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> Debut Sales and Million Sales Prediction Game, Predict a single's first week sales without going over!
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t=SpunderfulXmas
post Oct 1 2014, 10:11 AM
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Rules

You can predict any single which has not yet appeared in a midweek chart (first Tuesday) and the number of copies you think it will sell in its first week. If you predict it selling more copies than it does, you score no points. If you predict under, the copies you predict is the points you get. This game of risk means that a higher prediction will score more points if it doesn't go over.

Bonus Scoring
If the prediction is within 20,000 copies (and not going over), the number of points earned by the prediction is multiplied by 1.1 (110%).
If it is within 10,000 copies, it is multiplied by 1.2 (120%).
Within 5,000 copies is x1.5 (120%).
Within 2,000 copies is x1.75 (175%)
Within 1,000 copies is x2 (200%).

In the VERY rare case of correctly matching ALL digits, the player is awarded 20 TIMES (2,000%) of the score, so 40,000 would become 800,000, 120,000 becomes 2,400,000 etc. But don't get your hopes high, it is unlikely to happen, but not as unlikely as winning the lottery biggrin.gif.

It is useful to know that a lower prediction will be more likely to be a match, for example, predicting 4,384 copies will only require that single's copies to match four digits, but predicting 104,491 copies would require six digits to match, which is obviously less likely to happen wink.gif

Example
Predicting Song X to sell 40,000 in its first week when it ends up selling 57,882 copies gives the player 40,000 points. So whatever copies they predicted song X to sell, as long as it is 57,882 or less, equals the points scored. If this player predicted 57,883 or more copies, they would score no points. The player was within 20,000 copies so they are awarded an extra 10% of their score, so 1.1 * 40,000 is 44,000 points.

Player Scores
TBA


This post has been edited by hotchoc26: Oct 1 2014, 10:12 AM
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t=SpunderfulXmas
post Oct 1 2014, 10:36 AM
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Remember you CANNOT change, remove or add predictions after Tuesday 4PM. You may as well put in numbers after the ',' comma, you never know they could be right! laugh.gif

My predictions:


You can predict any uncharted single, NOT just the ones below wink.gif

10 Million People - Example = 11,692

Anaconda - Nicki Minaj = 31,280

Break The Rules - Charli XCX = 16,981

Curious - Ray Foxx ft. Rachel K Kollier = 4,802

Days With You - Snakeships ft. Sinead Harnett = 5,291

Fireball - Pitbull ft. John Ryan = TBA

Flashlight - DJ Fresh ft. Ellie Goulding = 3,029

Flute - New World Sound & Thomas Newson ft. Lethal Bizzle = 52,927

Glow - Ella Henderson = 21,397

Steal My Girl - One Direction = 62,381 (I'm probably under-predicting this one, but I'm playing safe biggrin.gif )

Thank You - MKTO = 9,281

T.I.N.A. - Fuse ODG ft. Angel = TBA


This post has been edited by hotchoc26: Oct 3 2014, 07:25 PM
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t=SpunderfulXmas
post Oct 1 2014, 04:45 PM
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Why do the games I make which I think will succeed flop and the ones I think are rubbish get popular? huh.gif thinking.gif

This post has been edited by hotchoc26: Oct 1 2014, 05:41 PM
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t=SpunderfulXmas
post Oct 2 2014, 06:58 PM
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nocheer.gif please.gif
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Colm
post Oct 2 2014, 07:04 PM
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I think this is really good game. I, however, have no idea how to predict sales.
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t=SpunderfulXmas
post Oct 2 2014, 07:40 PM
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QUOTE(AntoineTTe @ Oct 2 2014, 08:04 PM) *
I think this is really good game. I, however, have no idea how to predict sales.


OK. Have you seen the Sales threads Mart!n makes? He usually posts debut sales and positions every week. Though they can vary a lot, the general trend goes something like this:

#1s: 60,000-130,000, big sellers can sell A LOT more,
#2s: 40,000-80,000, sometimes more if the #1 at the time is a big seller,
#3-5s: 30,000-50,000,
#6-10s: 15,000-40,000,
#11-20s: 10,000-15,000,
#21-40s: 3,000-8,000 on average,
#41-100s: 1,000-5,000.

Of course these can vary significantly, and can be tricky to predict which is why this game is a game of risk. Basically if you predict too high you won't get any points but predicting too low could get you only a few points, but still would be better than nothing!

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Colm
post Oct 2 2014, 08:53 PM
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Thanks. That doesn't solve the problem that I dont have a clue about what songs will go top ten and what will miss the top 40.

that's what I meant when I said I couldn't predict sales.


This post has been edited by AntoineTTe: Oct 2 2014, 08:53 PM
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Cameron
post Oct 2 2014, 09:14 PM
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10 Million People - Example = 3,598

Anaconda - Nicki Minaj = 53,348

Break The Rules - Charli XCX = 27,433

Curious - Ray Foxx ft. Rachel K Kollier = 4,349

Days With You - Snakeships ft. Sinead Harnett = 4,432

Fireball - Pitbull ft. John Ryan = 38,923

Flashlight - DJ Fresh ft. Ellie Goulding = 5,409

Flute - New World Sound & Thomas Newson ft. Lethal Bizzle = 19,544

Glow - Ella Henderson = 36,340

Steal My Girl - One Direction = 83,432

Thank You - MKTO = 1,424

T.I.N.A. - Fuse ODG ft. Angel = 17,437
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t=SpunderfulXmas
post Oct 2 2014, 10:05 PM
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QUOTE(AntoineTTe @ Oct 2 2014, 09:53 PM) *
Thanks. That doesn't solve the problem that I dont have a clue about what songs will go top ten and what will miss the top 40.

that's what I meant when I said I couldn't predict sales.


