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BuzzJack Music Forum _ News and Politics _ Local by-election results
Posted by: vidcapper 26th January 2018, 02:47 PM
This is just informational - make of it what you will :
https://www.aldc.org/category/by-election-results/
There's an archive of them here : http://www.gwydir.demon.co.uk/byelections/
Posted by: Suedehead2 26th January 2018, 04:31 PM
I'd been thinking about starting a thread for these, but there's been nothing particularly noteworthy so far this year. The Lib Dems will probably be reasonably happy with the IOW result. The parliamentary seat was a very tight Tory - Lib Dem marginal for years, but the Lib Dems were a long way behind even before the coalition years. Therefore, getting over a quarter of the vote in a ward where they haven't put up a candidate for a decade or so - and in a heavy Leave-voting area - has to count as a reasonable result.
Posted by: Suedehead2 26th January 2018, 04:33 PM
http://britainelects.com has fairly comprehensive previews of each week's by-elections.
Posted by: Suedehead2 1st February 2018, 11:51 PM
The Lib Dems have come from a very distant fourth to win a seat in Sunderland. They got just 91 votes (under 5%) in May 2016, but got over half the vote this time in a five-way contest.
Posted by: vidcapper 2nd February 2018, 06:27 AM
I'm always amazed at how volatile local election results can be - I suspect there were specific factors in the above turnaround, though.
Posted by: Suedehead2 2nd February 2018, 11:14 AM
In yesterday's other contest, Labour comfortably held a seat in Falmouth.
Posted by: Suedehead2 2nd February 2018, 11:39 AM
There is normally something specific to explain extreme turnarounds such as this, but I haven't found any explanation for this yet. The Lib Dems had never done well in the ward before. Their previous best result was a distant second in 2006. The previous Labour councillor (who happened to be Lauren Laverne's uncle) died, so the reason for the by-election doesn't provide an explanation either. The Lib Dems had an equally unexpected win in an other Sunderland seat in January last year
Posted by: Suedehead2 9th February 2018, 11:56 AM
Nothing particularly remarkable in this week's contests. The Tories gained a seat from an independent in Weymouth. There was no independent candidate this time and the Tories won by just eight votes over Labour.
One of the contests was in Staffordshire where the Tory resigned having only won the seat in a by-election in September The Tories still managed to win. They also successfully defended a seat where they had won unopposed since at least 1999.
UKIP only contested one seat and saw their vote almost disappear. The Greens had a couple half-decent results against the general trend. The Lib Dems had no realistic hopes of winning any of the contests and duly didn't come close anywhere.
Posted by: Popchartfreak 10th February 2018, 09:57 AM
candidates can affect local result, if I can state the obvious. A young independent had a narrow win in the Bournemouth ward where the previous long-serving candidate had retired to live in Spain (who can blame her) as he had her full support and she was well-regarded. That leaves 2 independents, one green and a swarm of Tories running the Council ahead of their forthcoming mass deletion on joining with Tory Poole and Tory Christchurch (assuming Javid gives the order against local opinion on the grounds that Christchurch isnt big enough to go it alone and Dorset CC doesnt want them - who would, the elderly care bill is enormous?!).
Oh yes, and by the by, huge swarms of experienced Council staff are also getting the early nod to abandon ship (and not be replaced). This will be the final swathe of local Council cutbacks ever as there is nothing left to cut short of ceasing even more Council functions than have already gone. Public toilets outside the Town centre and Seafront? Thing of the past, that's taking the piss literally....
Posted by: vidcapper 10th February 2018, 10:25 AM
I guess they expect people to just piss straight into the sea?
Posted by: Suedehead2 16th February 2018, 09:21 PM
There were 14 local by-elections yesterday; the Tories were defending seven, Labour four, UKIP, SNP and Residents Association one each.
