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BuzzJack Music Forum _ News and Politics _ Irish General Election
Posted by: Steve201 Jan 16 2020, 10:28 PM
So the Irish general election to elect the 32nd Dail is on the 8/2/20.
Current Fine Gael leader Leo Varadkar will be seeking reelection for a second term.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Irish_general_election
Posted by: Harve Feb 1 2020, 04:41 PM
Polls are showing that Fine Gael and Fianna *Fail have slipped below a combined 50% for the first time...ever?
*The irony at now having a French keyboard - a language with plenty of diacritics - is that it's now extremely cumbersome to write those like 'á' that only exist in other languages. R.I.P my UK Extended Keyboard.
Posted by: Brett-Butler Feb 1 2020, 05:11 PM
I haven't followed the Irish General Election campaign as closely as the UK one, but here's some assorted thoughts/predictions of what I think will happen.
One of the interesting thing about the Irish GE is that like the NI Assembly, its members are elected based upon the STV form of PR within constituencies, meaning that a wider range of parties have a chance of getting a seat in the Dáil. Indeed, when it was dissolved just before the election, there were 9 different parties represented across the political spectrum, as well as nearly 10% of its members being independent of any political party.
It also means that whatever happens in this election, we're likely to see a coalition government running the Republic come 9th February. Fine Gael are almost definitely going to fall behind Fianna Fáil as the largest party, which means that FF will likely be the leading party of the next government, although who they will align with is anybody's guess. I do feel that Sinn Fein's support in the run-up to the election has been somewhat overstated - in every election in both sides of the border since 2017, their support has reduced somewhat, so I would not be surprised if they only improved slightly, or didn't improve at all, compared to the 2016 election.
From a European perspective, ROI is almost unique amongst its European brethren in that it is one of the only countries on the continent that has not had a major populist and/or far-right party enter their parliament within the last half a decade (even Spain, who had a fascist dictator within living memory, has gone that way in the last few years). In 2020, despite a few parties that could be described that way fighting the election, I cannot see that changing this year.
Posted by: Steve201 Feb 1 2020, 06:43 PM
The Freedom Party is it? They're an interesting bunch!
SF looking at around 21% would mean an increased presence in the dail but as you say il believe it when I see it. It helps them imo when FG/FF refuse to consider a coalition with them!
Posted by: Cal Feb 3 2020, 05:06 PM
The National Party are the ones running a bunch of candidates this year (one being in my constituency) and they're gross. They're basically Youth Defence rebranded because they knew they'd lose the Abortion referendum by a landslide so now they're going after immigrants. They won't win a single seat which is great but they're an ominous bunch with links to the neo-Nazi movement in Germany. This was all well-known when they were Youth Defence so I guess you can't polish a turd. 
I've never voted Fine Gael, Fianna Fail or Sinn Fein and I won't be doing so any time soon. If I had to choose it would be Fine Gael because even though we have some major problems facing us they're a hundred times better than Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein combined. Their handling of Brexit was flawless and I think most people would agree on that.
Fine Gael will lose a handful of seats on Saturday, Fianna Fail will gain some (most people have not forgotten what they did - we're all still paying for that bloody Bank Guarantee) and Sinn Fein will be the big winners. It's the younger generation who don't have to negative view of Sinn Fein that will get them a huge increase in seats. They're economically illiterate as well so if they do form a Government I look forward to them rolling back on every promise they've made.
The Greens will do well after being obliterated from Government in 2011. They did remarkably well in the EU and local elections in May and they've grown stronger since. Labour will remain obsolete and will probably win 5 or 6 seats, if even. The Social Democrats will win as much as they can (I'd say 3 or 4) but they're not established enough to do any better. They need to run big names in more constituencies to have any impact.
I'm voting Green and SocDems on Saturday and not sure who else I want my transfers to go to. I suspect this election will be a bloodbath when it comes to transfers which always makes it exciting. I'm sure Galway West will be the last to declare yet again as they tend to have about 20 candidates on the ballot so there's usually between 13 to 15 rounds of counting 
Posted by: Steve201 Feb 3 2020, 10:54 PM
Apparently SF aren't standing in as many seats as the could have and are looking to build to get a second election later in the year. Hope PBP retain their seats too. What's the actual difference between FG & FF like?
