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> UKIP (briefly) gets its first MP/By-Elections
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Brett-Butler
post Aug 28 2014, 10:45 AM
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Defection alert! Defection alert!

QUOTE
Tory MP Douglas Carswell has defected to the UK Independence Party and will stand down as MP for Clacton to seek re-election in a by-election.

If he wins the by-election he will be the first UKIP MP to take a seat in Westminster.

The maverick Eurosceptic backbencher said he wants to "shake up" the cosy Westminster "clique".

He unveiled his surprise announcement at a news conference in central London.

He told reporters he did not believe Conservative leader and Prime Minister David Cameron was "serious about the change we need".

He said the decision to jump ship from the Conservatives had given him "sleepless nights" but he wanted to see "fundamental change in British politics" and UKIP - a party he believed belonged to its members rather than a "little clique" of political insiders - could deliver it.

UKIP leader Nigel Farage, who this week was selected to fight South Thanet at the 2015 general election, said it was the "bravest and most honourable" decision he had ever seen in British politics.


It's an interesting (and some might say money-wasting) move to call a by-election straight after defecting rather than just riding the course until May - perhaps he's trying to get more airtime for UKIP after a lull since the European elections? I'd said before that the only way I saw UKIP winning seats at the General Election was if there was a high profile defection, and although I don't know how big a deal Douglas Carswell is, it could be a potential game-changer. Or not.
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Qassändra
post Aug 28 2014, 11:03 AM
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(Bob Spink was actually their first MP in 2008.)

I actually think it's a pretty principled move to recontest your seat if you defect. People cry waste of money and all, but it's only really fair to give the voters a choice over whether they want to keep their MP if they're representing a different party. Very consistent with Carswell's ideology as well - he's one of those direct democracy libertarians that wants to turn us into the new Switzerland, so it would've been a bit off if he hadn't recontested.

Unfortunately I think he's going to win. He's got a big personal following in Clacton. Half the local party's likely to defect to follow him as he made a point of building up his own base.
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Suedehead2
post Aug 28 2014, 12:17 PM
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While it may be described as a principled move it can also be described as a waste of money with the general election barely eight months away.
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Brett-Butler
post Sep 17 2014, 08:19 PM
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The candidates for the Clacton by-election on 9th October are -

• Douglas Carswell (UKIP)
• Andy Graham (Liberal Democrats)
• Alan “Howling Laud” Hope (Monster Raving Loony Party)
• Charlotte Rose (Independent)
• Bruce Sizer (Independent)
• Chris Southall (Green)
• Giles Watling (Conservative)
• Tim Young (Labour)

Should be between Douglas Carswell and Conservatives, with UKIP just narrowly winning their first seat. Independent candidate Charlotte Rose might get a bit of tabloid coverage, by virtue of her occupation.

There's also going to be a 2nd by-election on the same day in Heywood and Middleton, following the death of Labour MP Jim Dobbin. The candidates for that one are -

John Bickley (UKIP)
Iain Gartside (Conservative)
Abi Jackson (Green)
Liz McInnes (Labour)
Anthony Smith (Liberal Democrat)

I imagine that Labour will retain this seat, although recent events in Rochdale, which forms part of this constituency, may have an influence on this election. UKIP's candidate has already made reference to it.
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Doctor Blind
post Sep 17 2014, 08:28 PM
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I don't think even divine intervention will help the former vicar from Bread, agreed with the general consensus that Clacton will be going UKIP.
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Qassändra
post Sep 17 2014, 08:37 PM
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Clacton isn't going to be narrow at all. UKIP are getting at least 50%.

Apparently Matthew Parris's column in The Times the other week (paywall; also likely to bring Danny out in hives from sheer metropolitan liberal elitedom) is being used actively by Ukip in their campaigning against the Conservatives - a few councillors defected along with Carswell the day he announced it, but there have actually been more defections since the Parris column and it's been pretty disastrous for the Tories locally.

To begin with it was polled that Ukip were between 55-65% of the vote and the Tories were on about 20% (and interestingly only went up to 27% when people were asked how they'd vote if Boris ran) with Labour behind on around 15%. There haven't been any polls since the Parris column but it would be absolutely delicious if Labour overtook the Tories come May 9th.
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NellyEverySundae
post Sep 17 2014, 08:48 PM
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Nigel Farage is coming to my school for the 'Any Question' segment on Radio 4 ohmy.gif
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Danny
post Sep 18 2014, 11:51 AM
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QUOTE(Cassandra @ Sep 17 2014, 09:37 PM) *
Clacton isn't going to be narrow at all. UKIP are getting at least 50%.

Apparently Matthew Parris's column in The Times the other week (paywall; also likely to bring Danny out in hives from sheer metropolitan liberal elitedom) is being used actively by Ukip in their campaigning against the Conservatives - a few councillors defected along with Carswell the day he announced it, but there have actually been more defections since the Parris column and it's been pretty disastrous for the Tories locally.

