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Posted by: LexC 18th March 2017, 09:18 PM

As is tradition, I bring you the predictions thread.

• Feel free to go into as much or as little depth and detail as you wish, from ‘I think the UK Germany will come last’ to full predictions of everyone’s positions with points and justifications essays.
• You will make some predictions that turn out to be wrong, that's the name of the game. The challenge will be to see if you can end up with comparatively less egg on your face than everyone else, just make sure you've thought through your bold assertions before you make them.
• New information comes to light all the time between now and the live show so you can revise your predictions as often as you like (within reason though, obviously).
• If you're Ryan and you say something ridiculous like "PKN are coming top of the televote" or "Zoe isn't qualifying" then prepare to be scalpT

BuzzJack, start predicting NOW!

Posted by: LexC 18th March 2017, 09:19 PM

And if you want to see how way off we were last year, http://www.buzzjack.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=188460 be last year's thread.

Posted by: J▲hq 18th March 2017, 09:58 PM

Or "Italy aren't winning"



Semi 1

Feel pretty confident on these
Sweden
Belgium
Azerbaijan
Portugal

Think these are safe bets (in part due to past form)
Armenia
Greece
Poland
Australia

In terms of quality, these SHOULD be through (but I worry these may be what we're weeping for on the evening of May 9th)
Latvia
Iceland
--
These could sneak in
Finland
Moldova
Montenegro
Cyprus

I would be shocked at these (and maybe a little disgusted)
Slovenia
Albania
Georgia
Czech Republic



Semi 2

Will eat my hat etc.
Romania
Serbia
Bulgaria
Estonia
Israel

One of the best entries of the year (but it's MACEDONIA)
Macedonia

Don't really get this (but they've been in every final since 2011)
Hungary

Safe enough
Belarus

Final two picks
Denmark
Netherlands
--
Not ruling it out (though in the case of Russia I f***ing wish I could!)
Russia
Austria
Switzerland
Norway
Lithuania

I'm ruling you out (unless Europe LIVES for the crazy!)
Croatia
Ireland
Malta
San Marino

Posted by: LexC 18th March 2017, 10:02 PM

Or

Posted by: gooddelta 18th March 2017, 10:06 PM

1. Italy

No idea after that...! I don't think Sweden will be as high as second as the odds currently suggest, but beyond what I believe will be a relatively clear winner (as in, by at least 50 points) I don't know right now how things will line up underneath.

Posted by: J▲hq 18th March 2017, 10:13 PM

I mean it does feel WRONG to be 'confident' on Portugal of all countries, especially when I consider the song a total bore myself (like third least favourite), but the odds and story around him have really drawn me in..

Posted by: LexC 18th March 2017, 10:23 PM

https://escoverthinker.tumblr.com/post/158563107279/song-9-portugal-salvador-sobral-amar-pelos

(I was working on this one anyway, I'm not so quick at writing these that I can knock that out in five minutes, I hasten to add)

Posted by: LexC 18th March 2017, 10:24 PM

Like how the odds and story around PKN resulted in them coming last in their semi?

Posted by: Cameron 18th March 2017, 10:26 PM

I just want Switzerland, Azerbaijan and Denmark to somehow all qualify. I know Switzerland are esc flops but I live in hope

Posted by: Iz~ 18th March 2017, 10:33 PM

I have not been understanding one bit the hype about Portugal either. There is so much nothing there on first listen, the song sounds ancient in style, there's HIM, and I think we've established that the elderly just don't vote as much as we think they do. Or at least they don't vote how we'd expect them to.

Lex sums it up perfectly in his article but I also feel compelled to share https://izzystarsblog.wordpress.com/2017/03/14/eurovision-2017-entry-in-depth-iberia-spain-portugal/ a few days ago, I'm doing the whole entry overview thing from a position more of EMOTION and personal opinion, so as to not completely be stealing your thunder there Lex but I did talk a bit about how I expect it out, but on the borderline, I'm not quite as confident as Lex in predicting it straight out.

I'm definitely going to attempt a full prediction soon. I got several things completely wrong on my first prediction in that thread last year so I want to be a bit more careful with how I approach this.

Posted by: Umi 18th March 2017, 10:47 PM

'Amar pelos dois' is basically the new 'Sognu', isn't it?

Posted by: Ryan. 19th March 2017, 12:12 AM

Going to do mine by splitting up the jury and televote as when I did it last year I actually predicted Bosnia & H and Greece to DNQ. When I did my normal predictions I didn't have the guts to do it so it seemingly helps me be more objective about things! All predictions are calculated by adding the two votes together with lowest winning except for Romania who get a bit of a boost for being an easy televote winner.

Semi-Final One

Overall Prediction - Televote Prediction - Jury Prediction

01 02 01 Belgium: Blanche - City Lights
02 03 03 Sweden: Robin Bengtsson - I Can't Go On
03 06 04 Australia: Isaiah - Don't Come Easy
04 09 02 Portugal: Salvador Sobral - Amar Pelos Dois
05 01 14 Greece: Demy - This Is Love
06 08 07 Azerbaijan: Dihaj - Skeletons
07 05 13 Armenia: Artsvik - Fly With Me
08 12 06 Iceland: Svala - Paper
09 04 16 Moldova: Sunstroke Project - Hey Mamma
10 16 05 Finland: Norma John - Blackbird
11 07 15 Poland: Kasia Moś - Flashlight
12 14 08 Albania: Lindita - World
13 11 11 Latvia: Triana Park - Line
14 13 10 Georgia: Tamara Gachechiladze - Keep The Faith
15 17 09 Czech Republic: Martina Bárta - My Turn
16 15 12 Cyprus: Hovig - Gravity
17 10 18 Montenegro: Slavko Kalezić - Space
18 18 17 Slovenia: Omar Naber - On My Way

Semi-Final Two

Overall Prediction - Televote Prediction - Jury Prediction

01 02 01 Bulgaria: Kristian Kostov - Beautiful Mess
02 05 02 Denmark: Anja - Where I Am
03 07 03 The Netherlands: OG3NE - Lights And Shadows
04 01 14 Romania: Ilinca ft. Alex Florea - Yodel It!
05 03 11 Estonia: Koit Toome and Laura - Verona
06 08 06 Belarus: Naviband - Story Of My Life
07 12 04 Switzerland: Timebelle - Apollo
08 06 10 Israel: IMRI - I Feel Alive
09 10 08 F.Y.R. Macedonia: Jana Burčeska - Dance Alone
10 11 09 Serbia: Tijana Bogićević - In Too Deep
11 04 18 Russia: Julia Samoylova - Flame Is Burning
12 18 05 Malta: Claudia Faniello - Breathlessly
13 16 07 Norway: JOWST - Grab The Moment
14 09 16 Croatia: Jacques Houdek - My Friend
15 15 12 Austria: Nathan Trent - Running On Air
16 13 15 Hungary: Joci Pápai - Origo
17 14 17 Lithuania: Fusedmarc - Rain Of Revolution
18 19 13 Ireland: Brendan Murray - Dying To Try
19 17 19 San Marino: Valentina Monetta & Jimmie Wilson - Spirit Of The Night

I'll give individual reasons at some point like I did last year. Very very difficult to order them at this early stage and I'm sure I'll be making edits, but I am happy with my 2 top 10s there! I didn't add the votes up until after doing each separate half so I didn't know what my result was going to look like but it has come out similar to what I had in my head so I'm going with this.

Posted by: Umi 19th March 2017, 12:45 AM

Are you basing your prediction for Serbia on Malta's performance last year? I can't see how they do anywhere near as poorly in the televote as that.

Posted by: RobBob 19th March 2017, 12:52 AM

I think Romania's televote success might be being overestimated quite a bit, that's my prediction.

Posted by: LexC 19th March 2017, 12:52 AM

And I don't think Romania is going to be anywhere near as low as fourteenth with the jury. It's too much of a standard pop song to be universally snubbed in such a way.

Posted by: ScottyEm 19th March 2017, 10:33 AM

In no particular order:

Semi 1

Australia
Azerbaijan
Belgium
Sweden
Portugal (could literally go either way)
Armenia
Cyprus
Iceland (so long as they sort out the staging and styling)
Latvia
Poland (dyaspora and the song isn't COMPLETELY atrocious, so will probably sneak in)

The token shock: realising Semi 1 is more competitive than previously thought, I think Greece may struggle again. I don't think the juries will be overly enthusiastic and it's too generic to pull in the televotes? Could be wrong...


Semi 2

Denmark (total borderline though, it's generic as hell but will sneak in with it being a rather shoddy year)
Hungary
FYR Macedonia
Romania
Russia (jury may place this outside the top ten but televote will prop it upwards)
Serbia
Bulgaria
Estonia (I hope... I can see this being a potential fanwank also)
Israel
Lithuania (dyaspora and a likely cleaned up version for Kiev will get it through)

The token shock: Lithuania qualifying.

Posted by: AdamAloud 19th March 2017, 06:32 PM

Not doing specific positions yet, it's too hard without the running order/hints about staging.

Semi 1
Australia
Azerbaijan
Belgium
Georgia
Greece
Iceland
Latvia
Moldova
Poland
Sweden

Semi 2
Belarus
Bulgaria
Croatia
Denmark
Estonia
Hungary
Israel
Macedonia
Romania
The Netherlands

Posted by: Ryan. 19th March 2017, 07:39 PM

I wasn't actually but coming to think of it that could be a valid comparison there. In Too Deep is a very professionally produced pop song but there's nothing about it that makes me think people are going to rush to their phones to vote for it. I think juries will actually prefer it to televoters due to its contemporary nature. Of course we haven't seen Tijana live and she could be amazing, but from what I've seen and heard she doesn't seem to be anything particularly amazing or have a massive likeability factor (see Poli and potentially Jana). Serbia no longer have the advantage of being uptempo as the second half is filled with them and will be performed in better positions. Serbia's lack of televoting support on occasions has continued to surprise me also and I'm not getting caught out again! I still think she'll qualify of course, but I imagine her doing what Sanja did and squeeze through rather than be safely through.



Yeah perhaps, there's nothing else in this semi that screams obvious televote winner so I've gone with the most memorable thing that isn't going to be overly polarising (see Croatia).



That's just based on rap's horrendous record with juries. The only time I remember a rap song doing okay is Greece 2011 and even that was only 9th with prime running order slot. Indeed, with the current voting system Greece wouldn't won that semi overall - Azerbaijan would have done.

Posted by: Liаm 20th March 2017, 04:44 AM

I'll maybe do proper predix later but I am so prepared for Iceland to unjustly DNQ again

Posted by: David 20th March 2017, 07:28 PM

Always fun doing the first set of predictions. Probably wildly inaccurate, but here we go!