The Tories won the UKIP seat on Tendring council (basically Clacton, Essex) with UKIP finishing sixth. Independents came second and third in that contest. UKIP won 22 seats at the last election, just one behind the Tories. However, following a lot of defections, they now have only eight.
In a seat in Cameron's old seat of Witney the Tories were defending a seat they had won comfortably in every election this century with the exception of 2007 when the Lib Dems won by one vote. The Tories won that seat comfortably with the Lib Dems regaining second place.
In North Norfolk the Lib Dems won back a seat they lost to the Tories in 2015, It had previously been Lib Dem since at least 2003, but generally by fairly small majorities.The Lib Dems won easily yesterday with over 70% of the vote in a three-way contest.
There were two contests in Teignbridge in Devon with the Tories defending both of them. One of the seats had generally elected independent candidates until the Tories started winning it. Labour won it once (in 1995) and the Lib Dems won a by-election there in December 2016 having finished last in the previous full elections. The Lib Dems won again yesterday with a small majority. In the other seat, a Tory / Lib Dem marginal for some time, the Lib Dems got over 70% of the vote in a straight fight against the Tories. The Tory majority on the council is now down to four.
The defending party won all the other contests with the Lib Dems seeing a big increase in their vote in a couple of them.
Posted by: Doctor Blind 9th March 2018, 12:15 AM
Conservatives were contesting in five by-elections today.
They lost every single one!! 
Lib Dems absolutely smashed it in Northchurch too...
LDEM: 59.2% (+40.4)
CON: 28.2% (-32.1)
LAB: 10.5% (-1.7)
GRN: 2.1% (-6.6)
LDem GAIN from Con.
Posted by: Suedehead2 9th March 2018, 12:30 AM
Do you know why there was such a massive swing?
The Tories gained two seats from the Lib Dems in Dorset two weeks ago, Both by-elections were due to the resignation of the same councillor. She clearly had a large personal vote as she had easily outpolled fellow Lib Dems in the same seats. In the same week the lib Dems gained a seat from the Tories. There were no particularly remarkable results last week.
Posted by: vidcapper 9th March 2018, 03:43 PM
They lost every single one!!
Actually, they were contesting 8.
Posted by: Doctor Blind 9th March 2018, 03:55 PM
Yes, sorry - I should have said 'defending'.
Posted by: Suedehead2 17th August 2018, 05:45 PM
Two moderately interesting results yesterday plus a very boring one.
First, the dull one. In Bury (the one in Greater Manchester) Labour comfortably held a seat they have won fairly easily for several years. Of more interest, the Lib Dems gained a seat from the Tories in Harrogate. Despite there being no UKIP candidate this time, Labour and the Tories both lost vote share. This was in a constituency that voted 58% Leave (although, obviously, I have no data for this particular ward).
Finally, there was a by-election in Wales which was easily won (from Labour) by an independent who used to be a Labour councillor. I'm sure the fact that the Labour candidate was from Surrey didn't exactly help in Port Talbot. Anyway, the biggest laugh is reserved for the Tory candidate who got four votes.
Posted by: Popchartfreak 17th August 2018, 07:47 PM
First, the dull one. In Bury (the one in Greater Manchester) Labour comfortably held a seat they have won fairly easily for several years. Of more interest, the Lib Dems gained a seat from the Tories in Harrogate. Despite there being no UKIP candidate this time, Labour and the Tories both lost vote share. This was in a constituency that voted 58% Leave (although, obviously, I have no data for this particular ward).
Finally, there was a by-election in Wales which was easily won (from Labour) by an independent who used to be a Labour councillor. I'm sure the fact that the Labour candidate was from Surrey didn't exactly help in Port Talbot. Anyway, the biggest laugh is reserved for the Tory candidate who got four votes.
was that a Tory Port Talbot improvement?
That should mean his family voted for him or her at least...