To begin with it was polled that Ukip were between 55-65% of the vote and the Tories were on about 20% (and interestingly only went up to 27% when people were asked how they'd vote if Boris ran) with Labour behind on around 15%. There haven't been any polls since the Parris column but it would be absolutely delicious if Labour overtook the Tories come May 9th.


biggrin.gif

Snobbish and plain wrong though he is, kudos to him for atleast having the guts to say out loud what all of the elites think: that this huge crisis is all the fault of the "Great Unwashed" for not realising the supposed "facts" of how political parties supposedly have to act, rather than it being the fault of the politicians themselves


This post has been edited by Danny: Sep 18 2014, 11:51 AM
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Soy Adrián
post Sep 19 2014, 11:29 PM
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Awh, I was almost getting nostalgic for Tories who admit to not caring about anywhere without a Pret.
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Brett-Butler
post Sep 27 2014, 02:14 PM
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The start of a tsunami, or just a slightly bigger wave? From the BBC -

QUOTE
Conservative MP Mark Reckless has announced that he is leaving the party to join UKIP.

The Rochester and Strood MP made the announcement at the UKIP party conference, in Doncaster.

Delegates started to spontaneously chant "UKIP, UKIP" when Mr Reckless announced his decision, which he said was not easy.

The move comes just weeks after Clacton MP Douglas Carswell defected from the Conservatives to join UKIP.

Mr Carswell announced that he would stand down as an MP in his constituency to seek re-election in a by-election.

Commenting on his decision, Mr Reckless said he had not taken it lightly.

He claimed the Conservative leadership was "part of the problem that is holding our country back".

Appearing on stage to a rapturous reception at the conference, Mr Reckless said voters felt "ripped off and lied to".

He won his seat in 2010 with 23,604 votes - 49% of the vote. Labour's Teresa Murray came second, with 13,651 votes.
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April
post Sep 27 2014, 02:35 PM
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A third by-election then coming up soon. Heywood (after the death of Jim Dobbin - Labour) and Clacton (as mentioned above) taking place on 9th October.
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Suedehead2
post Sep 27 2014, 02:38 PM
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So a second Tory MP decides to waste public funds by calling an unnecessary by-election. Whoever wins will be an MP for just five months before parliament is dissolved for the General Election.
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Qassändra
post Sep 27 2014, 02:55 PM
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QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Sep 27 2014, 03:38 PM) *
So a second Tory MP decides to waste public funds by calling an unnecessary by-election. Whoever wins will be an MP for just five months before parliament is dissolved for the General Election.

Would you have kicked up this kind of fuss had the Alliance done the same in 1982 as a matter of course?
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Suedehead2
post Sep 27 2014, 03:05 PM
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QUOTE(Kärenfanghoney @ Sep 27 2014, 03:55 PM) *
Would you have kicked up this kind of fuss had the Alliance done the same in 1982 as a matter of course?

I would have done if they had forced a by-election a few months before the General Election. One SDP defector (Bruce Douglas-Mann) did indeed resign his seat in 1982 but, if the parliament had run for a full five years, there was a full two years to go until the General Election. Unfortunately - as the by-election took place in the middle of the Falklands conflict, he lost the by-election and the people of Mitcham and Morden were lumbered with the dreadful Angela Rumbold for ten years.
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Popchartfreak
post Sep 27 2014, 04:52 PM
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The last time the Tories disintegrated it was over Europe. Deja vu...
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Danny
post Sep 27 2014, 05:12 PM
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I'm starting to think UKIP could do even better than anyone thought. Up to 20% share of the vote at next year's election perhaps.
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Doctor Blind
post Sep 27 2014, 05:32 PM
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Thank god we have a FPTP voting system which is heavily biased against parties like UKIP. Plus it looks like it'll fracture the Tory vote!
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Qassändra
post Sep 27 2014, 05:45 PM
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QUOTE(Danny @ Sep 27 2014, 06:12 PM) *
I'm starting to think UKIP could do even better than anyone thought. Up to 20% share of the vote at next year's election perhaps.

If there are two wins and more defections, very definitely. But I think with each Tory jumping ship it would start to reinforce the message of it being a Tory party in exile again, which is why I think that'll naturally limit its appeal more to dissatisfied ex-Tories - that is, unless they win Heywood or get someone from Labour to jump ship. I hope Rosie Winterton has Austin Mitchell's nads in a vice.
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Qassändra
post Sep 27 2014, 05:46 PM
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QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Sep 27 2014, 06:32 PM) *
Thank god we have a FPTP voting system which is heavily biased against parties like UKIP. Plus it looks like it'll fracture the Tory vote!

Horrifyingly there's talk of the Tories fielding a centrist to win an anti-UKIP vote from Lib Dems and Labour voters.
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Brett-Butler
post Oct 4 2014, 09:39 PM
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Now this is interesting. An opinion poll taken by Survation has given UKIP the lead for the Rochester byelection. 40%, with a 9 point lead over the Conservatives (with the incumbents, Labour, pushed into third). Of course I'm quite sceptical largely because a) I always exercise scepticism on opinion polls, and b) It's for the Sunday Mail. Still think it's a Labour hold.

*edit* obviously I've mixed up Rochester and Strood with Heywood. Whoops. Think this one will be a UKIP win for Reckless.
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