European Election Thread 2019, EU, baby. |
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Apr 13 2019, 02:56 PM
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#21
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I Drink Wine
Joined: 12 April 2015
Posts: 10,484 User: 21,753 |
We could end up with some very messy results based on the opinion polls but I guess campaigning hasn't started yet!
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Apr 14 2019, 01:04 PM
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#22
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I'm a paragon so don't perceive me
Joined: 3 February 2011
Posts: 37,409 User: 12,929 |
UKIP are lining up just the greatest list of candidates aren't they?
If you needed a reminder it's <current year> their second choice for the South West is Carl Benjamin, aka. Sargon Of Akkad on Youtube, and my eternal enemy for disgracing the name of the 4th millennium BC's coolest world conqueror. A """liberal""" (right-winger using the 'classical liberal' moniker to gain wide appeal) who hates political correctness, wants to make Britain great again and once sent an 'I wouldn't even rape you' comment to a Labour MP. Mark Meecham (aka. Count Dankula of the Nazi dog free speech controversy) has also joined the party and is angling to be an MEP. So *sigh* potential for right-wing memes to give UKIP a boost. |
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Apr 14 2019, 01:45 PM
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#23
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Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364 |
UKIP are lining up just the greatest list of candidates aren't they? If you needed a reminder it's <current year> their second choice for the South West is Carl Benjamin, aka. Sargon Of Akkad on Youtube, and my eternal enemy for disgracing the name of the 4th millennium BC's coolest world conqueror. A """liberal""" (right-winger using the 'classical liberal' moniker to gain wide appeal) who hates political correctness, wants to make Britain great again and once sent an 'I wouldn't even rape you' comment to a Labour MP. Mark Meecham (aka. Count Dankula of the Nazi dog free speech controversy) has also joined the party and is angling to be an MEP. So *sigh* potential for right-wing memes to give UKIP a boost. Given the short notice, the quality of candidates all round is likely to be low. |
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Apr 14 2019, 02:30 PM
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#24
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Say that hiss with your chest, and...
Joined: 24 May 2016
Posts: 18,442 User: 23,308 |
I am sure the Brexit Party will do better than UKIP in the European election because UKIP is becoming a bit of a tainted brand, and on the other side of the Brexit spectrum, Change UK will do better than the Lib Dems (although that will be closer between the two).
Meanwhile almost certainly the Conservatives will have a disastrous performance and probably Labour will make some slight gains, but not do as well as they should be doing under the circumstances. This post has been edited by TheSnake: Apr 14 2019, 02:34 PM |
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Apr 14 2019, 02:30 PM
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#25
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I'm a paragon so don't perceive me
Joined: 3 February 2011
Posts: 37,409 User: 12,929 |
Nah. The provisional Lib Dem list for the same area contains two former MPs, school governors, environmental scientists, people with experience in international organisations. I was impressed. People that looked like the sort of people we would send to be MEPs for the full allotted time, not those who've gotten internet famous from being intentionally abrasive and with skeletons spilling out of their closets. UKIP is scraping.
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Apr 14 2019, 02:35 PM
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#26
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Say that hiss with your chest, and...
Joined: 24 May 2016
Posts: 18,442 User: 23,308 |
Nah. The provisional Lib Dem list for the same area contains two former MPs, school governors, environmental scientists, people with experience in international organisations. I was impressed. People that looked like the sort of people we would send to be MEPs for the full allotted time, not those who've gotten internet famous from being intentionally abrasive and with skeletons spilling out of their closets. UKIP is scraping. You think the Lib Dems will do better than Change UK then, even though Change UK have the benefit of being shiny and new? |
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Apr 14 2019, 02:46 PM
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#27
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Howdy, disco citizens
Joined: 16 January 2010
Posts: 12,775 User: 10,455 |
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Apr 14 2019, 02:49 PM
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#28
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I'm a paragon so don't perceive me
Joined: 3 February 2011
Posts: 37,409 User: 12,929 |
Almost certainly I'd say, though I am a tad biased. LDs already have an infrastructure and an identity, and they've been the biggest pro-Europe party ever since the referendum. For those who it's an issue, they also oppose federalism in Europe, and are a bit less likely to be soulless neoliberals. CUK could gain centrist ground but I'm not seeing a world where they manage to place themselves as THE remain party.
