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 26th August 2013, 04:08 PM
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#41
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 DROTTNING!
Joined: 15 April 2006
Posts: 63,953 User: 480 
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QUOTE(Sandro Ranieri @ Aug 26 2013, 04:36 PM)  There are 400k vacancies registered with job centres, job centres probably represent about 50% of jobs if you take into account agencies etc so in real terms you are probably talking in terms of 750,000 jobs on the market, the company i work for never use the job centre we purely use specialist agencies and we are not alone Have you actually got any figures outside of those you pulled out of your arse at a guess? Especially given your hilariously awful track record for guessing figures. |
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26th August 2013, 04:49 PM
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#42
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I'm so lonely, I paid a hobo to spoon with me
Joined: 6 February 2010
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Oddly I think that the Tories' problem is that their election plan and slogan is so obvious now that Labour have the best part of two years to combat it. I still think a "are you really better off now than you were under us?"-type campaign would be the best way to go but I'm willing to be proved wrong.
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26th August 2013, 04:53 PM
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#43
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DROTTNING!
Joined: 15 April 2006
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Didn't work for Romney. Won't work for us if we carry on letting the Tories define us.
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26th August 2013, 05:04 PM
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#44
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I'm so lonely, I paid a hobo to spoon with me
Joined: 6 February 2010
Posts: 12,908 User: 10,596
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QUOTE(Cassandra @ Aug 26 2013, 05:53 PM) Didn't work for Romney. Won't work for us if we carry on letting the Tories define us. There's about a million different reasons Romney lost (my favourite being "why don't they open the windows on aeroplanes?"). I probably didn't phrase it right, I should have said that would be my preferred tagline for the economy but I don't see why the campaign as a whole should have any great focus on it. We're never going to win by banging on about economic credibility, controlled immigration and responsible welfare so make sure we have policies in areas the Tories are naturally weak (National Care Service, Living Wage etc.) and get them right first. |
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26th August 2013, 05:16 PM
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#45
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DROTTNING!
Joined: 15 April 2006
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Oh, don't get me wrong - living standards is pretty much the only bullet left in our chamber as things stand. It's one that'll only work if we get other things right, is what I'm saying.
But if we lose in 2015, we've probably already lost by the end of this year - Romney lost because Obama defined him early on long before he could play the centrist who cared about living standards (though granted the amount of ammo having to go through that primary gave Obama didn't help him), which America might have voted for. The Tories have done defining us pretty well and our message is totally and utterly shot due to Ed's office's total inability to make a coherent message or do anything other than fire and forget proclamations in speeches whenever we make a big move. |
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26th August 2013, 05:32 PM
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#46
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 BuzzJack Gold Member
Joined: 13 May 2013
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QUOTE(Cassandra @ Aug 26 2013, 05:08 PM) Have you actually got any figures outside of those you pulled out of your arse at a guess? Especially given your hilariously awful track record for guessing figures. Oh come on Tyron This is an internet FORUM It is not a court of law or a session of a commons select committee where you hold a bible up in your hand and say 'what i am about to say is the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth, so help me god' It is not about 100% accuracy and 100% facts it is about OPINION with some facts thrown in for good measure I do not have the TIME to do detailed research nor the inclination to do so either, research and reading drives me insane enough in my paid employment let alone my free time If I am 50,000 out or 100,000 out or 200,000 out does it really really matter? the FACT is that the vast majority of agency jobs are not on UJM, the company I work for uses Michael Page for our recruitment for management and executives, Driver Hire for drivers and Manpower for our warehouse staff, NONE of the jobs, we have hired 47 people this year, appear on UJM/job centres so trust me there are lot more than 450,000 jobs in the UK, whether there is 600k, 750k or 900k I don't know and cba researching but you are wrong about the 450k For someone that has ambitions to be an MP your debating skills are appalling, long winded posts are fine, abuse is not |
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26th August 2013, 05:52 PM
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#47
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 BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 13 April 2007
