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BuzzJack Music Forum _ UK Charts _ Q4 Predictions 2018
Posted by: ThePensmith 9th August 2018, 02:47 PM
Well with the summer weather now on the turn (it's raining today, and I'm wearing trousers, that's enough for it to be a turn in my book), and the first New Music Friday of September only three weeks away now, I felt it a sensible point to start up predictions for what we'll see in the last few months of 2018 chart wise. Here's mine to get things started...
- Little Mix's fifth album will be another huge success for them, with another number one single to boot.
- George Ezra will have a second number one - possibly on the back of a Strictly or X Factor performance - with 'Hold My Girl'.
- Jess Glynne's second album will be as big as - if not bigger - than her debut, with another chart topper or two to her name.
- Take That's 'reworked' greatest hits album will be one of the big sellers in the run up to Christmas.
- Olly Murs' sixth album will be his fifth number one album in a row and produce his first top 10 hit since 'Up' in 2014 (hey, a fan is allowed to dream big).
- Cheryl's new single will be launched with a big performance somewhere but will struggle, and be reported about by Dan Wootton with all the unrestrained glee he usually reserves for her these days.
Posted by: Tonya 9th August 2018, 02:58 PM
The chart will continue to bore everyone to tears.
Posted by: WhoOdyssey 9th August 2018, 03:06 PM
The 1975 will get their first UK top 10 single and third #1 album.
Posted by: coi 9th August 2018, 03:11 PM
Probably at least another three rappers will score their debut top 40 hit.
Posted by: SKOB 9th August 2018, 03:14 PM
- Little Mix's fifth album will be another huge success for them, with another number one single to boot. Probably
- George Ezra will have a second number one - possibly on the back of a Strictly or X Factor performance - with 'Hold My Girl'. He won't have another top 5 hit on the album considering none of the songs are doing that well as album tracks on streaming
- Jess Glynne's second album will be as big as - if not bigger - than her debut, with another chart topper or two to her name. I don't think so, platinum album probably though
- Take That's 'reworked' greatest hits album will be one of the big sellers in the run up to Christmas. Could be, if people still buy albums for Xmas presents
- Olly Murs' sixth album will be his fifth number one album in a row and produce his first top 10 hit since 'Up' in 2014 (hey, a fan is allowed to dream big). Totally possible.
- Cheryl's new single will be launched with a big performance somewhere but will struggle, and be reported about by Dan Wootton with all the unrestrained glee he usually reserves for her these days. She's still trying?
In addition to those, The 1975 and Twenty One Pilots will have a number one album and hope for the best for A Star Is Born soundtrack, Madonna and The Prodigy.
Posted by: ThePensmith 9th August 2018, 03:22 PM
RE: George Ezra. 'Shotgun' only really took off once it got promoted to single status. There's time enough yet (especially if 'Shotgun' goes onto ACR in the coming weeks). I agree re: The 1975 as there seems to be a lot of buzz around them at the moment!
Posted by: Dobbo 9th August 2018, 03:24 PM
Drake Christmas #1.
Posted by: WhoOdyssey 9th August 2018, 03:41 PM
Avicii ft. Chris Martin will get into the top 10.
Posted by: Tawdry Hepburn 9th August 2018, 03:42 PM
Sigala + Kylie Minogue will have a top 10 hit
Madonna will have a collaboration with Drake on her album, it will bag her another long-awaited #1
Posted by: SKOB 9th August 2018, 03:56 PM
Yesss! On one of the fado influenced tracks
Posted by: Tawdry Hepburn 9th August 2018, 03:59 PM
Sophie Ellis-Bextor attempts to release her orchestral Greatest Hits album, realises two days before release that she's forgotten to manufacture the CDs and misses the release date
Rita Ora announces she quits music to focus on her new career as an Avon rep
Ellie Goulding finishes the year with a zinc certified album
Cher’s ABBA covers album proves to be a surprisingly successful stocking filler, sells over 400k by the end of the year
Posted by: ThePensmith 9th August 2018, 04:11 PM
Rita Ora announces she quits music to focus on her new career as an Avon rep
Ellie Goulding finishes the year with a zinc certified album
Cher’s ABBA covers album proves to be a surprisingly successful stocking filler, sells over 400k by the end of the year
Oooh good call on Cher. Particularly as this coming autumn is 20 years since she spent seven weeks at number one with 'Believe' - not to mention the publicity and praise on the back of the second Mamma Mia film! And the Rita Ora one wouldn't surprise me
Posted by: Jamie Barkley 9th August 2018, 04:24 PM
'Youth' by Shawn Mendes will be given a proper push and become a big hit
'Eastside' will have a lengthy Top 10 stint.