Posted by: Doctor Blind Feb 4 2020, 10:23 AM
Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI
(Jan 30-Feb 1, MoE 2.8%)
Sinn Féin 25 (+4)
Fianna Fáil 23 (-2)
Fine Gael 20 (-3)
Greens 8
Labour 4 (-1)
Social Democrats 2
Solidarity-PBP 2
Inds & ors 10
Posted by: Iz~ Feb 4 2020, 11:15 AM
Is there any scope for Sinn Féin to build a coalition with a party like the Social Democrats or the Greens? Left-wing nationalists are an element I sometimes find hard to predict.
Because with numbers like that poll, if not, it seems like even if SF get the most votes, the workable result is that it could just be the same as the current confidence and supply arrangement except FF takes over to become the senior partner from FG.
though having looked at the current seat numbers, it'll be quite the upset if the government doesn't include either of FF or FG.
Posted by: Doctor Blind Feb 4 2020, 11:45 AM
I'm not sure to be honest with you, I know very little about Irish politics let alone the voting procedures, but it sounds like they aren't fielding enough candidates to put up a proper fight.
Their leader Mary Lou McDonald did say this though:
OOOOOOOFFFFFFT.
Posted by: Cal Feb 4 2020, 01:44 PM
To be fair they have never had this amount of support before. People are tired of the FG-FF seesaw we've had since the last 50 years and people want an alternative. SF was doing well in the opinion polls in 2016 (around 20% I think) but they ended up only getting 13%. They were also hammered in the EU and local elections in May so they probably weren't expecting this. I don't think any of us were. I think people my age and older still can't separate them from the IRA links so I'm finding it hard to get my head around the jump in support. That said, their social policies are on point and their economic policies are pure fantasy but it all makes a very nice package and it's obviously resonating with a lot of people.
The debate tonight will decide where this election will go. FG and FF will have to be very careful about how they approach their disdain for SF.
Posted by: Steve201 Feb 4 2020, 10:51 PM
There's the problem for FF though, a lot of their grassroots would be happy working with SF.
SF hope to get a decent result to push for another election later this year where they put out a full 80-85 candidates.
You talk about the IRA but FF were originally part of SF and formed from the IRA, double standards maybe?
Posted by: Cal Feb 5 2020, 09:56 AM
Not really as there's a major difference between the IRA (or any resistance movement) from the start of the 1900s to the ones operating up to the late 90s. I don't think anybody would it hold it against either FF or SF in participating in the original fight to end British occupation. In addition to that, the IRA when it first started had lines that they would not cross (no civilian casualties etc.). It starts to get a little murky when SF deny any knowledge of any of its members being in the modern IRA when there's clear proof some of their most senior members were heavily involved in the Troubles (and some were actually convicted by the Special Criminal Court). Their candidate for Dublin North-West is a former IRA member and explosives expert and was sentenced to 10 years in the 80s. It's cases like this that make people very reluctant to vote for SF.
I get why people are angry and why they want change, I just don't think SF are the ones who deserve the opportunity to deliver it.
Posted by: Steve201 Feb 5 2020, 10:56 PM
But why was the original fight against the British The so called 'right or good fight' but in NI it was different? Many members of Fianna Fáil were originally IRA members indeed Sean Lemass the Taoiseach as recently as 1959-66 was involved in the original Bloody Sunday in 1920.
Many members of SF now do also admit to being members during the conflict.
Posted by: Cal Feb 6 2020, 09:35 PM
Because the original fight was against the British political establishment for independence. The (Provisional) IRA lost the battle in the North when they started targeting civilians. Most people (myself included) would support the civil rights movement for Catholics in the North, but there was a line between a movement and a terror campaign and the (P)IRA crossed it.
Some SF members had no choice but to admit it because they served time and it's literally public record. I'm also not really buying the "people under X age don't remember the conflict" argument people are spinning. If you're old enough to switch your vote to Sinn Fein then you're old enough to remember the Omagh bombing. Of course most people running in the election for SF had nothing to do with any of the conflict but the party policy is controlled by an unelected (and anonymous) group so party members and representatives literally have no say in the direction or image of their party or the policies it supports. In practice it is probably one of the least democratic parties in the country.
