Capaldi - Someone You Loved
25/04/2019 Lil Nas X - Old Town Road
02/05/2019 Lil Nas X - Old Town Road
09/05/2019 Stormzy - Vossi Bop
16/05/2019 Stormzy - Vossi Bop
23/05/2019 Ed Sheeran & Justin Bieber - I Don't Care
30/05/2019 Ed Sheeran & Justin Bieber - I Don't Care
06/06/2019 Ed Sheeran & Justin Bieber - I Don't Care
13/06/2019 Ed Sheeran & Justin Bieber - I Don't Care
20/06/2019 Ed Sheeran & Justin Bieber - I Don't Care
27/06/2019 Ed Sheeran & Justin Bieber - I Don't Care
04/07/2019 Ed Sheeran & Justin Bieber - I Don't Care
11/07/2019 Ed Sheeran & Justin Bieber - I Don't Care
18/07/2019 Shawn Mendes & Camila Cabello - Señorita
25/07/2019 Ed Sheeran feat. Khalid - Beautiful People [Ed Sheeran & Justin Bieber - I Don't Care]
01/08/2019 Shawn Mendes & Camila Cabello - Señorita
08/08/2019 Shawn Mendes & Camila Cabello - Señorita
15/08/2019 Shawn Mendes & Camila Cabello - Señorita
22/08/2019 Shawn Mendes & Camila Cabello - Señorita
29/08/2019 Shawn Mendes & Camila Cabello - Señorita
05/09/2019 Ed Sheeran feat. Stormzy - Take Me Back to London
12/09/2019 Ed Sheeran feat. Stormzy - Take Me Back to London
19/09/2019 Ed Sheeran feat. Stormzy - Take Me Back to London
26/09/2019 Ed Sheeran feat. Stormzy - Take Me Back to London
03/10/2019 Ed Sheeran feat. Stormzy - Take Me Back to London
10/10/2019 Tones and I - Dance Monkey
17/10/2019 Tones and I - Dance Monkey
24/10/2019 Tones and I - Dance Monkey
31/10/2019 Tones and I - Dance Monkey
07/11/2019 Tones and I - Dance Monkey
14/11/2019 Tones and I - Dance Monkey
21/11/2019 Tones and I - Dance Monkey
28/11/2019 Tones and I - Dance Monkey
05/12/2019 Tones and I - Dance Monkey
12/12/2019 Tones and I - Dance Monkey
19/12/2019 Tones and I - Dance Monkey
26/12/2019 LadBaby - I Love Sausage Rolls
02/01/2020 Ellie Goulding - River [Mariah Carey - All I Want for Christmas Is You]

09/01/2020 Stormzy feat. Ed Sheeran & Burna Boy - Own It [Tones and I - Dance Monkey]
16/01/2020 Stormzy feat. Ed Sheeran & Burna Boy - Own It [Tones and I - Dance Monkey]
23/01/2020 Stormzy feat. Ed Sheeran & Burna Boy - Own It [Tones and I - Dance Monkey]
30/01/2020 Eminem feat. Juice WRLD - Godzilla [Tones and I - Dance Monkey]
06/02/2020 Lewis Capaldi - Before You Go
13/02/2020 The Weeknd - Blinding Lights
20/02/2020 The Weeknd - Blinding Lights
27/02/2020 Billie Eilish - No Time to Die
05/03/2020 The Weeknd - Blinding Lights
12/03/2020 The Weeknd - Blinding Lights
19/03/2020 The Weeknd - Blinding Lights
26/03/2020 SAINt JHN - Roses
02/04/2020 SAINt JHN - Roses [The Weeknd - Blinding Lights]
09/04/2020 The Weeknd - Blinding Lights
16/04/2020 The Weeknd - Blinding Lights
23/04/2020 The Weeknd - Blinding Lights
30/04/2020 Michael Ball, Captain Tom Moore & The NHS Voices of Care Choir - You'll Never Walk Alone
07/05/2020 Live Lounge Allstars - Times Like These
14/05/2020 Drake - Toosie Slide [The Weeknd - Blinding Lights]
21/05/2020 DaBaby feat. Roddy Ricch - ROCKSTAR [The Weeknd - Blinding Lights]
28/05/2020 DaBaby feat. Roddy Ricch - ROCKSTAR
04/06/2020 Lady Gaga & Ariana Grande - Rain On Me
11/06/2020 DaBaby feat. Roddy Ricch - ROCKSTAR


blue = songs that gained #1 because another song / other songs were on ACR. The SCR #1 is listed in square brackets.
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dan-G
post Jun 10 2020, 03:15 PM
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let’s take a moment to appreciate if only there was no christmas or acr Tones and I would’ve beaten Bryan Adams record cheeseblock.png
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coi
post Jun 10 2020, 03:26 PM
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QUOTE(dan-G @ Jun 10 2020, 04:15 PM) *
let’s take a moment to appreciate if only there was no christmas or acr Tones and I would’ve beaten Bryan Adams record cheeseblock.png