Posted by: Suedehead2 17th August 2018, 08:26 PM
That should mean his family voted for him or her at least... Technically, yes. There wasn't a Tory candidate last time
I have seen a suggestion that there were five members of the candidate's family (including herself) in the ward but that is unconfirmed. It still means that at least six people signed her nomination form but did not vote for her.
Posted by: Popchartfreak 18th August 2018, 08:40 AM
I have seen a suggestion that there were five members of the candidate's family (including herself) in the ward but that is unconfirmed. It still means that at least six people signed her nomination form but did not vote for her.when even your friends wont vote for you.....! Ouch!
(I mean I would give a personal vote to a friend who I respected to do a good job even if I have differences over politics.)
Posted by: Suedehead2 25th October 2018, 07:40 AM
There are ten contests today. Many of them are in safe Labour or Tory seats but there are a couple clos Tory / Lib Dem contests and a potentially close Tory / Labour one.
Posted by: Doctor Death 26th October 2018, 04:02 PM
There's no doubt that the Liberal Democrats are staging a bit of a comeback at the locals in 2018.
Yesterday they gained Three Rivers Rural in Hertfordshire from the Conservatives with 53% (+10) of the votes, and came within 2 pc of taking Bosmere Ward in Suffolk.
CON: 91 (-14) , 35.7% (-1.5)
LAB: 58 (-1) , 28.5% (+3.3)
LDM: 33 (+20) , 17.9% (+7.2)
Posted by: ¡Michael Myers! 26th October 2018, 04:06 PM
A rural Hertfordshire seat?!
It's because they are the party of remain. Corbyn should take note.
Posted by: Suedehead2 26th October 2018, 04:11 PM
Three Rivers used to be an area where the Lib Dems were pretty strong, so this result represents something of a return to form there.
Posted by: vidcapper 27th October 2018, 05:44 AM
It's because they are the party of remain. Corbyn should take note.
Somehow I don't think Labour would stand a snowball in hell's chance in rural Hertfordshire...
Posted by: vidcapper 28th October 2018, 07:14 AM
The full result...
Hertfordshire CC, Three Rivers Rural
LD 1846 [53.4%; +9.5%]
Con 1315 [38.0%; -9.0%]
Lab 144 [4.2%; -0.1%]
UKIP 86 [2.5%; +0.6%]
Green 68 [2.0%; -1.1%]
Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative
Percentage changes from 2017
Turnout 29.7%
Posted by: ¡Michael Myers! 28th October 2018, 09:36 AM
Perhaps you're right
Posted by: Suedehead2 24th November 2018, 03:41 PM
I think Lancaster Gate ward n Westminster Council may have made a late bid to have the most boring local by-election result of the year.
CON: 47.2% (-0.4)
LAB: 35.4% (-0.5)
LDEM: 14.2% (-2.3)
GRN: 3.2% (+3.2)
The only result of note on Thursday was in Enfield where there was a big swing from Labour to the Tories. It means the ward regains its status as a safe Tory seat which it had been up to, and including, 2010. In May's constituency of Maidenhead, a candidate standing for the National Flood Prevention Party came second.
Posted by: Suedehead2 8th December 2018, 03:28 PM
CON: 47.2% (-0.4)
LAB: 35.4% (-0.5)
LDEM: 14.2% (-2.3)
GRN: 3.2% (+3.2)
The only result of note on Thursday was in Enfield where there was a big swing from Labour to the Tories. It means the ward regains its status as a safe Tory seat which it had been up to, and including, 2010. In May's constituency of Maidenhead, a candidate standing for the National Flood Prevention Party came second.
Wolvercote ward in Oxford has put in an even later bid for the "most boring result" title.
