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 OPINION POLLS 2019-2024, This thread is 'oven-ready' for the latest polls. |
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 14th December 2019, 04:59 PM
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#21
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 BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 22,001 User: 53 
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I hope you didn't write any obscenities on it Vid. Have read that there were a lot of anti Boris scribblings.....
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15th December 2019, 05:36 AM
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#22
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 Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364
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QUOTE(Crazy Chris-tmas @ Dec 14 2019, 04:59 PM)  I hope you didn't write any obscenities on it Vid. Have read that there were a lot of anti Boris scribblings..... Nah, I'm not Michael... 
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15th December 2019, 08:17 AM
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#23
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Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364
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7 out of 11 eve-of-election polls were within 2% of the actual result...
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15th December 2019, 08:41 AM
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#24
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 22,001 User: 53
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QUOTE(vidsanta @ Dec 15 2019, 08:17 AM) 7 out of 11 eve-of-election polls were within 2% of the actual result... Yep the polling companies must be very pleased witn their predictions and methology this time. |
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15th December 2019, 08:53 AM
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#25
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Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364
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QUOTE(Crazy Chris-tmas @ Dec 15 2019, 08:41 AM) Yep the polling companies must be very pleased witn their predictions and methology this time. Michael has been quiet on this issue since Thursday though, for some reason.  |
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15th December 2019, 09:28 AM
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#26
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 #38BBE0 otherwise known as 'sky blue'
Joined: 27 October 2008
Posts: 16,173 User: 7,561
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vid- can you please refrain from deliberately trolling or digging for a reaction ? It's incredibly annoying.
Anyway, yes the main polling companies all had a good election for the first time in years. Survation ended up once again as the most accurate pollster being just 0.4% out on the final Conservative lead.  As you can see, the Conservatives 'leave' coalition of 43.6% keeps them to preventing any other party from forming even a minority whatever % they hold. 
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15th December 2019, 04:16 PM
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#27
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is my brain across your walls?
Joined: 14 February 2009
Posts: 115,094 User: 8,300
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Qriously with their single poll of each election went from the most favourable for Labour last time to the least favourable this time. And they were pretty close both times (having Labour in the lead last time was obviously a little off but not as off as most other pollsters who gave the Tories a large lead).
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15th December 2019, 04:27 PM
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#28
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 22,001 User: 53
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QUOTE(vidsanta @ Dec 15 2019, 08:53 AM) Michael has been quiet on this issue since Thursday though, for some reason. We have spoken privately and there's no hard feelings between us at least so that's good.  Time to move on.
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15th December 2019, 05:27 PM
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#29
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Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
Posts: 46,160 User: 5,138
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QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Dec 14 2019, 03:44 PM) Northern Ireland has had voter ID for my entire enfranchised life (and a long time before that), so for me it's just part and parcel of the democratic process. Although if you're not used to being asked for proof of ID before and then asked to provide it, I can imagine it being annoying. I nearly got refused for having an Irish ID card on Thursday - had to point it out to the polling station guy in the picture in front of him. |
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21st December 2019, 01:36 PM
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#30
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 I'm a paragon so don't perceive me
Joined: 3 February 2011
Posts: 37,421 User: 12,929         |
QUOTE(mald487 @ Dec 21 2019, 12:29 PM) I really don´t like the notion that it doesn´t matter who Labour choose as there is no way they are going to win the next GE. Maybe not, but it absolutely DOES matter. They need to lay the groundwork NOW, at start winning back peoples trust. The tories are going to lead opinion polls comfortably for a while I would say, especially with being seen as "getting Brexit done" during 2020, but Labour need to start putting in the grind now. The more progress they can make in 2024 the less of an uphill battle they will have in 2029. Of course I would love to see them do it in 5 years, and I hope they win back as many seats as possible, but I´m just being realistic. Quoting mald's post from the other thread as I wanted to geek out about what future opinion polls will say for 2024 more than discuss Labour selection strategies because the bolded line inspired me to predict. The polls that I think are appropriate to use are the opinion polls following 1983, 1987, 1992 and 2005. Similar margins in Parliament with (in 3/4 cases) comfortable majorities for the winners and the losing party (in 3/4 cases) had a new leader come in straight after the election with a strong need to reinvent itself after a couple of election losses on the trot. In 1983, Foot held on until October, after which Labour saw a significant point uptick in their polling but they didn't get ahead of the Conservatives until 1984, were neck-and-neck through the next few years before being solidly behind in 1987. Kinnock was leading a harshly divided party, and in the circumstance that the Tories successfully manage to navigate the Brexit rapids without too much public backlash and the Labour leadership, left or centrist, is engaged with a hefty