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 OPINION POLLS 2018-2022, Strong and stable... |
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 Dec 3 2018, 05:57 PM
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#41
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 BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 13 April 2007
Posts: 36,653 User: 3,272 
        
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QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Dec 3 2018, 11:15 AM)  Thanks to the Fixed Term Parliament Act (cheers Nick Clegg...) there won't be a snap general election. I cannot see the appetite for it from 2/3 of the HoC - Secondly, even IF there were to be a snap election, the result would likely be the same hung parliament we have currently (going on recent Opinion Polls) with no party nor coalition able to command a majority. There will be a general election if the government loses a confidence vote, assuming Corbyn cannot form a government. The 2/3rds majority is only required if the government wants to call an early election. The FTP Act reducesd the powers of the PM. Without it, Cameron could have called an election at any time in the coalition years. |
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Dec 3 2018, 07:53 PM
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#42
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 Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
Posts: 46,140 User: 5,138
 
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It May loses the vote next Tuesday what will happen? Will she not have the confidence of parliament meaning JC will be asked to form a minority gov or will the bill be amended and passed?
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Dec 3 2018, 07:59 PM
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#43
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Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
Posts: 44,030 User: 18,639
    
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It is a deal, so cannot be amended.
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Dec 3 2018, 08:01 PM
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#44
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 13 April 2007
Posts: 36,653 User: 3,272
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There would have to be a separate vote of confidence if the government loses the vote on the deal. It seems almost certain that Labour would table one if the government does lose on the 11th. If that is passed (basically, if the DUP abandon the confidence and supply arrangement), Corbyn (or someone else) would have 14 days to form a government. If he can't, there will be a general election.
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Dec 3 2018, 11:43 PM
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#45
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Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
Posts: 46,140 User: 5,138
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Omg!
There's a European council meeting that May will try and get an amendment! |
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Dec 4 2018, 06:12 AM
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#46
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 Queen of Soon
Joined: 24 May 2007
Posts: 74,072 User: 3,474
  
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QUOTE(vidsanta @ Dec 3 2018, 01:11 PM) I'm not sure where they get 43 SNP MP's from, though? They currently have 35, and they'd probably lose as many to Lab as they might gain from Tories. They did have 53 a couple of years ago. You overestimate the appeal of Corbyn in Scotland when his manifesto is a watered down version of the SNPs “our record in government” page off their website and he’s not pro-EU. Something that matters in a country that’s more than 63% in favour of remain |
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Dec 4 2018, 06:23 AM
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#47
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 Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364
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QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Dec 3 2018, 08:01 PM) There would have to be a separate vote of confidence if the government loses the vote on the deal. It seems almost certain that Labour would table one if the government does lose on the 11th. If that is passed (basically, if the DUP abandon the confidence and supply arrangement), Corbyn (or someone else) would have 14 days to form a government. If he can't, there will be a general election. Just because the DUP have abandoned their support, doesn't mean they'd vote *against* the Tories in a no-confidence vote since they'd get nothing from a Labour gov't. More likely they'd abstain, and in that case, the opposition would not have enough votes to win. |
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Dec 4 2018, 06:26 AM
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#48
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Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364
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QUOTE(5 Silas Frøkner @ Dec 4 2018, 06:12 AM) They did have 53 a couple of years ago. You overestimate the appeal of Corbyn in Scotland when his manifesto is a watered down version of the SNPs “our record in government” page off their website and he’s not pro-EU. Something that matters in a country that’s more than 63% in favour of remain But that 53 was an historic high, which I can't imagine being repeated, especially as it was due to Labour's weakness there at the time. |
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Dec 4 2018, 06:38 AM
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#49
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Queen of Soon
Joined: 24 May 2007
Posts: 74,072 User: 3,474
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Labour are still weak north of the border though. Scottish polling numbers look exceptionally different to that for the rest of the UK. The SNP are in the 40’s and then Tory and Labour are hanging out around the low 20’s. Labour lost a lot of votes in Scotland for good and many think Corbyns full of shite (plus the Scottish party are crap and more interested in trying to score a cheap political goal than doing anything of use). Additionally they propped up a lot of Tory council administrations, even when the SNP were the largest party and when they are supposed to be similar in political outlook. That really hurt them
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Dec 4 2018, 06:56 AM
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#50
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Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364
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QUOTE(5 Silas Frøkner @ Dec 4 2018, 06:38 AM) Labour are still weak north of the border though. Scottish polling numbers look exceptionally different to that for the rest of the UK. The SNP are in the 40’s and then Tory and Labour are hanging out around the low 20’s. Labour lost a lot of votes in Scotland for good and many think Corbyns full of shite (plus the Scottish party are crap and more interested in trying to score a cheap political goal than doing anything of use). Additionally they propped up a lot of Tory council administrations, even when the SNP were the largest party and when they are supposed to be similar in political outlook. That really hurt them IN which case, would the SNP really want to risk propping up a Labour minority gov't? It proved disastrous for the LD's... |
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Dec 4 2018, 07:20 AM
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#51
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Queen of Soon
Joined: 24 May 2007
Posts: 74,072 User: 3,474
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They have long ruled out formally being part of a coalition government, but would enter a confidence and supply arrangement and have always been open about their willingness to do that in return for more devolution. That and a chance to be part of ending austerity would be a big motivator for them to join forces. They’re judged on Holyrood so more money and more power for Holyrood puts them in a good place for 2021
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Dec 4 2018, 07:27 AM
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#52
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Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364
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QUOTE(5 Silas Frøkner @ Dec 4 2018, 07:20 AM) They have long ruled out formally being part of a coalition government, but would enter a confidence and supply arrangement and have always been open about their willingness to do that in return for more devolution. That and a chance to be part of ending austerity would be a big motivator for them to join forces. They’re judged on Holyrood so more money and more power for Holyrood puts them in a good place for 2021 Who'd trust them in a 'confidence & supply' arrangement after what the DUP did... 
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Dec 4 2018, 08:30 AM
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#53
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Queen of Soon
Joined: 24 May 2007
Posts: 74,072 User: 3,474
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They’re two very different parties with very different leadership for a start
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Dec 4 2018, 09:25 AM
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#54
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Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364
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QUOTE(5 Silas Frøkner @ Dec 4 2018, 08:30 AM) They’re two very different parties with very different leadership for a start From my pov, the SNP & Labour are very similar, both left-wing, with Scottish Independence being the only major difference. |
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Dec 4 2018, 10:28 AM
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#55
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 I Drink Wine
Joined: 12 April 2015
Posts: 10,484 User: 21,753
  