First Semi Final

01 Portugal
02 Belgium
03 Armenia
04 Azerbaijan
05 Moldova
06 Iceland
07 Sweden
08 Australia
09 Greece
10 Montenegro
11 Finland
12 Cyprus
13 Albania
14 Czech Republic
15 Latvia
16 Georgia
17 Poland
18 Slovenia

Second Semi Final

01 Estonia
02 Hungary
03 Bulgaria
04 FYR Macedonia
05 Serbia
06 Israel
07 Romania
08 Belarus
09 Netherlands
10 Croatia
11 Russia
12 Austria
13 San Marino
14 Denmark
15 Norway
16 Switzerland
17 Lithuania
18 Ireland
19 Malta

Final

01 Italy
02 Portugal
03 Armenia
04 Belgium
05 Estonia
06 Bulgaria
07 Iceland
08 Hungary
09 FYR Macedonia
10 Romania
11 Australia
12 Sweden
13 Spain
14 Azerbaijan
15 Montenegro
16 United Kingdom
17 Moldova
18 Serbia
19 France
20 Belarus
21 Greece
22 Israel
23 Ukraine
24 Croatia
25 Germany
26 Netherlands

Posted by: Cameron 20th March 2017, 07:42 PM

Not here for these Switzerland predictions.

Posted by: ScottyEm 20th March 2017, 09:37 PM

Wildly inaccurate you say?

Mind you, there's been a bit of noise made about Sweden potentially flopping (relative to Swedish standards) but I totally don't see it. I think this will win the Semi.

Posted by: David 20th March 2017, 10:17 PM

I can't see it myself. Their lowest result since 2013 beckons if you ask me! Interested to hear his live vocals for the high notes as well, seeing as he barely sung any of them at Melfest!

Posted by: gooddelta 20th March 2017, 11:42 PM

I think Sweden will be low top ten in the final. It wasn't the favourite of the Swedish public and I doubt it will rake in huge televotes from across the continent either. It's a fantastic performance/staging, which will win it a lot of points, but the song itself is not exceptional. Take out the staging and it's a midtable type entry.

Still, the fact that they can get at least a midtable with a fairly standard Melodifestivalen winner makes me wonder what caused that floppy period of theirs between 2007-2010. So much effort into the national final and they came out with three low finishes and a DNQ!

I was talking to my girlfriend's Swedish friend when I was in Stockholm and she said the whole country was certain that Hero would win Eurovision 2008, right up until the results started coming in She said they often think there's a chance they might win/come top five but on this occation everybody was certain that they had it sewn up as soon as Hero won Melodifestivalen!

I don't know if they have the same blind faith in Robin...presumably not, it didn't cause much of a buzz as a winner really, most people in the crowd were pissed that Nano didn't win. I reckon that would have done even worse for them but we'll never know!

Posted by: Casahovah 21st March 2017, 12:08 AM

Very Early and subject to revision Semi Predictions

Country Total Points (Jury Points+Televote Points)

Semi One

01 Belgium 348 (182+166)
02 Sweden 248 (107+141)
03 Australia 195 (120+75)
04 Greece 173 (53+120)
05 Latvia 154 (65+89)
06 Iceland 139 (88+51)
07 Poland 132 (70+62)
08 Armenia 118 (58+60)
09 Montenegro 115 (30+85)
10 Azerbaijan 115 (46+69)
---
11 Georgia 114 (53+61)
12 Albania 113 (56+57)
13 Moldova 111 (45+66)
14 Portugal 106 (73+33)
15 Finland 102 (77+25)
16 Cyprus 76 (39+37)
17 Czech Republic 40 (37+3)
18 Slovenia 37 (19+18)

Obviously between 8th and 15th it's mega tight so not even my "100 points" hypothesis would be enough to nail on qualification here. To my mind that probably means Portugal and Finland are even more dead than I thought they were.

Semi Two

01 Israel 274 (140+134)
02 Romania 235 (55+180)
03 Serbia 196 (117+79)
04 Bulgaria 178 (94+84)
05 Estonia 174 (69+105)
06 Netherlands 172 (128+44)
07 Macedonia 170 (82+88)
08 Belarus 147 (66+81)
09 Denmark 145 (91+54)
10 Austria 114 (63+51)
---
11 Croatia 111 (62+49)
12 Lithuania 96 (39+57)
13 Switzerland 91 (52+39)
14 San Marino 87 (48+39)
15 Hungary 86 (40+46)
16 Russia 84 (25+59)
17 Norway 76(36+40)
18 Ireland 68 (39+29)
19 Malta 48 (30+18)

Israel is being very underrated for what to my mind is the strongest uptempo pop song in the second half performed by somebody who'se got proven form in nailing that kind of performance. Russia actually don't have anywhere near as many friends as they're used to in this semi and the jury is going to hate it so I'm ~reasonably~ confident that they're out at the present time.

Posted by: Casahovah 21st March 2017, 06:32 PM

https://escoverthinker.tumblr.com/post/158672917784/song-10-italy-francesco-gabbani-occidentalis

Posted by: Iz~ 21st March 2017, 06:55 PM

I never had Italy as a contender when it first won for precisely the reason that it wasn't a convincing San Remo win. I think it's still quite likely to win in spite of all those reasons you listed because there's so little else.

Honestly the song besides it that sounds most like an all encompassing wide appeal + strength is France and that's still... in French. So it's got to be suffering from all the same problems as Italy only more likely to underperform.

What this is leading me towards is a shock win from something impeccably performed that we haven't latched onto yet. Or this is where Eurovision finally succumbs to trends and Bulgaria wins.

Posted by: gooddelta 21st March 2017, 07:11 PM

Great post Lex, but (and I'm prepared to get egg on my face here), sometimes things just just happen for no real rational reason, and I think an Italy landslide will be one of these, despite seeing a lot of truth and sense in a lot of the points you've mentioned.

It sort of reminds me of Doctor Blind's 350k sales prediction for Ed Sheeran's Divide first week...all very well thought out and based on fact, trends and informed calculations, yet he was still like 300k or more out (as I believed he would be) because sometimes you just can't ignore a hype train rolling out of the station, and this is what I think is happening with Italy here. Lena won in 2010 with a similar hype train, and from a similar position of not having the semi-final exposure.

Actually, the two biggest reasons I'd mark it out for possibly not winning are:

1) The language barrier - only one non English language song has won this century
2) His voice is actually not that commercial...I love the track but I think I'd truly love it ten times more if he didn't have such a gravelly voice

Posted by: Ryan. 21st March 2017, 07:12 PM

I've never thought Italy would be a runaway winner, I agree it will probably top the televote and finish slightly lower with juries. However bar an Australia-esque jury landslide I can't see it being an issue. A fascinating read though, I started to question myself!

If I was to choose their biggest contender, I'd also go for Bulgaria at this point in time. Kristian being just 17, very young-looking with an apparently very strong live voice will appeal to televoters. I also think Beautiful Mess could go the way of Sound of Silence when performed live, BNT have apparently made staging one of the top priorities when selecting their entry and I think Kristian will be able to give this a more obvious climax live just as Dami did - her studio version was over-repetitive and didn't allow her voice to deviate from the melody. Therefore that will appeal to juries.

Throw in a bit of diaspora support from both Bulgaria (BNT managed to activate them well last year with various articles encouraging them to vote etc) and Russia (Kristian was born in Moscow), particularly if Julia doesn't progress past the semi (see the Azerbaijan in 2011 benefiting from Turkey's elimination televoting-wise theory) then that could push him over the line.

If there's an entry that's going to do a Ukraine and finish solid 2nds in both votes while and Italy finishes 1st and 5th then at this stage I think Bulgaria.

Posted by: gooddelta 21st March 2017, 07:15 PM

Also, I'm really really willing Australia to underperform...I'm sure if Cyprus had turned up with that song I don't think anybody would be tipping it for the top ten.

It's just so very bland, though I'm mildly amused that the chorus melody is like a slowed down version of the verse melody in Blue's One Love

Posted by: Iz~ 21st March 2017, 07:19 PM

I'm surprised more people aren't predicting Australia to compeletly crash and burn, it's not like they have any built in loyalties around here and I'd say three years is sufficient time for the novelty to wear off with a less than stellar song.

In fact the only reason I don't think I'll be predicting it out is because I can't see much in semi 1 that'll replace it rather than something else.

Posted by: ScottyEm 21st March 2017, 07:19 PM

On reflection, the staging for "hero' did have a sort-of corporate feel to it. I don't think it was 'out there' enough to pull in the votes (but, that aside, it's a total guilty pleasure for me).

I get "I Can't Go On" is not not as monumental as "Euphoria" but the staging has such massive impact, it'll mask any ordinariness of the song. I just can't see it placing outside the top three especially in a relatively poor year. Italy, IMO will need to storm the televote to edge it. A tricky one to predict?

Posted by: gooddelta 21st March 2017, 07:26 PM

Oh god yeah, the staging was an abomination, she looked like an alien and the whole blue/black/white thing was creepy. That said, I'm guessing it still wouldn't have done that much better even staged well, Shady Lady sort of did a similar thing in a much more effective way and stole all of Hero's votes (even though I prefer Hero to Shady Lady based on studio versions).

I guess it's hard to tell right now how much impact Robin's staging will have without knowing what everyone else will be doing at Eurovision, but yes at Melodifestivalen it certainly stood out hugely thanks to that. It elevated the song from a mid-table finalist to a winner and it could well elevate it from a mid-table Eurovision finisher to a safe top ten.

Posted by: Casahovah 21st March 2017, 07:56 PM

BIB - I couldn't disagree with you more. Everything happens for a reason. And one person's sales prediction doesn't disprove that (and even if it did, that's quantitative data rather than qualitative which is what music, language and feelings are). Yes there's a hype train but who's driving the hype train? Has that driver driven the hype train before and crashed it?

The Lena comparison is an interesting one but that was still, at it's core, a song about being in love with someone performed by a cutesy young girl, not a kitschy number by some guy pushing middle aged. Plus it's arguable that won more from context of being the last contemporary uptempo pop song performed near the end of the show than it charting in countries that weren't even competing that year. Hype isn't everything.

Posted by: ScottyEm 21st March 2017, 08:00 PM

Yes to this. Australia aren't on point this year, maybe they genuinely think this will suffice as a potential winner?!

Speaking of Cyprus, it seems to be just me who has this marked as a qualifier? Surprised at the muted response it's getting. It's not amazing, but easily good enough for the final?

Posted by: David 21st March 2017, 08:04 PM

It's certainly possible that Australia can finish low down. The song is nothing special at all, and like people have mentioned, they're only being highly predicted by people based upon the past couple of years. I remember in 2014 many people thought Italy and Azerbaijan were shoe-ins for top 10/15 (probably based on their performances from recent years), but both crashed in the final.

Posted by: David 21st March 2017, 08:05 PM

Oh also Australia's song is a really poor version of Bulgaria, so there's a chance Bulgaria will take many of its votes too...