battle with the other side of this party, then I'd guess opinion polls will broadly follow the 1983-87 route and we'll be back at this position again in 2024. This is the bad route. If Labour take over a year to get ahead of the Conservatives in polls, it's not good. 1992-1997 is the wishful thinking one with huge majorities clear over the Tories before a year had passed on the election. We'd want a Brexit shock not unlike Black Wednesday and a truly inspiring Labour leader to be taking this route. I very much doubt it's forthcoming, even if for whatever reason there is another Labour leadership election halfway through this Parliament like in this one and a challenger not currently talked of emerges (though of course hopefully not from anyone's premature death). The one factor in common with this one is that the new Labour leader will be in place at a similar timescale to 1992, it only caused a moderate uptick and most of the big shock was after Black Wednesday. I am not hoping for Black Wednesday 2.0. It's unlikely to happen with the transition period but possibly 2021 if 2020 is grossly mismanaged. If Labour are ahead by the middle of 2020, possibly this but more likely... 1987-1992 can also be looked at but with Kinnock staying on, not as immediately helpful. However opinion polls at the election were similar to what we had now, and if Labour elect a decently inspiring leader and the Conservatives suffer a moderate amount of scandals, I'd say we're going in for a tossup election like 1992. If Labour manage to get level once the main events of Brexit unfold, could be on this route. And 2005-2010, with parties reversed, is the most realistic hopeful scenario (for Labour). Cameron wasn't elected until December following the May in 2005, but much like 1987-1992, neck-and-neck until the more serious financial crash of 2008, at which point Conservatives took the lead. If a big economic hit for Brexit takes a few years to really become apparent, then possibly this way. Hung parliament or tossup could be a possibility. 6-12 months before Labour are consistently ahead, with a leader like Starmer I'd say one of these ways. There'll almost certainly be an uptick when the new leader gets in place (if indeed any post-election polls come out before it happens), and how big an uptick depends on how fractured the election looks and the eventual result. |
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21st December 2019, 02:04 PM
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#31
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BuzzJack Enthusiast
Joined: 1 June 2013
Posts: 527 User: 19,091
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QUOTE(Holly and Izzy @ Dec 21 2019, 01:36 PM) Quoting mald's post from the other thread as I wanted to geek out about what future opinion polls will say for 2024 more than discuss Labour selection strategies because the bolded line inspired me to predict. The polls that I think are appropriate to use are the opinion polls following 1983, 1987, 1992 and 2005. Similar margins in Parliament with (in 3/4 cases) comfortable majorities for the winners and the losing party (in 3/4 cases) had a new leader come in straight after the election with a strong need to reinvent itself after a couple of election losses on the trot. In 1983, Foot held on until October, after which Labour saw a significant point uptick in their polling but they didn't get ahead of the Conservatives until 1984, were neck-and-neck through the next few years before being solidly behind in 1987. Kinnock was leading a harshly divided party, and in the circumstance that the Tories successfully manage to navigate the Brexit rapids without too much public backlash and the Labour leadership, left or centrist, is engaged with a hefty battle with the other side of this party, then I'd guess opinion polls will broadly follow the 1983-87 route and we'll be back at this position again in 2024. This is the bad route. If Labour take over a year to get ahead of the Conservatives in polls, it's not good. 1992-1997 is the wishful thinking one with huge majorities clear over the Tories before a year had passed on the election. We'd want a Brexit shock not unlike Black Wednesday and a truly inspiring Labour leader to be taking this route. I very much doubt it's forthcoming, even if for whatever reason there is another Labour leadership election halfway through this Parliament like in this one and a challenger not currently talked of emerges (though of course hopefully not from anyone's premature death). The one factor in common with this one is that the new Labour leader will be in place at a similar timescale to 1992, it only caused a moderate uptick and most of the big shock was after Black Wednesday. I am not hoping for Black Wednesday 2.0. It's unlikely to happen with the transition period but possibly 2021 if 2020 is grossly mismanaged. If Labour are ahead by the middle of 2020, possibly this but more likely... 1987-1992 can also be looked at but with Kinnock staying on, not as immediately helpful. However opinion polls at the election were similar to what we had now, and if Labour elect a decently inspiring leader and the Conservatives suffer a moderate amount of scandals, I'd say we're going in for a tossup election like 1992. If Labour manage to get level once the main events of Brexit unfold, could be on this route. And 2005-2010, with parties reversed, is the most realistic hopeful scenario (for Labour). Cameron wasn't elected until December following the May in 2005, but much like 1987-1992, neck-and-neck until the more serious financial crash of 2008, at which point Conservatives took the lead. If a big economic hit for Brexit takes a few years to really become apparent, then possibly this way. Hung parliament or tossup could be a possibility. 6-12 months before Labour are consistently ahead, with a leader like Starmer I'd say one of these ways. There'll almost certainly be an uptick when the new leader gets in place (if indeed any post-election polls come out before it happens), and how big an uptick depends on how fractured the election looks and the eventual result. It's very difficult to say what will happen. Politics in the last 5 years has been anything but predictable .You also have to take into account the Tories gerrymandering with the boundaries(although as has been stated on here, that may even end up working against them). If I had to guess I would say 2024 will probably bare similarities to 1992. Labour making some gains with somebody hopefully a bit more central than Corbyn but the Tories still being able to put together a respectable majority. I think it's near certain they will lose at least some seats next time around, but again, who can say for sure. This post has been edited by mald487: 21st December 2019, 02:06 PM |
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21st December 2019, 02:18 PM
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#32
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Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
Posts: 44,107 User: 18,639
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It all depends on if the UK is still the UK by then.