Posted by: Tonya 9th August 2018, 04:28 PM
Rita Ora will postpone the release of her second album again.
Posted by: Jamie Barkley 9th August 2018, 05:02 PM
I feel like Boo'd Up is going to have a very steady climb and smash around October/November. It's definitely more of a winter warmer than a summer smash anwyay.
Posted by: danG 9th August 2018, 05:24 PM
I'd be very surprised if that second Rita Ora album ever comes out at this rate.
Really hope they don't push 'Youth' for Shawn Mendes because I've really had enough of Khalid constantly in the chart and he's about to have a major hit with 'Eastside'.
Posted by: Eleni 9th August 2018, 05:33 PM
Jess Glynne will have 59 #1 singles by the end of the year
Posted by: GTH 9th August 2018, 06:33 PM
I am expecting Q4 to be pretty quiet as well (compared to normal) tbh. Can’t think of any big releases confirmed for Q4.
Posted by: Steve201 9th August 2018, 06:52 PM
Something rising the charts right now will be still top 40!
Posted by: SKOB 9th August 2018, 06:52 PM
If by "big" you mean Ed Sheeran or Adele, no there won't be any. But there will loads of interesting stuff.
Posted by: Esmerelda 9th August 2018, 07:03 PM
This year has been the worst ever for album releases for me. I've only bought 1 back in January and not really interested in anything coming up for the rest of the year.
Posted by: shindymindy 9th August 2018, 07:14 PM
Is she genuinely releasing a fado influenced track? Let’s hope she doesn’t destroy fado.
Posted by: Eleni 9th August 2018, 07:19 PM
What do we actually have coming albums wise in Q4?
Ellie Goulding
Olly Murs
??
Posted by: WhoOdyssey 9th August 2018, 07:22 PM
Ellie Goulding
Olly Murs
??
The 1975
Twenty One Pilots
Muse
Vampire Weekend
Clean Bandit
There's also some others which have been announced, but no release date.
Posted by: Eleni 9th August 2018, 07:25 PM
Louisa will smash with the new single tbh
Posted by: Theo. 9th August 2018, 07:36 PM
Twenty One Pilots
Muse
Vampire Weekend
Clean Bandit
There's also some others which have been announced, but no release date.
Jess Glynne will unfortunately probably have a very successful album.
Posted by: Mart!n 9th August 2018, 07:38 PM
Dynoro feat. Gigi D`Agostino - In My Mind to become a big hit 
Posted by: WhoOdyssey 9th August 2018, 07:40 PM
Well *technically* September is Q3.
There's actually a few big albums out in September (other than Jess'):
Rudimental
Liam Payne
Sigala
Cher
Posted by: SKOB 9th August 2018, 07:44 PM
Twenty One Pilots
Muse
Vampire Weekend
Clean Bandit
There's also some others which have been announced, but no release date.
Nicki Minaj
Ariana Grande
Troye Sivan
Paul McCartney
Aphex Twin
Pale Waves
Christine and the Queens
You Me at Six
Culture Club
The Prodigy
Madonna
A Star Is Born OST
Cher (Abba covers)
Bruce Springsteen
Chromatics
Sky Ferreira
Tool
Possibly Rihanna
Baffling if people don't find anything to listen to...
