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 General Election 2019 "The Poll" |
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 31st October 2019, 07:41 AM
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#41
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 Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364 
 
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Looking at this thread's poll so far, even this forum hasn't given Lab enough support for a majority...
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31st October 2019, 07:48 AM
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#42
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Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364
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ISTM the Brexit party will be more likely to stand against Tory Remainers than Leavers, so I suspect the Tories may become more Leave oriented, whatever the overall result...
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31st October 2019, 07:53 AM
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#43
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Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364
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On a more neutral note, if anyone wants a copy of my 2017 GE spreadsheet for tactical voting analysis or any other reason, just PM me and we can sort something out.
Regards, |
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31st October 2019, 08:18 AM
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#44
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 BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 13 April 2007
Posts: 36,668 User: 3,272
       
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QUOTE(vidcapper @ Oct 31 2019, 07:41 AM)  Looking at this thread's poll so far, even this forum hasn't given Lab enough support for a majority... And might not be enough to give the Tories a single seat 
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31st October 2019, 08:19 AM
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#45
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 13 April 2007
Posts: 36,668 User: 3,272
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Just looking at the 2017 result to determine how to vote tactically is far too simplistic this time. When looking at tactical voting sites, as Iz says, you need to try and find out as much as you can about them, including their methodology for determining their recommendations. Ideally, they should also take into account the local and European elections from earlier this year and, perhaps, the history of the seat.
Historically, as others have said, there has been an assumption that bad weather favours the Tories. However, I suspect that is now rather dated. It has been based on the fact that Labour voters are less likely to have a car which is probably less true now. The timing will make a difference to the parties' polling day plans as they will want to get their elderly voters out before it gets dark. Even canvassing will be more difficult as all evening canvassing will be after dark when a lot of people are more reluctant to answer the door. Unfortunately, that means even more reliance on the unregulated world of social media. An additional factor, as hinted at in a different thread, could be the location of polling stations. Many polling station venues will have been booked for pre-Christmas events which means local authorities will have to look elsewhere. If voters go to their normal polling station and find nothing there, will they bother to find out where they DO need to go. Ideally, there would be a notice prominently displayed, but weather-proof notices cost money and local authorities run elections on a very tight budget with spending limits. I assume Farage and Johnson will dismiss any idea of a pact as outrageous and undemocratic. After all, that's what they said about the pro-Remain pact in Brecon and Radnorshire and they wouldn't want to look like hypocrites, would they? |
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31st October 2019, 08:38 AM
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#46
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 BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 22,001 User: 53
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The address of the polling station will be on the poll card though. Don't people bother to read them?
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31st October 2019, 08:41 AM
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#47
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Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364
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QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Oct 31 2019, 08:19 AM) An additional factor, as hinted at in a different thread, could be the location of polling stations. Many polling station venues will have been booked for pre-Christmas events which means local authorities will have to look elsewhere. If voters go to their normal polling station and find nothing there, will they bother to find out where they DO need to go. Ideally, there would be a notice prominently displayed, but weather-proof notices cost money and local authorities run elections on a very tight budget with spending limits. I assume Farage and Johnson will dismiss any idea of a pact as outrageous and undemocratic. After all, that's what they said about the pro-Remain pact in Brecon and Radnorshire and they wouldn't want to look like hypocrites, would they? IRO locations of polling stations - the location of your local polling station is listed on the card, even if isn't the usual one, so there shouldn't be a problem there. As for not wanting to look hypocritical - name me one politician who's ever been worries about that!
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31st October 2019, 08:57 AM
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#48
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 13 April 2007
Posts: 36,668 User: 3,272
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QUOTE(Freddie Kruger @ Oct 31 2019, 08:38 AM) The address of the polling station will be on the poll card though. Don't people bother to read them? If the polling station has been in the same place for years, probably not in a lot of cases. |
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31st October 2019, 09:00 AM
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#49
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Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364
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QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Oct 31 2019, 08:57 AM) If the polling station has been in the same place for years, probably not in a lot of cases. Then hopefully they will discover their mistake in time to go to the alternative. |
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31st October 2019, 09:46 AM
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#50
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 Break the tension
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 88,946 User: 51
 