LDEM: 60.5% (-0.5)
CON: 24.5% (+1.0)
LAB: 9.8% (-0.1)
GRN: 5.2% (-0.5)
There was also a by-election in Scotland in a ward that is larger than Luxembourg and Malta
That ward saw the SNP gain a seat from the Lib Dems. That was largely down to the use of AV in by-elections where STV is used in full elections. The Lib Dems won the last of the seats allocated and, therefore, started from a weak position in an AV vote That has led to a discussion on Twitter on whether there is a better way for filling vacancies in such circumstances.Elsewhere, the Tories lost a seat to an independent candidate in a normally rock-solid Tory ward on Surrey CC and Labour held a seat in Leicester with over 5/6ths of the vote.
Posted by: Lapland Labia 8th December 2018, 03:42 PM
We need to get rid of these rotten boroughs and assign seats by overall popular vote.
Posted by: Brett-Butler 8th December 2018, 05:54 PM
That ward saw the SNP gain a seat from the Lib Dems. That was largely down to the use of AV in by-elections where STV is used in full elections. The Lib Dems won the last of the seats allocated and, therefore, started from a weak position in an AV vote That has led to a discussion on Twitter on whether there is a better way for filling vacancies in such circumstances.In the NI Assembly (during the occasion under a blue moon where it's actually sitting), when a member steps down, their position is co-opted from a list that is drawn up by their predecessor, which is in almost all cases someone from the same political party. It does mean that someone from a similar political persuasion to the person who has left the position will fill the role, but then of course it means that your representative for the rest of the Assembly's term is not someone who has been elected by the people. It's not a perfect solution, but it does seem a better way of doing things than the AV you've mentioned, as if there are several by-elections that don't overlap, there could be a situation where the representatives in the council are not actually representative after all, and could end up being from the same party.
Posted by: Christmasteve201 9th December 2018, 12:55 AM
Always thought this was dodgy too though as the party internally can fix who they want wherever they want them especially with certain political parties in NI!
Posted by: Suedehead2 9th December 2018, 04:29 PM
That's an interesting point. There would be a risk that a party might persuade an awkward representative to resign so that they can be replaced with someone more compliant. Perhaps there is a case for having different rules depending on the reason for the vacancy. A vacancy caused by a death or resignation through ill-health (subject to safeguards in the latter case) could be filled by nomination, but a vacancy caused by a resignation for other reasons would trigger a by-election.
Posted by: Harve 9th December 2018, 06:21 PM
What does this even mean
Posted by: Suedehead2 9th December 2018, 10:15 PM
Your guess is as good as mine
Posted by: Christmasteve201 9th December 2018, 11:48 PM
Exactly seen this happen before!
Posted by: Lapland Labia 9th December 2018, 11:52 PM
Get rid of boundaries and FPTP by constituency. Have a popular vote cross the country and assign the number of seats based on that. No mote Tory 'wins' through gerrymandering!
Posted by: vidsanta 10th December 2018, 06:19 AM
But that would eliminate the crucial local link - how would you like your MP to be someone from hundreds of miles away who couldn't give s sh1t about your constituency's problems?
Also, we'd then have permanent coalition gov't because no party would ever get 50% of the popular vote.
Posted by: Popchartfreak 10th December 2018, 08:08 AM
That would just cause resentment amongst voters. people in a safe Labour area would be pissed off at having Tories represent them, and people in safe Tory seats pissed off at having Labour - though the advantage would be Libdems having more seats, the disadvantage would be no Libdem councils ever even when they have local strongholds.
Just wouldn't work.
Posted by: 5 Silas Frøkner 10th December 2018, 10:04 PM
Having a local representative is a key tenant of an effective parliamentary democracy
Not a problem for the entire rest of Europe. And let’s be real, ignoring the SNP getting 50.3% in Scotland in 2015 GE, when was the last time anyone got close to 50% nationally? Weren’t not a 2 party system and we will never return to being one. The days of a 50% vote and a win are over
Posted by: Lapland Labia 10th December 2018, 10:06 PM
Well no. Places with a high Labour vote would get Labour MPs. One with similar votes would get one of each etc. Easy fix and stops results like in 2010 where Labour got an almost identical vote spli5 to the Tories but 100 fewer seats. That is not democracy.