I understand. I've made some pretty terrible predictions myself, but it's only a game biggrin.gif
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t=SpunderfulXmas
post Oct 2 2014, 10:10 PM
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QUOTE(Cameron @ Oct 2 2014, 10:14 PM) *
10 Million People - Example = 3,598

Anaconda - Nicki Minaj = 53,348

Break The Rules - Charli XCX = 27,433

Curious - Ray Foxx ft. Rachel K Kollier = 4,349

Days With You - Snakeships ft. Sinead Harnett = 4,432

Fireball - Pitbull ft. John Ryan = 38,923

Flashlight - DJ Fresh ft. Ellie Goulding = 5,409

Flute - New World Sound & Thomas Newson ft. Lethal Bizzle = 19,544

Glow - Ella Henderson = 36,340

Steal My Girl - One Direction = 83,432

Thank You - MKTO = 1,424

T.I.N.A. - Fuse ODG ft. Angel = 17,437


You do realise you can predict any uncharted single? Not just mine! laugh.gif
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NellyEverySundae
post Oct 3 2014, 06:26 PM
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Urmm, confuzzled

10 Million People - Example = >1,000

Anaconda - Nicki Minaj = 55,693

Break The Rules - Charli XCX = 30,184

Curious - Ray Foxx ft. Rachel K Kollier = 4,802

Days With You - Snakeships ft. Sinead Harnett = 5,291

Fireball - Pitbull ft. John Ryan = 32,193

Flashlight - DJ Fresh ft. Ellie Goulding = 13,403

Flute - New World Sound & Thomas Newson ft. Lethal Bizzle = 14,283

Glow - Ella Henderson = 37,291

Steal My Girl - One Direction = 94,000

Thank You - MKTO = >1,000

T.I.N.A. - Fuse ODG ft. Angel =20,381
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t=SpunderfulXmas
post Oct 3 2014, 07:16 PM
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OK here's the link to the thread.

You predict any uncharted song's sales in its first week on the chart. Predicting under (or exactly equal to) the resulting sales announced by Mart!n gets you points, but going over gets no points.

Neil, you must put a full figure and not < or > signs. Remember the lower your prediction, the more likely you won't go over but you won't get as many points. Assuming you predict low enough, the sales you predict is about the points you get, depending on how close (but not over) you are.

I'll say it again. You DO NOT have to predict my songs I have listed (10 Million People, Anaconda etc.).
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t=SpunderfulXmas
post Oct 3 2014, 07:22 PM
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Still confused? Let's go to a 'what if' scenario. Neil, you predicted:

QUOTE
Anaconda - Nicki Minaj = 55,693

Break The Rules - Charli XCX = 30,184


In a couple of weeks, Anaconda will chart. Say it ends up at 3 or something, and in Mart!n's future thread, he says it has sold 61,291 copies for example. You predicted less, so you get points. You were 5,598 copies off. In the scoring post above, you get your 55,693 score * 1.2 (under 10,000 copies) which is 66,832 (to nearest whole).

Say Break The Rules was announced to sell 27,291 copies on first week. You predicted more, so you get 0 points for this single.

Any more questions? It really isn't as confusing as it may seem, but when the predicted songs chart and sales are revealed, you will probably get the hang of it tongue.gif


This post has been edited by hotchoc26: Oct 3 2014, 07:24 PM
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t=SpunderfulXmas
post Oct 31 2014, 05:48 PM
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I forgot about this game! ohmy.gif

Let's see what has charted predictions so far:

Hotchoc26

Subtotal: 55,706
Total: 58,452

Anaconda - Nicki Minaj = 31,280 (54,396)

Break The Rules - Charli XCX = 16,981 0 (12,865)

Flashlight - DJ Fresh ft. Ellie Goulding = 3,029 (8,080) [x1.2] [3,635]

Glow - Ella Henderson = 21,397 (39,103) [x1.1] [23,537]

Steal My Girl - One Direction = 62,381 0 (51,250)

Cameron
Subtotal: 112,534
Total: 175,163

Anaconda - Nicki Minaj = 53,348 (54,396) [x1.75] [93,359]

Break The Rules - Charli XCX = 27,433 0 (12,865)

Flashlight - DJ Fresh ft. Ellie Goulding = 5,409 (8,080) [x1.5] [8,113]

Glow - Ella Henderson = 36,340 (39,103) [x1.5] [54,510]

Steal My Girl - One Direction = 83,432 0 (51,250)

T.I.N.A. - Fuse ODG ft. Angel = 17,437 (28,156) [x1.1] [19,181]

Neil. S
Subtotal: 57,672
Total: 140,038

Anaconda - Nicki Minaj = 55,693 0 (54,396)

Break The Rules - Charli XCX = 30,184 0 (12,865)

Flashlight - DJ Fresh ft. Ellie Goulding = 13,403 0 (8,080)

Glow - Ella Henderson = 37,291 (39,103) [x1.75] [65,259]

Steal My Girl - One Direction = 94,000 0 (51,250)

T.I.N.A. - Fuse ODG ft. Angel = 20,381 (28,156) [x1.2] [20,383]


This post has been edited by hotchoc26: Oct 31 2014, 05:52 PM
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t=SpunderfulXmas
post Oct 31 2014, 05:53 PM
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I'm going to make an automated spreadsheet to store the data on so it's easier to calculate the scores and averages tongue.gif
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t=SpunderfulXmas
post Oct 31 2014, 05:53 PM
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I'm going to make an automated spreadsheet to store the data on so it's easier to calculate the scores and averages tongue.gif
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