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 OPINION POLLS 2019-2024, This thread is 'oven-ready' for the latest polls. |
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 Dec 21 2019, 03:06 PM
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#41
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 Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364 
 
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QUOTE(Holly and Izzy @ Dec 21 2019, 03:00 PM)  as much as I do truly enjoy these witty and original ripostés that we regularly partake in... might I suggest that for the sake of our sanity over the next 5 years we a) stop mandating that democratic results create some sort of hallowed opinion that mustn't be criticised and b) stop demonising our political opponents such that there is no hope of changing their minds to vote with us for the next time we are called upon it's a new term, there will be a whole new set of circular arguments to enjoy, peppered of course with occasional remixes of relevant older ones Thank you. |
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Dec 21 2019, 03:19 PM
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#42
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 BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 13 April 2007
Posts: 36,648 User: 3,272
       
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QUOTE(December Dong @ Dec 21 2019, 02:52 PM) No. The Tories are mirroring Russia. It is entirely different. Even the threat of ID made 38% switch to postal votes. What happens? They vote early. Who did that disadvantage? Labour, who are always on the backfoot thanks tooooo ... media brainwashing. Tories want to gerrymander, have the entire media in their pockets, have bbtory filled with Laura Kussenbergs et al, want ID, want to scupper the courts, placed adverts warning about the best politician we've had in a generation, Corbyn, outside polling stations, lied, evaded scrutiny, and even used taxpayer money on anti-Corbyn propaganda in a "hidden" propaganda centre in Scotland. Russia 2.0. Do you have any evidence for these allegations about adverts outside polling stations or this hidden propaganda centre? |
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Dec 21 2019, 03:26 PM
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#43
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 Buffy/Charmed
Joined: 18 April 2013
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There are loads of articles out there it:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailyrecor...rs-13707574.amp The articles about the ads were on facebook. It'll take a while to find. |
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Dec 21 2019, 03:36 PM
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#44
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Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
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DELETED
This post has been edited by vidsanta: Dec 21 2019, 03:37 PM |
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Dec 21 2019, 04:44 PM
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#45
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BuzzJack Legend
Joined: 7 March 2006
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QUOTE(December Dong @ Dec 21 2019, 02:52 PM) placed adverts warning about the best politician we've had in a generation, Corbyn, outside polling stations, Would that be the same great leader that 15 Labour MP's paid thousands of pounds out of their own money to place ads in national newspapers on election day asking voters not to vote for him. Also hardly any candidates made any reference to him on leaflets. Why not if he was the best politician in a generation? This post has been edited by Crazy Chris-tmas: Dec 21 2019, 04:46 PM |
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Dec 21 2019, 08:54 PM
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#46
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Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
Posts: 46,119 User: 5,138
 