Posted by: J▲hq 21st March 2017, 08:09 PM

I think the first point is a fair enough one to make. The second is to an extent, Belgium could win but live performance wise it's not as proven and I don't really think it will beat Rhythm Inside. Bulgaria, maybe. But I don't buy that Israel or Estonia are any more than fan w*** entries that are destined for mid table at best (the feeling I get of the general opinion is that Israel isn't quite as good as Golden Boy, and Estonia is basically Denmark 2010 but in 2017 so even more dated). Australia aren't winning with what is widely agreed to be their worst entry. For me, it's Sweden if not Italy, but it has the same 'problem' of not winning the televote in the national final and comes off a little cold like Russia did last year.

IMO, Italy topping the 2015 televote convincingly is proof enough that foreign language or auto-qualifier won't matter, I think it's just as catchy and instant as Lena was.

Posted by: Casahovah 21st March 2017, 08:16 PM

I think people are just being a bit salty about Australia because it came at a time when we really didn't need any more ballads but now the balance has evened out I think it's a perfectly capable ballad and I know Liam will disagree but to be able to win X Factor you do need to be at least mildly good at performing songs to a television audience. I do agree that the votes will either swing behind them or Bulgaria though, so they could well come about 13th on the televote but get dragged into the top 10 by the juries.

Posted by: gooddelta 21st March 2017, 08:46 PM

I know what you're saying but there are so many unexpected results in Eurovision. Things that rationalisation just can't seem to fully explain.

Like Marie N winning for Latvia in 2002 (not saying this just because I don't like it, but seriously, how did it win - was the striptease act really enough by itself for victory? - I've never met anybody who claims to love the track/nobody talked about it after the contest and it was forgotten in a heartbeat)...or Sognu/Rockefeller Street doing so terribly in 2011 or Molly in 2014...how were we all so wrong on these when they all should have rationally probably done the opposite to how they performed.

We can certainly make excuses in hindsight for all of these things happening...the vocals were underhwelming, the staging was wrong etc...but the performance and staging are crap on so many top five finishing entries too, so how do they get away with it where others can't?

And...going off on a tangent again...but I've still never got my head around Atomic Kitten going straight to #1 with Whole Again! How did that happen? Rationally, how does a song with no airplay or any sort of buzz from a floppy manufactured pop band on their last legs debut at #1? Sure, once it had the exposure of getting that #1 it blossomed into a 'classic' but how did it get to that position of getting to #1 in the first place?

I definitely don't believe that there is an easily explanatory reason behind everything, and that's reflected in Eurovision a lot imo.

Posted by: Casahovah 21st March 2017, 08:57 PM

I suppose we'll just agree to disagree on the subject then (and see who's got the least egg on their face come May 14th ).

Posted by: gooddelta 21st March 2017, 09:04 PM

Ha! Indeed. I wouldn't be at all bothered if Italy don't win...unless something crap does! It's not my favourite of the year by any means and I always enjoy a surprise victor. Just my gut feeling is telling me this will be an easy winner.

But we'll definitely see, I thought the same about many entries that haven't done so! My 2011 predictions were so far out it's not funny and my 2014 predictions weren't up to much either, so going by the three-year rule I could be set to slip up spectacularly again!

Posted by: Liаm 21st March 2017, 09:19 PM

Oh Australia is deffo gonna be a jury hit, he is fine at performing ballads so is more than capable I just hate the song I agree it'll probably be borderline on televotes, like say 7th-10th, and then really buoyed up by the juries. I think the final could go anything from about 5th to 15th, but that's the same for a lot of songs. It's so hard to call this year, not helped by the fact that I'm crap at predicting!

I am still of the opinion Italy has this, but with it being what feels like the only vague contender I wouldn't be entirely shocked if it didn't either. I get the qualms about his voice but it's not TOO bad so I don't think that will harm it too much. I think something we don't expect will come out of nowhere in the semis, nobody really expected a top 2 of Conchita and Common Linnets in 2014 before the semis for example. I couldn't begin to imagine what will do that, but that's the fun of Eurovision. I'd be totally fine with Italy storming it but a surprise victory is always fun. Conchita and to a lesser extent Jamala (I did have a "this could be a shock win" vibe after it won the selection but I stopped thinking that) were such moments partially because of that. It's always fun when someone just happens to have a really good performance that hits Europe and they knock the favourites out of the way. I hope perhaps Belgium can do it?

Posted by: J▲hq 21st March 2017, 09:30 PM

Someone who did see the Conchita win coming - we need Tom Kay back to set us all straight on what's going to happen this year!

Posted by: gooddelta 21st March 2017, 09:42 PM

I could ask him I spoke to him on FB last week. Some of his predictions were also traditionally well off mind.

My sister - as a casual observer - used to be very good at this. I wonder if it helps sometimes to be looking in from the outside, as fans can get emotionally attached to songs and overrate them.

She predicted Lordi in 2006 and Marija in 2007, both from the first listen, and neither were locked in favourites, Lordi certainly were only predicted to come low top 10 but she was pretty sure they'd run away with it from the first time she heard it.

Posted by: Iz~ 21st March 2017, 09:44 PM

I'm going to call Croatia nailing down their obviously tricky performance aesthetic with some clever holograms or something to shock and awe audiences into voting for them.

in my dreams, only if they were Russia would they have the funds for that

But like, a song that has that sort of uniqueness about it would be a call for a Conchita. Not necessarily Croatia if only because anecdotally here it seems to be only me who likes it. As there are no obvious ones like that, I'm going to stick to a Bulgaria for my real prediction for now but I'm going to reserve the right to change as new information becomes available. I'm going to watch France, Portugal, Belarus (a potential Common Linnets thing if they manage to overcome the language barrier, that seems to be becoming a common problem which if it isn't an obstacle could be the way the contest moves back from English domination), Latvia, Iceland, Cyprus, Macedonia amongst others to potentially come out of nowhere but those are all shots in the dark really and are mostly from countries with shaky records. Which is another thing about how this year is hard to call, can these countries overcome their poor records for success this time?

Posted by: ScottyEm 21st March 2017, 09:46 PM

This is the joys of overthinking eh? I've blocked 2014 results from my memory. I get Italy as the winner for now, but we have a small handful of songs that could be propelled by captivating staging. My heart wants Belgium to clinch this as it would be so deserved, not least as they haven't won since 1986!

Posted by: Casahovah 21st March 2017, 09:53 PM

I reckon Belgium are in with a shot if they really want to push for it. "All alone in the danger zone" is a pretty strong hook with scope to make it work on an affective level and it's the kind of thing they can stage really atmospherically (hoping for something suitably "manic pixie dream girl caught in the city lights" on that front) and given it's mostly the same people that staged Rhythm Inside I'm reasonably confident that they know what they're doing.

Posted by: ScottyEm 21st March 2017, 10:11 PM

I've only listened to the Italian entry, say, twice and I've now just listened to the 3 minute edit which sounds terrible. Not great given I'm not fluent even with the original mix. Doubt this will make much difference however

Posted by: gooddelta 21st March 2017, 10:18 PM

Maybe they'll perform a different edit on the night.

A bit like when Cascada decided to slice their verse in half to fit in more of the drop after people complained about it being cut (as opposed to the official ESC studio version which had less drop and more verse).

Fat lot of good it did for them mind Mind you, Natalie was not on form vocally that evening so perhaps it was a relief to hear less of her singing.

Posted by: J▲hq 21st March 2017, 10:49 PM

I think the edit would sound a lot better / less obvious just by removing the 'a-ha ha' bit from where it's cut

Posted by: AdamAloud 25th March 2017, 04:45 PM

Semi 1
01. Sweden
02. Australia
03. Belgium
04. Latvia
05. Greece
06. Moldova
07. Azerbaijan
08. Iceland
09. Poland
10. Albania
11. Montenegro
12. Georgia
13. Finland
14. Armenia
15. Portugal
16. Cyprus
17. Czech Republic
18. Slovenia

Semi 2
01. The Netherlands
02. Estonia
03. Macedonia
04. Bulgaria
05. Belarus
06. Israel
07. Romania
08. Serbia
09. Denmark
10. Hungary
11. Switzerland
12. Croatia
13. Norway
14. Austria
15. Russia
16. San Marino
17. Ireland
18. Lithuania
19. Malta

idk though. It's REALLY hard to call this year, going to all come down to staging.

Posted by: Casahovah 25th March 2017, 05:42 PM

That's quite the vote of confidence in The Netherlands, care to expand?

Posted by: AdamAloud 25th March 2017, 05:53 PM

Nobody was really jumping out at me as a winner of semi 2 to be honest! I could see The Netherlands being a bit of a dark horse in the sense that it's a great song first of all. Secondly I'm sure their live vocal is going to be amazing so that's a big jury pull. Also I think the live version could elevate it in the way 'Sound Of Silence' was, cause I always felt that to be a bit lacking in the studio version. Ultimately like I said it's going to come down to the staging, but we know the Dutch CAN pull it off, so until the 3rd May when it all goes tits up they are my pick.

Posted by: Liаm 25th March 2017, 06:00 PM

Yeah with listening to Netherlands more it's growing a bit but also seeming like a bit of a dark horse. I don't think winner or semi winner but I keep saying something is going to knock it out the park live and I think it seems like one of the biggest possibilities for that after racking my brains. With the right simple staging the harmonies and vocals could really be onto something.

Posted by: NicM82 31st March 2017, 12:02 AM

Hello everybody - newbie. You live in hope that Switzerland makes it - I live in hope that Portugal somehow cracks the Top 5 like one time ever. Would be beyond cool!

For the record, I like the quirky songs and I wish there were more songs in languages other than English. You can do really interesting bilingual things and had Bosnia and H dropped the rap they'd have had a good solid entry with Zero English in it (I kinda liked it in a guilty pleasure kind of way). I am still furious with Albania for destroying their song. I literally did a dance around my living room when Czech Republic finally got through last year.

As for underdogs, unfortunately, as delighted as I am to see Queen Valentina back amongst her subjects, I don't see her making it through. I admire San Marino's pluck for trying though - it would be fascinating to see what they'd do if they actually won, can you imagine it? I enjoy most things they send, usually for its car crash qualities I concede, but I was impressed that they managed to come up with a staging that made 'I Didn't Know' surprisingly entertaining.

I'm disappointed by Slovenia - I did not have hate for ManuElla, it was fine for what it was, adequately entertaining cheese staged insanely. This time I'm underwhelmed because I enjoyed Omar Naber back in 2005 and was expecting more from him this turn around. Perhaps he's fallen to the curse of diminishing returns? I was wondering about those people who have equalled or improved upon a past performance, these are the names I can get so far (Udo Jürgens, Johnny Logan, Vicki Leandros, Elisabeth Andreassen, Carola, Wind, Poli Genova, Valentina Monetta, Danny Montell and Cheryl Baker from Buzz's Fizz; anybody get anymore?) Out of 62 Contests (counting this one) and you've only maybe got no more than twenty people tops whose ranking stayed solid or improved between appearance. The odds are not in his favour I shouldn't think.