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QUOTE(Sandro Ranieri @ Aug 26 2013, 06:32 PM) Oh come on Tyron This is an internet FORUM It is not a court of law or a session of a commons select committee where you hold a bible up in your hand and say 'what i am about to say is the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth, so help me god' It is not about 100% accuracy and 100% facts it is about OPINION with some facts thrown in for good measure I do not have the TIME to do detailed research nor the inclination to do so either, research and reading drives me insane enough in my paid employment let alone my free time If I am 50,000 out or 100,000 out or 200,000 out does it really really matter? the FACT is that the vast majority of agency jobs are not on UJM, the company I work for uses Michael Page for our recruitment for management and executives, Driver Hire for drivers and Manpower for our warehouse staff, NONE of the jobs, we have hired 47 people this year, appear on UJM/job centres so trust me there are lot more than 450,000 jobs in the UK, whether there is 600k, 750k or 900k I don't know and cba researching but you are wrong about the 450k For someone that has ambitions to be an MP your debating skills are appalling, long winded posts are fine, abuse is not But the point is that they are not facts, they are made up figures. I know Cameron has little regard for the truth but you don't have to follow him. |
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26th August 2013, 05:56 PM
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#48
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BuzzJack Gold Member
Joined: 13 May 2013
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QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Aug 26 2013, 06:52 PM) But the point is that they are not facts, they are made up figures. I know Cameron has little regard for the truth but you don't have to follow him. I think 'guesstimates' are fine, which is what I use and readily admit to I use facts when they are readily available and quick to find, like the CBI predicted growth figures in this very thread, but finding out the exact number of vacancies in the UK job centre and non job centre is a long time consuming experience, if I was doing an economics dissertation for sure I would spend the half hour or hour it takes to research that, for every day debate i go by 'guesstimates' |
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26th August 2013, 06:25 PM
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#49
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IncredibleSquirrel
Joined: 8 March 2006
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QUOTE(Sandro Ranieri @ Aug 26 2013, 06:32 PM) Oh come on Tyron This is an internet FORUM It is not a court of law or a session of a commons select committee where you hold a bible up in your hand and say 'what i am about to say is the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth, so help me god' It is not about 100% accuracy and 100% facts it is about OPINION with some facts thrown in for good measure I do not have the TIME to do detailed research nor the inclination to do so either, research and reading drives me insane enough in my paid employment let alone my free time If I am 50,000 out or 100,000 out or 200,000 out does it really really matter? the FACT is that the vast majority of agency jobs are not on UJM, the company I work for uses Michael Page for our recruitment for management and executives, Driver Hire for drivers and Manpower for our warehouse staff, NONE of the jobs, we have hired 47 people this year, appear on UJM/job centres so trust me there are lot more than 450,000 jobs in the UK, whether there is 600k, 750k or 900k I don't know and cba researching but you are wrong about the 450k For someone that has ambitions to be an MP your debating skills are appalling, long winded posts are fine, abuse is not When I was unemployed plenty of jobs I found through the job centre website had to be applied for through an agency's website. |
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26th August 2013, 06:41 PM
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#50
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DROTTNING!
Joined: 15 April 2006
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QUOTE(Sandro Ranieri @ Aug 26 2013, 06:32 PM) Oh come on Tyron This is an internet FORUM It is not a court of law or a session of a commons select committee where you hold a bible up in your hand and say 'what i am about to say is the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth, so help me god' It is not about 100% accuracy and 100% facts it is about OPINION with some facts thrown in for good measure I do not have the TIME to do detailed research nor the inclination to do so either, research and reading drives me insane enough in my paid employment let alone my free time If I am 50,000 out or 100,000 out or 200,000 out does it really really matter? the FACT is that the vast majority of agency jobs are not on UJM, the company I work for uses Michael Page for our recruitment for management and executives, Driver Hire for drivers and Manpower for our warehouse staff, NONE of the jobs, we have hired 47 people this year, appear on UJM/job centres so trust me there are lot more than 450,000 jobs in the UK, whether there is 600k, 750k or 900k I don't know and cba researching but you are wrong about the 450k For someone that has ambitions to be an MP your debating skills are appalling, long winded posts are fine, abuse is not No, it's not about 100% accuracy. But if you're going to try and use facts to win an argument, making up a figure that suits your argument doesn't exactly work. And I'm more than congenial when someone isn't just making it up they go along 
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26th August 2013, 06:47 PM
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#51
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DROTTNING!
