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Soy Adrián View member profile	May 10 2015, 01:11 PM Post #21
I'm so lonely, I paid a hobo to spoon with me Joined: 6 February 2010 Posts: 12,908 User: 10,596	QUOTE(Danny @ May 10 2015, 12:31 PM) Yeah, I think what's often forgotten is the type of voters Labour needs to win in the South are in many cases more working-class (we're largely talking about Kent and Essex after all), and in many ways would be more responsive to a no-nonsense down-to-earth normal human. The only worry is a cultural jingoistic campaign about "northerners coming down to rob the southerners" might be whipped up -- though on the other hand, the Tories actually have something to lose from the North if they do that, whereas they didn't in Scotland, so maybe they wouldn't risk it. Exactly, the UKIP voters in southern seats weren't exclusively natural Tories.


Danny View member profile	May 10 2015, 01:34 PM Post #22
BuzzJack Gold Member Joined: 11 April 2006 Posts: 4,259 User: 457	Just seen that Labour have taken West Cheshire council I thought the Tories from the "deep south" of Cheshire would always overwhelm here, Labour couldn't even take it in mid-term.


Suedehead2 View member profile	May 10 2015, 01:35 PM Post #23
BuzzJack Legend Joined: 13 April 2007 Posts: 36,655 User: 3,272	QUOTE(Qassändra @ May 10 2015, 01:11 AM) Now now, there's plenty enough to be worth taking up noosemaking lessons from this election without taking them up for everything. Hard though it may be to believe, Gove's more liberal than Grayling, and at least shows the semblance of a working brain once every so often. That statement isn't backed up by Gove's support for hanging. https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/597371174033694720


Suedehead2 View member profile	May 10 2015, 01:35 PM Post #24
BuzzJack Legend Joined: 13 April 2007 Posts: 36,655 User: 3,272	QUOTE(Danny @ May 10 2015, 02:34 PM) Just seen that Labour have taken West Cheshire council I thought the Tories from the "deep south" of Cheshire would always overwhelm here, Labour couldn't even take it in mid-term. They won the seat that gave them a majority by just a few dozen votes.


Popchartfreak View member profile	May 10 2015, 01:38 PM Post #25
BuzzJack Legend Joined: 18 July 2012 Posts: 22,812 User: 17,376	Thanks all for the articles. Dan Jarvis has the background to convince me he's worth watching.


Qassändra View member profile	May 10 2015, 01:55 PM Post #26
DROTTNING! Joined: 15 April 2006 Posts: 63,953 User: 480	QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ May 10 2015, 02:35 PM) That statement isn't backed up by Gove's support for hanging. https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/597371174033694720 I'm in an actual state of SHOCK at that!


Suedehead2 View member profile	May 10 2015, 01:57 PM Post #27
BuzzJack Legend Joined: 13 April 2007 Posts: 36,655 User: 3,272	QUOTE(Qassändra @ May 10 2015, 02:55 PM) I'm in an actual state of SHOCK at that! It surprised me as well.


Red Blooded Man View member profile	May 10 2015, 02:51 PM Post #28
BuzzJack Platinum Member Joined: 24 June 2006 Posts: 5,242 User: 822	Cameron has SNP to thank for this election win.


crazy chris View member profile	May 10 2015, 03:47 PM Post #29
BuzzJack Legend Joined: 7 March 2006 Posts: 22,001 User: 53	QUOTE(Red Blooded Man @ May 10 2015, 03:51 PM) Cameron has SNP to thank for this election win. No. He'd have still won a majority if Labour had won every seat in Scotland.


Qassändra View member profile	May 10 2015, 04:34 PM Post #30
DROTTNING! Joined: 15 April 2006 Posts: 63,953 User: 480	QUOTE(Common Sense @ May 10 2015, 04:47 PM) No. He'd have still won a majority if Labour had won every seat in Scotland. This really ignores just how influential the line on 'Labour propped up by SNP chaos' was. The Liberal Democrats have already said it was the big shift in the last week of the campaign that lost them pretty much every Tory-Lib Dem marginal and took everyone by surprise - they were all expecting 20 seats at worst until a dramatic shift amongst softer apolitical Lib Dem supporters who decided they wanted Tory certainty.


Qassändra View member profile	May 11 2015, 01:49 AM Post #31
DROTTNING! Joined: 15 April 2006 Posts: 63,953 User: 480	I've entered screaming mode. I've seen the seats we have to win to get to a majority of 10, and they include Canterbury and Chingford & Wood Green. A 10% swing in 2020 gets us to a majority of 20.


Silas View member profile	May 11 2015, 10:01 AM Post #32
Queen of Soon Joined: 24 May 2007 Posts: 74,077 User: 3,474	Does that recovery include Scotland?


Danny View member profile	May 11 2015, 11:21 AM Post #33
BuzzJack Gold Member Joined: 11 April 2006 Posts: 4,259 User: 457	QUOTE(Qassändra @ May 11 2015, 02:49 AM) I've entered screaming mode. I've seen the seats we have to win to get to a majority of 10, and they include Canterbury and Chingford & Wood Green. A 10% swing in 2020 gets us to a majority of 20. Is there an updated list of Labour's "targets" after the new election anywhere?


