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| Sean Parker: Spotify will overtake iTunes in two years |
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 Mar 17 2012, 09:18 AM
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#2
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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/appl...-two-years.html
QUOTE Speaking at the annual South by Southwest (SXSW) conference in Texas, on a music discussion panel, the Spotify and Facebook investor said: “If Spotify continues growing at its current rate in terms of subscribers and users, we will overtake iTunes in terms of the amount of revenue we contribute to the music labels in under two years.” My guesstimate: Spotify is generating about $500-600 million a year in revenue right now. It grew from 1 million to 3 million in a space of ~10 months (March 2011 to Jan 2012). January, 2010:------------ 250,000 paid subscribers March 17, 2010:----------- 320,000 July 20, 2010: ---------------- 500,000 December 8, 2010: ------ 750,000 March 8, 2011:--------------- 1,000,000 July 14, 2011: -----------------1,600,000 Sept 21, 2011: ---------------- 2,000,000 Nov 23, 2011: ------------------2,500,000 Jan 26, 2012: -------------------3,000,000 March 17, 2012: ----------------???? (Spotify recently said that it was "WELL NORTH" of 3 millions but didn't specify). Spotify just expanded to Germany (82 million population) and will debut in Australia and New Zealand by the end of this month. Between these 3 countries, that's 100 million people. However, I don't see Spotify overtaking Itunes (worldwide) within 2 years. That's too optimistic. 4-5 years is doable however for subscription music (spotify/deezer/rhapsody/muve music etc..). By the end of 2012, there will be around 18-20 million paying subscribers for subscription music service. That's about $2 billion a year in revenue. This post has been edited by Dust2: Mar 17 2012, 09:21 AM |
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Mar 17 2012, 11:42 AM
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Paul Hyett
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How many UK subscribers though?
I guess eventually some way will need to be found to incorporate Spotify into the official charts... |
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Mar 17 2012, 11:47 AM
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QUOTE(vidcapper @ Mar 17 2012, 11:42 AM)  How many UK subscribers though? I guess eventually some way will need to be found to incorporate Spotify into the official charts... They could probably do 10 streams = 1 sale or something like that. And they should include other places, rather than just Spotify imo, even places where you can stream for free like VEVO. |
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Mar 17 2012, 02:00 PM
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'Oh honey... I would, but I don't want to'
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Spotify has overtaken iTunes in Sweden, iTunes isn't actually used in their official chart (Spotify is the main component iirc) and it's sort of become irrelevant. I think the number 1 sells on average about 500 downloads. But Spotify is HUGE over there, so much so that the current top 10 most listened to songs on Spotify are:
01 Loreen - Euphoria 02 Flo Rida ft. Sia - Wild Ones 03 Michel Telo - Ai Se Eu Te Pego 04 Train - Drive By 05 Sean Banan - Sean Den Forste Banan 06 David Guetta ft. Sia - Titanium 07 Danny Saucedo - Amazing 08 Snop Dogg, Bruno Mars & Wiz Khalifa - We Are Young 09 Coldplay - Paradise 10 Skrillex ft. Sirah - Bangarang Of these, Sean Den Forste Banan and Amazing are plays pretty much solely from Sweden, as they were in Melodifestivalen (Sweden's Eurovision selection) this year. Euphoria won and is number 1 in Finland so internet hype could push more plays to that. There's also a good few Swedish/Nordic songs in the top 100 that probably aren't available elsewhere. I do wonder if Spotify could ever get this big in the UK? I doubt it will ever diminsh iTunes to what it's like in Sweden, but I do see it getting bigger and bigger in the next 2/3 years. |
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Mar 17 2012, 02:57 PM
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BuzzJack Legend
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^ That explains why random European songs do so well in the worldwide chart sometimes. That makes sense.
 The top 10 in the UK is:1. Gotye - Somebody That I Used to Know 2. Nicki Minaj - Starships 3. Flo Rida - Wild Ones 4. David Guetta - Titanium 5. Ed Sheeran - Drunk 6. Jessie J - Domino 7. David Guetta - Turn Me On 8. Rihanna - We Found Love 9. Coldplay - Paradise 10. Ed Sheeran - Lego House The effects on the music that makes the chart of including streaming I think would be that female pop music would do worse, and male artists would do better, as well as indie/alternative doing better. I used to think streaming would benefit female pop songs, but seeing what's happened with them including it in the US charts, it seems to hurt them a lot. |
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Mar 18 2012, 03:37 PM
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new users to Spotify need a Facebook account now too. Wonder if that will hinder it's growth...
