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> How many copies will Take That's III sell in its first week?
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MrIndependent
post Nov 25 2014, 11:54 AM
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Take That's new album III is released next week on 1 December.

The pre-orders for the album and anticipation has noticeably been lower than expected despite Progress's huge 500k+ opening following Robbie's return.

In my opinion I don't think that the general public is very interested in them as a three-piece band, and I wouldn't be surprised if the album sold less than 200k in its opening week. In fact, I wouldn't be shocked if Ed Sheeran kept his biggest opening figure of the year with 182,000 for x.

What do you think?

(I haven't added a poll because they're not very precise and you can only have so many options.)
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jay727
post Nov 25 2014, 12:14 PM
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I think it'll sell 300,000 in the first week. I take your point about the preorders compared to Progress, but even as a 4 they would struggle to match the hype around that era.

It's been 4 years since a studio album, and despite many thinking These Days would struggle in the charts it has surprised everyone. I think demand is still there and as a Xmas present it'll continue to sell consistently at least for the next 4 weeks anyways.

As Pippa mentioned on the TT forum, to be 25 years into their career and still selling out tours, getting top 5 singles and number 1 albums is remarkable.
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britster
post Nov 25 2014, 12:36 PM
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poll?

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ChristmasEve201
post Nov 25 2014, 12:37 PM
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120k or so for me!
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M4NG0
post Nov 25 2014, 12:41 PM
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145k I think
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MrIndependent
post Nov 25 2014, 12:52 PM
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Here are the current positions of the deluxe editions on Amazon and iTunes respectively:

15. III
70. III

The standard versions are somewhere outside the top 100. One thing I'll say is obviously Take That's prime audience are physical buyers rather than digital purchasers, however less than six days before the release of the album these are just not the positions that an album that sells above 200k in its first week achieves.

britster, see the bracketed section of my original post.
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Dobservance
post Nov 25 2014, 12:53 PM
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176k give or take.
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t=SpunderfulXmas
post Nov 25 2014, 02:01 PM
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QUOTE(britster @ Nov 25 2014, 12:36 PM) *
poll?


You can have up to 50 options btw (or is that the max questions? I don't feel like making another poll for the sake of finding out laugh.gif)


This post has been edited by SNOWING ADAM: Nov 25 2014, 05:11 PM
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t=SpunderfulXmas
post Nov 25 2014, 02:01 PM
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126,371
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Michael Bubré
post Nov 25 2014, 04:59 PM
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It says in the first post why there isn't a poll.

QUOTE(MrIndependent @ Nov 25 2014, 11:54 AM) *
(I haven't added a poll because they're not very precise and you can only have so many options.)


I have a feeling this album could still give Ed a run for his money (or 2014 sales record, I'm sure his money is very safe) simply because even with Robbie and Jason gone they surely won't decline THAT much from the opening sales of 'Progress'. 150k minimum I'd say with a chance of 200k+.
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gooddelta
post Nov 25 2014, 05:02 PM
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180k
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gooddelta
post Nov 25 2014, 05:05 PM
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I hope they call it quits in the next few years. It's sad to say this as they're pretty much my favourite band but I'd find it really sad if they eventually went the way of Boyzone and have to resort to cover albums that fail to reach the top ten. They were untouchable in the 90s and they were somehow even bigger between 2006-2010, executing possibly the greatest pop comeback of all time, both in terms of sales and quality.

I feel like that there's not much more mileage left in the story of Take That now (especially with members dropping like flies) and every subsequent release after this one is likely to result in zero hit singles and low selling albums. IMO it would be better to go out on top (for a second time) with a Greatest Hits Volume 2 and a farewell tour in a couple of years and their untouchable legacy would be preserved forever more. Who knows though, I guess the likes of The Rolling Stones and The Who are still very successful touring acts right into their 70s so they could be around for a long time yet.
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Michael Bubré
post Nov 25 2014, 05:13 PM
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What makes you think they'll have no hit singles from future albums when they have a safe top 2 hit this week despite dwindling radio support? They're definitely in decline but it'll be a few albums yet before they drop to the lows that Boyzone have reached, if that's ever going to happen.

Not sure they are going to last much longer anyway though what with Jason leaving. I wonder if Gary Barlow will be able to get anywhere near the success of 'Since I Saw You Last' / 'Let Me Go' if he releases another solo album in the near future...
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jay727
post Nov 25 2014, 05:13 PM
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I think the next album they release will include Jason and Robbie and it'll be Progress hype all over again

This post has been edited by jay727: Nov 25 2014, 05:14 PM
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gooddelta
post Nov 25 2014, 05:17 PM
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QUOTE({ bré } @ Nov 25 2014, 05:13 PM) *
What makes you think they'll have no hit singles from future albums when they have a safe top 2 hit this week despite dwindling radio support? They're definitely in decline but it'll be a few albums yet before they drop to the lows that Boyzone have reached, if that's ever going to happen.


It's alarming to see how quickly the hype has died in four years and it just worries me a bit for the future. An unfortunate niggling feeling tells me that These Days could be their Celebration/All The Lovers type last hurrah in the top three, I guess radio support is only likely to further dwindle for new material going forwards. I hope I'm wrong though.
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Envoirment
post Nov 25 2014, 05:17 PM
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I think it'll well, but not anywhere near Progress. 150-200k
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Kath
post Nov 25 2014, 06:00 PM
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QUOTE(jay727 @ Nov 25 2014, 05:13 PM) *
I think the next album they release will include Jason and Robbie and it'll be Progress hype all over again


I doubt Jason will come back at all. Robbie maybe - but not Jason.

I think III will do around 200K first week.


This post has been edited by Kath: Nov 25 2014, 06:01 PM
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Ethan
post Nov 25 2014, 07:13 PM
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234k
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truly talented
post Nov 25 2014, 07:26 PM
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158k.

I don't know about dwindling radio support. So many artists would give their right arm to get top 5 on Airplay.
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Umi
post Nov 25 2014, 07:31 PM
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QUOTE(gooddelta @ Nov 25 2014, 05:17 PM) *
It's alarming to see how quickly the hype has died in four years and it just worries me a bit for the future. An unfortunate niggling feeling tells me that These Days could be their Celebration/All The Lovers type last hurrah in the top three, I guess radio support is only likely to further dwindle for new material going forwards. I hope I'm wrong though.

Very much agreeing with you on all of this. With Radio 1 no longer on board it's clear the only reason this single is doing well is due to the fact that they are still a really big name, and are following up a hugely successful album in Progress. They won't have that for their post-album singles, or the singles from their next album, so it's diminishing returns from here.

160k first week I think, but in total? 600k maybe.
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