Alas, as much as I like that Czech Republic are trying things and throwing interesting people at it - and there's usually nothing more unusual than a jazz singer at Eurovision, I agree with those who think they might well be in trouble. Albania, Finland, Georgia, Portugal and UK all have ballads/slower numbers, anything that's unusual or upbeat is going to be in with a shot in Semi 1. But it Czech Republic are to stand a real chance, they are going to have to make big strides in their staging, particularly as we know that this although Ukraine at ABSOLUTELY NOT going to win, they will inevitably stage the hell out of what is probably going to be another Marmite entry from them (I was a '1944' early adopter, so to speak, largely because I knew something of the history so I had the context and because I tend to like quirky entries but I am not a fan of this one. It might improve for me, but I don't think it will.)

I too am intrigued by Belgium - contemporary without being hideously EDM, quite cool. Interesting, if they can bring some awesome staging, we have ourselves a proper dark horse here. I also love the happiness of NAVIband and appreciate that they will be singing in Belarussian - hurrah!

Semi 2 suddenly got much more open now Russia are gone baring some kind of miracle. It's a terrific shame really, but given the state of relations between those two countries I am not in the least surprised, the whys and where-fors are unfortunately irrelevant, the two countries are in such a weird place vis a vis each other rationality has nothing to do with it. The consequence of course opens up a spot for one of the entries in the 'Maybe' pile to sneak through and its not Ovidiu levels of unlucky, I am given to understand that Channel One have pre-selected Yuliya Samoylova for 2018 if she's DQ-ed this time, so we shall see her rock the stage and being totally awesome next year and she'll no doubt have a lot of support behind her. It'd be fascinating to see how they manage to present the song, whatever it is, especially when compared to Poland in 2015. I will file it under 'something to look forward to' and 'you go girl' when it comes.

And anybody else loving the transition from O'G3NE to 'Yodel It'? That's gonna be delightfully random. Can't hardly wait!

Posted by: jafetsigfinns 31st March 2017, 11:15 AM

Ok, gonna have a crack at my predictions now..

Semi Final 1 :: May 09, 2017
01 Sweden ∙ Robin Bengtsson — I Can't Go On
02 Belgium ∙ Blanche — City Lights
03 Azerbaijan ∙ DiHaj — Skeletons
04 Greece ∙ Demy — This Is Love
05 Australia ∙ Isaiah — Don't Come Easy
06 Poland ∙ Kasia Mos — Flashlight
07 Armenia ∙ Artsvik — Fly With Me
08 Iceland ∙ Svala — Paper
09 Latvia ∙ Triana Park — Line
10 Montenegro ∙ Slavko Kalezic — Space
11 Moldova ∙ SunStroke Project — Hey, Mamma!
12 Portugal ∙ Salvador Sobral — Amar Pelos Dois
13 Cyprus ∙ Hovig — Gravity
14 Czech Republic ∙ Martina Bárta — My Turn
15 Finland ∙ Norma John — Blackbird
16 Albania ∙ Lindita — World
17 Georgia ∙ Tamara Gachechiladze — Keep the Faith
18 Slovenia ∙ Omar Naber — On My Way

Honestly I feel like this semi is infinitely tougher than the second one and this could go so many ways really. I tried to look at it based on jury votes, televotes, running order and neighboring countries voting etc and I think this could be the result.

- I feel like Sweden, Belgium and Azerbaijan are the only ones I'm 100% confident will make it through in this semi. Strong entries bound to do well both in the semi and final.
- Greece and Australia are like 90% likely to qualify. I feel like the hate Isaiah is getting won't be reflected by the public because he's a young boy and the song really is beautiful. It won't do as well as the last two years though.
- Poland will do well on the televotes again and in my opinion is the "boring ballad" (imo) out of Poland/Portugal/Finland that is most likely to do well mostly thanks to a huge number of Polish immigrants all over Europe.
- Armenia will do well if the show will be a spectacle as I suspect it will be (based on the video).
- Iceland, Montenegro and Latvia are total wildcards. They could really place anywhere from 8th to 18th in my opinion. Iceland should hopefully get good scores from the juries (she's great live) and somewhat good scores from the televote. Montenegro will possibly get a big number of votes from the televotes but I could easily swap this one with Moldova as the televote hog. Latvia will greatly benefit from its closing slot and that could be just what it needs to close given that she performs well.
- I think Portugal and Finland will flop. This is mostly based on the fact that I feel both of these songs have been greatly hyped by euro fans and (in Salvador's case) by their home nations themselves. No really in most polls that I've seen where Portugal is high up it seems that a HUGE number of the voters are from portuguese voters. See http://www.escstats.com/ for example where Portugal is 4th, and the nation with the most voters on that chart is.. Portugal with 142 voters. They have almost 50 more voters than the second highest nation. I really just don't see the televoters eating this up and even have a hard time seeing the juries place them above a lot of the other songs so I think they'll place midfield at best.
- Slovenia and Georgia are really the only two countries I think are destined to be non-qualifiers this year.

Will do Semi 2 later.

Posted by: NicM82 2nd April 2017, 10:43 PM

Semi 1 is full of female full-on ballads (Albania, Georgia, Finland, Poland plus AQ UK) and Semi 2 full of male pop-ballads (Austria, Bulgaria, Ireland, Israel) right? We could start by dropping the song from that list we don't like the most and assume they will cancel each other out in the voting.

Just for fun, I thought I might consider matters based purely on geographical voting. It turns out that a random draw just shows up the regional voting patterns as much as a deliberately computer-generated draw would have. If this is largely driven by a lot of political voting, here's what might well happen -

Semi 1 -
a) Greece and Cyprus will vote for each other and could form a Med bloc with AQ Italy.
b) assume that the AQ UK, Cyprus and Greece will rain points on Australia and vice versa (UK, Cyprus, Oz = Commonwealth, lot of Greeks in Oz)
c) mini-Nordic bloc, Sweden, Finland and Iceland
d) Azerbaijan and Armenia might deliberately try to knock each other out - both are so out there it seems less likely that they will both survive
e) Central European bloc - Poland, Latvia, Czech Republic, Slovenia
f) AQ Spain will try to save Portugal
g) some Balkans points exchanged
h) Sweden, Australia, UK, possibly Finland, Iceland, possibly one Eurasian country will throw a bone to Belgium so long as she's good

Likely Qualifiers = Greece, Cyprus, Australia, Sweden plus one other Nordic, one Eurasian country likely Azerbaijan, probably Poland and Latvia, one Balkans state either Moldova or Montenegro, Belgium

Definitely out = Georgia, Albania, Slovenia

Might be out = Czech Republic, Armenia, Belgium if she stuffs it and there's a lot of Eastern bloc voting, either Finland or Iceland and Portugal

Semi 2 - (assuming absence of Russia)
a) five Balkan countries, assume around three are safe
b) mini-Nordic bloc Norway and Denmark
c) AQ France will likely support Switzerland
d) potential Mitteleuropa bloc AQ Germany, Netherlands, Austria, Hungary
e) AQ Ukraine teams up with Belarus and backs Estonia and Lithuania
f) Israel might find itself disadvantaged - no neighbours left unless it becomes a sixth Balkans state
g) one country that wasn't getting through now is
h) Ireland could struggle even more

Likely Qualifiers = Netherlands, Austria (one other Mittel-state possible), one ex-Soviet country probably Estonia (probably between them and Belarus), Switzerland, Serbia, FYR Macedonia, Bulgaria, probably both Norway and Denmark because its the easier Semi and they are usually solid

Might be out = Israel (no neighbours), Croatia, Hungary, Lithuania, Belarus (depending on performance)

Definitely out = San Marino

Bit disturbing that's that easy to whittle-down based just on where places are on the map, isn't it?

Posted by: Ryan. 4th April 2017, 10:21 PM

Going to make a few new predictions now we have a running order and have seen LEP:

Semi-Final One

Overall Prediction - Televote Prediction - Jury Prediction

01 02 01 Sweden: Robin Bengtsson - I Can't Go On
02 01 05 Portugal: Salvador Sobral - Amar Pelos Dois
03 04 02 Belgium: Blanche - City Lights
04 06 06 Armenia: Artsvik - Fly With Me
05 10 03 Australia: Isaiah - Don't Come Easy
06 03 13 Greece: Demy - This Is Love
07 09 07 Azerbaijan: Dihaj - Skeletons
08 05 15 Latvia: Triana Park - Line
09 17 04 Finland: Norma John - Blackbird
10 07 14 Moldova: Sunstroke Project - Hey Mamma
11 11 10 Albania: Lindita - World
12 08 16 Poland: Kasia Moś - Flashlight
13 13 11 Cyprus: Hovig - Gravity
14 16 09 Iceland: Svala - Paper
15 18 08 Czech Republic: Martina Bárta - My Turn
16 14 12 Georgia: Tamara Gachechiladze - Keep The Faith
17 12 17 Slovenia: Omar Naber - On My Way
18 15 18 Montenegro: Slavko Kalezić - Space

Semi-Final Two

Overall Prediction - Televote Prediction - Jury Prediction

01 01 01 Bulgaria: Kristian Kostov - Beautiful Mess
02 02 04 Israel: IMRI - I Feel Alive
03 09 02 Denmark: Anja - Where I Am
04 08 03 The Netherlands: OG3NE - Lights And Shadows
05 06 07 Belarus: Naviband - Story Of My Life
06 03 12 Romania: Ilinca ft. Alex Florea - Yodel It!
07 04 11 Estonia: Koit Toome and Laura - Verona
08 10 05 Serbia: Tijana Bogićević - In Too Deep
09 14 06 Switzerland: Timebelle - Apollo
10 07 13 Austria: Nathan Trent - Running On Air
11 13 08 F.Y.R. Macedonia: Jana Burčeska - Dance Alone
12 05 17 Russia: Julia Samoylova - Flame Is Burning
13 15 09 Norway: JOWST - Grab The Moment
14 11 15 Hungary: Joci Pápai - Origo
15 18 10 Malta: Claudia Faniello - Breathlessly
16 16 14 Ireland: Brendan Murray - Dying To Try
17 12 19 Lithuania: Fusedmarc - Rain Of Revolution
18 17 16 Croatia: Jacques Houdek - My Friend
19 19 18 San Marino: Valentina Monetta & Jimmie Wilson - Spirit Of The Night

Much more difficult without a running order but here we go...