Posted by: LexC Feb 6 2020, 09:46 PM
It's certainly going to be fascinating to watch how this plays out in an STV election (still dreaming of the UK ditching FPTP but I'll be dreaming for a long time). Because if people are really rallying behind Sinn Fein enough to get them a surplus of the quota it'll be interesting to see where the transfers go if people are sick of FF/FG - probably the Greens will get most of them but Labour/Social Democrats/PBP should get a boost. And even on those seat projections the main two parties wouldn't have 80 seats between them so some sort of third paty or independents would have to be involved somehow.
Posted by: Steve201 Feb 6 2020, 10:50 PM
QUOTE(LexC @ Feb 6 2020, 09:46 PM)
It's certainly going to be fascinating to watch how this plays out in an STV election (still dreaming of the UK ditching FPTP but I'll be dreaming for a long time). Because if people are really rallying behind Sinn Fein enough to get them a surplus of the quota it'll be interesting to see where the transfers go if people are sick of FF/FG - probably the Greens will get most of them but Labour/Social Democrats/PBP should get a boost. And even on those seat projections the main two parties wouldn't have 80 seats between them so some sort of third paty or independents would have to be involved somehow.
I think Labour will only get 1/2 more TDs and PBP will be similar, Greens will get 5/6 more and a lot of independents.
Posted by: Steve201 Feb 6 2020, 10:54 PM
QUOTE(Cal @ Feb 6 2020, 09:35 PM)
Because the original fight was against the British political establishment for independence. The (Provisional) IRA lost the battle in the North when they started targeting civilians. Most people (myself included) would support the civil rights movement for Catholics in the North, but there was a line between a movement and a terror campaign and the (P)IRA crossed it.
Some SF members had no choice but to admit it because they served time and it's literally public record. I'm also not really buying the "people under X age don't remember the conflict" argument people are spinning. If you're old enough to switch your vote to Sinn Fein then you're old enough to remember the Omagh bombing. Of course most people running in the election for SF had nothing to do with any of the conflict but the party policy is controlled by an unelected (and anonymous) group so party members and representatives literally have no say in the direction or image of their party or the policies it supports. In practice it is probably one of the least democratic parties in the country.
But there were civilians killed during the original 1916-23 conflict as well as there is in all conflicts unfortunately. I would also argue there was a terror campaign by all sides during various moments of the conflict not just the IRA, not that that makes it ok.
I don't fully know how they form party policy but most democratic parties in the western world decide these things in similar ways it's just 'seen' to be democratic but actually isn't.
I know people will still remember legacy events such as the Omagh bomb(albeit SF had nothin to do with that) but will it have an impact given the fact that during the last election Gerry Adams was leader and the media kept the story about Jean McConville high on the agenda. I mean look this week when SF are now 25% and topping the poll and all of a sudden the Paul Quinn story comes around, no coincidence. Exactly the same as JC and Antisemetism in Britain. It's the establishment rounding on a party they don't want in government.
At any rate how many transfers will they get anyway?
Posted by: vidcapper Feb 7 2020, 06:11 AM
QUOTE(LexC @ Feb 6 2020, 09:46 PM)
It's certainly going to be fascinating to watch how this plays out in an STV election (still dreaming of the UK ditching FPTP but I'll be dreaming for a long time).
If the UK parliament
was elected by STV, how would that affect the Northern Irish seats, I wonder?
Posted by: Steve201 Feb 7 2020, 08:10 AM
The assembly is elected by STV I think but yeh the MPs might be affected a little especially in newly elected areas for SFers where there would be less transfers no doubt.
Posted by: The S***e Feb 7 2020, 09:59 AM
QUOTE(Cal @ Feb 3 2020, 05:06 PM)
The National Party are the ones running a bunch of candidates this year (one being in my constituency) and they're gross. They're basically Youth Defence rebranded because they knew they'd lose the Abortion referendum by a landslide so now they're going after immigrants. They won't win a single seat which is great but they're an ominous bunch with links to the neo-Nazi movement in Germany. This was all well-known when they were Youth Defence so I guess you can't polish a turd.
Didn't know there was a far right party in Ireland, I assume they support an Irexit too
Posted by: vidcapper Feb 7 2020, 10:34 AM
QUOTE(The S***e @ Feb 7 2020, 09:59 AM)
Didn't know there was a far right party in Ireland, I assume they support an Irexit too
Or might that be Eirexit?
