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BuzzJack Music Forum _ UK Charts _ Predict: Adele - 25
Posted by: vidcapper 23rd October 2015, 05:39 AM
We're within a month of the expected release date, so it's time to predict!
Obviously there's no point having a poll as to where it will chart, as that's the biggest no-brainer of the century 
, so it's more of sales prediction thread
Posted by: vidcapper 23rd October 2015, 08:50 AM
Glad to see I'm not the only one picking 500k+ 1st week. 
Posted by: Dantom. 23rd October 2015, 08:57 AM
~400k
~1.2m
10-14 weeks
Posted by: Juranamo 23rd October 2015, 08:58 AM
I know sales really are in the shitter, but I can really see Adele being the exception. I think it'll manage around 600k (maybe even selling faster than Oasis' record) first week, with about 1.9m by the end of the year and around 9 weeks at #1. I'm pretty confident the album will dominate even more than the single!
Posted by: Nick F1 23rd October 2015, 08:59 AM
565,000
1,750,000
14+
Posted by: jay727 23rd October 2015, 09:51 AM
Don't think she'll beat Take That's first week sales for Progress. Different music market now. Should probably clear 350k first week.
Posted by: James1987 23rd October 2015, 10:11 AM
300-350k
750-1 million
8-9 weeks
I'm going to play it safe but I think she could easily go over 400k first week but I'm not sure, but the demand is there. And of course she will have the biggest selling album if 2015, I can see her being close to a million by end of the year.
Posted by: gavindeejay 23rd October 2015, 10:23 AM
I'd think she will clear 300k on the first run and should be at Number 1 until Christmas and beyond!
Posted by: Colm 23rd October 2015, 10:35 AM
Ooops...totally missread the thread. I thought it was about the single.
Posted by: Envoirment 23rd October 2015, 01:38 PM
550k+
2 million+ by the end of the year and 10-14 weeks at #1.
Posted by: soundseekerz 23rd October 2015, 02:30 PM
Predict: 250K - 300K
Sales for YE: 1M - 1.2M
Weeks at No. 1: 6-7 Weeks
We will be number 1 til' years end. She will be toppled by the january clearout sales and then return to the summit
Posted by: Noeyz 23rd October 2015, 05:26 PM
I think she will debut around 300-400k
surely, she will claim No.1 best selling album by 800k+ or 1M+ (if next single is hyped)
She will take No.1 spot till New Years
Posted by: Ryan. 23rd October 2015, 05:27 PM
350-400k
1.25m-1.5m
more than 14 weeks
They are my predictions! 
Posted by: Common Sense 24th October 2015, 04:52 PM
I've also gone for over 500k. Those of you who have said less than 200k are really imo underestimating the first week's demand for 25!
Posted by: Ellsmere 24th October 2015, 06:35 PM
This Will be an absolute monster of an album, if the second single is commercially successful then we may see sales eclipse 21... Which is crazy but could happen.
1st week sales probably won't be beaten for years or even decades to come.
Everything seems to be perfectly set up for 25 to sell... Anticipation, lead single, timing and promotion.
Also it's scary that she said during the radio 1 interview yesterday that there is another song on the album that she says is her favourite and she can't wait for us to hear.
Posted by: vidcapper 26th October 2015, 06:12 AM
If I'd have known so many were going to pick >500k, I'd have added another category.
BTW, someone said that Oasis's 695k first week sales were actually over just 3 days, but I cannot confirm that myself, as I wasn't following the charts at the time? 
Posted by: britboy 26th October 2015, 09:56 AM
the album is no.1 on all the pre order charts both physical & digital and has been for a few days I am expecting 400-500,000 perhaps more if she has an xfactor performance & promotes a 2nd single before
Posted by: liamk97 26th October 2015, 12:51 PM
Yeah, it had 3 days of sales in its first chart week, revealed as 696k at the time but since revised to 663k. It sold 813k in its first week in shops (but that will have since been downgraded too).
Posted by: The Hit Parade 26th October 2015, 05:46 PM
It was even on the actual news when that Oasis album came out. Though not everyone would remember it of course.
Posted by: Ethan 26th October 2015, 07:46 PM
>550k
>2.35m
>14+ wks @ #1
Posted by: ___∆___ 26th October 2015, 11:45 PM
Adele will absolutely smash sales and would be shocked to see her do less than 550k in her opening week - I know the market is 'different' to what it was but so is Adele different to everyone else out there and totally cuts through generations and genres. The fact that the single alone has sent her previous 4.7 million selling album back into the Top 15 goes some way in showing how much excitement there is for this - Monster sales and will be #1 well into the new year.