Final

Overall Prediction - Televote Prediction - Jury Prediction

01 01 01 Italy: Francesco Gabbani - Occidentali's Karma
02 02 02 Bulgaria: Kristian Kostov - Beautiful Mess
03 03 07 Sweden: Robin Bengtsson - I Can't Go On
04 07 03 Belgium: Blanche - City Lights
05 04 08 Portugal: Salvador Sobral - Amar Pelos Dois
06 13 04 Australia: Isaiah - Don't Come Easy
07 14 05 France: Alma - Requiem
08 08 13 Armenia: Artsvik - Fly With Me
09 16 06 Denmark: Anja - Where I Am
10 06 17 Greece: Demy - This Is Love
11 09 14 Belarus: Naviband - Story Of My Life
12 05 20 Romania: Ilinca ft. Alex Florea - Yodel It!
13 10 15 Serbia: Tijana Bogićević - In Too Deep
14 11 16 Israel: IMRI - I Feel Alive
15 18 11 The Netherlands: OG3NE - Lights And Shadows
16 17 12 Azerbaijan: Dihaj - Skeletons
17 12 18 Estonia: Koit Toome and Laura - Verona
18 24 09 Finland: Norma John - Blackbird
19 23 10 United Kingdom: Lucie Jones - Never Give Up On You
20 15 22 Ukraine: O.Torvald - Time
21 19 24 Moldova: Sunstroke Project - Hey Mamma
22 20 23 Austria: Nathan Trent - Running On Air
23 22 21 Spain: Manel Navarro - Do It For Your Lover
24 25 19 Switzerland: Timebelle - Apollo
25 21 25 Latvia: Triana Park - Line
26 26 26 Germany: Levina - Perfect Life

Posted by: LexC♀ 4th April 2017, 10:27 PM

If Portugal didn't even win its own televote then I don't think it's going to win the televote in the semi-final!

Posted by: Ryan. 4th April 2017, 10:35 PM

I think the fact it is so different to the rest of a Eurovision line-up is going to make it a lot of people's favourites, even if a lot of people will hate it. It doesn't stand out so much in the context of a Portuguese semi where so many things are of a similar genre, but in a Eurovision semi with everyone have fireworks here and holograms there I think it might just hit the sweet spot.

Posted by: Umi 5th April 2017, 02:25 PM

I wouldn't mind that prediction being accurate one bit.

Posted by: jafetsigfinns 5th April 2017, 03:40 PM

Let's try this again. Here's how I think it might go.

[ Pos. | Jury | Telev. | Country | Artist | Song ]

Semi Final 1
01 03 01 Sweden ∙ Robin Bengtsson — I Can't Go On
02 01 03 Belgium ∙ Blanche — City Lights
03 02 04 Azerbaijan ∙ Dihaj — Skeletons
04 05 07 Australia ∙ Isaiah — Don't Come Easy
05 06 08 Latvia ∙ Triana Park — Line
06 18 02 Moldova ∙ SunStroke Project — Hey, Mamma!
07 10 06 Poland ∙ Kasia Moś — Flashlight
08 08 11 Iceland ∙ Svala — Paper
09 04 13 Portugal ∙ Salvador Sobral — Amar Pelos Dois
10 14 05 Greece ∙ Demy — This Is Love
11 11 09 Armenia ∙ Artsvik — Fly with Me
12 07 16 Finland ∙ Norma John — Blackbird
13 09 15 Czech Republic ∙ Martina Bárta — My Turn
14 12 12 Cyprus ∙ Hovig — Gravity
15 16 10 Montenegro ∙ Slavko Kalezić — Space
16 13 14 Albania ∙ Lindita — World
17 15 17 Georgia ∙ Tamara Gachechiladze — Keep the Faith
18 17 18 Slovenia ∙ Omar Naber — On My Way

Semi Final 2
01 01 01 Bulgaria ∙ Kristian Kostov — Beautiful Mess
02 02 02 Hungary ∙ Joci Pápai — Origo
03 03 05 Macedonia ∙ Jana Burčeska — Dance Alone
04 04 07 Denmark ∙ Anja Nissen — Where I Am
05 10 04 Israel ∙ Imri — I Feel Alive
06 14 03 Russia ∙ Yulia Samoylova — Flame Is Burning
07 06 09 Estonia ∙ Koit Toome and Laura — Verona
08 05 12 Netherlands ∙ O'G3NE — Lights and Shadows
09 08 10 Switzerland ∙ Timebelle — Apollo
10 11 08 Norway ∙ JOWST feat. Aleksander Walmann — Grab the Moment
11 16 06 Romania ∙ Ilinca and Alex Florea — Yodel It!
12 09 11 Serbia ∙ Tijana Bogićević — In Too Deep
13 07 15 Belarus ∙ NAVI — Story of My Life
14 13 14 Ireland ∙ Brendan Murray — Dying to Try
15 15 13 Austria ∙ Nathan Trent — Running on Air
16 12 16 Croatia ∙ Jacques Houdek — My Friend
17 17 18 Lithuania ∙ Fusedmarc — Rain of Revolution
18 18 17 Malta ∙ Claudia Faniello — Breathlessly
19 19 19 San Marino ∙ Valentina Monetta and Jimmie Wilson — Spirit of the Night

Posted by: eurovision4ever 5th April 2017, 04:03 PM

There's no way Lithuania will be 18th in televote, as much as they should be

Posted by: LexC♀ 11th April 2017, 12:59 AM

Lex's overthought Semi 1 predictions. Points in brackets are public first, jury second.

01 Belgium 326 (156+170)

An effective, catchy, striking pop song that's got the potential to work on an affective level and is being staged by people who know what they're doing. People have raised concerns about Blanche's "shyness" being an issue but that's less of an obstacle to overcome on screen rather than in a club/theater environment. If they can make her look like a vulnerable manic pixie dream girl caught in the city lights then this will fly up both televote and jury scores.

02 Sweden 263 (137+126)

Again, an effective pop song that does what it does very well and has proven to be able to score well from the opening slot. I'd put this as a safer qualifier than Belgium actually because Belgium could, in theory, f*** it up and not do as well whereas this is already basically ready to go and has been since February. If that does happen then I'd expect to see them take the win in stead.

03 Armenia 208 (131+77)

Has a lot of friends in this semi and, like with Bulgaria, I've really grown to appreciate how much this does actually manage to build to a climax while still staying pretty subtle. Plus they're in the ideal draw position of two from the end and with a good qualification record.

04 Latvia 189 (112+67)

Pimp slot and what should be killer staging. They don't have as many/any "friends" in the truest sense but this is the type of thing that the Nordics are going to eat up with a spoon plus they'll probably get lower points from a lot of the countries to (or at least so goes the model I made to coincide with this prediction *.*). Juries won't love it as much but that's mostly because they'll have bigger priorities elsewhere.

05 Australia 169 (55+114)

That draw is tough, only an idiot would deny that. That said though, Isaiah is a capable enough performer, the song is good and well structured enough to get Australia enough votes to qualify reasonably comfortably. It's still going to be mostly carried by the juries though, they could potentially be outside of the top 10 on the televote.

06 Greece 141 (93+48)

Greece always have a comparative advantage and I don't think this year is going to be any different. For all that it's basic and simplistic, coming after a run of Finland-Azerbaijan-Portugal will be making people itchy for a good and proper uptempo pop song which this will deliver for them. Juries will recognize its limitations but they are just as likely to be swayed in that way too so they won't loathe it as much as not be phased by it.

07 Moldova 130 (90+40)

Like Greece but on a slightly smaller scale. This is almost exactly what your viewer tuning in to the semi finals because they want to watch Eurovision will be looking for and will flock to in a big way.

08 Iceland 130 (50+80)

(I swear I didn't make that tiebreak on purpose)
You don't break a domestic televoting record without a song that is provably able to score well on a televote. I know people will say it was because she's a name but big names have tried in Iceland before and been thwarted/not lived up to the hype, especially with somebody whose biggest hits were reasonably long ago. That said this will get more love from the same juries that really got behind Love Injected (because it's essentially just Love Injected via some 80s synth) will be backing this as well.

09 Albania 116 (48+68)

My tip for the "surprise" qualifier (even to me, as I did not think this would be as high as it ended up in the aforementioned model). There's a decent amount of neighbourly support here from Greece, Cyprus, Montenegro, Slovenia, Italy and the caucus states to a lesser extent. Plus nothing says "jury catnip" like those vocals which will be able to make up for any potential lack in the televote from a not so great draw.

10 Montenegro 106 (72+34)

I think this, like Greece later on in the show, or like Zoe or Nadav Guedj or Bojana Stamenov is the type of thing that your Eurovision Tuesday night viewer will be wanting to be entertained with. They've hired a stage director who knows how to present a song in a suitably dramatic way and it'll get a good amount of support from the likes of Australia and the west who will be impressed by the camp nature of the whole thing. Juries won't take to it but Montenegro always get more than they deserve from the jury scores thanks to *cough* shenanigans *cough* for which there's Albania, Czechia, Armenia and Azerbaijan here to back them up to the point where they will sneak through.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

11 Poland 105 (45+60)

Unlike the Polish songs that have soared up the televote, Kasia isn't really that big a star/had that big a hit in Poland domestically before they arrive so the televote that was really activated for Colour Of Your Life and My Slowanie won't be as strong here (in what's not really a brilliant semi for them anyway). The juries will go for it but Albania will be more appealing to them in the "dramatic ballad" stakes I feel.

12 Portugal 104 (41+63)

The thing is with Portugal is that it is both not that different from what's around it in the semi and hugely polarizing at the same time. The general reaction to this song has been a "love it or hate it" reaction and since juries are, in essence, just people watching a music competition, I think it stands to reason that the jury results will be quite polarized for this one. And under the jury ranking that really dulls your jury score down (although not as drastically in a semi where there's less songs so we're talking a slightly smaller scale here). Plus, in the Portuguese final that for all that it was a crock of shit, was at least different flavours of shit (you had your western pop song, your bouncy folksy number, your campy soul pop, your soft rock number ect) and with a big amount of momentum from the youtube views ect, it still only managed to come second on its televote. The transitive property remains therefore that Portugal weren't all that fussed about it. Draw wise it's between what we imagine will be the big stage production of Azerbaijan and what we know will be the big bombastic production of Greece which will lead to it being "memory holed" once the whole semi is done. And while I hear the "it'll stand out for being so different" argument, I think that supposes that this is more left field than it actually is. It is just a calm, male ballad that's got some 50s/60s style orchestral flourishes on it. Hardly an art installation is it? Plus add in the fact that Portugal isn't a country that can count on votes from anywhere other than Spain and maybe Italy at a push in this semi and that people might/will just think he's a bit wierd and my overall conclusion is that this will be another admirable misfire.

13 Finland 101 (33+68)

Basically like Portugal only a bit more gloomy and frumpy.

14 Slovenia 84 (38+46)

Will do better than expected, especially with quite a good draw but we're talking 14th at an absolute maximum here.

15 Azerbaijan 82 (42+40)

Not many people have pegged this but with most of the ex-USSR countries, Malta and San Marino in the other semi they really have only got Georgia and Moldova in this semi to support them. And, based on the Amsterdam performance, Dihaj is a weak performer both vocally and seemingly on the stage presence front which at least Samra was able to manage to overcome. I've got this down as the "accidental" non qualifier at the moment.

16 Czech Republic 73 (20+53)

Actually being a competently composed and performed song will stop it coming last through decent jury support but there's too much of a televote handicap to leapfrog over the likes of even Finland and Portugal

17 Georgia 61 (28+33)

It's USP is being eaten up by other songs, it's got a horrible draw and it's extremely thin on friends. Unfortunately sinking without trace, but won't be coming last

18 Cyprus 58 (27+31)

Will get completely swallowed up and memory holed by Armenia and Latvia at the end of the show and unfortunately just isn't enough of a memorable song to stand out in this bloodbath of a semi.

