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> CLOSES TUES 4PM > [20/12/14] * Chart Run Predictions Game, Ronson/Heldens/BMTH/5H/CHVRCHES/Smith/Minaj/Idina
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t=SpunderfulXmas
post Sep 13 2014, 09:16 AM
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Hi everyone, hopefully no one has had the same idea as me, but I have had this prediction game where players can predict the top 100 chart run for a single which has debuted in the top 100. Here are the basic rules:

Rules
  • Predict any songs in the current top 100 which has debuted in the top 100 for the first week, but was not in the 1-100 range the previous week.
  • You may only predict the songs between Sunday 4PM (top 100 published 7PM) until Tuesday 4PM (midweek chart). You may NOT predict after the 4PM, this includes editing your posts!
  • You must predict the positions for each week you think the song will be at. You can predict as many weeks as you like.
  • Every Sunday evening (sometimes through Monday), I will post in this thread the allowed single runs to predict. You may predict runs for all or some of them. As each week passes, the positions per week are compared and the scores are documented.
Scoring
Because the debut position is NOT predicted, the other weeks predicted are compared by position to the position the single was at on that week. A correct match is 50 points (meaning the same position predicted at and its resulting position on the same week), and each position difference is 1 point off of 50. For example, predicting song X to be at 63 on its 12th week when it actually ends on 80 awards the player 33 points, because the player was 17 positions off, so 50-17 is 33. Each position predicted per week is calculated this way, so when the run has been completed (it can take months), the scores are totalled by week to a grand total.
Also, predicting correctly when the song drops out awards 50 points. Each extra week predicted is -2 points and each week not predicted while it stays in the chart is also -2 points.

Example
It's always easier explaining games by example. tongue.gif

Song A is currently new at 5. You may predict the position in the chart it will be the following week, and consecutive weeks after that, until you predict it will drop out of the top 100. You have until 4:00PM on Tuesday to predict the song's ENTIRE top 100 chart run until it leaves the top 100. Remember you cannot change any of your predictions for that single after the deadline.

Each week you must compare the position you predicted the song to be at against the song's actual position. See the scoring section above for how to score. If you predict the song to drop out too early, each week the song stays in the chart after the predicted dropout week is minus 2 off your score. If the song you predict drops out earlier than predicted, each extra week you predicted in the chart is also minus 2. You must do the whole chart run predictions for that single BEFORE the Chart Update, and you have until then to alter your predictions as well.


If the song re-enters while your predict run is still predicted in the chart, you will still be given points for the matches. But if you predict it to dropout during that re-entry period, you still get -20!

Remember, the debut position (the first week) is NEVER predicted.


Week Predicted Position Actual Position [Collapse] Points taken
Week 1 N/A 4 N/A
Week 2 9 7 48
Week 3 10 7 47
Week 4 17 9 42
Week 5 20 16 46
Week 6 22 18 46
Week 7 28 24 46
Week 8 26 26 50
Week 9 26 31 45
Week 10 33 41 42
Week 11 39 47 42
Week 12 45 50 45
Week 13 56 65 40
Week 14 76 51 25
Week 15 OUT 39 -2
Week 16 OUT 53 -2
Week 17 89 78 39
Week 18 99 OUT -2
Total Score: 597

In this example, the single dropped out at W15, but the player didn't predict it to on that week, therefore, that week scored -2 points as well as the next week. However, it re-entered the next week while the player predicted, so points were earned on that week. Week 18 saw the player predict it to dropout but it was actually in the chart on that week, so that week also scores -2.

Player Scores


By Week
20/09/14
27/09/14
04/10/14
11/10/14
18/10/14
25/10/14
01/11/14 (current)


This post has been edited by SNOWING ADAM: Dec 15 2014, 12:28 AM
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dancember
post Sep 13 2014, 09:49 AM
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this game seems a bit complicated but I'll probably get the hang of it soon tongue.gif. I'm not sure how many people would actually be playing this as it's never been done before but you may as well give it a go.
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t=SpunderfulXmas
post Sep 13 2014, 11:04 AM
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QUOTE(Therm• @ Sep 13 2014, 10:49 AM) *
this game seems a bit complicated but I'll probably get the hang of it soon tongue.gif. I'm not sure how many people would actually be playing this as it's never been done before but you may as well give it a go.