Have faith. They might be turning this into a one party state, but we can still get the evil bast*rd tories out! |
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21st December 2019, 02:31 PM
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#33
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Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364
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QUOTE(December Dong @ Dec 21 2019, 02:18 PM) It all depends on if the UK is still the UK by then. Have faith. They might be turning this into a one party state, but we can still get the evil bast*rd tories out! Then surely, by definition, it cannot be a 'one party state'... |
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21st December 2019, 02:35 PM
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#34
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Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
Posts: 44,107 User: 18,639
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But it is. Even the BBTory attacks the opposition and protects the Tory. It is now just like Russia. We have a pretence of democracy
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21st December 2019, 02:42 PM
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#35
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Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364
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QUOTE(December Dong @ Dec 21 2019, 02:35 PM) But it is. Even the BBTory attacks the opposition and protects the Tory. It is now just like Russia. We have a pretence of democracy Nonsense - that would mean Labour in 1997 was also a one party state... 
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21st December 2019, 02:43 PM
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#36
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Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
Posts: 44,107 User: 18,639
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Labour hadn't attacked every democratic institution and turned the media into a state cheerleading propaganda service. Sorry.
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21st December 2019, 02:46 PM
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#37
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Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364
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QUOTE(December Dong @ Dec 21 2019, 02:43 PM) Labour hadn't attacked every democratic institution and turned the media into a state cheerleading propaganda service. Sorry. So in other words, your definition of a one party state is infinitely flexible so that you can turn it back on the Tories?  |
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21st December 2019, 02:52 PM
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#38
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Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
Posts: 44,107 User: 18,639
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QUOTE(vidsanta @ Dec 21 2019, 02:46 PM) So in other words, your definition of a one party state is infinitely flexible so that you can turn it back on the Tories? No. The Tories are mirroring Russia. It is entirely different. Even the threat of ID made 38% switch to postal votes. What happens? They vote early. Who did that disadvantage? Labour, who are always on the backfoot thanks tooooo ... media brainwashing. Tories want to gerrymander, have the entire media in their pockets, have bbtory filled with Laura Kussenbergs et al, want ID, want to scupper the courts, placed adverts warning about the best politician we've had in a generation, Corbyn, outside polling stations, lied, evaded scrutiny, and even used taxpayer money on anti-Corbyn propaganda in a "hidden" propaganda centre in Scotland. Russia 2.0. |
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21st December 2019, 03:00 PM
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#39
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I'm a paragon so don't perceive me
Joined: 3 February 2011
Posts: 37,421 User: 12,929 |
as much as I do truly enjoy these witty and original ripostés that we regularly partake in...
might I suggest that for the sake of our sanity over the next 5 years we a) stop mandating that democratic results create some sort of hallowed opinion that mustn't be criticised and b) stop demonising our political opponents such that there is no hope of changing their minds to vote with us for the next time we are called upon it's a new term, there will be a whole new set of circular arguments to enjoy, peppered of course with occasional remixes of relevant older ones |
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21st December 2019, 03:06 PM
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#40
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Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
Posts: 44,107 User: 18,639
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I'm not blaming the people. I'm blamimg that evil political party, born from the desire to curtail the power of the people as the tories desperately wheeled around to avoid revolutuion and find a new avenue to protect the riches of the rich. That is how the party was born, made to stamp on the interests of the rest and promote and protect those of the rich. It has never changed.
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