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BuzzJack Music Forum _ UK Charts _ Early Predictions // Little Mix V Bruno Mars V Metallica

Posted by: Joe. 14th October 2016, 09:57 AM

Unless you count Emeli Sande's release the week before, this is the biggest album release week in Q4 (unless there's more to announce).

Other releases that week include DNCE and Louisa Johnson.

If you have the opinion of "I need to hear Little Mix's song", wait and vote after Sunday.

Posted by: honeyG 14th October 2016, 10:34 AM

Metallica have a HUGE fambase so I think they'll get the number one. The other two are strong album sellers too but their sales will be more spread out.

About 70k for the number one I think considering the time of year

Posted by: Joe. 14th October 2016, 10:38 AM

Little Mix sold 60k in their first week last year and have grown in popularity hugely, so i think they'll do around 75k this year. i think Metallica could do around 90k though, unless they under-perform. I think Bruno might be the biggest overall seller, but as Dan said will be spread out.

Posted by: liamk97 14th October 2016, 11:13 AM

Very hard to predict actually. I think Bruno, Little Mix and Metallica will have the Top 3 on lock, with Emeli Sande falling to #4 and Olly Murs falling to #5 (not taking into account any promo we're not yet aware of that could influence the matter) and I'd be inclined to say the Top 3 would be in the order I gave, although I feel it could be close. As Joe said, ~75k would be a sensible climb in sales from the debut sales of Little Mix's previous album; if Bruno was to sell half the debut sales of his previous album (136k) that would put him around the 70k mark; and Metallica's last studio album sold 75k to debut at #1 back in 2008 - I realise how the market has changed in that time but Metallica seem like the sort of act who can keep hold of their fanbase really well, plus I just feel like these sort of acts seem to defy the collapsing market anyway.

I feel like it could be too early for any of these albums to pass 100k in their first week (excluding Adele, it took until the w/e 17th December for albums to start hitting 100k) but I think 70k+ seems very likely. Maybe Bruno or Little Mix could come close to reaching 100k on Christmas week? Little Mix did after all reach 70k on that week last year.

Posted by: Joe. 14th October 2016, 11:22 AM

Expanding on what Liam said, even though I voted for a front-loaded Metallica, I do think Little Mix could surprise, especially with Bruno Mars' single not quite being the instant top 3 hit people were expecting.

Posted by: Defaze 14th October 2016, 11:25 AM

I have a feeling it'll be a repeat of the Little Mix/Ellie Goulding/Elvis situation last year, with Little Mix managing to outsell Bruno despite pre-release expectations, but then ultimately losing out to Metallica. I'd absolutely love the girls to nab their first #1 album though.

Posted by: Ethan 14th October 2016, 07:33 PM

the way 2016 is going i fully expect metallica to take the #1 on sales of ~50k~~

Posted by: Đřßßř 14th October 2016, 07:48 PM

Surely Metallica have this in the bag, massive sales too.

Posted by: mr_pmt 14th October 2016, 07:49 PM

Something tells me Little Mix are gonna snatch this.

Posted by: cqmerqn 14th October 2016, 10:03 PM

A few predictions of mine...

LM will be even more HUGE this time around, debuting with about 80-90K!
Bruno Mars will flop (for him, anyway), debuting with about 30-40K.
Emeli Sandé will be lucky to scrape 20K.

Regarding Louisa Johnson and DNCE, I'd say that they could both debut with 10M

Posted by: Jonjo 15th October 2016, 12:06 AM

My predix

Bruno - 80k
Metallica - 79k
Little Mix - 73.5k

I honestly believe it'll be THAT close. I hope Little Mix can surprise but I'm not so sure. Especially when they won't have XF the week the album is released so, unless they can nab Graham Norton then I doubt they'll be able to beat Metallica or Bruno.

Posted by: caseclosed 15th October 2016, 04:46 AM

I think it'll be Metallica, Bruno and Little Mix, but I have hopes of Little Mix snatching that #1 that's long overdue. If that's not possible I'd love for them to debut higher than Bruno at least for a number of reasons, but mainly for people to stop dismissing the power of those negatively deemed as "local" acts.