Thanks! I'll show you how to play in detail on Sunday!
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t=SpunderfulXmas
post Sep 14 2014, 06:06 PM
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GAME 1 - Week Ending 20/09/2014



This post has been edited by hotchoc26: Sep 29 2014, 09:31 AM
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NellyEverySundae
post Sep 14 2014, 06:51 PM
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I'll give it a try smile.gif Seems very complicated

Blame
01-03-05-10-16-20-27-39-40-42-48-56-67-70-71-79-86-OUT

I think it's quite hard to predict the long-range of the songs

New Flame

10-20-26-34-38-42-46-59-72-OUT

Walking With Elephants

06-16-27-45-61-78-OUT

Centuries

25-21-23-29-36-42-48-62-80-OUT


This post has been edited by Neil. S: Sep 16 2014, 06:18 AM
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dancember
post Sep 14 2014, 07:16 PM
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(1) CALVIN HARRIS FT. JOHN NEWMAN - BLAME
1-3-7-10-12-14-17-18-25-23-28-32-34-37-42-41-47-50-54-52-57-60-62-69-66-73-80-82-88-92-90-98-OUT>32

(6) TEN WALLS - WALKING WITH ELEPHANTS
6-14-25-37-55-78-90-OUT>7

(10) CHRIS BROWN FT. USHER & RICK ROSS - NEW FLAME
10-16-23-27-34-40-53-62-75-83-97-OUT>11

(22) FALL OUT BOY - CENTURIES
22-19-25-32-38-45-50-53-56-70-66-73-78-78-86-91-94-100-OUT>17

this is just guessing laugh.gif I'll probably be wrong for a lot of them
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t=SpunderfulXmas
post Sep 14 2014, 11:30 PM
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It's really not as complex as it may seem, though the scoring theory may look complicated but that is my job tongue.gif , the role of the players certainly isn't. happy.gif
I only wanted to predict Blame and WWE since I have no idea what the others will do. blink.gif

CALVIN HARRIS FT. JOHN NEWMAN - BLAME
1-4-6-6-10-16-26-22-28-28-29-35-39-40-46-43-56-67-67-69-75-57-71-75-80-75>26

TEN WALLS - WALKING WITH ELEPHANTS
6-11-14-19-22-29-27-34-37-40-52-59-65-72-79>15
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Winter Wombatlan...
post Sep 14 2014, 11:38 PM
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(1) CALVIN HARRIS FT. JOHN NEWMAN - BLAME

1-4-7-8-10-11-15-17-22-27-37-43-48-49-56-57-56-57-56-65-66-76-89-100-99-91-76-50-87-89-90-92-94-96-95-100-97-x


(6) TEN WALLS - WALKING WITH ELEPHANTS

6-13-20-31-40-50-65-87-100-99-100-99-100-99-x

(10) CHRIS BROWN FT. USHER & RICK ROSS - NEW FLAME

10-9-11-18-21-23-25-27-29-31-34-37-40-51-67-80-91-90-92-76-78-79-80-x

(22) FALL OUT BOY - CENTURIES

22-27-45-56-76-87-89-90-91-92-93-x

Hope that's correct and all~
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t=SpunderfulXmas
post Sep 14 2014, 11:52 PM
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I originally didn't allow entries for debuts in the 41-100 range, because it would often be a good chance of it dropping out the next week, therefore predicting it to do so would only get you a few points. If anyone thinks this should be introduced, I may reconsider cool.gif
By the way, thanks for showing interest in the game guys, I wasn't expecting this many players and it's only been 5 hours or so! dance.gif
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Math ☂
post Sep 15 2014, 12:09 AM
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Very confused but I'd love to participate! Just as a suggestion maybe you can have us predict the Top 40 runs? I feel like that could capture the essence of the game without creating too much confusion for the player.

Calvin Harris ft. John Newman - Blame

1-4-6-6-9-13-18-25-31-40-46-53-58-59-64-72-77-83-89-94-97-x

Ten Walls - Walking With Elephants

6-18-29-37-50-61-68-77-89-96-x

Chris Brown - New Flame

10-23-31-34-39-45-56-69-73-79-85-92-97-x

Fall Out Boy - Centuries

22-26-44-37-32-39-51-67-81-89-94-x
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t=SpunderfulXmas
post Sep 15 2014, 07:25 AM
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QUOTE(M¤th @ Sep 15 2014, 01:09 AM) *
Very confused but I'd love to participate! Just as a suggestion maybe you can have us predict the Top 40 runs? I feel like that could capture the essence of the game without creating too much confusion for the player.

Calvin Harris ft. John Newman - Blame

1-4-6-6-9-13-18-25-31-40-46-53-58-59-64-72-77-83-89-94-97-x

Ten Walls - Walking With Elephants

6-18-29-37-50-61-68-77-89-96-x

Chris Brown - New Flame

10-23-31-34-39-45-56-69-73-79-85-92-97-x

Fall Out Boy - Centuries

22-26-44-37-32-39-51-67-81-89-94-x


I'm not sure i completely understand your post. Did you mean you suggested predicting any top 40 song regardless of its status? unsure.gif

I've updated the first post rules and example if it helps with all the confusion biggrin.gif


This post has been edited by hotchoc26: Sep 15 2014, 07:53 AM
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soundseekerz
post Sep 15 2014, 09:05 AM
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Interesting concept. Let me give it a shot biggrin.gif