Posted by: Addy K!ng 27th October 2015, 06:19 AM
Definitely more than 500k...and also I don't get how the most of you people are predicting this to sell more than 500k first week and 'only' 1-1.25 until the end of the year?
Aren't sales HUGE Nov-Dec (especially 3 weeks before Xmas)?!!! I think she will finish the year with 2.15 million copies
Posted by: Adam's Cauldron 27th October 2015, 09:50 AM
Awful predictions as usual but 99 billion 250-300k, 750-1000k and a never ending run of 9 weeks at #1 initially (although I'm guessing it'll be a lot more as it'll keep returning to #1)
Posted by: Ellsmere 27th October 2015, 11:15 AM
I'm going for.... First week sales of 670k! And i think it will sell around 2 million copies this year alone... I also think in two years time this will be the highest selling uk album of all time.
It sounds crazy but I think it's time to stop underestimating everything adele releases.
Posted by: mr_pmt 27th October 2015, 11:27 AM
I can see this maybe grabbing 3-4 weeks at #1 initially and her performing something else from it on a big primetime slot in December to send it back to #1 for a few weeks over Christmas.
Posted by: SKOB 27th October 2015, 02:41 PM
She has the YE #1 on lock, it will probably take just 3 weeks...
Posted by: Davidson 27th October 2015, 03:43 PM
Predictions:
Around 550,000 opening sales
Around 1,450,000 by end of the year
14+ weeks at #1. Can see it being #1 for a lot of 2016.
Posted by: Common Sense 27th October 2015, 06:36 PM
BBC special coming.
From BBC News.
Pop star Adele is to be grilled by Graham Norton in a special, hour-long BBC One show as she prepares to release her third album, 25.
The singer, who is following up the 30 million-selling 21, will also play some of her new songs for the first time.
"Adele at the BBC" will be her first television appearance since performing Skyfall at the 2013 Oscar ceremony.
"I can't wait," said the star. "Graham and I get on great so it's going to be a laugh."
Calling Adele's new album "the music event of the year," Norton added: "This opportunity to spend an hour with Adele, her music and her stories is a truly rare treat.
"If I wasn't hosting this special I'd be sat at home watching it."
The show will be taped in front of a live audience on 2 November. Tickets will be allocated via a ballot, and applications are open now on the BBC Music website.
A transmission date for the show has yet to confirmed.
Posted by: Mart123 30th October 2015, 05:35 PM
Her last album opened with 205,000 and that was in February. There is such a buzz about her at the moment surely she will pass 400-450k within first week and by year end if not before she will surpass one million sales ! Hello is probably gonna sell 300k pass today , that's a crazy amount for a single that's just dropped fromnowhere!
Posted by: Mart123 30th October 2015, 05:37 PM
333,000 for hello! And over seven million streams and that's just the single! This album is gonna go wild when it's out!!
Posted by: vidcapper 30th October 2015, 06:10 PM
Am I alone in now wondering if Adele could do the unthinkable - sell 1 million copies on her first week?
Posted by: Mart123 30th October 2015, 06:25 PM
Wonder that be amazing ! I don't think it will do it in just a week though ! It will in the US!
Posted by: All Hallows Peen 30th October 2015, 06:45 PM
We are polar opposites - I am thinking between 200-300k first week.
Posted by: Common Sense 30th October 2015, 06:48 PM
Hope the big supermarkets have ordered enough in for first week's sales. Don't want to pay the extra postage for Amazon, unless a Deluxe is announced before 20th.
Posted by: n4yr 30th October 2015, 06:56 PM
I'll say a minimum of 500k; with a good chance of surpassing Progress for the fastest selling album of the decade. Her hype is enormous right now.
Posted by: pippa 30th October 2015, 07:15 PM
I don't believe there will be a middle ground with Adele on opening week. 25 will either sell far less than most people expect (200,000-250,000) or she will sell something crazy in the lines of 1 million.
It is great to see such anticipation around sales, its been a while since the anticipation was so high for a new release relating to how big it will sell.
Posted by: Liаm 30th October 2015, 07:17 PM
I can see her doing at least 500k. If the single has done 333k and she's such a huge album sales, this will be stratospheric!
Posted by: mr_pmt 30th October 2015, 07:18 PM
I'm gonna say 520k first week for this!
Posted by: Cauldron 30th October 2015, 07:18 PM
If the reviews are positive it could be really bolster sales from the music fans who follow the music press a bit more.