Posted by: jafetsigfinns 11th April 2017, 12:45 PM

Now for the final

[ Pos. | Jury | Telev. | Country | Artist | Song ]

Eurovision Final
01 01 02 Bulgaria ∙ Kristian Kostov — Beautiful Mess (287 + 312 = 599)
02 05 01 Italy ∙ Francesco Gabbani — Occidentali's Karma (164+ 376 = 540)
03 02 05 Hungary ∙ Joci Pápai — Origo (257 + 159 = 416)
04 04 03 Sweden ∙ Robin Bengtsson — I Can't Go On (182 + 231 = 413)
05 03 04 Belgium ∙ Blanche — City Lights (192 + 170 = 362)
06 07 06 Azerbaijan ∙ Dihaj — Skeletons (130 + 129 = 259)
07 06 09 Macedonia ∙ Jana Burčeska — Dance Alone (149 + 107 = 256)
08 08 13 France ∙ Alma — Requiem (125 + 73 = 198)
09 09 12 Australia ∙ Isaiah — Don't Come Easy (112 + 83 = 195)
10 13 10 Poland ∙ Kasia Moś — Flashlight (87 + 94 = 181)
11 18 07 Israel ∙ Imri — I Feel Alive (50 + 124 = 174)
12 11 15 Latvia ∙ Triana Park — Line (96 + 63 = 159)
13 10 16 Denmark ∙ Anja Nissen — Where I Am (102 + 56 = 158)
14 24 08 Russia ∙ Yulia Samoylova — Flame Is Burning (11 + 110 = 121)
15 22 11 Greece ∙ Demy — This Is Love (31 + 90 = 121)
16 14 19 Estonia ∙ Koit Toome and Laura — Verona (77 + 43 = 120)
17 15 20 Iceland ∙ Svala — Paper (75 + 34 = 109)
18 12 24 Portugal ∙ Salvador Sobral — Amar Pelos Dois (93 + 13 = 106)
19 20 17 Norway ∙ JOWST feat. Aleksander Walmann — Grab the Moment (42 + 49 = 91)
20 16 22 United Kingdom ∙ Lucie Jones — Never Give Up On You (67 + 21 = 88)
21 21 18 Ukraine ∙ O.Torvald — Time (33 + 44 = 77)
22 17 23 Netherlands ∙ O'G3NE — Lights and Shadows (57 + 15 = 72)
23 19 21 Switzerland ∙ Timebelle — Apollo (45 + 26 = 71)
24 26 14 Moldova ∙ SunStroke Project — Hey, Mamma! (3 + 66 = 69)
25 23 25 Germany ∙ Levina — Perfect Life (22 + 6 = 28)
26 25 26 Spain ∙ Manuel Navarro — Do It For Your Lover (5 + 0 = 5)

Posted by: ascensionmusic 25th April 2017, 07:32 PM

Hey guys, I'm from America (the USA) and actually know about Eurovision! Not many of us do.
I made two videos for Eurovision so far on Semi-Final 1. I will be making a lot more videos on my channel soon

Hope you check them out, and please let me know what your personal ranking and prediction is!

I'm too new of a member to post links, but you can find my videos if you search on YouTube or Facebook for "Ascension Music Eurovision".

Thanks and have a great day!

Posted by: Jerick 26th April 2017, 03:38 PM

Pre-rehearshal weeks prediction

Semi 1

01 Sweden
02 Georgia
03 Australia
04 Albania
05 Belgium
06 Montenegro
07 Finland
08 Azerbaijan
09 Portugal
10 Greece
11 Poland
12 Moldova
13 Iceland
14 Czech Republic
15 Cyprus
16 Armenia
17 Slovenia
18 Latvia

Semi 2

01 Serbia
02 Austria
03 FYR Macedonia
04 Malta
05 Romania
06 The Netherlands
07 Hungary
08 Denmark
09 Ireland
10 San Marino
11 Croatia
12 Norway
13 Switzerland
14 Belarus
15 Bulgaria
16 Lithuania
17 Estonia
18 Israel

Bold = qualifiers

Posted by: Ryan. 27th April 2017, 01:57 AM

Final pre-rehearsal predictions:

SEMI-FINAL ONE

Overall Prediction - Televote Prediction - Jury Prediction

Certain Qualifiers
01 01 01 Sweden: Robin Bengtsson - I Can't Go On
02 02 04 Portugal: Salvador Sobral - Amar Pelos Dois
03 06 02 Belgium: Blanche - City Lights
04 04 06 Armenia: Artsvik - Fly With Me

Likely Qualifiers
05 12 03 Australia: Isaiah - Don't Come Easy
06 10 07 Azerbaijan: Dihaj - Skeletons
07 03 15 Greece: Demy - This Is Love

Borderline Qualifiers
08 05 14 Moldova: Sunstroke Project - Hey Mamma
09 11 08 Albania: Lindita - World
10 17 05 Finland: Norma John - Blackbird
11 09 13 Latvia: Triana Park - Line
12 07 16 Poland: Kasia Moś - Flashlight
13 13 10 Cyprus: Hovig - Gravity

Unlikely Qualifiers
14 16 09 Iceland: Svala - Paper
15 08 18 Montenegro: Slavko Kalezić - Space
16 14 12 Georgia: Tamara Gachechiladze - Keep The Faith

Certain Non-Qualifiers
17 18 11 Czech Republic: Martina Bárta - My Turn
18 15 17 Slovenia: Omar Naber - On My Way

SEMI-FINAL TWO

Overall Prediction - Televote Prediction - Jury Prediction

Certain Qualifiers
01 01 01 Bulgaria: Kristian Kostov - Beautiful Mess
02 04 06 Israel: IMRI - I Feel Alive
03 03 09 Estonia: Koit Toome and Laura - Verona

Likely Qualifiers
04 11 02 Denmark: Anja - Where I Am
05 08 05 Serbia: Tijana Bogićević - In Too Deep
06 12 03 The Netherlands: OG3NE - Lights And Shadows
07 02 15 Romania: Ilinca ft. Alex Florea - Yodel It!

Borderline Qualifiers
08 13 04 Norway: JOWST - Grab The Moment
09 06 12 Belarus: Naviband - Story Of My Life
10 07 11 Austria: Nathan Trent - Running On Air
11 05 14 Hungary: Joci Pápai - Origo
12 14 07 Switzerland: Timebelle - Apollo
13 09 13 F.Y.R. Macedonia: Jana Burčeska - Dance Alone

Unlikely Qualifiers
14 16 08 Ireland: Brendan Murray - Dying To Try
15 10 16 Croatia: Jacques Houdek - My Friend
16 18 10 Malta: Claudia Faniello - Breathlessly

Certain Non-Qualifiers
17 15 18 Lithuania: Fusedmarc - Rain Of Revolution
18 17 17 San Marino: Valentina Monetta & Jimmie Wilson - Spirit Of The Night

I can't wait for rehearsals to hopefully make things clearer, there's so much up in the air!

Posted by: Iz~ 27th April 2017, 12:15 PM

01 Greece
02 Sweden
03 Armenia
04 Belgium
05 Moldova
06 Latvia
07 Finland
08 Australia
09 Iceland
10 Albania
--
11 Azerbaijan
12 Slovenia
13 Portugal
14 Cyprus
15 Poland
16 Montenegro
17 Georgia
18 Czech Republic

01 Bulgaria
02 Romania
03 Israel
04 Belarus
05 Estonia
06 The Netherlands
07 Denmark
08 Serbia
09 Switzerland
10 Macedonia
---
11 Croatia
12 Hungary
13 Norway
14 Lithuania
15 Austria
16 Ireland
17 San Marino
18 Malta

Seeing as I haven't done any pre-rehearsal full predictions, here's my takes that I've been working on. Main point of interest that I haven't seen put forward yet is that Slovenia will do better than expected and I wouldn't even rule them out given they're the closest semi 1 has to a big dramatic finisher. I'm with Lex on Portugal too.

Posted by: AdamAloud 27th April 2017, 02:07 PM

IN
01 Sweden
02 Latvia
03 Moldova
04 Greece
05 Australia
06 Finland
07 Belgium
08 Portugal
09 Azerbaijan
10 Albania

OUT
11 Poland
12 Montenegro
13 Armenia
14 Iceland
15 Cyprus
16 Georgia
17 Czech Republic
18 Slovenia

---

IN
01 Bulgaria
02 Romania
03 The Netherlands
04 Estonia
05 Israel
06 Macedonia
07 Belarus
08 Serbia
09 Hungary
10 Ireland

OUT
11 Austria
12 Switzerland
13 Norway
14 Croatia
15 Denmark
16 San Marino
17 Malta
18 Lithuania

Semi 1 felt easier to predict than Semi 2, going to be an exciting couple of weeks!

Posted by: Jerick 27th April 2017, 02:37 PM

Same thought here, that's why I have them as a qualifier in my pre-rehearshal prediction yesterday.

Posted by: LexC♀ 27th April 2017, 06:12 PM

My tentative pre-rehearsal predictions

Semi One

01 Sweden
02 Armenia
03 Belgium
04 Greece
05 Australia
06 Latvia
07 Azerbaijan
08 Moldova
09 Iceland
10 Albania

11 Poland
12 Portugal
13 Finland
14 Slovenia
15 Montenegro
16 Georgia
17 Czech Republic
18 Cyprus

Semi 2

01 Bulgaria
02 Netherlands
03 Romania
04 Israel
05 Denmark
06 Belarus
07 Estonia
08 Norway
09 Serbia
10 Austria

11 Macedonia
12 Croatia
13 Hungary
14 San Marino
15 Switzerland
16 Lithuania
17 Malta
18 Ireland

Posted by: Ryan. 27th April 2017, 06:25 PM

Albania suddenly getting in everyone's top 10s, you've started off a hype train Lex

Posted by: LexC♀ 27th April 2017, 06:52 PM

What can I say, I have that kind of power over people!

Posted by: ScottyEm 27th April 2017, 08:22 PM

Swap Austria with Ireland and I agree!