Posted by: SKOB 9th August 2018, 07:47 PM
It's #4 here on Spotify so UK is just stupid if they don't embrace it 100%
Posted by: darrens94 9th August 2018, 08:32 PM
Gente De Zona kindly featuring on another Kylie track and for it to smash like the last one 
Posted by: Bjork 9th August 2018, 08:37 PM
What about Little Mix? They cannot leave it much longer
Posted by: Tawdry Hepburn 9th August 2018, 08:40 PM
Clean Bandit? Will that actually happen? This has been going on almost as long as Rita Ora's second album now.
Posted by: WhoOdyssey 9th August 2018, 08:43 PM
To be honest, it wouldn't surprise me if the lead single is out around October (and they can promote it on The X Factor), and the album isn't out until next year.
Posted by: scratchy23 9th August 2018, 08:45 PM
Good point! They've all but confirmed an album is coming this year. They've just finished recording it (endless snaps of them recording in the studios and Jade posted on Instagram a week or two ago that they only had a few sessions left).
They've had Only You out this summer and a tour to keep the fans happy and the pennies rolling in.
I reckon the lead single will be out in September, and the album out in November.
Posted by: Bjork 9th August 2018, 08:47 PM
Why would LM wait til next year? They should aim at replicating the strategy of Glory Days and go for the Q4/Xmas sales
They should take advantage of no big big names releasing
Posted by: scratchy23 9th August 2018, 09:00 PM
4 years vs. 6 years... you're not far off actually.
At least Rita Ora kinda makes sense (a multitude of reasons - recorded an album with Calvin Harris that got scrapped, sometimes seems more interested in being a celebrity than a pop star with her X Factor judging, Voice judging, ANTM presenting, socialiting and makeup endorsements to name a few; and also the fact that it's difficult for female pop stars to shift albums these days).
Clean Bandit doesn't really make sense at all, they've had three number ones since their last album and have the 'credible' appeal that most album-selling artists in the late 2010s have to have. They must have the material by now to put a full LP together? Why are they taking so long?
Posted by: Yorkie3 9th August 2018, 09:08 PM
Didn't Clean Bandit announce around a year ago that they had no plans to release an album and had settled into releasing standalone singles every 6 months? Unless that has changed I wouldn't expect an album anytime soon!
Posted by: danG 9th August 2018, 09:11 PM
there's apparently going to be an album coming in September.
Posted by: Hans 9th August 2018, 09:13 PM
Oh good, that should mean a new single soon then, and we can move on from "Solo"... I'm desperate to
Posted by: Yorkie3 9th August 2018, 09:21 PM
Fair enough, I'm a little behind the times. I don't think it would be a terrible strategy for them to quit releasing albums altogether though since they have so much singles success when they don't oversaturate the market with their songs, and albums don't really sell well these days. I was also hoping they'd maintain their top 5 singles streak, which probably won't happen if they release an album
Posted by: 777666jason 9th August 2018, 10:01 PM
At this stage short of a surprise release from Adele/ ED etc. which seems unlikely Jess Glynne and Little mix seem to be the only potential "massive" candidates.
Ellie Goulding could do alright for a week or 2 but she hasn't had a hit in years and she featured a few times.
Olly murs could do ok if he promotes and releases Christmas time
Justin beiber could do well possibly
Posted by: JosephAvery 9th August 2018, 10:05 PM
In all fairness, she hasn't released a song of her own in 2 years (Still Falling For You)
I'd say this is on lock if he actually releases!
(tidied up these posts and moved them to the Q4 predictions topic)
Posted by: ___∆___ 10th August 2018, 11:17 AM
Kylie Q4 predictions -
The repackage of Golden album will go Top 10.
She will have a Top 10 with Sigala
‘Santa Baby’ will reach a Top 30 peak and the Christmas album will return to the Top 75.
Posted by: danG 10th August 2018, 11:20 AM
I can't see Santa Baby reaching a new peak, keep in mind it will be subject to ACR and because of the new rules it will not be reset this year.
Posted by: coi 10th August 2018, 11:41 AM
I can't see Kylie having a top 10 single either.