Calvin Harris Ft. John Newman - Blame

1-3-4-7-11-14-16-20-24-29-34-41-44-49-58-58-66-71-77-84-92-99-OUT > 22


Ten Walls - Walking With Elephants

6-14-21-29-39-50-62-79-98-OUT > 9


Chris Brown Ft. Usher & Rick Ross - New Flame

10-10-14-19-26-30-37-45-54-62-68-72-79-86-91-98-OUT > 16


Fall Out Boy - Centuries

22-25-32-45-53-65-76-87-OUT > 8


This post has been edited by soundseekerz: Sep 15 2014, 09:15 AM
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Rob S
post Sep 15 2014, 09:19 AM
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(1) CALVIN HARRIS FT. JOHN NEWMAN - BLAME
1-3-5-6-9-13-14-17-18-22-16-20-23-26-31-35-38-41-40-38-43-49-56-64-69-66-75-77-82-86-93-99-OUT 32 Weeks

(6) TEN WALLS - WALKING WITH ELEPHANTS
6-16-33-54-72-97-OUT 6 Weeks

(10) CHRIS BROWN FT. USHER & RICK ROSS - NEW FLAME
10-17-23-27-29-38-47-61-73-85-88-96-OUT 12 Weeks

(22) FALL OUT BOY - CENTURIES
22-25-26-33-44-51-57-66-76-87-99-OUT 11 Weeks
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Jason
post Sep 16 2014, 01:24 AM
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(1) CALVIN HARRIS FT. JOHN NEWMAN - BLAME
1-4-7-12-16-22-28-35-43-55-60-72-75-89-OUT>14

(6) TEN WALLS - WALKING WITH ELEPHANTS
6-16-23-38-54-78-OUT>6

(10) CHRIS BROWN FT. USHER & RICK ROSS - NEW FLAME
10-18-22-25-29-33-41-49-53-60-72-80-92-OUT>13

(22) FALL OUT BOY - CENTURIES
22-38-45-52-66-87-OUT>6

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Riser
post Sep 16 2014, 02:05 AM
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(1) CALVIN HARRIS FT. JOHN NEWMAN - BLAME
1-3-3-4-5-8-7-11-14-15-20-22-18-26-27-29-33-30-35-36-39-43-45-48-51-57-60-64-65-59-66-67-73-75-83-86-90-82-85-97-OUT (40 weeks)

(6) TEN WALLS - WALKING WITH ELEPHANTS
6-18-30-28-23-29-35-35-45-50-53-61-66-74-72-88-85-99-OUT (18 weeks)

(10) CHRIS BROWN FT. USHER & RICK ROSS - NEW FLAME
10-11-15-22-23-25-31-29-41-45-51-54-67-63-81-95-OUT (17 weeks)

(22) FALL OUT BOY - CENTURIES
22-30-37-30-25-40-50-66-87-86-OUT (10 weeks)

I'm probably wildly overestimating some of these!
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Rush
post Sep 16 2014, 02:31 AM
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I don't have a clue what I'm doing but I thought I'd try!

Blame:
1-3-4-4-7-10-13-15-16-18-21-22-25-28-29-32-36-40-43-45-49-55-53-60-64-63-67-73-78-80-77-82-85-88-93-97-x-x-98-x-x-x-x-100-97-x -> 39 weeks

Walking With Elephants:
6-15-24-29-37-41-45-49-48-50-52-49-51-55-54-59-62-65-64-70-75-77-82-80-86-94-x -> 26 weeks

New Flame:
10-25-39-55-68-79-85-91-x -> 8 weeks

Centuries:
22-26-28-25-22-21-23-27-30-33-37-40-45-50-56-63-62-70-75-75-81-83-82-88-91-95-97-x-x-100-x -> 28 weeks


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dancember
post Sep 16 2014, 05:46 AM
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QUOTE(hotchoc26 @ Sep 15 2014, 08:25 AM) *
I'm not sure i completely understand your post. Did you mean you suggested predicting any top 40 song regardless of its status? unsure.gif

I've updated the first post rules and example if it helps with all the confusion biggrin.gif

He means it would be far easier if we only had to predict the part of the chart run where the song is in the top 40
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t=SpunderfulXmas
post Sep 16 2014, 08:57 AM
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QUOTE(Therm• @ Sep 16 2014, 06:46 AM) *
He means it would be far easier if we only had to predict the part of the chart run where the song is in the top 40


I wasn't going to consider doing that because it seemed more 'fun' to have to predict the tip 100 runs. I've decided next week to allow predicting ANY debut to the Top 100... yahoo.gif
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t=SpunderfulXmas
post Sep 16 2014, 04:00 PM
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The game is now CLOSED to any new players wanting to predict the singles for Game 1. Remember, the predicted runs will have to wait until both the actual song drops out and the predicted run is predicted to drop out by the player. I plan to upload an image of a table from Excel to show clearly the predicted runs, scores and the actual runs and update them weekly. smile.gif
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t=SpunderfulXmas
post Sep 16 2014, 07:00 PM
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Rush, I've noticed you have predicted re-entries for some of your singles. May I remind you that you only predict up until it drops out for the first time, so your predicted run up until your first 'x' is the run you are playing happy.gif
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