Posted by: Liаm 2nd May 2017, 12:37 AM

Gonna take a stab in the dark, I'm awful at predictiing Eurovision but we'll see how I do

Semi 1
01 Armenia: Artsvik - Fly With Me
02 Sweden: Robin Bengtsson - I Can't Go On
03 Greece: Demy - This Is Love
04 Finland: Finland - Norma John - Blackbird
05 Belgium: Blanche - City Lights
06 Azerbaijan: DiHaj - Skeletons
07 Latvia: Triana Park - Line
08 Australia: Isaiah - Don't Come Easy
09 Moldova: Sunstroke Project - Hey Mamma
10 Portugal: Salvador Sobral - Amar Pelos Dois

11 Poland: Kasia Mos - Flashlight
12 Albania: Lindita - World
13 Iceland: Svala - Paper
14 Cyprus - Hovig - Gravity
15 Montengro: Slavko Kalezic - Space
16 Czech Republic: Martina Barta - My Turn
17Georgia: Tamara Gachechiladze - Keep The Faith
18 Slovenia: Omar Naber - On My Way

Bit of a curveball with Armenia winning the semi, but not TOO far out of the realms of possibility that I'm being ridiculous I hope


Semi 2

01 Bulgaria: Kristian Kostov - Beautiful Mess
02 Netherlands: OG3NE - Lights And Shadows
03 Romania: Ilinca ft. Alex Florea - Yodel It
04 Denmark: Anja - Where I Am
05 Israel: IMRI - I Feel Alive
06 Estonia: Koit Toome & Laura - Verona
07 Macedonia: Jana Burčeska - Dance Alone
08 Belarus: Naviband - Story Of My Life
09 Serbia: Tijana Bogcevic - In Too Deep
10 Norway: JOWST - Grab The Moment

11 Switzerland: Timebelle - Apollo
12 Austria: Nathan Trent - Running On Air
13 Hungary: Joci Papai - Origo
14 Croatia: Jacques Houdek - My Friend
15 Malta: Clauda Faniello - Breathlessly
16 Ireland: Brendan Murray - Dying To Try
17 Lithuania: Fusedmarc - Rain Of Revolution
18 San Marino: Valentina Monetta & Jimmie Wilson - Spirit Of The Night

I am probably being optimistic in the cases of OG3NE and Anja, they both have that 90s sound but they're both fab and sure to be performed well so eh, I thought I'd think a bit outside the box as you can never take the obvious with Eurovision I hope I'm wrong about Apollo and Paper, the former has a better chance imo but it's in the more competitive semi so I'm just unsure it will quite make it

Posted by: Ryan. 9th May 2017, 01:46 AM

Final predictions:

SEMI-FINAL ONE

Overall Prediction - Televote Prediction - Jury Prediction

Certain Qualifiers
01 01 01 Sweden: Robin Bengtsson - I Can't Go On
02 02 05 Portugal: Salvador Sobral - Amar Pelos Dois
03 04 06 Armenia: Artsvik - Fly With Me

Likely Qualifiers
04 11 02 Belgium: Blanche - City Lights
05 06 08 Cyprus: Hovig - Gravity
06 07 07 Azerbaijan: Dihaj - Skeletons
07 03 13 Moldova: Sunstroke Project - Hey Mamma

Borderline Qualifiers
08 14 03 Australia: Isaiah - Don't Come Easy
09 15 04 Finland: Norma John - Blackbird
10 05 15 Greece: Demy - This Is Love
11 09 11 Latvia: Triana Park - Line

Unlikely Qualifiers
12 10 12 Albania: Lindita - World
13 12 10 Georgia: Tamara Gachechiladze - Keep The Faith
14 08 16 Poland: Kasia Moś - Flashlight
15 17 09 Iceland: Svala - Paper
16 13 17 Slovenia: Omar Naber - On My Way

Certain Non-Qualifiers
17 18 14 Czech Republic: Martina Bárta - My Turn
18 16 18 Montenegro: Slavko Kalezić - Space

Posted by: SevenSeize 9th May 2017, 10:49 AM

Some semi predictions ~

Semi 1
01 Sweden: Robin Bengtsson - I Can't Go On
02 Portugal: Salvador Sobral - Amar Pelos Dois
03 Armenia: Artsvik - Fly With Me
04 Finland: Norma John - Blackbird
05 Australia: Isaiah - Don't Come Easy
06 Cyprus: Hovig - Gravity
07 Azerbaijan: Dihaj - Skeletons
08 Moldova: Sunstroke Project - Hey Mamma
09 Belgium: Blanche - City Lights
10 Greece: Demy - This Is Love
-x-
11 Poland: Kasia Moś - Flashlight
12 Latvia: Triana Park - Line
13 Albania: Lindita - World
14 Iceland: Svala - Paper
15 Georgia: Tamara Gachechiladze - Keep The Faith
16 Czech Republic: Martina Bárta - My Turn
17 Montenegro: Slavko Kalezić - Space
18 Slovenia: Omar Naber - On My Way


Semi 2
01 Bulgaria: Kristian Kostov - Beautiful Mess
02 Romania: Ilinca ft. Alex Florea - Yodel It
03 Israel: IMRI - I Feel Alive
04 Estonia: Koit Toome & Laura - Verona
05 Belarus: Naviband - Story Of My Life
06 Netherlands: OG3NE - Lights And Shadows
07 Denmark: Anja - Where I Am
08 Hungary: Joci Papai - Origo
09 Austria: Nathan Trent - Running On Air
10 Serbia: Tijana Bogcevic - In Too Deep
-x-
11 Norway: JOWST - Grab The Moment
12 Switzerland: Timebelle - Apollo
13 Macedonia: Jana Burčeska - Dance Alone
14 Croatia: Jacques Houdek - My Friend
15 Malta: Clauda Faniello - Breathlessly
16 Lithuania: Fusedmarc - Rain Of Revolution
17 Ireland: Brendan Murray - Dying To Try
18 San Marino: Valentina Monetta & Jimmie Wilson - Spirit Of The Night

Posted by: Ryan. 11th May 2017, 01:00 AM

Final predictions:

SEMI-FINAL TWO

Overall Prediction - Televote Prediction - Jury Prediction

Certain Qualifiers
01 01 01 Bulgaria: Kristian Kostov - Beautiful Mess
02 03 07 Israel: IMRI - I Feel Alive
03 06 05 Estonia: Koit Toome and Laura - Verona

Likely Qualifiers
04 11 02 Denmark: Anja - Where I Am
05 04 10 Austria: Nathan Trent - Running On Air
06 05 09 Hungary: Joci Pápai - Origo

Borderline Qualifiers
07 12 03 The Netherlands: OG3NE - Lights And Shadows
08 08 08 Serbia: Tijana Bogićević - In Too Deep
09 02 16 Romania: Ilinca ft. Alex Florea - Yodel It!
10 07 11 Belarus: Naviband - Story Of My Life
11 17 04 Norway: JOWST - Grab The Moment
12 09 12 F.Y.R. Macedonia: Jana Burčeska - Dance Alone

Unlikely Qualifiers
13 18 06 Malta: Claudia Faniello - Breathlessly
14 10 17 Croatia: Jacques Houdek - My Friend
15 13 14 Switzerland: Timebelle - Apollo

Certain Non-Qualifiers
16 15 13 San Marino: Valentina Monetta & Jimmie Wilson - Spirit Of The Night
17 16 15 Ireland: Brendan Murray - Dying To Try
18 14 18 Lithuania: Fusedmarc - Rain Of Revolution

Haven't seen a full run through unlike with semi one so I'm going off reports for Switzerland here. I've seen some of Austria's jury performance too which sounded quite off key for the money note but seems to have gone under the radar so I'm presuming it wasn't a big deal in the context of the whole performance, nevertheless I've marked his jury score lower than I would've done.

Posted by: Ryan. 11th May 2017, 01:04 AM

That's another 6/4 split I've gone for, just as I did in semi 1 which meant I only got 9/10! But I'll stick with it now I've posted it, surely one day it'll happen?

Posted by: Ryan. 12th May 2017, 08:37 PM

Final predictions:

GRAND FINAL

Overall Prediction - Televote Prediction - Jury Prediction

01 02 02 Bulgaria: Kristian Kostov - Beautiful Mess
02 01 03 Italy: Francesco Gabbani - Occidentali's Karma
03 03 01 Portugal: Salvador Sobral - Amar Pelos Dois
04 04 04 Belgium: Blanche - City Lights
05 06 05 Sweden: Robin Bengtsson - I Can't Go On
06 07 06 Armenia: Artsvik - Fly With Me
07 09 09 Hungary: Joci Pápai - Origo
08 14 07 France: Alma - Requiem
09 05 21 Romania: Ilinca ft. Alex Florea - Yodel It!
10 12 15 Moldova: Sunstroke Project - Hey Mamma
11 17 11 Azerbaijan: Dihaj - Skeletons
12 19 10 Denmark: Anja - Where I Am
13 15 14 Belarus: Naviband - Story Of My Life
14 22 08 United Kingdom: Lucie Jones - Never Give Up On You
15 08 23 Croatia: Jacques Houdek - My Friend
16 13 18 Ukraine: O.Torvald - Time
17 10 22 Poland: Kasia Moś - Flashlight
18 21 12 The Netherlands: OG3NE - Lights And Shadows
19 18 16 Austria: Nathan Trent - Running On Air
20 11 24 Greece: Demy - This Is Love
21 16 19 Israel: IMRI - I Feel Alive
22 23 13 Australia: Isaiah - Don't Come Easy
23 20 20 Cyprus: Hovig - Gravity
24 24 17 Norway: JOWST - Grab The Moment
25 25 25 Germany: Levina - Perfect Life
26 26 26 Spain: Manel Navarro - Do It For Your Lover

Posted by: Jason 13th May 2017, 01:45 AM

My final predictions:

1 Portugal: Salvador Sobral - Amar Pelos Dois
2 Bulgaria: Kristian Kostov - Beautiful Mess
3 Italy: Francesco Gabbani - Occidentali's Karma
4 Belgium: Blanche - City Lights
5 Armenia: Artsvik - Fly With Me
6 Sweden: Robin Bengtsson - I Can't Go On
7 Moldova: Sunstroke Project - Hey Mamma
8 Hungary: Joci Pápai - Origo
9 Poland: Kasia Moś - Flashlight
10 Romania: Ilinca ft. Alex Florea - Yodel It!
11 Azerbaijan: Dihaj - Skeletons
12 Greece: Demy - This Is Love
13 Israel: IMRI - I Feel Alive
14 Australia: Isaiah - Don't Come Easy
15 The Netherlands: OG3NE - Lights And Shadows
16 Croatia: Jacques Houdek - My Friend
17 Denmark: Anja - Where I Am
18 Belarus: Naviband - Story Of My Life
19 France: Alma - Requiem
20 Austria: Nathan Trent - Running On Air
21 Cyprus: Hovig - Gravity
22 Ukraine: O.Torvald - Time
23 Norway: JOWST - Grab The Moment
24 United Kingdom: Lucie Jones - Never Give Up On You
25 Germany: Levina - Perfect Life
26 Spain: Manel Navarro - Do It For Your Lover

Posted by: Liаm 13th May 2017, 04:40 AM

01 Bulgaria: Kristian Kostov - Beautiful Mess
02 Portugal: Salvador Sobral - Amar Pelos Dois
03 Italy: Francesco Gabbani - Occidentali's Karma
04 Belgium: Blanche - City Lights
05 Armenia: Artsvik - Fly With Me
06 Sweden: Robin Bengtsson - I Can't Go On
07 Romania: Ilinca ft. Alex Florea - Yodel It!
08 Croatia: Jacques Houdek - My Friend
09 Netherlands: OG3NE - Lights And Shadows
10 Hungary: Joci Papai - Origo