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Mar 18 2012, 03:51 PM
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QUOTE(seanster @ Mar 18 2012, 03:37 PM) new users to Spotify need a Facebook account now too. Wonder if that will hinder it's growth... I think it'll help it's growth, since it now means it can use Facebook to advertise itself more than it could before. |
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Mar 18 2012, 04:00 PM
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WINTER IS COMING
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These predictions are way off the mark, but interesting. iTunes has such a big hold on the music market that currently in the big markets it will be a long time before Spotify overtakes it. The thing with Facebook is good though, but they're gambling on the fact Facebook will be a long term susainable business partner. iTunes relies on itself. Spotify will undoubtebly grow much bigger than it already is though.
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Mar 18 2012, 04:02 PM
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QUOTE(Liаm @ Mar 17 2012, 02:00 PM) Spotify has overtaken iTunes in Sweden, iTunes isn't actually used in their official chart (Spotify is the main component iirc) and it's sort of become irrelevant. I think the number 1 sells on average about 500 downloads. But Spotify is HUGE over there, so much so that the current top 10 most listened to songs on Spotify are: 01 Loreen - Euphoria 02 Flo Rida ft. Sia - Wild Ones 03 Michel Telo - Ai Se Eu Te Pego 04 Train - Drive By 05 Sean Banan - Sean Den Forste Banan 06 David Guetta ft. Sia - Titanium 07 Danny Saucedo - Amazing 08 Snop Dogg, Bruno Mars & Wiz Khalifa - We Are Young 09 Coldplay - Paradise 10 Skrillex ft. Sirah - Bangarang Of these, Sean Den Forste Banan and Amazing are plays pretty much solely from Sweden, as they were in Melodifestivalen (Sweden's Eurovision selection) this year. Euphoria won and is number 1 in Finland so internet hype could push more plays to that. There's also a good few Swedish/Nordic songs in the top 100 that probably aren't available elsewhere. I do wonder if Spotify could ever get this big in the UK? I doubt it will ever diminsh iTunes to what it's like in Sweden, but I do see it getting bigger and bigger in the next 2/3 years. The reason iTunes doesn't contribute to the Swedish chart is because they fell out with the compilers, rather than they saw it as irrelevant. |
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Mar 18 2012, 10:44 PM
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QUOTE(vidcapper @ Mar 17 2012, 11:42 AM) How many UK subscribers though? There was an article about this at nme.com a few days ago:I guess eventually some way will need to be found to incorporate Spotify into the official charts... UK Singles Chart has 'no immediate plans' to incorporate Spotify plays Official Charts Company say they won't be following Billboard's plans to include streaming plays The Official Charts Company (OCC) have said it has "no immediate plans" to include data from streaming services such as Spotify in the UK Singles Chart. Earlier today, it was reported by Techradar that Billboard magazine's Hot 100 chart will now use stats from sites including Spotify, Rhapsody and Rdio to compile its chart placings, as well as download sales and radio play. However, speaking to NME, OCC managing director Martin Talbot said that it would continue to determine its rankings on sales figures as streaming is "still an emerging service" in the UK. He said: QUOTE We have no immediate plans to incorporate streaming information into the Official Singles Chart. In the UK, our Official Charts have always been based purely on genuine sales – unlike in the US, where the Billboard Hot 100 has long since mixed with airplay information. He went on to add: "Streaming information is simply an extension of this methodology. Also, in the UK we are continuing to see a surge of interest in buying singles – 2011 was a record year for single sales, with 178m unites sold throughout the year, the highest ever, 10% up on 2010 and still growing in 2012 – while streaming is still an emerging service for UK music fans." Spotify continues to be a divisive service within the music industry. Last month (February 2), its CEO and founder Daniel Ek claimed that it was helping the music business enter a "golden age" as people who share music online are more likely to buy more tracks and albums, and insisted that there was "not a shred of evidence" to suggest that musicians could boost their sales figures by not being on the service. However, figures such as U2's manager Paul McGuinness have criticised the service in the past by claiming that artists are reluctant to embrace Spotify as they are unable to see its "financial benefit" and don't view it as a legitimate business model. http://www.nme.com/news/various-artists/62616 |
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Mar 18 2012, 10:46 PM
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There is, however, an official subscription (digital) plays chart which is compiled using data from a number of streaming sites though I don't know if Spotify is included
