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Adele pre-release predictions
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dancember
post Oct 13 2019, 11:11 AM
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A new Adele single and album will be coming very shortly but what kind of numbers do we think will they do based on her name power?

'Hello' opened on 330k (including 295k downloads) back in 2015 with opening Spotify figures of 547,875 (a record for the time - and peaked later on 765,449). The album '25' did even better opening on 803k.

Considering the collapse of downloads and albums sales I can't see her quite matching those sales figures this time around although I suspect she'll easily be able to do well over a million Spotify streams now.

I'll predict for now (subject to change once we've heard the song of course)

Singles Sales: 200k
First Day Streams: 1.2m
Albums Sales: 400k (really not sure on this though!)
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𝕮𝖖𝖒𝖊𝖗𝖖𝖓
post Oct 13 2019, 11:22 AM
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Single sales: 236k
First day streams: 1.5m
Album sales: 550k
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dobcember
post Oct 13 2019, 11:23 AM
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Everyone thought those numbers were impossible in 2015 so I wouldn't write her off beating all those totals.

From a personal standpoint, let me get back in my underground bunker for a few months until Storm Adele IV blows over nocheer.gif
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Frenchie
post Oct 13 2019, 11:28 AM
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Single sales: 100k
First day streams: 1.5m
Album sales: 500k

So hard to predict the single sales cause of low downloads, but I do think the streams will be huge.
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𝕮𝖖𝖒𝖊𝖗𝖖𝖓
post Oct 13 2019, 11:32 AM
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QUOTE(Frenchie @ Oct 13 2019, 12:28 PM) *
Single sales: 100k
First day streams: 1.5m
Album sales: 500k

So hard to predict the single sales cause of low downloads, but I do think the streams will be huge.

With streams like that id be surprised if she only managed 100k!
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Frenchie
post Oct 13 2019, 11:40 AM
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QUOTE(Cqmerqn @ Oct 13 2019, 12:32 PM) *
With streams like that id be surprised if she only managed 100k!


I'm not so sure. If the streams stay high all week and she reaches 10 million, that's only around 65-70,000 sales if my calculations are correct. So she would have to get 30,000 downloads which I'm not sure is gonna happen seeing as recently the number 1 song has been struggling to even reach 10k.
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dancember
post Oct 13 2019, 11:46 AM
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She'll also have a good chunk of streams from Apple Music plus if she drops a video her YouTube streams will be massive.
Could easily see her doing 30k downloads too, I suspect she still has quite a few fans who haven't switched to streaming yet.
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Jonjo
post Oct 13 2019, 11:48 AM
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100k-150k
800k-1m
200k-300k
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gavindeejay
post Oct 13 2019, 11:51 AM
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First week sales Iíll say between 100-150k probably about the 120 mark to be exact.
First day Spotify 1.4million
Album sales 300-400k and sales to stay above 200k until after Christmas


This post has been edited by gavindeejay: Oct 13 2019, 11:52 AM
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Frenchie
post Oct 13 2019, 11:52 AM
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QUOTE(danG @ Oct 13 2019, 12:46 PM) *
She'll also have a good chunk of streams from Apple Music plus if she drops a video her YouTube streams will be massive.
Could easily see her doing 30k downloads too, I suspect she still has quite a few fans who haven't switched to streaming yet.


Oh yeah I always forget about YouTube. But I'm still not sure she will exceed 150k. Will be a good test to see if iTunes really is dead!
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777666jason
post Oct 13 2019, 11:54 AM
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Either way she will likely be huge compared to everything else but will actually do adele (no one else to really compare her to laugh.gif ) numbers again , i would have expected eds new one to be way past double platinum (after divides success) by now buts its still got a long way to go, at least she has the not been in peoples faces for 5 years factor on her side
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Jordan Lee
post Oct 13 2019, 12:03 PM
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I could see her maybe doing 40-50K on pure sales with a further 100-125K from streaming sites. with the single.

First day streams maybe just over the million mark.

Then the album I think will cross 500,000K but itís harder to predict the sales / streams divide of the album as I donít know if itíll be on streaming sites straight away. If it is maybe 575-600K with added streaming sales. I imagine itíll break records for views on YouTube too.

Itís so hard to predict though because she could easily exceed. With Adele I think a lot of her fans are still physical buyers but sheís also pretty big on streaming sites too.


This post has been edited by Jordan Lee: Oct 13 2019, 12:09 PM
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FelizNavidad
post Oct 13 2019, 12:33 PM
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prospero aŮo y felicidad
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Singles 100-150k - at the most 30-40k on downloads
Streams 1-1.2m as a wild guess
Albums 200-300k, but could be higher if closer to Christmas - a lot of people will be getting it as a present and can see it passing 750k by then which should guarantee it as the year's top seller.
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lewis🎄green
post Oct 13 2019, 12:41 PM
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People predicting more than 1.4m million streams in its first day laugh.gif Worldwide maybe yeah but not solely here in the UK!
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slowdown73
post Oct 13 2019, 01:01 PM
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Singles: 150k max
Album: 250k max

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Bjork
post Oct 13 2019, 01:01 PM
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for comparison, I just checked and Shape of you opened with 1,280,000 streams in the UK on day 1

This post has been edited by Bjork: Oct 13 2019, 01:07 PM
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lewis🎄green
post Oct 13 2019, 01:06 PM
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QUOTE(Bjork @ Oct 13 2019, 02:01 PM) *
for comparison, I just checked and Shape of you opened with 1,280,000 downloads in the UK on day 1


I'm sorry? It sold over a million copies on its first day? That's not right.. The OCC confirmed it sold 787,000 downloads at the end of 2017... did you mean streams?
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Bjork
post Oct 13 2019, 01:07 PM
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sorry meant streams biggrin.gif
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___∆___
post Oct 13 2019, 01:40 PM
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From a Music Week article today - updated sales for 21.

QUOTE
Adeleís 21 (XL Recordings) has sales of 5,162,672, according to the Official Charts Company.
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vidsanta
post Oct 13 2019, 02:09 PM
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Album - instant platinum, and YTD #1 in 2 weeks.
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