Being the most established pro-Remain party I think will put them at least 4th overall if not better. Where they've often been held back in elections is their fragmented spread of voters that works against them with FPTP. They were 5th last time but that was at their lowest ebb of popularity, I think they'll get some more this time. |
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Apr 14 2019, 02:51 PM
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#29
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Howdy, disco citizens
Joined: 16 January 2010
Posts: 12,775 User: 10,455 |
UKIP are lining up just the greatest list of candidates aren't they? If you needed a reminder it's <current year> their second choice for the South West is Carl Benjamin, aka. Sargon Of Akkad on Youtube, and my eternal enemy for disgracing the name of the 4th millennium BC's coolest world conqueror. A """liberal""" (right-winger using the 'classical liberal' moniker to gain wide appeal) who hates political correctness, wants to make Britain great again and once sent an 'I wouldn't even rape you' comment to a Labour MP. Mark Meecham (aka. Count Dankula of the Nazi dog free speech controversy) has also joined the party and is angling to be an MEP. So *sigh* potential for right-wing memes to give UKIP a boost. I guess we should be glad that Paul Joseph Watson of InfoWars, who joined at the same time, isn't on the list (as of yet), so small mercies & all that. But yes, not a good look I imagine these internet "personalities" will be putting their emphasis on the recent EU vote over copyright reform in relation to Article 13, aka the "Meme Ban" bill. It is something that many people have issues with, especially given the shenanigans that happened to get it through, but these are definitely not the people you want flying the flag on the issue. |
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Apr 14 2019, 03:34 PM
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#30
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Queen of Soon
Joined: 24 May 2007
Posts: 74,077 User: 3,474 |
Almost certainly I'd say, though I am a tad biased. LDs already have an infrastructure and an identity, and they've been the biggest pro-Europe party ever since the referendum. For those who it's an issue, they also oppose federalism in Europe, and are a bit less likely to be soulless neoliberals. CUK could gain centrist ground but I'm not seeing a world where they manage to place themselves as THE remain party. Being the most established pro-Remain party I think will put them at least 4th overall if not better. Where they've often been held back in elections is their fragmented spread of voters that works against them with FPTP. They were 5th last time but that was at their lowest ebb of popularity, I think they'll get some more this time. Biggest party by Members or MPs? Because they're second on both counts to the SNP and the SNP don't even stand outside of Scotland. |
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Apr 14 2019, 03:53 PM
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#31
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 13 April 2007
Posts: 36,655 User: 3,272 |
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Apr 14 2019, 04:11 PM
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#32
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Queen of Soon
Joined: 24 May 2007
Posts: 74,077 User: 3,474 |
"biggest pro-Europe party ever since the referendum"
Hence the Q. |
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Apr 14 2019, 05:23 PM
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#33
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I'm a paragon so don't perceive me
Joined: 3 February 2011
Posts: 37,409 User: 12,929 |
I said both but I was simply thinking UK-wide (or, fine, just England!) as the SNP are not an option for most of the electorate.
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Apr 14 2019, 06:08 PM
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#34
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WINTER IS COMING
Joined: 7 March 2006
Posts: 45,597 User: 88 |
UKIP will do nothing in the elections, they're basically a re-branded BNP now. Sure they'll pick up some of the votes, but they're basically a Fascist party now.
If Farage hadn't founded the Brexit party then I could see things being different. Plus the Brexit party gives Farage (who was UKIP) a platform to blame everyone for not seeing through Brexit rah, rah, rah. It's just a pure populist party which is dangerous, as populist parties are but I can see why a Brexiteer would vote for them. If any Brexiteer votes for the UKIP party, well, they need their head knocking on! |
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Apr 15 2019, 05:29 AM
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#35
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Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364 |
UKIP will do nothing in the elections, they're basically a re-branded BNP now. Sure they'll pick up some of the votes, but they're basically a Fascist party now. If Farage hadn't founded the Brexit party then I could see things being different. Plus the Brexit party gives Farage (who was UKIP) a platform to blame everyone for not seeing through Brexit rah, rah, rah. It's just a pure populist party which is dangerous, as populist parties are but I can see why a Brexiteer would vote for them. If any Brexiteer votes for the UKIP party, well, they need their head knocking on! That depends - 1. They might not realise that UKIP have changed. 2. They might be so pissed off at the fiasco over BRexit, that they'll vote for them despite the change. |
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Apr 16 2019, 12:05 PM
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#36
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 18 July 2012
Posts: 22,812 User: 17,376 |
That depends - 1. They might not realise that UKIP have changed. 2. They might be so pissed off at the fiasco over BRexit, that they'll vote for them despite the change. Sounds like you're saying UKIP voters are too stupid to notice the changes or so extreme that they'll vote for them in spite of the move to the nutty far-right. That doesn;t sound very complimentary either way |
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Apr 17 2019, 05:28 AM
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#37
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Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364 |
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Apr 20 2019, 09:43 AM
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#38
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 18 July 2012
Posts: 22,812 User: 17,376 |
well here's a depressingly potentially accurate summary of what's likely to happen....
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2...ections-eu-vote |
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Apr 20 2019, 10:00 AM
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#39
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Howdy, disco citizens
Joined: 16 January 2010
Posts: 12,775 User: 10,455 |
Lord Buckethead, the satirical character who stood against Theresa May in the 2017 General Election (and previously stood against Margaret Thatcher & John Major in 1987 & 1992 respectively) is hoping to stand in the EU elections against Nigel Farage. Although he has never polled greater than 1%, and due to the party list system stands no chance of getting in even if his support increased 10-fold, in this topsy-turvy political world a slight part of me can't rule him out.
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Apr 20 2019, 10:06 AM
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#40
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I'm a paragon so don't perceive me
Joined: 3 February 2011
Posts: 37,409 User: 12,929 |
...which is why it's more important than ever for Remain forces to start coming together. The Lib Dems need to get back into the media, Change UK need to sort out how they're batting.
Consider the narrative that comes from the result of the elections first. Which is possibly more important than the actual result. The Brexit party comes top and the conversation is how there is still desire on that side. If it's a good lead. However if they come very close behind Labour, with Lib Dem/Green/ChangeUK all polling somewhat decently, while UKIP courting only the vote from insane internet incels and the Tories floundering, then I don't know that it'd be as easy to spin the result. In fact, one would then be encouraged to count Leave MEPs/Remain MEPS and the latter would look pretty good. It being proportional is going to help this a lot. If you understand the system, you'll see there are no wasted votes. And then to counter my other point, you have more chance of blocking a UKIP or 2nd Brexit MEP in your region by voting someone like the Greens (though try and check local polling to be sure). This is the one election where a cause being divided is actually pretty strong. As long as each party can poll ENOUGH to get over the line (i.e. at least half of the highest vote total), we could end up with an election where the average constituency sends one of each of the seven major parties. Of course, many have less. |
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