Posted by: 5 Silas Frøkner 10th December 2018, 10:08 PM
You don’t fix that by removing constituencies though. You do multimember wards or you have regional lists like you do for the devolved Parliaments that counteract the constituency vote to make the overall result proportional
Posted by: Suedehead2 10th December 2018, 10:17 PM
Not a problem for the entire rest of Europe. And let’s be real, ignoring the SNP getting 50.3% in Scotland in 2015 GE, when was the last time anyone got close to 50% nationally? Weren’t not a 2 party system and we will never return to being one. The days of a 50% vote and a win are over
The closest any party has got to 50% of the vote in a UK general election post-1945 was by Labour in 1951. Despite winning fewer votes than Labour, the Tories won a majority in that election.
Posted by: Brett-Butler 10th December 2018, 10:30 PM
Once again, Westminister could look to the system used in the NI Assembly (and also in the Dail), where the electorate is split into regions, in which 5 people are elected into the Assembly using the single-transferable vote method of PR. It means that you're likely to have at least 1 representative that you can feel comfortable having as your conduit for the area, and it means you can strike the right balance between voting for a party and voting for the individual - there have been a few cases where a particularly unpopular member of a party has lost their seat whilst the other members of the same party still get seats in the same constituency.
I'd love to see it rolled out across the UK in Westminster, with 3 representatives in 200 constituencies of approximately the same size. It would mean, for example, Jeremy Corbyn, Diane Abbott & Emily Thornberry would be competing in the same constituency, meaning there would be a strong chance of at least one of them losing a seat. Just imagine the scores of Portillo moments that would happen in the first election after it being introduced.
Posted by: Lapland Labia 10th December 2018, 10:31 PM
I'd love to see it rolled out across the UK in Westminster, with 3 representatives in 200 constituencies of approximately the same size. It would mean, for example, Jeremy Corbyn, Diane Abbott & Emily Thornberry would be competing in the same constituency, meaning there would be a strong chance of at least one of them losing a seat. Just imagine the scores of Portillo moments that would happen in the first election after it being introduced.
How big would parliament be? And would that stop major discrepancies between Tory vote numbers and their total of seats?
Posted by: Brett-Butler 10th December 2018, 10:36 PM
Parliament would still be 600 people (as it is due to be in the next parliament), each constituency would be bigger to allow for more representatives per constituency whilst still having the same number of representatives. And % of seats would be more likely to be in line with % of 1st preference votes, but there could still be scope for a difference in this depending on how the 2nd preference votes fall.
Posted by: Lapland Labia 10th December 2018, 10:37 PM
That actually sounds like a decent system!
Posted by: Suedehead2 10th December 2018, 11:04 PM
Three people per constituency is not enough. It would still be very difficult for parties such as the Greens to win anything. There should be around five members per constituency. For as long as most power is concentrated in Westminster, the total number of MPs should remain at its current level (give or take a few), but that is a separate issue.
Posted by: Brett-Butler 10th December 2018, 11:13 PM
I'd used three as an example because those three household name MPs have constituencies right beside each other to illustrate how it would affect parliament if it came into force (plus it is divisible into 600, although then again so it 4, 5 & 6 now that I think about it). The NI Assembly had 6 representatives per constituency up until the last election, when it became 5, and this was enough to allow smaller parties like the Greens and People Before Profit to get a seat.
Posted by: vidsanta 11th December 2018, 06:30 AM
I'm actually agreeing with you here - I was just pointing out the consequences to Michael, who apparently has not thought this through.
Posted by: vidsanta 11th December 2018, 06:37 AM
YOu say you want to avoid gerrymandering, but you suggest a system specifically designed to stop one specific party winning - can you not see the inconsistency there?
How exactly, when you've suggested above that the country should be considered one entity for voting purposes?
I favour county-sized units - generally 5-7 MP's, elected by STV.