Danny View member profile	May 11 2015, 11:22 AM Post #34
BuzzJack Gold Member Joined: 11 April 2006 Posts: 4,259 User: 457	QUOTE(Silas @ May 11 2015, 11:01 AM) Does that recovery include Scotland? Ironically, Labour would now have a better chance of getting a majority if Scotland went independent before the next election.


Qassändra View member profile	May 11 2015, 12:55 PM Post #35
DROTTNING! Joined: 15 April 2006 Posts: 63,953 User: 480	QUOTE(Silas @ May 11 2015, 11:01 AM) Does that recovery include Scotland? There are only 7 seats the SNP gained from Labour that have majorities of less than 10,000.


Suedehead2 View member profile	May 11 2015, 01:03 PM Post #36
BuzzJack Legend Joined: 13 April 2007 Posts: 36,655 User: 3,272	QUOTE(Qassändra @ May 11 2015, 02:49 AM) I've entered screaming mode. I've seen the seats we have to win to get to a majority of 10, and they include Canterbury and Chingford & Wood Green. A 10% swing in 2020 gets us to a majority of 20. Ouch. The electoral calculus website has now got the 2015 results plugged in. I tried reversing the Tory and Labour share of the vote to see what happened. Labour would be some way short of a majority. Still, I'm sure the Tories will continue to peddle their lies about how the boundaries currently favour Labour.


Qassändra View member profile	May 11 2015, 01:03 PM Post #37
DROTTNING! Joined: 15 April 2006 Posts: 63,953 User: 480	QUOTE(Danny @ May 11 2015, 12:21 PM) Is there an updated list of Labour's "targets" after the new election anywhere? No, but I've done them off the back of calculation. This is all pre-boundary changes as well, I should add: (Please can Buzzjack install some kind of tabulation function thanks) # Constituency Result Majority Maj % 1 Derby North LAB->CON 41 0.1 2 Gower LAB->CON 27 0.1 3 Croydon Central CON HOLD 165 0.3 4 Vale of Clwyd LAB->CON 237 0.7 5 Bury North CON HOLD 378 0.8 6 Morley & Outwood LAB->CON 422 0.9 7 Plymouth Sutton & Devonport CON HOLD 523 1.1 8 Thurrock CON HOLD 536 1.1 9 Brighton Kemptown CON HOLD 690 1.5 10 Bolton West LAB->CON 801 1.6 11 Weaver Vale CON HOLD 806 1.7 12 Bedford CON HOLD 1097 2.4 13 Plymouth Moor View LAB->CON 1026 2.4 14 Lincoln CON HOLD 1443 3.1 15 Peterborough CON HOLD 1925 4.1 16 Sheffield Hallam LD HOLD 2353 4.2 17 Cardiff North CON HOLD 2137 4.2 18 Corby LAB->CON 2412 4.3 19 Warrington South CON HOLD 2750 4.6 20 Waveney CON HOLD 2408 4.6 21 Southampton Itchen LAB->CON 2316 5.2 22 Keighley CON HOLD 3053 6.2 23 Warwickshire North CON HOLD 2973 6.3 24 Carlisle CON HOLD 2774 6.5 25 Renfrewshire East LAB->SNP 3718 6.6 26 Leeds North West LD HOLD 2907 6.7 27 Halesowen & Rowley Regis CON HOLD 3082 7 28 Crewe & Nantwich CON HOLD 3620 7.3 29 Erewash CON HOLD 3584 7.4 30 Hendon CON HOLD 3724 7.5 31 Ipswich CON HOLD 3733 7.7 32 Broxtowe CON HOLD 4287 8 33 Stroud CON HOLD 4866 8 34 Northampton North CON HOLD 3245 8.2 35 Calder Valley CON HOLD 4427 8.3 36 Blackpool North & Cleveleys CON HOLD 3340 8.5 37 Pudsey CON HOLD 4501 8.8 38 Amber Valley CON HOLD 4205 9.2 39 Sherwood CON HOLD 4647 9.2 40 Hastings & Rye CON HOLD 4796 9.4 41 Bristol North West CON HOLD 4944 9.5 42 Colne Valley CON HOLD 5378 9.5 43 High Peak CON HOLD 4894 9.6 44 Edinburgh North & Leith LAB->SNP 5597 9.6 45 Harrow East CON HOLD 4757 9.7 46 Stockton South CON HOLD 5046 9.7 47 Northampton South CON HOLD 3793 9.8 48 Norwich North CON HOLD 4463 10.2 49 Enfield Southgate CON HOLD 4753 10.4 50 Stevenage CON HOLD 4955 10.4 51 Cannock Chase CON HOLD 4923 10.5 52 Morecambe & Lunesdale CON HOLD 4590 10.6 53 Nuneaton CON HOLD 4882 10.7 54 Dudley South CON HOLD 4270 11.2 55 Finchley & Golders Green CON HOLD 5662 11.2 56 South Ribble CON HOLD 5945 11.4 57 Worcester CON HOLD 5646 11.4 58 Rossendale & Darwen CON HOLD 5654 11.5 59 Dumfries & Galloway LAB->SNP 6514 11.5 60 East Lothian LAB->SNP 6803 11.5 61 Swindon South CON HOLD 5785 11.7 62 Pendle CON HOLD 5453 12.3 63 Paisley & Renfrewshire South LAB->SNP 5684 12.3 64 Preseli Pembrokeshire CON HOLD 4969 12.3 65 Dover CON HOLD 6294 12.5 66 Reading East CON HOLD 6520 12.9 67 Scarborough & Whitby CON HOLD 6200 13 68 Warwick & Leamington CON HOLD 6606 13.1 69 Aberconwy CON HOLD 3999 13.3 70 Crawley CON HOLD 6526 13.4 71 Vale of Glamorgan CON HOLD 6880 13.4 72 Reading West CON HOLD 6650 13.7 73 Arfon PC HOLD 3668 13.7 74 Gloucester CON HOLD 7241 13.8 75 Great Yarmouth CON HOLD 6154 13.8 76 Carmarthen East & Dinefwr PC HOLD 5599 14.2 77 Thanet South CON HOLD 7098 14.3 78 Chipping Barnet CON HOLD 7656 14.4 79 Stourbridge CON HOLD 6694 14.5 80 Brighton Pavilion GRN HOLD 7967 14.6 81 Elmet & Rothwell CON HOLD 8490 14.7 82 Milton Keynes South CON HOLD 8672 14.7 83 Aberdeen South LAB->SNP 7230 14.9 84 Carmarthen West & Pembrokeshire South CON HOLD 6054 15 85 Camborne & Redruth CON HOLD 7004 15.3 86 Battersea CON HOLD 7938 15.6 87 Edinburgh South West LAB->SNP 8135 15.8 88 Redditch CON HOLD 7054 16 89 Gravesham CON HOLD 8370 16.7 90 Milton Keynes North CON HOLD 9753 16.9 91 Basildon South & Thurrock East CON HOLD 7691 16.9 92 Rutherglen & Hamilton West LAB->SNP 9975 17.3 93 Watford CON HOLD 9794 17.4 94 Cleethorpes CON HOLD 7893 17.5 95 Ochil & South Perthshire LAB->SNP 10168 17.6 96 Loughborough CON HOLD 9183 17.7 97 Shrewsbury & Atcham CON HOLD 9565 17.7 98 Clwyd West CON HOLD 6730 17.7 99 Paisley & Renfrewshire North LAB->SNP 9076 18 100 Canterbury CON HOLD 9798 18.3