"If there was no Christmas" laugh.gif
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Klumzee
post Jun 10 2020, 03:57 PM
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Interesting to see which hits never would've made #1. The likes of 'Feels', 'I'll Be There', 'Beautiful People' and 'River' have always felt a bit non #1 in today's sales climate. Also interesting that 'These Days' and 'Own It' never would have made #1 despite all the success they've had!

Also cry.gif at Mariah being blocked multiple times.
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dan-G
post Jun 10 2020, 04:01 PM
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let's also not forget that River would have missed the entire top 10 if all the Christmas classics weren't relegated to ACR, so in that sense it truly is the most baffling #1 hit of all time. (and that's before mentioning Alexa)
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jimwatts
post Jun 10 2020, 04:02 PM
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According to Alan Jones, Dance Monkey "would have fallen to No. 3 anyway" even without ACR at the end of its 11 weeks at #1 - so Own It would still have outsold it as well as the Ladbaby song. I think it would have gone back ahead of them the following week though.
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dan-G
post Jun 10 2020, 04:04 PM
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QUOTE(jimwatts @ Jun 10 2020, 05:02 PM) *
According to Alan Jones, Dance Monkey "would have fallen to No. 3 anyway" even without ACR at the end of its 11 weeks at #1 - so Own It would still have outsold it as well as the Ladbaby song. I think it would have gone back ahead of them the following week though.

It would've been #3 behind LadBaby and Mariah Carey. It still outsold Stormzy.

edit - so it seems I’m wrong here.
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Bré
post Jun 10 2020, 04:11 PM
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That moment when ACR rules have given Ed Sheeran 2 additional #1s that wouldn't have reached #1 otherwise.
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jimwatts
post Jun 10 2020, 04:15 PM
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If he was counting Mariah then Wham! would have counted too. I thought Own It would have been just ahead, it did over 67k that week whereas Dance Monkey did just under 35k but at least 3k of that would have been pure sales, so less than 67k if back on SCR. Anyway Ladbaby happened...
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Klumzee
post Jun 10 2020, 04:16 PM
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QUOTE(Bré @ Jun 10 2020, 05:11 PM) *
That moment when ACR rules have given Ed Sheeran 2 additional #1s that wouldn't have reached #1 otherwise.


Ed Sheeran will achieve his chart records no matter what rules are put in place he's that success-hungry.
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JosephStyles
post Jun 10 2020, 04:37 PM
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QUOTE(jimwatts @ Jun 10 2020, 05:02 PM) *
According to Alan Jones, Dance Monkey "would have fallen to No. 3 anyway" even without ACR at the end of its 11 weeks at #1 - so Own It would still have outsold it as well as the Ladbaby song. I think it would have gone back ahead of them the following week though.

I can confirm if Tones was on SCR that week, she would indeed be #3 behind LadBaby and Stormzy. On the "old rules" chart, she was #5: LadBaby #1, Wham! #2, Mariah #3, Stormzy #4, Tones #5.
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chartjack
post Jun 10 2020, 10:16 PM
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So the only single to date denied a peak of #1 because of the ACR rule is “All I Want for Christmas Is You”!!
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jimwatts
post Jun 11 2020, 07:19 AM
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Yes, and given why ACR was originally brought in, with 3 weeks of consistent decline needed, it shouldn't have prevented songs reaching #1.

The 3-year rule (which keeps older songs on permanent ACR that can't be reset) has prevented many Christmas songs from higher peaks, plus a few others (e.g. Thiago Silva, Aretha's You Make Me Feel...) - however the only songs I can only think of which weren't subjected to this rule and would have peaked higher if ACR didn't exist at all (not to be confused with 'if they had stayed on SCR a bit longer') are: The Greatest Show (peak #20, without ACR somewhere around #14 the following January) and Late Night Feelings (peak #30, without ACR somewhere around #24 when the album came out).
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