Joined: 15 April 2006
Posts: 63,953 User: 480
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QUOTE(Sandro Ranieri @ Aug 26 2013, 06:56 PM) I think 'guesstimates' are fine, which is what I use and readily admit to I use facts when they are readily available and quick to find, like the CBI predicted growth figures in this very thread, but finding out the exact number of vacancies in the UK job centre and non job centre is a long time consuming experience, if I was doing an economics dissertation for sure I would spend the half hour or hour it takes to research that, for every day debate i go by 'guesstimates' Yeah, but your 'guesstimates' are literally just pulled out of thin air. You're trying to come up with a good reason for doing something as earth-shattering (in terms of the redefinition it brings to how we as a country conduct our trade and what we're subject to) as pulling out of the EU, and you're basing it on a belief that EU migration is the reason for youth unemployment. When a few solid facts are pointed out, all you have to offer is that not all jobs are available through the job centre - which is true, yes - and a really cacky doubling of the number of jobs available based on...what exactly? That none of your jobs were available through the job centre? Ever stopped for one second to think that you aren't necessarily the most representative of employers? In any case, I really, really doubt that the 450k estimate is based entirely on Universal Job Match figures. Do you think any government that wanted to puff the figures on how many jobs there were in the economy on its official statistics would settle for the lowest possible figure if there was clearly more to gain? |
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26th August 2013, 07:04 PM
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#52
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DROTTNING!
Joined: 15 April 2006
Posts: 63,953 User: 480
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This would probably be a bad time to mention that on checking the most updated vacancy statistics as of this month it's now up to 533k vacancies, so I was out too a bit, but still not enough to account for a million unemployed young people given also how inappropriate a large amount of those vacancies would be for those under 25 and without experience, or for any claims that European immigration is what is responsible for youth unemployment.
That said, it took me about half a minute to find out by searching 'vacancies in the UK economy' and going to the Office of National Statistics, which also confirms that vacancies 'are defined as positions for which employers are actively seeking to recruit outside their business or organisation.', rather than the number of jobs on Universal Job Match. Checkmate Sandro
This post has been edited by Cassandra: 26th August 2013, 07:06 PM |
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27th August 2013, 11:57 AM
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#53
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 BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 18 July 2012
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QUOTE(Sandro Ranieri @ Aug 26 2013, 04:41 PM) Interesting insights, I am at work atm so don't have the time to reply fully atm but the riots you talked about in 1981 were not about jobs or unemployment etc, they were in areas like Brixton, Toxteth, Moss Side, Broadwater Farm etc, areas which were heavily populated by young blacks, the riots were caused by police actions and heavy handedness against the black communities, Brixton was caused after police shot a young black man in a drugs raid, Broadwater Farm was revenge for a black woman dying at the hands of the police so it was not about jobs tbh Plus burning down shops/looting shops etc does nothing but put people out of work in those communities Yes, they were mostly race oriented, and i'm not in any way condoning rioting! but they were also unemployed race oriented, and youth unemployment sows seeds of unrest if you've got nothing to lose - look around the world today! Ghost Town (the Specials) caught the mood of the time pretty well, and made fair comments. From my own point of view, I was left to my own devices for the entire Thatcher period got no help no assistance no money to speak of, so I think it's fair to say there are losers and there are winners during recessions. I was a loser, and your career never really recovers from it. Bad news youngsters, you need to get a job right off! I was 32 before I got my first full-time proper job, and I have yet to reach national average wage - quite the reverse, Ive had a few grand taken off and my contract rewritten. If only bankers were subject to the same rules... Fair to say I have a different perspective to Thatcherism and anything remotely like it. Daresay lots of people who made cackloads of dosh are very happy. PS, me in 1982 "Brain the size of a planet and I have to lift drums of chemicals. Don't talk to me about life..." blah blah blah 
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11th September 2013, 05:06 PM
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#54
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#38BBE0 otherwise known as 'sky blue'
Joined: 27 October 2008
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So unemployment has fallen from 7.8 to 7.7% - is this a sign of the economy improving (just in London and the SE, btw) or is it just a pitiful change in the rate of unemployment in an economy that has remained stagnant since 2010, which has seen wages falling in real terms, and a widening gap between the economy of the north and south of the UK with unemployment continuing to rise in the northwest and northeast of England and across Scotland.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-24045546 Osbourne's SMUG face all over the TV angers me muchly. |
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11th September 2013, 10:54 PM
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#55
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BuzzJack Gold Member
Joined: 13 May 2013
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The left need to stop putting a negative spin on good news
Even if unemployment had fallen by 1 over the 3 months that is still 1 person paying tax who wasn't before, 1 person with a sense of purpose again, 1 person who in a single phone call has seen their life change for the better, 1 person who the Daily Mail can't call a feckless workshy scrounger any more Good news should be embraced by people of all political persuasions, we are after all all British and should be proud of Britain |
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11th September 2013, 11:25 PM
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#56
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DROTTNING!
