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> 2022 year to date estimates, For singles and albums
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Jessie Where
post Jan 3 2023, 10:29 PM
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Who would you say is bigger at the moment out of Harry and Taylor?
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Music Chronicle
post Jan 4 2023, 02:37 PM
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2022 Top 100 Albums Analysis

Several commentators have drawn attention to the presence of six greatest hits albums in the Year End Top 10.

But this trend hasn’t been observed throughout the year end chart. Across the Top 100, greatest hits albums increased their share by just 2%, to 28%. This total has climbed slowly and steadily over the past five years.



3 greatest hits albums dropped out of the Top 100 from 2021 to 2022, with 2 re-entries and 3 new entries:-
- Elvis Presley’s Elv1s – 30 #1 Hits (2002) replaced The 50 Greatest Hits (2000), as streaming allocation shifted from one set to the other;
- Noel Gallagher’s High Flying Birds (2021) and the Bee Gees (2017) compilations also departed.
In came:-
- 50 Cent’s 2017 Best Of, making its first appearance in a year end Top 100;
- Whitney Houston’s 2012 I Will Always Love You, also the beneficiary of an allocation switch and also making its year end debut;
- Nirvana, back into the year end Top 100 for the first time since its release in 2002; and
- The Script’s 2021 Tales From The Script, making its year end bow.

The chart below plots the year end chart positions of 11 strongly performing perennials. Ten of the eleven finished higher in 2022 than 2021, and the same ten also increased their chart sales. The biggest uplift was for Eminem’s Curtain Call, with a sales increase of almost 50% thanks in part to the release of a sequel. Oasis (+18%) and ABBA (+12%) had the next biggest consumption increases. The others all grew by between 5% and 8%, with the sole exception of Queen’s Greatest Hits, with sales down 16% as the impact of the Bohemian Rhapsody film continued to diminish.



This post has been edited by Music Chronicle: Jan 5 2023, 07:42 AM
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Music Chronicle
post Jan 4 2023, 02:38 PM
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A trend which should cause alarm within the industry is the steep decline in the number of new releases within the Top 100. In 2018, exactly half of the year end list was filled by new product. In 2022 this crashed to just 20%. As the chart below shows, this void has been filled by albums which are more than 3 years old.



The next chart may shed some light on this phenomenon. The largest chunk of the 2022 year end list was filled with albums originally released between 2015 and 2019. This possibly corresponds to streaming activity being dominated by people aged between 15 and 24 who are continuing to enjoy music from their younger teenage years. But it begs the question of what material will prosper in the late 2020s if so few brand new albums are now having an impact upon release.



The oldest studio album to enter the year end Top 100 in 2022 is 50 Cent’s Get Rich Or Die Tryin’ (2002), making its first annual chart appearance in 19 years. The oldest drop-out is Jess Glynne’s I Cry When I Laugh (2015).

It is hard to pick out any trends from a plot of the 11 most popular “classic” studio albums. To a certain extent, performance ebbs and flows with new releases by the same artists – hence Ed Sheeran and Adele sliding compared 2021, and Arctic Monkeys rising.
The latter enjoyed an 11 place climb for AM, a 14 spot improvement for Whatever People Say…, and a re-entry for Favourite Worst Nightmare, alongside the third highest new entry of 2022 for The Car.
Despite hitting number one on the weekly chart for the third year (after 2011 and 2020), Michael Buble’s Christmas is clearly on a downward trajectory.


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Music Chronicle
post Jan 4 2023, 02:39 PM
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British artists account for exactly half of 2022’s year end chart – one slot less than 2021 and two less than 2020. It must be said that British acts dominated the tracks chart in 2022, so the home market still seems to be in good health.



The number of albums accumulating more than 100,000 chart sales in 2022 climbed again, from 44 to 45. It remains to be seen whether 2020 will represent a long term trough. The thresholds for making the Year End Top 20, Top 50 and Top 100 all rose slightly in 2022, suggesting the overall rise in streaming consumption is counteracting the relentless decline in physical sales.



Long term forecasting is fraught with problems. Whilst the live scene, which undoubtedly stimulates sales, is prospering again after the pandemic shutdown, the cost-of-living crisis will surely hit physical sales.

The number of artists whose new releases create a major fuss has now dwindled to a very small number, as demonstrated by the comparatively modest appearances of Beyonce at #35 and Drake at #67 on the 2022 list. It remains to be seen whether any artists manage to score 100,000 sales in a week during 2023. Of those whose names currently appear on the forthcoming releases schedule, perhaps only Lewis Capaldi has six-figure potential for week one.

This points towards another year with greatest hits by established superstars again populating the upper reaches of the year end lists, unless the OCC adjusts its double-counting rules for track streams. It is notable that today’s BBC report on the year end best sellers lists described this as a “quirk” and a “bug”. Thus it isn’t just chart watchers like the contributors to this forum who are wondering whether the current policy is either an accurate reflection of popularity or of help to the music industry’s long term prospects.

(Note that all of this analysis has stripped various artists soundtracks out of the 2018 year end list, to ensure like-for-like comparisions with 2019-2022).
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Brer
post Jan 4 2023, 03:39 PM
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Interesting stats there, thanks for compiling - although should note that despite the apparent downward trend of the Bublé Christmas album overall, all 3 of its charting songs reached new peaks last week!

Also slightly surprising that the number of albums doing 100k+ has been slowly ticking back up since 2020.
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