Posted by: soundseekerz 15th October 2016, 07:37 AM

I've just checked I-Tunes and Bruno Mars's album release has been moved to the 19th. That is a strange move if that turns out to be true

I would love to see Little Mix nab the top spot as they have had a no.2, No. 3 and No. 4 album. I still think it will be a battle between Metallica and Bruno with Metallica nabbing it.

Posted by: SevenSeize 16th October 2016, 10:43 PM

Little Mix are my call~ could easily pass 100k given how big they are now. And I reckon the Bruno will get the #2 just ahead of Metallica in a fairly safe Top 3

Posted by: leewallace 16th October 2016, 11:05 PM

Little Mix.

Although Bruno's album seems to be released a day later according to iTunes? If Bruno manages to get an X Factor slot / Graham Norton slot upon release then Bruno could snatch it.

Posted by: Envoirment 16th October 2016, 11:12 PM

I think Bruno will get it quite easily.

#1 Bruno Mars 105k+
#2 Metallica 85k
#3 Little Mix 75k

Especially if Bruno performs on the X-factor.

Posted by: Joe. 16th October 2016, 11:32 PM

I reckon Little Mix will get either Graham Norton or even an itv special on release week to counteract a Buno X Factor performance.

Posted by: BrookeOlivia 19th October 2016, 11:57 AM

I think Little Mix could actually do this, They opened with 60k last year with get weird and have become alot more popular since then, We shall see though but I wouldn't rule them out.

Posted by: girl_from_oz 19th October 2016, 12:23 PM

Metallica have been available to pre-order for a lot longer but I think LIttle Mix might pinch it.

Posted by: Bjork 19th October 2016, 12:47 PM

think it's between Little Mix and Metallica, think Bruno will under perform , he could debut under 50K at #3 while LM and Metallica will be closer to 100K. I'd say #1 LM #2 Metallica

Posted by: Davidson 19th October 2016, 01:26 PM

I predict:

Little Mix - 102k
Bruno Mars - 65k
Metallica - 61k

Looking at how huge LM have become I can see them winning this by a big margin. I may be wrong but I don't see this as much of a race anymore.

Posted by: Ariels 26th October 2016, 06:41 PM

When you consider the electrifying momentum that Little Mix have at the moment, I really think (and hope) they could manage to take the number 1 album. When you consider that both versions of their album are in the pre-order top ten, whilst Bruno and Metallica are sitting at #19 and #20, you've got to place Little Mix as the favourites.

Posted by: Dannoween 26th October 2016, 06:50 PM

Yeah I think Little Mix have this now. Their comeback single was far bigger than I would have expected.

Posted by: Joe. 31st October 2016, 12:54 PM

Bump.

Any prediction changes?

Posted by: BigMixer 31st October 2016, 01:19 PM

QUOTE(Joe. @ Oct 31 2016, 01:54 PM) *
Bump.

Any prediction changes?


Well when you made this thread I was thinking all 3 acts could scrap 100k.

Right now :

- Little Mix : 115k
- Metallica : 90k
- Bruno Mars : 75k

Posted by: pippa 31st October 2016, 02:19 PM

This really is Little Mix's time to finally achieve a number 1 album as i think they are in their golden era now. I will be so disappointed if they dont get the number 1.

I predict
1 Little Mix
2 Bruno Mars
3 Metallica

That said, i would not be surprised if Metallica enter at number 4 behind Elvis.


Posted by: Common Sense 1st November 2016, 09:08 AM

Yep based on how well the single has done I'd say Little Mix will debut at the top. Before I thought Metallica.

Posted by: BrookeOlivia 10th November 2016, 03:52 PM

Only 8 days to go now before these are all out, I think Little Mix could do this now.

Posted by: Joe. 11th November 2016, 09:45 AM

QUOTE(BrookeOlivia @ Nov 10 2016, 03:52 PM) *
Only 8 days to go now before these are all out, I think Little Mix could do this now.