http://www.officialcharts.com/archive-chart/_/5/2012-03-24/ |
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Mar 19 2012, 08:25 AM
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QUOTE(Robbie @ Mar 18 2012, 10:46 PM) There is, however, an official subscription (digital) plays chart which is compiled using data from a number of streaming sites though I don't know if Spotify is included http://www.officialcharts.com/archive-chart/_/5/2012-03-24/ Didn't realise they were already compiling this. As I suspected, it's not as fresh as the sales chart, which is slow enough as it is. I don't want them including this data until streaming becomes more popular than downloading, which I hope it won't, but it might be inevitable. |
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Mar 19 2012, 10:22 AM
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QUOTE(AcerBen @ Mar 19 2012, 08:25 AM) Didn't realise they were already compiling this. As I suspected, it's not as fresh as the sales chart, which is slow enough as it is. I don't want them including this data until streaming becomes more popular than downloading, which I hope it won't, but it might be inevitable. The Subscription Chart has been compiled for a few years. An archive of the chart back to October 2009 can be accessed from that link. There was also a press release from the OCC back in October 2008 outlining the plans for the chart but it seems like the chart took a year to get up and runninghttp://www.bpi.co.uk/press-area/news-amp3b...rt-2392008.aspx I don't think Spotify offered subscriptions back in October 2008 so isn't mentioned in that press release, assuming of course that data from Spotify is even included now. |
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Mar 19 2012, 02:10 PM
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QUOTE(AcerBen @ Mar 18 2012, 09:02 AM) The reason iTunes doesn't contribute to the Swedish chart is because they fell out with the compilers, rather than they saw it as irrelevant. In Sweden, Spotify is 84% of the digital music market. Legal downloads like Itunes is like 16%. in term of revenue This post has been edited by Dust2: Mar 19 2012, 02:10 PM |
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Mar 20 2012, 07:26 AM
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Paul Hyett
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QUOTE(Robbie @ Mar 18 2012, 10:46 PM) There is, however, an official subscription (digital) plays chart which is compiled using data from a number of streaming sites though I don't know if Spotify is included http://www.officialcharts.com/archive-chart/_/5/2012-03-24/ With Coldplay-Paradise still #2 there, but just #37 on sales, I doubt there'll be a rush to advocate streaming-play inclusion in the charts...
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Mar 20 2012, 07:51 AM
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QUOTE(vidcapper @ Mar 20 2012, 07:26 AM) With Coldplay-Paradise still #2 there, but just #37 on sales, I doubt there'll be a rush to advocate streaming-play inclusion in the charts... I think there will be, by certain people. I wouldn't mind personally, but reading that article it seems they only track a few sites for that chart, and only do subscriptions, whilst I think they should include streaming sites where you don't need to suscribe aswell, and try and include as many as possible (like Billboard do now). But I agree that it would be HORRIBLE entertainment-wise. The charts are incredibly slow at the moment, and this would just make that partciular problem even worse. |
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Mar 20 2012, 08:40 AM
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Paul Hyett
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QUOTE(Eric_Blob @ Mar 20 2012, 07:51 AM) I think there will be, by certain people. Coldplay fans, perhaps?
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Mar 20 2012, 06:34 PM
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QUOTE(vidcapper @ Mar 20 2012, 08:40 AM) Coldplay fans, perhaps? Yeah, probably. Streaming seems to benefit artists such as Coldplay, Ed Sheeran, Lana Del Rey, Drake, Emeli Sande, etc, and it seems to hurt artists such as Katy Perry. |
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Jun 1 2012, 07:16 AM
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http://spotifyroyalties.blogspot.com/
QUOTE Spotify Revenue: 2008: $0.612 million USD 2009: $18.1 million USD 2010: $99 million USD 2011: $236.4 million USD 2012: projected at $889 million USD AMAZING growth QUOTE Spotify Valuation:
February 2011: $1 billion valuation May 2012: $4 billion valuation |
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Jun 1 2012, 09:03 AM
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Paul Hyett
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QUOTE(Eric_Blob @ Mar 20 2012, 07:34 PM) Yeah, probably. Streaming seems to benefit artists such as Coldplay, Ed Sheeran, Lana Del Rey, Drake, Emeli Sande, etc, and it seems to hurt artists such as Katy Perry. Basically, it seems to favour 'Radio 2' artists over 'Radio 1' ones? |
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