11 Azerbaijan: DiHaj - Skeletons
12 France: Alma - Requiem
13 Moldova: Sunstroke Project - Hey Mamma
14 United Kingdom: Lucie Jones - Never Give Up On You
15 Belarus: Naviband - Story Of My Life
16 Denmark: Anja - Where I Am
17 Israel: IMRI - I Feel Alive
18 Ukraine: O. Torvald - Time
19 Australia: Isaiah - Don't Come Easy
20 Poland: Kasia Mos - Flashlight
21 Greece: Demy - This Is Love
22 Norway: JOWST - Feel This Moment
23 Austria: Nathan Trent - Running On Air
24 Cyprus: Hovig - Gravity
25 Spain: Manel Navarro - Do It For Your Lover
26 Germany: Levina - Perfect Life

Being optimistic for Netherlands and Azerbaijan as my two faves I think, but it's hard to call so why not I feel the top and bottom few are quite easy to call (not the exact order as such, but what will be there), but between that could go almost any way

Posted by: J▲hq 13th May 2017, 10:52 AM

01 Bulgaria: Kristian Kostov - Beautiful Mess
02 Portugal: Salvador Sobral - Amar Pelos Dois
03 Belgium: Blanche - City Lights
04 Italy: Francesco Gabbani - Occidentali's Karma
05 Romania: Ilinca ft. Alex Florea - Yodel It!
06 United Kingdom: Lucie Jones - Never Give Up On You
07 Sweden: Robin Bengtsson - I Can't Go On
08 Netherlands: OG3NE - Lights And Shadows
09 Croatia: Jacques Houdek - My Friend
10 Israel: IMRI - I Feel Alive

11 Azerbaijan: DiHaj - Skeletons
12 Moldova: Sunstroke Project - Hey Mamma
13 Armenia: Artsvik - Fly With Me
14 Greece: Demy - This Is Love
15 Poland: Kasia Mos - Flashlight
16 Hungary: Joci Papai - Origo
17 Ukraine: O. Torvald - Time
18 France: Alma - Requiem
19 Belarus: Naviband - Story Of My Life
20 Austria: Nathan Trent - Running On Air

21 Cyprus: Hovig - Gravity
22 Denmark: Anja - Where I Am
23 Australia: Isaiah - Don't Come Easy
24 Norway: JOWST - Feel This Moment
25 Spain: Manel Navarro - Do It For Your Lover
26 Germany: Levina - Perfect Life

Posted by: SevenSeize 13th May 2017, 03:00 PM

01 Bulgaria: Kristian Kostov - Beautiful Mess
02 Italy: Francesco Gabbani - Occidentali's Karma
03 Sweden: Robin Bengtsson - I Can't Go On
04 Portugal: Salvador Sobral - Amar Pelos Dois
~
05 Romania: Ilinca ft. Alex Florea - Yodel It!
06 Belgium: Blanche - City Lights
07 United Kingdom: Lucie Jones - Never Give Up On You
08 Armenia: Artsvik - Fly With Me
~
09 Israel: IMRI - I Feel Alive
10 Australia: Isaiah - Don't Come Easy
11 Croatia: Jacques Houdek - My Friend
12 Netherlands: OG3NE - Lights And Shadows
13 Belarus: Naviband - Story Of My Life
14 Azerbaijan: Dihaj - Skeletons
15 Hungary: Joci Papai - Origo
16 Denmark: Anja - Where I Am
17 Cyprus: Hovig - Gravity
18 Ukraine: O. Torvald - Time
19 Moldova: Sunstroke Project - Hey Mamma
20 Norway: JOWST - Feel This Moment
21 Poland: Kasia Mos - Flashlight
22 Austria: Nathan Trent - Running On Air
23 France: Alma - Requiem
24 Greece: Demy - This Is Love
25 Spain: Manel Navarro - Do It For Your Lover
26 Germany: Levina - Perfect Life

Posted by: AdamAloud 13th May 2017, 03:16 PM

01 Bulgaria // Kristian Kostov - Beautiful Mess
02 Portugal // Salvador Sobral - Amar Pelos Dois
03 Italy // Francesco Gabbani - Occidentali's Karma
04 Belgium // Blanche - City Lights
05 Romania // Ilinca ft. Alex Florea - Yodel It!
06 The Netherlands // OG3NE - Lights & Shadows
07 Azerbaijan // Dihaj - Skeletons
08 Moldova // Sunstroke Project - Hey Mamma
09 France // Alma - Requiem
10 Sweden // Robin Bengtsson - I Can't Go On
11 Armenia // Artsvik - Fly With Me
12 Ukraine // O.Torvald - Time
13 United Kingdom // Lucie Jones - Never Give Up On You
14 Israel // IMRI - I Feel Alive
15 Hungary // Joci Papai - Origo
16 Croatia // Jacques Houdek - My Friend
17 Greece // Demy - This Is Love
18 Norway // JOWST - Grab The Moment
19 Austria // Nathan Trent - Running On Air
20 Poland // Kasia Mos - Flashlight
21 Australia // Isaiah - Don't Come Easy
22 Cyprus // Hovig - Gravity
23 Denmark // Anja - Where I Am
24 Spain // Manel Navarro - Do It For Your Lover
25 Belarus // Naviband - Story Of My Life
26 Germany // Levina - Perfect Life

Posted by: Iz~ 13th May 2017, 03:24 PM

01 Bulgaria: Kristian Kostov - Beautiful Mess
02 Italy: Francesco Gabbani - Occidentali's Karma
03 Romania: Ilinca ft. Alex Florea - Yodel It!
04 Portugal: Salvador Sobral - Amar Pelos Dois
05 Netherlands: OG3NE - Lights And Shadows
06 United Kingdom: Lucie Jones - Never Give Up On You
07 Belarus: Naviband - Story Of My Life
08 Israel: IMRI - I Feel Alive
09 Croatia: Jacques Houdek - My Friend
10 Belgium: Blanche - City Lights

11 Sweden: Robin Bengtsson - I Can't Go On
12 Armenia: Artsvik - Fly With Me
13 Moldova: Sunstroke Project - Hey Mamma
14 France: Alma - Requiem
15 Norway: JOWST - Feel This Moment
16 Ukraine: O. Torvald - Time
17 Greece: Demy - This Is Love
18 Hungary: Joci Papai - Origo
19 Azerbaijan: DiHaj - Skeletons
20 Austria: Nathan Trent - Running On Air

21 Australia: Isaiah - Don't Come Easy
22 Poland: Kasia Mos - Flashlight
23 Germany: Levina - Perfect Life
24 Spain: Manel Navarro - Do It For Your Lover
25 Cyprus: Hovig - Gravity
26 Denmark: Anja - Where I Am

Posted by: LexC♀ 13th May 2017, 05:46 PM

Final Prediction:

01 Bulgaria
02 Portugal
03 Italy
04 Belgium
05 Romania
06 Sweden
07 Armenia
08 Israel
09 Moldova
10 Croatia

11 Netherlands
12 Poland
13 United Kingdom
14 Azerbaijan
15 Hungary
16 Denmark
17 Belarus
18 Greece
19 France
20 Australia

21 Ukraine
22 Austria
23 Cyprus
24 Norway
25 Spain
26 Germany

Posted by: TS0301 13th May 2017, 05:55 PM

1 Bulgaria
2 Italy
3 Portugal
4 Armenia
5 The Netherlands
6 Azerbaijan
7 Sweden
8 Belgium
9 United Kingdom
10 France
11 Austria
12 Romania
13 Poland
14 Greece
15 Hungary
16 Australia
17 Israel
18 Denmark
19 Ukraine
20 Belarus
21 Croatia
22 Norway
23 Moldova
24 Cyprus
25 Germany
26 Spain

Posted by: Lukuzz 13th May 2017, 06:18 PM

1. Portugal
2. Italy
3. Sweden
4. Bulgaria
5. Belgium
6. Romania
7. Netherlands
8. Moldova
9. Croatia
10. Israel
11. France
12. Hungary
13. Australia
14. Armenia
15. Azerbaijan
16. Poland
17. United Kingdom
18. Norway
19. Cyprus
20. Belarus
21. Austria
22. Germany
23. Ukraine
24. Denmark
25. Greece
26. Spain

Completely random guesses

Posted by: Klaus 13th May 2017, 06:32 PM

I swear that the UK goes through the same cycle every year! Predicted as a no hoper when first announced, then slowly climbs up people's guesses to around the left side of the board in the run up to the show and then places at 22nd.

Posted by: Iz~ 13th May 2017, 06:36 PM

Didn't happen last year for my money, I was sure we were bottom then. And aside from personal bias making me want to put Electro Velvet higher, I don't think that was wildly predicted high either.

I get what you're saying though, for myself, I'm not that keen on the entry as a song, I'm going off rumours of effective staging and a good draw in the running order for us sneaking a top 10. At the very least I think this'll be our best result since 2011.

Posted by: LexC♀ 13th May 2017, 06:42 PM

The buzz is that the techies are big fans of the UK song which is worth at least something I guess. I'm refusing to believe it's a top 10 or anything until I see it though.

Posted by: J▲hq 13th May 2017, 06:45 PM

I don't think Jade, Blue or Molly were ever predicted as no-hopers

Posted by: RobBob 14th May 2017, 12:05 AM

Hey Rich, if you wanna get payback on Lex, remind him of this one x

Posted by: Liаm 14th May 2017, 12:14 AM

Got the correct bottom and 2 two just switched round Not TOO bad, I was within a couple for positions for quite a few and spot on with Blanche and Alex/Ilinca in the top 10.

Posted by: Ryan. 14th May 2017, 12:48 AM

Just saving this for when I get Finland 2015 thrown in my face in the future

Posted by: LexC♀ 14th May 2017, 12:56 AM

We'll call it a score draw at this point Ryan.

Posted by: gooddelta 14th May 2017, 08:34 AM

Ha! Well I'll give Lex his Italian blog post - bang on the money in the end!

To be fair I didn't exactly expect an astonishing result from Portugal at that point either (though I thought it would convincingly Q at least, though I never made any predictions I've realised!).

As I mentioned in the Portugal thread, it didn't do anything for me until hearing it on the official CD and realising how much it stood out.

I guess all this shows is that we shouldn't necessarily base Eurovision winners on how well they did in their own national final, Portugal has shown how much momentum can be built from that point onwards in various ways. Also makes me appreciate Sweden's use of the international jury in their final...six top fives in seven years!

Posted by: Jason 14th May 2017, 03:39 PM

I guessed right the top 2 and the bottom 2.
Also number 4, 8 and 21

Posted by: gooddelta 14th May 2017, 03:46 PM

City Lights screamed 4th to me for ages, I wish I'd put money on that happening.

4th seems to be the place for highly respected, fan favourite or slightly edgy blogpop style songs, which never gather quite the momentum of the songs in the top three. Rhythm Inside and I Feed You My Love are cut from the same cloth.