Little Mix look like they're a little bit behind Bruno on Itunes, but on Amazon they've been consistently high (higher) than Metallica/Bruno. If i recall correctly, only around 20% of Little Mix's opening sales last year came from digital sales.

Posted by: Serg Mix 14th November 2016, 11:25 PM

Glory Days doing better on Amazon still, hope they can pull this off. funky.gif

Posted by: 🎄cqmerqn🎄 14th November 2016, 11:27 PM

Little Mix have this surely?

Posted by: mr_pmt 15th November 2016, 12:32 AM

I can't see anything other than them doing it now.

Posted by: raphaelalm 15th November 2016, 01:47 AM

Little Mix:
#6 & #37 on Amazon
#2 on iTunes

Bruno:
#26 on Amazon
#3 on iTunes

Little Mix are so huge in physical copies, so i think they can be number #1

My predictions:
1 Little Mix 89-96k
2 Metallica 79-83k
3 Bruno Mars 72k-78k


Posted by: BrookeOlivia 18th November 2016, 11:51 AM

Any late Predictions since we normally get some sales/chart info tomorrow from MintRoyale

Posted by: Jonjo 18th November 2016, 11:56 AM

Current positions:

iTunes:
02. Little Mix - Glory Days (Deluxe Version)
03. Metallica - Hardwired... To Self-Destruct (Deluxe Version)
04. Bruno Mars - 24K Magic
06. Little Mix - Glory Days
08. Metallica - Hardwired... To Self-Destruct

Amazon:
03. Little Mix - Glory Days (Deluxe Version)
05. Metallica - Hardwired... To Self-Destruct (Deluxe Version)
07. Bruno Mars - 24K Magic
17. Little Mix - Glory Days

Posted by: Mart!n 18th November 2016, 11:59 AM

I also add this in here as well, in case it didn't get noticed yesterday:

Rock Show with Daniel P Carter: Metallica exclusive
| BBC RADIO 1 19:00 SUN 20 NOV
Metallica kick off their visit to the UK this week with a session at the historic Maida Vale Studios as they release 'Hardwired... to Self-Destruct', their first album in eight years.



Posted by: BrookeOlivia 18th November 2016, 12:08 PM

Promo lined up for Little Mix so far that am aware of is

Performance on Children In Need tonight
Sunday Brunch show
And no doubt an album advert slot during this weekends x factor

I'm sure there will be more things through the week

I don't know what promo Bruno as lined up anyone got any ideas? I'm guessing he will get shown in adverts during x factor too.

Posted by: Jonjo 18th November 2016, 12:11 PM

Metallica have a video that's gone viral atm ('Enter The Sandman' on Jimmy Fallon (played with Classroom instruments)). So that'll give them some increased interest.

Posted by: Serg Mix 18th November 2016, 12:12 PM

QUOTE(BrookeOlivia @ Nov 18 2016, 01:08 PM) *
Promo lined up for Little Mix so far that am aware of is

Performance on Children In Need tonight
Sunday Brunch show
And no doubt an album advert slot during this weekends x factor

I'm sure there will be more things through the week

I don't know what promo Bruno as lined up anyone got any ideas? I'm guessing he will get shown in adverts during x factor too.


They will go Europe from Monday, so no promo in UK after Brunch.

Posted by: BlackMagic 18th November 2016, 12:20 PM

I think Emeli Sandé will get a second week at #1... kink.gif

Posted by: Joe. 18th November 2016, 01:13 PM

QUOTE(BlackMagic @ Nov 18 2016, 12:20 PM) *
I think Emeli Sandé will get a second week at #1... kink.gif


!!!

Posted by: SevenSeize 18th November 2016, 01:16 PM

My shot in the dark sales prediction would look something like this-

1 Little Mix 100k+
2 Metallica 70k
3 Bruno Mars 60k maybe?

Posted by: BrookeOlivia 18th November 2016, 03:22 PM

I think it will be..

#1 - Little Mix - 85k
#2 - Metallica - 80k
#3 - Bruno Mars - 70k

I think it will be a close week, But I think / hope Little Mix take the lead but however all of the top 3 will be selling a good amount.

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