Posted by: Suedehead2 8th March 2019, 09:05 AM
Just one local byelection yesterday, in Aylesbury Vale, but an interesting one nonetheless.
Green - 50.8% (+36.5)
Con - 32.8% (-3.3)
LibD - 14.0% (+3.6)
Lab - 2.5% (+2.5)
Ind 0 (-25.4)
UKIP 0 (-13.9)
On the face of it, that looks like a spectacular result for the Greens and a poor one for the Tories (losing votes when there were so many Independent and UKIP votes up for grabs). Dig a little deeper and it's far worse for the Tories, even after allowing for the fact that previous results suggested that the Green candidate was a lot more popular than his party. The Independent candidate who polled well in 2015 stood for the Tories this time. Therefore, he seems to have (in net terms) lost all of those votes and then some more.
Posted by: Brett-Butler 8th March 2019, 01:04 PM
The comments on the result seems to suggest the Greens’ surge is due to their position on HS2, if completed it would go straight through the consistency. Another commenter mentioned that there were a surpriising number of switches from UKIP to the Greens in the doorstep, which is surprising.
Posted by: Suedehead2 8th March 2019, 01:49 PM
That's interesting. I had come to the conclusion that a lot of former UKIP supporters simply didn't bother to vote at all.
Posted by: vidcapper 8th March 2019, 02:59 PM
I assume you mean 'constituency'.
It could be an 'anyone but the big two' protest vote?
Posted by: Suedehead2 8th March 2019, 03:27 PM
It could be an 'anyone but the big two' protest vote?
Are you considering a party that got 2.5% of the vote to be one of the "big two"?
Posted by: Brett-Butler 8th March 2019, 06:14 PM
You assume correctly. Autocorrect's a batch.
Posted by: vidcapper 9th March 2019, 06:19 AM
Nationally, of course.
I'm used to seeing Labour vote shares like that in *Cheltenham*...
Posted by: Suedehead2 14th July 2019, 09:05 AM
One interesting result this week from Bridlington in a constituency that had a 64% Leave vote. The Lib Dems, who hadn't stood in the ward for the last twelve years, won the seat comfortably. The Tory vote collapsed from over 70% to just 27% while Labour's vote fell from 30% (in a two-way fight) to under 5%, leaving them behind UKIP.
Posted by: Brett-Butler 14th July 2019, 12:01 PM
Wasn't sure what thread to put this in, but as it relates to a local councillor, I thought I'd leave it here.
A Liberal Democrat councillor in Rochdale has left the party and defected to another. Now normally that's not too newsworthy, as a lot of local councillors change affiliation each year.
However, https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/liberal-democrat-councillor-stuns-colleagues-16563821, citing the Lib Dem's stance on leaving the EU.
Given that she'd only joined the Lib Dems six months previously, having defected from Labour, you'd think that she would of been well aware that the Lib Dems are more pro-EU than the EU itself. In the words of The Doors, people are strange.
Posted by: Harve 14th July 2019, 12:18 PM
The councillor's quotes suggest that she believes that councillors play a part in 'honouring the result of the referendum.'
Quite.
Posted by: Suedehead2 14th July 2019, 12:43 PM
There’s always been a small anti-EU faction in the Lib Dems, but you would have expected someone who goes as far as joining a political party to be aware of its stance on the biggest political issue of the day.
Posted by: Popchartfreak 14th July 2019, 01:27 PM
Yes, what I would call VERY interesting, in the same way the usual predictable Tory stranglehold in the local elections here was interesting - disgruntled Brexiters ignoring the two main parties, and disgruntled Remainers...also ignoring the two main parties.
Funny ol' world.
Posted by: Popchartfreak 14th July 2019, 01:33 PM
...and also be aware that running local government has zero to do with Brexit (except inasmuch as it affects local jobs badly, affects gov subsidies negatively and other issues that they have no control over, they only have control over how to tackle the results of it)
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