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> Could an X Factor winner ever miss being Xmas no 1 on merit?, not by campaigns and charity singles
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zenon
post Dec 19 2014, 02:18 AM
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I still think Ben will do it this year but with the show's steady declining popularity and streaming now being counted do you think it's now possible that a song can now beat the winning single for Xmas number 1 without the need to be a charity or campaign one?
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BillyH
post Dec 19 2014, 02:38 AM
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As much as it pains me to say it, no.

There's a core few hundred thousand people who will simply buy every winner's single, time after time, year after year - even Sam Bailey's because the man on their TV told them to. That core audience is bigger than the majority of weekly #1 sales for any other week of the year.

If a charity single is released in the Military Wives/Justice Collective style, they'll know weeks in advance and simply move the X Factor release to another week so they still get their #1. It will end when Simon wants it to end, and even if the very concept of talent show TV completely disappears in our lifetime, the Christmas #1's just going to be a permanent dumping ground for identikit charity singles until the end of time or when the concept of a weekly chart is discontinued. The fun is long gone, never to return.

...saying all the above, had you asked me in circa 2007/8 if we'd ever have a non-charity/reality million-selling #1 again, my answer would also have been an easy no, so...
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DanChartFan
post Dec 19 2014, 03:23 AM
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I think that core few hundred thousand people is getting eroded away slightly year on year as the show slowly fades from it's former glory, plus the sales of physicals will drop anyway, since the core people will gradually go over to download/streaming if they haven't already. Then there is streaming, which is more likely to benefit a genuinely listenable track (with possibly many listens per user) than it is a winners single (which is most likely bought then played once or twice before being placed on a shelf to gather dust). All things considered I think it is very likely that there will come a time when genuine tracks (non xfactor/charity/campaign) will once again battle for xmas #1, indeed I see Mark Ronson is now ahead of Ben on the itunes chart, but given how late into the week that reversal of fortunes is, and remembering to add in the physicals for Ben (and I'm assuming either no physicals or a modest number of 12"s for Ronson) and I don't think it will happen this year. But maybe, just maybe, in the next few years......
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andibob
post Dec 19 2014, 08:33 AM
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QUOTE(BillyH @ Dec 19 2014, 02:38 AM) *
There's a core few hundred thousand people who will simply buy every winner's single, time after time, year after year - even Sam Bailey's because the man on their TV told them to.

I actually quite like Sam Bailey. She is one of the only contestants who actually sounded amazing each week without a load of crap behind her. Her music may not be "current" and her album is full of covers but I'd prefer to listen to her than some other winners. She absolutely nailed it at London Pride this year.
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richie
post Dec 19 2014, 08:56 AM
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I think another question is: "Could an X Factor winner ever be number one on merit?"

Instead of being released the week after the show, couldn't a talented singer / songwriter be given time to go off and polish up one of their own songs for release in the Spring and then see if, once the hype has died down a bit, they still manage to make it?

Highly unlikely because in the world of business you have to strike while the hype is hot. Hence we get an immediate number one cover of a song that is bland, safe and recent enough not to stop the viewers buying it. And the fall is just as quick, if not quicker, for the winners. They get a couple more hits, a poor album and are virtually dropped by the time the next series starts.
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gooddelta
post Dec 19 2014, 09:13 AM
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It will only happen if somebody puts a monster record out on Xmas week. If some massively hyped song like Wake Me Up! had been saved for Xmas week last year for example, it would have beaten Sam Bailey on merit. But Billy is correct, Simon and the producers will know if they've got a realistic shot at Xmas No.1 and if they haven't, due to some charity release etc..., they'll just shove the release forward or back a week to save face.

That said, Ben seems like a relatively popular winner and 'only' seems on course for 200k, so if somebody like Nicholas MacDonald were to slip through the net and win one year and sell 100k, potentially some normal release could beat it, but it's unlikely as nobody releases anything in December anymore due to X Factor's dominance - it's a vicious cycle.
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pippa
post Dec 19 2014, 09:33 AM
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QUOTE(andibob @ Dec 19 2014, 08:33 AM) *
I actually quite like Sam Bailey. She is one of the only contestants who actually sounded amazing each week without a load of crap behind her. Her music may not be "current" and her album is full of covers but I'd prefer to listen to her than some other winners. She absolutely nailed it at London Pride this year.


Me too, and Sam is great, Sam was not to everyone's taste but people should not assume people only bought the track as she was the winner. I am an X Factor fan but only buy the winners songs that i like. The only years i did not like as i did not like the song were Steve Brookstein, Joe McEldery, Leon Jackson and Little Mix. From those 4, i did go on to purchase further Little Mix material, i simply did not like their version of Cannonball but bought no material from the other 3 mentioned.
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torresgirl
post Dec 19 2014, 11:02 AM
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QUOTE(pippa @ Dec 19 2014, 09:33 AM) *
Me too, and Sam is great, Sam was not to everyone's taste but people should not assume people only bought the track as she was the winner. I am an X Factor fan but only buy the winners songs that i like. The only years i did not like as i did not like the song were Steve Brookstein, Joe McEldery, Leon Jackson and Little Mix. From those 4, i did go on to purchase further Little Mix material, i simply did not like their version of Cannonball but bought no material from the other 3 mentioned.