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QUOTE(5 Silas Frøkner @ Dec 4 2018, 07:20 AM) They have long ruled out formally being part of a coalition government, but would enter a confidence and supply arrangement and have always been open about their willingness to do that in return for more devolution. That and a chance to be part of ending austerity would be a big motivator for them to join forces. They’re judged on Holyrood so more money and more power for Holyrood puts them in a good place for 2021 You'd think the SNP would rather swallow their pride and enter into a coalition with Labour than allowing the Tories longer in power? |
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Dec 4 2018, 12:06 PM
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#56
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Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
Posts: 46,140 User: 5,138
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QUOTE(5 Silas Frøkner @ Dec 4 2018, 06:38 AM) Labour are still weak north of the border though. Scottish polling numbers look exceptionally different to that for the rest of the UK. The SNP are in the 40’s and then Tory and Labour are hanging out around the low 20’s. Labour lost a lot of votes in Scotland for good and many think Corbyns full of shite (plus the Scottish party are crap and more interested in trying to score a cheap political goal than doing anything of use). Additionally they propped up a lot of Tory council administrations, even when the SNP were the largest party and when they are supposed to be similar in political outlook. That really hurt them This, the snp are basically taking all the left of centre support from labour! |
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Dec 4 2018, 12:08 PM
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#57
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Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
Posts: 46,140 User: 5,138
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QUOTE(vidsanta @ Dec 4 2018, 09:25 AM) From my pov, the SNP & Labour are very similar, both left-wing, with Scottish Independence being the only major difference. More or less a bit like SF in Ireland they are populist social democrat parties only in England populist means having to be anti eu to attract small town voters who live in areas annihilated by the eu! |
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Dec 4 2018, 02:58 PM
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#58
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Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364
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QUOTE(Christmasteve201 @ Dec 4 2018, 12:08 PM) More or less a bit like SF in Ireland they are populist social democrat parties only in England populist means having to be anti eu to attract small town voters who live in areas annihilated by the eu! But if/when the SNP achieve Scottish independence, their reason to exist will be gone, and they'll fade away like UKIP... |
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Dec 4 2018, 05:28 PM
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#59
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Cœur poids plume
Joined: 3 November 2007
Posts: 18,129 User: 4,718
  
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QUOTE(vidsanta @ Dec 4 2018, 03:58 PM) But if/when the SNP achieve Scottish independence, their reason to exist will be gone, and they'll fade away like UKIP... The SNP aren't like UKIP though. They're not a single-issue party and they've been in power for over 11 years, whereas UKIP have fairly minimal influence across all levels of government. There's not necessarily anyone to replace them either, yet, whereas the Tories easily gobbled up UKIP votes in 2017. |
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Dec 4 2018, 10:40 PM
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#60
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Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
Posts: 44,030 User: 18,639
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DUP announced it wants an election. Tories are over. Great use of 1billion eh Mad May!
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