Joined: 15 April 2006
Posts: 63,953 User: 480
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QUOTE(Sandro Ranieri @ Sep 11 2013, 11:54 PM) The left need to stop putting a negative spin on good news Even if unemployment had fallen by 1 over the 3 months that is still 1 person paying tax who wasn't before, 1 person with a sense of purpose again, 1 person who in a single phone call has seen their life change for the better, 1 person who the Daily Mail can't call a feckless workshy scrounger any more Good news should be embraced by people of all political persuasions, we are after all all British and should be proud of Britain Oh like HELL would you be seeing the silver linings and green shoots if it were a Labour government now!
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12th September 2013, 02:27 AM
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#57
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I'm so lonely, I paid a hobo to spoon with me
Joined: 6 February 2010
Posts: 12,908 User: 10,596
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QUOTE(Sandro Ranieri @ Sep 11 2013, 11:54 PM) The left need to stop putting a negative spin on good news Even if unemployment had fallen by 1 over the 3 months that is still 1 person paying tax who wasn't before, 1 person with a sense of purpose again, 1 person who in a single phone call has seen their life change for the better, 1 person who the Daily Mail can't call a feckless workshy scrounger any more Good news should be embraced by people of all political persuasions, we are after all all British and should be proud of Britain NEWS of all descriptions should be analysed and questioned, and in the case of this particular headline found very much wanting. A nationwide drop of 0.1% masks great and widening spatial inequalities, and hell it doesn't even tell us what kind of employment people have found. Zero hours, no doubt. |
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12th September 2013, 12:20 PM
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#58
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BuzzJack Gold Member
Joined: 13 May 2013
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QUOTE(Cassandra @ Sep 12 2013, 12:25 AM) Oh like HELL would you be seeing the silver linings and green shoots if it were a Labour government now! Governments don't create jobs, employers do But no I would welcome a fall in unemployment from government of any party, less money spent on benefits should eventually lead to me paying less tax so getting people off welfare is great |
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12th September 2013, 12:22 PM
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#59
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BuzzJack Gold Member
Joined: 13 May 2013
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QUOTE(¿ DESCONTENTO ? @ Sep 12 2013, 03:27 AM) NEWS of all descriptions should be analysed and questioned, and in the case of this particular headline found very much wanting. A nationwide drop of 0.1% masks great and widening spatial inequalities, and hell it doesn't even tell us what kind of employment people have found. Zero hours, no doubt. The DWP said that people would not lose their benefits through sanction if they turned down zero hours contract jobs so if any of these jobs in the unemployment fall are zero hours the claimant has applied for them under own free will |
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12th September 2013, 03:52 PM
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#60
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I'm so lonely, I paid a hobo to spoon with me
Joined: 6 February 2010
Posts: 12,908 User: 10,596
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QUOTE(Sandro Ranieri @ Sep 12 2013, 01:22 PM) The DWP said that people would not lose their benefits through sanction if they turned down zero hours contract jobs so if any of these jobs in the unemployment fall are zero hours the claimant has applied for them under own free will Spectacularly missing my point - unemployment figures are useless when we have no idea what type of jobs people have, they're not welfare figures so for instance we don't know how many people need the state to top up their wages. Then again, I wouldn't expect you to question the statistics when you assume that everything is fine as long as your taxes are going down. |
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