Exactly this. I only bought it if I liked the song and the winner not simply because they won. I'm thinking would be the same for most people.
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slowdown73
post Dec 19 2014, 01:08 PM
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Yes, I think it can happen and will happen at some point but only if its against a very popular song.
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slowdown73
post Dec 19 2014, 01:52 PM
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If uptown funk had been up against last year's winner Sam Bailey then there is a real chance he could have been no1.
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PuppiesAre4Ever
post Dec 19 2014, 01:54 PM
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a plain and simple 'no'

unless there's a big charity record around, the x factor winner will pretty much (by default) own the "christmas #1" until the show eventually comes to an end
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fchd
post Dec 19 2014, 02:13 PM
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I don't know "by merit" and "charity singles" are necessarily exclusive. I think a lot of the sales of "Wherever You Are" where because people liked the song rather than the fact it was raising money for two charities.
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Eric_Blob
post Dec 19 2014, 04:48 PM
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I think it's possible. Look at how the group charity single declined in sales, the 2008 one had huge sales, but by 2011 the sales were a lot lower. If they were still releasing the group charity singles, they'd probably be missing #1 (which is probably why they stopped doing them). laugh.gif

Also, streaming is going to have a bigger weight in the future. At the moment streaming makes up about 55% of "sales", but by this time next year it could be 65%+ as the figure is rising fast, and this will hurt X Factor singles I think.

So I think they could miss #1 eventually, especially if the show will still be going on 2017 and later. What they might do is have them perform original songs, and try harder to give them good songs since then they'll get streamed more.

I'm not one of those people who hates all reality shows and hates all covers, but the X Factor ones are usually quite poor. They get completely different songs and somehow manage to make them all sound the same as each other, the production is nearly always boring, with a cheesy key change at the end. If they actually gave them good songs (like Sound Of the Underground) then they might manage to keep getting Christmas #1s.
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ChristmasEve201
post Dec 19 2014, 09:49 PM
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Simon Cowell is the king of making crap sell look at Robson and Jerome, the power ranger etc!
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Suedehead2
post Dec 19 2014, 10:53 PM
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QUOTE(torresgirl @ Dec 19 2014, 11:02 AM) *
Exactly this. I only bought it if I liked the song and the winner not simply because they won. I'm thinking would be the same for most people.

Me too. I have only bought an X Factor winner's single if I liked it. So far, I have none.
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Doctor Blind
post Dec 20 2014, 12:33 PM
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It happened in Ireland yesterday. "Uptown Funk" climbed to #1 preventing the X-Factor from claiming the Christmas Number One for the first time there since 2005.
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Hayzayy
post Dec 20 2014, 12:41 PM
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QUOTE(richie @ Dec 19 2014, 08:56 AM) *
Instead of being released the week after the show, couldn't a talented singer / songwriter be given time to go off and polish up one of their own songs for release in the Spring and then see if, once the hype has died down a bit, they still manage to make it?
Highly unlikely because in the world of business you have to strike while the hype is hot.


Actually that's what happens in a lot of countries. Here in France I don't remember any talent show winner releasing a single straight after the show. Here they always go in the studio and come back months later with a single and an album (and not a cover).
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Dobservance
post Dec 20 2014, 12:48 PM
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Given Uptown Funk's lead on iTunes now & the fact it was "only" 37k behind on Wednesday, add to that it will have a massive streaming advantage, is it safe to say it's still not a foregone conclusion for tomorrow?
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Doctor Blind
post Dec 20 2014, 12:56 PM
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QUOTE(Dobbo @ Dec 20 2014, 12:48 PM) *
Given Uptown Funk's lead on iTunes now & the fact it was "only" 37k behind on Wednesday, add to that it will have a massive streaming advantage, is it safe to say it's still not a foregone conclusion for tomorrow?


Hmm, I think it is. It will be the closest since 2009 - when of course X-Factor lost out. Ben 'only' sold 23K physicals on Wednesday and Thursday combined so the physical advantage of X-Factor is almost completely wiped out this year. *Celebrates*
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slowdown73
post Dec 20 2014, 01:15 PM
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QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Dec 20 2014, 12:33 PM) *
It happened in Ireland yesterday. "Uptown Funk" climbed to #1 preventing the X-Factor from claiming the Christmas Number One for the first time there since 2005.


That's great news - there is hope at last of an end to a decade of awful x factor Christmas number ones.
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