Posted by: 777666jason 10th August 2018, 11:47 AM
Lots of Christmas tracks will return to the chart even with the new dodgy rules
Buzzjack will have its annual Mariah vs pogues debate Mariah will ultimately peak highest she always does
Posted by: PeteFromLeeds 10th August 2018, 11:50 AM
Wonder if we'll get some more new Christmas tracks climbing the ranks? Santa's Coming For Us should certainly get a new peak since it was only released last year and should leapfrog some of the older songs ahead of it.
Posted by: Hans 10th August 2018, 11:52 AM
It’d be great to see the best of Sia's Christmas album get some nice peaks. Go "Ho Ho Ho"!
Posted by: Tawdry Hepburn 10th August 2018, 12:02 PM
Does this mean all the regular perennial Christmas standards won't reach as high this year as previously?
Posted by: Bjork 10th August 2018, 12:28 PM
they will all have their streams cut in half, so if they get 1 million streams per day during xmas week, only 500,000 will count for the charts
they will still chart but lower I'd say
Posted by: Bjork 10th August 2018, 12:30 PM
and yes it gives a very good chance to Sia's xmas tracks or anybody releasing new xmas music
Posted by: ___∆___ 10th August 2018, 04:06 PM
^^ Even with the new rules Christmas songs will still be huge - streaming is only getting bigger and we now have the inclusion of YT into the mix. Plus Christmas this year falls on a Friday so will be a huge streaming week for Christmas songs in that chart.
Posted by: darrens94 10th August 2018, 04:26 PM
Christmas is on a Tuesday this year not a Friday.
Posted by: N-S 10th August 2018, 04:39 PM
Adele will surprise everyone by releasing "29"/"30".
Posted by: Tawdry Hepburn 10th August 2018, 04:44 PM
The most surprising thing about that would be the title, as she's said 25 will be the last of its kind.
Posted by: ThePensmith 10th August 2018, 08:11 PM
I reckon it won't be until end of next year or 2020 at the latest that we hear from either Adele or Ed Sheeran again. I think it'll certainly be a test for Ed when he comes back with new stuff, and I suspect he'll come back with something totally at odds with his last two albums - partly to change gear, but I also suspect to answer the heavy amount of backlash he recieved on the Divide campaign generally.
Posted by: Klaus 10th August 2018, 08:16 PM
Ed Sheeran has said the next album is going to be purposefully uncommercial because he’ll never top Divide so he needs to lower the bar to smash just as hard with his fifth album
Posted by: digitalking 10th August 2018, 08:43 PM
I feel like Ariana is hiding a massive banger in her new album which is waiting to smash later this year
Posted by: Steve201 10th August 2018, 11:47 PM
Yeh Ed is big enough now to release something non commercial and still do well to regain his integrity after the inevitable backlash of his exposure/success - all artist like him do that by album 4!
Posted by: Steve201 10th August 2018, 11:49 PM
Love the Xmas song chat in august - only 8 weeks until Mariah breaks the top 200 in the chart again 
I assume Sia will release another single from her brillant Xmas album to radio this December again.
Also on the same theme we are still waiting on Bubles second Xmas album being released - could it be this year?
Posted by: ThePensmith 11th August 2018, 02:58 AM
I assume Sia will release another single from her brillant Xmas album to radio this December again.
Also on the same theme we are still waiting on Bubles second Xmas album being released - could it be this year?
I know Michael Buble is playing some live shows again - he's playing The O2 again at the end of next month - but I'm not sure he's been in the studio again since his last proper album in 2016 (understandably so). Maybe next year though?
Posted by: Bjork 11th August 2018, 06:19 AM
ed sheeran will never regain his credibility no matter what, you cannot regain what you never had :/
what about Rihanna? will she release a new album this year?
Posted by: ThePensmith 30th August 2018, 03:02 PM
One more prediction that I am going to confidently make here: 'Baby Shark' will be a number one record at some point between now and the end of the year.
Posted by: SLlewellyn 30th August 2018, 08:36 PM
Having listened to the album through twice, I'm not sure there's a 'massive' hit in the waiting (though "Breathin'" has already shown great signs that it'll be a decent third single) - "No Tears Left to Cry" is just too good to top.
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