Suedehead2 View member profile	May 11 2015, 01:14 PM Post #38
BuzzJack Legend Joined: 13 April 2007 Posts: 36,655 User: 3,272	I'll comment more on the Labour target list later but I do have a question. Does anybody know anything about Bedford? The Lib Dems came a very distant fourth in the general election, yet another deposit-losing performance. However, the Lib Dems also won the Mayoral contest in Bedford. Even if the boundaries are not quite the same, this is an extraordinary difference in results.


Qassändra View member profile	May 11 2015, 01:40 PM Post #39
DROTTNING! Joined: 15 April 2006 Posts: 63,953 User: 480	QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ May 11 2015, 02:14 PM) I'll comment more on the Labour target list later but I do have a question. Does anybody know anything about Bedford? The Lib Dems came a very distant fourth in the general election, yet another deposit-losing performance. However, the Lib Dems also won the Mayoral contest in Bedford. Even if the boundaries are not quite the same, this is an extraordinary difference in results. I presume it's a local champion who stood for the mayoral and the appeal didn't quite translate to national votes. The very popular Lib Dem mayor of Watford came a very poor third there on Thursday - swept out mostly by the national picture I think.


Popchartfreak View member profile	May 11 2015, 04:24 PM Post #40
BuzzJack Legend Joined: 18 July 2012 Posts: 22,812 User: 17,376	QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ May 11 2015, 02:14 PM) I'll comment more on the Labour target list later but I do have a question. Does anybody know anything about Bedford? The Lib Dems came a very distant fourth in the general election, yet another deposit-losing performance. However, the Lib Dems also won the Mayoral contest in Bedford. Even if the boundaries are not quite the same, this is an extraordinary difference in results. dunno that but I notice an almost clean sweep in the council I work for of Blue, bar a couple of independents, a UKIP gain, a Libdem (I think) and 1 brand new Green courtesy of the local Uni students unifying and almost getting 3 of them in. Labour gone completely. In answer to earlier comments about northerners heading south and annoying the locals: we've been here for decades, we invaded the South during the last Conservative era when there were no jobs, that includes Scottish, North, Midlands, Welsh, South-West, Londoners, and I think you'll find no moaning about us cos those predisposed to moan about invaders are too busy whinging about the Poles and other EU nationals. Oddly, in the case of towns like Bournemouth who get a lot of income from foreign students from all over the world. Then again, logic has nothing to do with voting and personal bigotry.