Posted by: Steve201 Feb 7 2020, 11:13 AM
They had a candidate in Kerry who was born in California and his election card said he wanted to reduce immigration to Ireland 😂. Oh the irony!!
Probably reading between the lines he meant immigration from certain countries/races.
Posted by: Steve201 Feb 7 2020, 11:17 AM
The last opinion poll this week had
SINN Fein 25%
Fianna Fáil 24%
Fine Gael 21%
Green Party 8%
PBP 3%
Social Democrats 3%
Labour PArty 6%
Posted by: Suedehead2 Feb 8 2020, 08:10 PM
Do they start counting tonight or tomorrow morning?
Posted by: Brett-Butler Feb 8 2020, 08:15 PM
Tomorrow I believe, although an exit poll comes out at 10pm.
Posted by: Suedehead2 Feb 8 2020, 08:32 PM
That's what I'd assumed. We won't know much until tomorrow afternoon / evening then. STV is a great system but it takes an age to count!
Posted by: Brett-Butler Feb 8 2020, 10:01 PM
Exit poll has:
Fine Gael - 22.4%
Sinn Fein - 22.3%
Fianna Fail - 22.2%.
Ruddy heck.
Posted by: Brett-Butler Feb 8 2020, 10:03 PM
Also: Independents: 11.2% Aontu 1.8%, other parties: 1.5%.
Posted by: LexC Feb 8 2020, 10:19 PM
Well, those numbers seem to indicate there'll be another election within the year!
Posted by: Steve201 Feb 8 2020, 10:24 PM
QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Feb 8 2020, 08:32 PM)
That's what I'd assumed. We won't know much until tomorrow afternoon / evening then. STV is a great system but it takes an age to count!
Yeh could be Wednesday!
Posted by: Harve Feb 8 2020, 10:33 PM
QUOTE(LexC @ Feb 8 2020, 11:19 PM)
Well, those numbers seem to indicate there'll be another election within the year!
Despite insisting otherwise, FG and FF could potentially team up and lock out SF/other parties if they're worried about doing even worse in a subsequent election. Exit polls in an STV system tell us less than exit polls in a FPTP system, but I imagine they will end up with enough
seats between them to do something if they're really that desperate.
(Irish ppl reading this: do let me know if this is a bad take)
Posted by: Cal Feb 8 2020, 10:55 PM
I actually HOWLED when I saw FG won on first preferences. Obviously margin of error and all and transfers are just as important but like how gas is it that even after all of the failures by this Government FF still can't capitalise off the back of it. Byeeee.
I voted:
1 - Greens
2 - Soc Dems
3 - PBP (some of their candidates are awful but my candidate has a long history of civil rights advocacy so she's a hun)
4 - I4C
5 - Labour (don't judge me but they did well in the debates)
V left wing (it's a VERY left-wing Dublin district) but I couldn't put a preference on the rest (all right wing + SF). Depending on your constituency sometimes ALL of your preferences are counted (like, if you number the entire sheet) so careful voting is key. I think my district is OK but I wasn't taking any chances.
QUOTE(Steve201 @ Feb 6 2020, 10:54 PM)
But there were civilians killed during the original 1916-23 conflict as well as there is in all conflicts unfortunately. I would also argue there was a terror campaign by all sides during various moments of the conflict not just the IRA, not that that makes it ok.
I don't fully know how they form party policy but most democratic parties in the western world decide these things in similar ways it's just 'seen' to be democratic but actually isn't.
I know people will still remember legacy events such as the Omagh bomb(albeit SF had nothin to do with that) but will it have an impact given the fact that during the last election Gerry Adams was leader and the media kept the story about Jean McConville high on the agenda. I mean look this week when SF are now 25% and topping the poll and all of a sudden the Paul Quinn story comes around, no coincidence. Exactly the same as JC and Antisemetism in Britain. It's the establishment rounding on a party they don't want in government.
At any rate how many transfers will they get anyway?
100% agree with you but I think any civilian (non-military) casualty in the original fight for independence would not have been premeditated/intentional. The Troubles was an entirely different case where civilians were targeted heavily by both sides. Don't get me wrong, I despise the Unionist side as much as the Republican side, but as SF are the ones running here that's why I'm so against them. If the DUP or any Unionist party even thought about running for election down here I'd chain myself to the Dáil.