Posted by: Ellsmere 30th October 2015, 08:04 PM
I've said before around the 710-730k mark for the opening week sales,
It won't be under 500k I'm sure... 1 million is just crazy but the fact it's been mentioned in a serious discussion is a credit to adele, but its out of reach I think.
I think it may break n sync's no strings attached album sales record in the US... 2.1 million I think.
Posted by: liamk97 31st October 2015, 12:40 AM
Yep, after selling well over 300k of the single, I can see Adele smashing the 500k barrier with the album. I think Oasis' record is definitely at risk, quite possibly its full-week sales too.
Posted by: vidcapper 31st October 2015, 10:29 AM
Replace 'week' with 'day' and I might agree with you.
Posted by: HallowPusheen 31st October 2015, 10:50 AM
It is great to see such anticipation around sales, its been a while since the anticipation was so high for a new release relating to how big it will sell.
There's absolutely no chance her sales will be as low as 250k. Remember '21' opened on over 200k and that was a Q1 release (and while it did have pretty massive hype itself, the hype around '25' pre-release is much, much bigger).
Posted by: Dannoween 31st October 2015, 01:09 PM
~1.2m
10-14 weeks
After seeing Hello's massive sales I now expect it'll do at least 500k first week, maybe even 600k? Also 1.5m for the end of year chart. I'll still keep my 10-14 weeks prediction (for its initial run anyway, I imagine it'll return to #1 once every few months like '21' did for a while too)
Posted by: vidcapper 9th November 2015, 06:09 AM
Given how long Sam & Ed have hung around T10 on 10k or less a week, it could be 2017 before she leaves the T10.
Posted by: Gezza 9th November 2015, 09:36 PM
it was only downgraded because Millward Brown got recording of sales incorrect for that week only, the "downgrading" is a feature of the 94-96 period only as by 1997 sample size was virtually all the market so weighting was not an issue. To clarify it sold 898k in it's first 10 days on sale (2 chart weeks)
Posted by: CallumDC 10th November 2015, 12:21 AM
does anybody think that coldplay have *any* chance of dethroning her on the week commencing 04/12, even if just for a single week?
Posted by: Bré 10th November 2015, 01:33 AM
I think they might have a chance, but I think it's more likely they'll just enter at #2 (with very high sales).
Posted by: vidcapper 10th November 2015, 06:17 AM
Ghost Stories sold 168k first week, but that was in May - however, I'm not sure whether the autumn release of the new album will gain it more sales than the drop in the overall album market will cost it.
I suspect they'll need a minimum of 200k+ to have a chance against Adele's 3rd week sales, though.
Posted by: fiesta 10th November 2015, 01:27 PM
hard to predict, on the one hand album sales in general are pretty dire, and on the other the country is in the grip of adele-mania.
first week i'd say over 300k
Posted by: BrookeOlivia 19th November 2015, 08:56 PM
I can see this doing over 500k, Maybe even over 600k, I don't want to over predict but this is Adele so i wouldn't underestimate her either.
Posted by: Mangř 19th November 2015, 08:59 PM
Surely this topic should be closed from tomorrow so that people can't cheat with their votes
Posted by: MishaB 19th November 2015, 09:17 PM
first week i'd say over 300k
The U.K. is a hard one to predict - much harder to predict than America. Just compare the records broken in America with hello compared to the Uk, it's world's apart. I don't think it's going to sell ridiculous numbers here, maybe around 400k if she's lucky. That would be better for the longevity of the album though.
Posted by: mr_pmt 19th November 2015, 09:17 PM
I can't believe in a week we'll be knowing the answer to this, all these years of speculating.
Posted by: Envoirment 19th November 2015, 09:24 PM
Well, given that "Hello" has outperformed "Rolling In The Deep", the hype around Adele is much bigger than when 21 was released, 21 sold 208,000 copies in its first week in January and 25 is being released in late November, I find it hard to believe she'll do anything less than 500k.
Posted by: Mart123 19th November 2015, 11:16 PM
I'm with you on this one! And as its not being streamed straight away! Will rocket to the top! Can't wait to hear it!!
Posted by: Heathyheath_ 20th November 2015, 12:15 AM
I went for between 1.25 million and 1.5 million for her six week YTD sales, 450K this week and more than 14 weeks at number one overall. I can see it constantly popping up at number one in the new year.
Posted by: vidcapper 20th November 2015, 06:22 AM
'25' definitely not being streamed, at least initially...
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3325895/Adeles-new-album-25-not-available-streaming.html
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