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QUOTE(vidcapper @ Oct 31 2019, 07:41 AM) Looking at this thread's poll so far, even this forum hasn't given Lab enough support for a majority... I'm feeling probably Labour, but I'm not 100% sure so I'm biding my time before I cast my vote. |
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 31st October 2019, 09:47 AM
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#51
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Nah.
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 15,566 User: 27
 
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Safe conservative seat here, but the sitting MP is retiring...
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31st October 2019, 12:16 PM
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#52
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BuzzJack Gold Member
Joined: 25 July 2016
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'Britain Deserves Better' is quite the slogan for a party that has been in power for almost a decade...
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31st October 2019, 01:45 PM
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#53
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 I'm a paragon so don't perceive me
Joined: 3 February 2011
Posts: 37,417 User: 12,929           
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Fits right into the Tory strategy of short, quippy and wrong so I'm sure it'll do wonders for them as all the liberals and the left point out how wrong it is.
Real Change is okay for Labour but no one will talk about it because it's too simple and is actually what they plan to do. At least 'for the many not the few' is still holding some pride of place if we go by their Twitter page. |
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31st October 2019, 02:47 PM
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#54
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Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364
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QUOTE(Tones and Iz @ Oct 31 2019, 01:45 PM) Real Change is okay for Labour but no one will talk about it because it's too simple and is actually what they plan to do. What - act simple?
This post has been edited by vidcapper: 31st October 2019, 02:47 PM |
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31st October 2019, 03:27 PM
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#55
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Break the tension
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 88,946 User: 51
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QUOTE(vidcapper @ Oct 31 2019, 02:47 PM) What - act simple? "Very droll" |
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31st October 2019, 04:18 PM
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#56
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 22,001 User: 53
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Corbyn made a speech earlier announcing some policy
Protect NHS in trade deal Referendum on Brexit within 6 months with “sensible deal vs remain” Tackling climate crisis, “green industrial revolution”, creating jobs £10 minimum wage for all over 16 Free childcare for all 2-4 year olds (30h) Adjusting tax rates for the rich and tightening tax dodging rules Tackling dodgy landlords and rent prices Scrapping universal credit Free prescriptions for all. This post has been edited by Freddie Kruger: 31st October 2019, 04:19 PM |
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31st October 2019, 04:28 PM
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#57
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I'm a paragon so don't perceive me
Joined: 3 February 2011
Posts: 37,417 User: 12,929
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Looks good from Corbyn. Good, simple Brexit policy, I will want some more details on the rest but superficially it looks like what we should be aiming for and Corbyn's campaign machine has experience with producing fully costed manifestos so I'm fairly sure he'll serve that up again.
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31st October 2019, 05:10 PM
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#58
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Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364
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QUOTE(Tones and Iz @ Oct 31 2019, 04:28 PM) Looks good from Corbyn. Good, simple Brexit policy, I will want some more details on the rest but superficially it looks like what we should be aiming for and Corbyn's campaign machine has experience with producing fully costed manifestos so I'm fairly sure he'll serve that up again. 
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31st October 2019, 05:19 PM
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#59
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BuzzJack Enthusiast
Joined: 1 June 2013
Posts: 527 User: 19,091
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QUOTE(vidcapper @ Oct 31 2019, 05:10 PM) I don't suppose you would react the same way had such a post been made about Boris....but apparently you're not a tory 
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31st October 2019, 06:34 PM
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#60
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 22,001 User: 53
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QUOTE(Tones and Iz @ Oct 31 2019, 04:28 PM) Looks good from Corbyn. Good, simple Brexit policy, I will want some more details on the rest but superficially it looks like what we should be aiming for and Corbyn's campaign machine has experience with producing fully costed manifestos so I'm fairly sure he'll serve that up again. I want to know if he still intends to scrap the WCA, work capability assessment, and pass the responsibility for deciding if someone's fit to work back to GP's |
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