I definitely think the media tries to bring down SF, but that's only because the majority of the electorate remember the history. To be honest people will only give SF a chance if they weed out the old guard and confront their history head on. It's slightly similar to Die Linke (their founding/merger parties) in Germany as in it
technically wasn't directly involved in such situations but it kind of was but no-one is willing to admit it.
Posted by: Steve201 Feb 9 2020, 12:19 AM
There were many intentional civilian casualties in the war of independence just think of Bloody Sunday and Croke Park for one major event?!? Also conflicts have changed. My main point of annoyance is the snobby southern nationalist view that the modern IRA are bad whereas the original IRA from 1919-23 were good.
Posted by: Steve201 Feb 9 2020, 01:04 PM
Looks like SF gonna be the biggest vote %, with 35 or so seats and the main opposition. Mary Lou could have been Taoiseach if SF had put forward a full set of candidates.
Posted by: I. :II: z Feb 9 2020, 03:42 PM
Negotiation time, my favourite!
We don't know any official results, do we? Unused to this practice of not staying up all night that the Irish have going on.
Posted by: Brett-Butler Feb 9 2020, 03:54 PM
Only one result is confirmed, and that's the speaker, who is from Fianna Fail (the speaker is automatically re-elected, unlike in the UK, where he has has to run for election again).
Early indications are that Sinn Fein are going to top the 1st preference poll, although are unlikely to win the most seats, due to them standing only half the candidates that FF/FG did. Unless some interesting backroom deals happen, there's probably going to be another election by the summer time.
Posted by: A Capella Sally Feb 9 2020, 04:16 PM
If only we had a system as democratic as Ireland's 
Posted by: LexC Feb 9 2020, 04:21 PM
I've seen some very rough/early estimates that have FF/FG on 81 or 82 seats combined so they'll both probably manage to cling onto power in some form.
Posted by: Brett-Butler Feb 9 2020, 04:21 PM
QUOTE(A Capella Sally @ Feb 9 2020, 05:16 PM)
If only we had a system as democratic as Ireland's
Fun fact - the Irish democratic system of PR was forced upon it by the UK, solely to stop a government that is run solely by one party - https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/diarmaid-ferriter-how-britain-left-us-with-pr-voting-1.2214362.
Posted by: Suedehead2 Feb 9 2020, 04:33 PM
QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Feb 9 2020, 04:21 PM)
Fun fact - the Irish democratic system of PR was forced upon it by the UK, solely to stop a government that is run solely by one party - https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/diarmaid-ferriter-how-britain-left-us-with-pr-voting-1.2214362.
We have a habit of doing things like that. As another example, we wrote Germany's constitution leaving the country far less centralised than the UK.
Posted by: Suedehead2 Feb 9 2020, 04:43 PM
Two Sinn Fein TDs elected so far, largely because they only had one candidate in the constituency so that one candidate got all of SFs first preference votes. Apart from that and the speaker, the only other thing to have happened is that a few candidates have been eliminated.
Posted by: coi Feb 9 2020, 05:03 PM
So as expected, Sinn Fein's Paul Donnelly beat Leo Varadkar in the Dublin West count and so he becomes the fourth TD elected for SF so far. Varadkar fell short of the quota by only 248 votes so he should be safely through too.
Posted by: Steve201 Feb 9 2020, 05:44 PM
QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Feb 9 2020, 04:33 PM)
We have a habit of doing things like that. As another example, we wrote Germany's constitution leaving the country far less centralised than the UK.
I know it's strange then how FPTP is ok for the Uk!
Posted by: Steve201 Feb 9 2020, 05:47 PM
My seats predictions:
Fianna Fáil 42-46
SINN Fein 34-38
Fine Gael 35-41
Labour Party 4-7
Social Democrats 4
PBP 2-4
Greens 5-9
Independents 12
Aontú 1
Posted by: Steve201 Feb 9 2020, 05:53 PM
David Culliane won a whopping 21k votes in Waterford, coulda had 3 SF TDs there instead of just 1!
Posted by: coi Feb 9 2020, 05:55 PM
QUOTE(Steve201 @ Feb 9 2020, 05:53 PM)
David Culliane won a whopping 21k votes in Waterford, coulda had 3 SF TDs there instead of just 1!
Yes, 38.3% of the first preference vote there, way more than needed! That's going to make for an interesting second count with such a large surplus.