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QUOTE(Holly and Izzy @ Dec 21 2019, 03:00 PM) as much as I do truly enjoy these witty and original ripostés that we regularly partake in... might I suggest that for the sake of our sanity over the next 5 years we a) stop mandating that democratic results create some sort of hallowed opinion that mustn't be criticised and b) stop demonising our political opponents such that there is no hope of changing their minds to vote with us for the next time we are called upon it's a new term, there will be a whole new set of circular arguments to enjoy, peppered of course with occasional remixes of relevant older ones Well said! |
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Dec 21 2019, 08:56 PM
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#47
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Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
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QUOTE(Holly and Izzy @ Dec 21 2019, 01:36 PM) Quoting mald's post from the other thread as I wanted to geek out about what future opinion polls will say for 2024 more than discuss Labour selection strategies because the bolded line inspired me to predict. The polls that I think are appropriate to use are the opinion polls following 1983, 1987, 1992 and 2005. Similar margins in Parliament with (in 3/4 cases) comfortable majorities for the winners and the losing party (in 3/4 cases) had a new leader come in straight after the election with a strong need to reinvent itself after a couple of election losses on the trot. In 1983, Foot held on until October, after which Labour saw a significant point uptick in their polling but they didn't get ahead of the Conservatives until 1984, were neck-and-neck through the next few years before being solidly behind in 1987. Kinnock was leading a harshly divided party, and in the circumstance that the Tories successfully manage to navigate the Brexit rapids without too much public backlash and the Labour leadership, left or centrist, is engaged with a hefty battle with the other side of this party, then I'd guess opinion polls will broadly follow the 1983-87 route and we'll be back at this position again in 2024. This is the bad route. If Labour take over a year to get ahead of the Conservatives in polls, it's not good. 1992-1997 is the wishful thinking one with huge majorities clear over the Tories before a year had passed on the election. We'd want a Brexit shock not unlike Black Wednesday and a truly inspiring Labour leader to be taking this route. I very much doubt it's forthcoming, even if for whatever reason there is another Labour leadership election halfway through this Parliament like in this one and a challenger not currently talked of emerges (though of course hopefully not from anyone's premature death). The one factor in common with this one is that the new Labour leader will be in place at a similar timescale to 1992, it only caused a moderate uptick and most of the big shock was after Black Wednesday. I am not hoping for Black Wednesday 2.0. It's unlikely to happen with the transition period but possibly 2021 if 2020 is grossly mismanaged. If Labour are ahead by the middle of 2020, possibly this but more likely... 1987-1992 can also be looked at but with Kinnock staying on, not as immediately helpful. However opinion polls at the election were similar to what we had now, and if Labour elect a decently inspiring leader and the Conservatives suffer a moderate amount of scandals, I'd say we're going in for a tossup election like 1992. If Labour manage to get level once the main events of Brexit unfold, could be on this route. And 2005-2010, with parties reversed, is the most realistic hopeful scenario (for Labour). Cameron wasn't elected until December following the May in 2005, but much like 1987-1992, neck-and-neck until the more serious financial crash of 2008, at which point Conservatives took the lead. If a big economic hit for Brexit takes a few years to really become apparent, then possibly this way. Hung parliament or tossup could be a possibility. 6-12 months before Labour are consistently ahead, with a leader like Starmer I'd say one of these ways. There'll almost certainly be an uptick when the new leader gets in place (if indeed any post-election polls come out before it happens), and how big an uptick depends on how fractured the election looks and the eventual result. I think the chances of Labour overtaking the tories in the opinion polls by next year is unrealistic if JC is there until March. They won't have long left to catch up. |
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Dec 21 2019, 09:00 PM
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#48
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BuzzJack Legend
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QUOTE(ChristmaSteve201 @ Dec 21 2019, 08:56 PM) I think the chances of Labour overtaking the tories in the opinion polls by next year is unrealistic if JC is there until March. They won't have long left to catch up. Agreed. With the euphoria in the country when Brexit is delivered and the subsequent feel-good factor Boris will get all the thanks in the opinion polls. |
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Dec 21 2019, 09:14 PM
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#49
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Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
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Always remember the 'euphoria' is only by certain sections.
It's led to a load of other issues, Scotland will want its second referendum and the economic impacts will be interesting to see. |
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Dec 21 2019, 09:15 PM
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#50
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 I'm a paragon so don't perceive me
Joined: 3 February 2011
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QUOTE(ChristmaSteve201 @ Dec 21 2019, 08:56 PM) I think the chances of Labour overtaking the tories in the opinion polls by next year is unrealistic if JC is there until March. They won't have long left to catch up. New leaders of either party historically draw level almost as soon as they're elected, based on past evidence the amount of time between the election and new leadership doesn't matter as when it happens will be the turning point. However this time next year, if we're hoping for a good or passable result at 2024 and aren't going to be relying on significant outside events, we'd want Labour to be averaging at least a couple points clear. |
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Dec 21 2019, 09:16 PM
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#51
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Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
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I personally think that's an unrealistic timetable but we shall have to see.
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 Dec 21 2019, 10:44 PM
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#52
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BuzzJack Enthusiast
Joined: 1 June 2013
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QUOTE(Crazy Chris-tmas @ Dec 21 2019, 09:00 PM) Agreed. With the euphoria in the country when Brexit is delivered and the subsequent feel-good factor Boris will get all the thanks in the opinion polls. Euphoria is very much an over statement I think. Sure, people who voted leave will be happy, but.. a.) They were only a narrow majority b.)Nearly as many people won't be happy c.) ..and this is probably the biggest group of people ...people who ticked a box three years ago(either leave or remain) based upon their limited knowledge of the EU, don't really care THAT much and will just be relieved it's out of the headlines. That being said, I will concede that with the Tories being seen as the ones carrying out the "will of the people", will probably keep them ahead of labour for the foreseeable future, at least until the economic impacts of Brexit actually kick in. This post has been edited by mald487: Dec 21 2019, 10:48 PM |
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Dec 21 2019, 11:01 PM
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#53
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 #38BBE0 otherwise known as 'sky blue'
Joined: 27 October 2008
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I don't think the polling for Labour next year is going to be any kind of indicator as to their performance at the next General Election, we all remember the period 2011-2014 when they were consistently polling ahead and look what happened in 2015. It's true that if they don't at least improve on 32% then it doesn't look good but I wouldn't expect much change to be honest.
 Reason being, the 40% plus vote for the Conservatives as the de-facto 'Brexit' Party is solid and will hold for the foreseeable unless there are any Black Swan events. |
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Dec 22 2019, 12:57 AM
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#54
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Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
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Hopefully the earth falls in when Brexit gets done like evryone said and labour will sail through.
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Dec 22 2019, 05:43 AM
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#55
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Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
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QUOTE(ChristmaSteve201 @ Dec 22 2019, 12:57 AM) Hopefully the earth falls in when Brexit gets done like evryone said and labour will sail through. Do you seriously *want* Brexit to fail, and the country to suffer, just to say 'I told you so'?? |
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Dec 22 2019, 10:09 AM
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#56
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Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
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Do you just want Brexit to happen just to say I told you so? Do English MPs once again want to risk dragging everyone else into their version of Little England and threaten the union?
No but I think it will be worse for the country. |
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Dec 22 2019, 10:49 AM
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#57
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Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364
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QUOTE(ChristmaSteve201 @ Dec 22 2019, 10:09 AM) Do you just want Brexit to happen just to say I told you so? Do English MPs once again want to risk dragging everyone else into their version of Little England and threaten the union? No but I think it will be worse for the country. I and a lot of other people still want it to happen, according to the GE result. |
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Dec 22 2019, 10:53 AM
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#58
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Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
Posts: 46,119 User: 5,138
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Indeed but then again more people voted for anti Brexit parties in the GE overall.
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Dec 22 2019, 02:37 PM
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#59
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Paul Hyett
Joined: 4 April 2006
Posts: 25,346 User: 364
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QUOTE(ChristmaSteve201 @ Dec 22 2019, 10:53 AM) Indeed but then again more people voted for anti Brexit parties in the GE overall. But a Brexit-supporting party still won. |
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Dec 22 2019, 02:50 PM
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#60
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Shakin Stevens
Joined: 29 December 2007
Posts: 46,119 User: 5,138
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Well yes on a First Past the Post election which is unrepresentative of the whole electorate and it doesn't really confirm whether people actually wanted Brexit still. But I'm a supporter of making the referendum result count so we agree on that.
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