Posted by: Steve201 Feb 9 2020, 06:38 PM
Didn't see the other stats but SF would transfer to Greens, SD, PBP and Labour and exceptionally Fianna Fáil!
Posted by: coi Feb 9 2020, 06:49 PM
The SF candidate in Dublin South-Central did even better, getting 39.3% of the first preference votes! A massive lead over the rest of the candidates, the one Finn Gael candidate there came second with 11.7%.
Posted by: Steve201 Feb 9 2020, 08:13 PM
It'll be interesting to see what happens, prob in SFs interest to stand out especially since Varadkar has ruled out a coalition with SF so it'll be FG & FF.
Can't see the rainbow left coalition having enough to form a government.
Posted by: Suedehead2 Feb 9 2020, 09:35 PM
Both SF candidates in Donegal have been elected in the first round 
Posted by: Steve201 Feb 9 2020, 10:50 PM
Pearse Doherty is basically who they're chancellor would be in a SF government so his seat was fairly safe, the second TD elected without needing any transfers is impressive.
Turning into a great election this!!!!
Posted by: coi Feb 10 2020, 01:44 AM
With all 39 constituencies having produced a first count now, Sinn Féin had 24.5% of the first preference votes with Fianna Fáil on 22.2% and Fine Gael on 20.9%.
Posted by: Cal Feb 10 2020, 08:43 PM
Sinn Fein and the Greens are the only two parties to increase their share of FP votes since the last election. Everyone else's vote collapsed or fizzled out. Even Independents got a hammering. Shane Ross losing his seat was delicious. Even Zappone might lose her seat which is actually a shame because as far as Independents go she was one of the better ones. Time will tell with that but she may lose to the Greens on transfers.
Definitely an election to remember and transfers played a key role. Also amazing to see the far-right vote was 1% in total and even Immigration was listed as a concern among just 1% of voters. Housing, Health and Climate were the issues at play and the main parties just couldn't grasp that, which is insane because the public + media have been screaming about them from the rooftops for years.
Posted by: Suedehead2 Feb 10 2020, 08:46 PM
With fourteen seats to go, it is looking like it will be impossible for any combination of two parties to form a majority government. It is already certain that Fine Gail and Fianna Fail will win fewer than half the seats between them.
Posted by: coi Feb 10 2020, 08:55 PM
QUOTE(Cal @ Feb 10 2020, 08:43 PM)
Sinn Fein and the Greens are the only two parties to increase their share of FP votes since the last election. Everyone else's vote collapsed or fizzled out. Even Independents got a hammering. Shane Ross losing his seat was delicious. Even Zappone might lose her seat which is actually a shame because as far as Independents go she was one of the better ones. Time will tell with that but she may lose to the Greens on transfers.
Definitely an election to remember and transfers played a key role. Also amazing to see the far-right vote was 1% in total and even Immigration was listed as a concern among just 1% of voters. Housing, Health and Climate were the issues at play and the main parties just couldn't grasp that, which is insane because the public + media have been screaming about them from the rooftops for years.
Zappone has indeed lost her seat!
Posted by: Steve201 Feb 10 2020, 09:05 PM
QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Feb 10 2020, 08:46 PM)
With fourteen seats to go, it is looking like it will be impossible for any combination of two parties to form a majority government. It is already certain that Fine Gail and Fianna Fail will win fewer than half the seats between them.
Mary Lou looking firstly to the left of centre parties such as the SDs, Greens & PBP to form a coalition.
Posted by: Cal Feb 10 2020, 09:09 PM
Shame about Zappone but not entirely surprising. I think the National Childcare Scheme she introduced was a good idea but it was too little too late.
Posted by: Steve201 Feb 10 2020, 10:38 PM
2020 general election: Dublin South-Central[30][31]
Party Candidate % Count 1 Count 2 Count 3 Count 4 Count 5 Count 6
Sinn Féin Aengus Ó Snodaigh 39.3 17,015
Solidarity–PBP Bríd Smith[n 1] 11.0 4,753 9,547
Green Party Patrick Costello 9.3 4,041 4,449 4,522 4,698 6,917 8,582
Inds. 4 Change Joan Collins 6.5 2,831 4,578 5,076 5,552 6,654 7,807
Fine Gael Catherine Byrne 11.7 5,078 5,192 5,202 5,275 5,788 7,431
Fianna Fáil Catherine Ardagh 11.0 4,782 5,013 5,030 5,184 5,598
Labour Party Rebecca Moynihan 4.8 2,095 2,330 2,375 2,491
Social Democrats Tara Deacy 3.7 1,595 1,921 2,006 2,181
National Party Serina Irvine 1.5 632 770 801
Independent Richard Murray 0.5 207 420 512
Independent Alan Kerrigan 0.3 146 241 257
Independent Robert Foley 0.2 78 114 121
Independent Sean O'Leary 0.1 38 57 71
Electorate: 79,460 Valid: 43,291 Spoilt: 515 (1.2%) Quota: 8,659 Turnout: 43,806 (55.1%)
Posted by: Steve201 Feb 10 2020, 10:42 PM
This seat above has a lot of figures showing Dublin South Central and how transfers meant that SF took People Before Profit, Greens and independent left candidates over the line ahead of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil!
Elected - SINN Fein, People Before Profit, Greens & Unity Leftist candidates even though FG & FF had more first preferences. Yes a central Dublin seat so sympathetic to leftists but a good example of how transfers worked wonderfully.
Posted by: coi Feb 11 2020, 12:10 AM
All 160 seats have now been filled at last!
Fianna Fáil have 38 seats, Sinn Féin have 37, Fine Gael only 35, there are 19 independents, 12 for the Green Party, 6 for Labour, 6 for the Social Democrats, 5 for Solidarity–People Before Profit, 1 for Aontú and 1 for Independents 4 Change.
Posted by: Suedehead2 Feb 11 2020, 06:33 AM
Now the fun begins!
Posted by: steve201 Mar 25 2021, 11:49 PM
Anyone else not think the NI assembly will last until May 2022?
Posted by: Brett-Butler Mar 26 2021, 08:49 AM
QUOTE(steve201 @ Mar 26 2021, 12:49 AM)
Anyone else not think the NI assembly will last until May 2022?
It will stumble its way to there by May 2022, but with massive blowups along the way once the COVID restrictions end.
Posted by: steve201 Mar 26 2021, 01:02 PM
Abortion-language-centenaries-flags!
Posted by: Doctor Blind Nov 18 2021, 10:28 AM
Massive political opinion poll shifts taking place in Ireland, after nearly 100 years of duopoly between FF and FG, Sinn Féin take a massive 16 point lead in the latest poll!
Posted by: steve201 Nov 19 2021, 12:17 AM
I won’t be happy until it turn out like that in a GE!
SF the biggest party in Ireland north and south in 2022 would be nice! Of course both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil both originally came from SF pre 1922!
Posted by: Doctor Blind Dec 12 2021, 07:10 PM
Sinn Féin continue their double-digit lead in the opinion polls for Ireland. Impressive.
Posted by: Steve201 Jan 30 2022, 10:32 AM
50th anniversary of Bloody Sunday today.
Posted by: Steve201 Jan 30 2022, 09:01 PM
Some difference between Keir Starmers and Zara Sultanas tweet about Bloody Sunday today, one looked like it was written by 6 PR men and the ohet was from the heart with facts.
Posted by: Smint Jan 30 2022, 10:00 PM
Think we can guess which one is which. Bet they would like to drop Zara as an MP if they could.
Posted by: Steve201 Jan 30 2022, 11:18 PM
Course they would!
Posted by: Steve201 Feb 3 2022, 01:54 PM
So Edwin Poots has said he is going to tell people to stop checking items that come in from Britain and now Paul Givan is set to resign as FM tonight bringing the NI government down. There must be an election coming up…..
Posted by: Brett-Butler Feb 3 2022, 03:02 PM
Indeed. Intend to start a new thread for the upcoming NI election, which will happen in May at the latest, in the next few days, hopefully with enough context that our non-Norn Iron brethren can attempt to understand just what the heck’s going on (something even I struggle with some days).
Posted by: Steve201 Feb 3 2022, 06:14 PM
Yeh I thought Poots for example couldn’t unilaterally do that without executive agreement but sure it must be ok.
It’s all just playing politics so they can portray themselves as hardline against the protocol which is a result of the type of brexit they wanted leaving the customs Union and single market and now they have the brass neck to act like it’s everyone else’s fault.
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