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> Eurovision Song Contest 2015 · Odds, A race between Sweden, Russia and Italy?
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Ryan.
post Jan 16 2015, 11:48 PM
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It's of course incredibly early to start looking at odds, but we do start to see potential hype even at this early stage! The reason I'm opening this now as the first set of "proper" odds (not Betfair Exchange) have just been published by Betfred.

As you'd probably predict the usually successful countries are at the top with one exception of Estonia:

10/1 - Estonia, Greece, Sweden, Azerbaijan
14/1 - Serbia, Armenia, Norway
16/1 - Denmark

All the odds have remained the same since first published a couple of days ago except for Estonia who were at 16/1 and are now up with the predictable leaders. Elina & Stig really have managed to create a lot of hype - over 100,000 YouTube views in a week! ohmy.gif

Once the odds start moving properly then I'll post proper updates, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Finland (currently at 33/1) start to drop in price as I sense hype with Satin Circus. Also Czech Republic can be found at 25/1 surprisingly! kink.gif
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LexC
post Jan 17 2015, 12:03 AM
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Just want to say this from the off that shortening odds only means that people are putting more money behind said entry winning rather than being organised by a super expert. Most people on here are generally fine in that regard but people on twitter/the Euroblogs really irritate me sometimes because they don't know how betting odds work.
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Qassändra
post Jan 17 2015, 01:26 AM
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It's also worth remembering that at this stage, all it literally takes is one or two medium bets to shift the odds. Latvia dropped from 100/1 to 66/1 instantly when I put on £30 after I first heard Saule riet.
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gooddelta
post Jan 19 2015, 07:30 PM
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£30! Why on earth did you put that much trust in the Latvian voting public?
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Qassändra
post Jan 19 2015, 07:32 PM
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I managed to unwind it after, but given the hype around it (especially compared to bloody Cake To Bake...) while Latvia were at odds of about 100/1 it looked like an absolute *steal* of an each way.
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Ryan.
post Jan 20 2015, 06:03 PM
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I'll copy these over now from the 2014 thread so I don't forget about them, here are the odds for the top 10/15 from around a month before each contest according to previous topics in the forum! I've added in artist/song names and eventual finishing positions for some extra fun! Always very interesting reading. tongue.gif

2014
QUOTE(Ryan. @ Apr 7 2014, 05:03 PM) *
01. 6/4 Armenia (Aram MP3 - Not Alone) 4th
02. 11/2 Sweden (Sanna Nielsen - Undo) 3rd
03. 12/1 Denmark (Basim - Cliché Love Song) 9th
04. 12/1 Norway (Carl Espen - Silent Storm) 8th
05. 18/1 Hungary (Andrįs Kįllay-Saunders - Running) 5th
06. 20/1 United Kingdom (Molly - Children Of The Universe) 17th
07. 20/1 Ukraine (Mariya Yaremchuk - Tick-Tock) 6th
08. 20/1 Azerbaijan (Dilara Kazimova - Start A Fire) 22nd
09. 25/1 Belgium (Axel Hirsoux - Mother) 14th (SF)
10. 25/1 Romania (Paula Seling & OVI - Miracle) 12th
11. 40/1 Russia (Tolmachevy Sisters - Shine) 7th
12. 66/1 Italy (Emma Marrone - La Mia Cittą) 21st
13. 66/1 Greece (Freaky Fortune feat. Risky Kidd - Rise Up) 20th
14. 66/1 Israel (Mei Finegold - Same Heart) 14th (SF)
15. 66/1 Ireland (Can-Linn feat. Kasey Smith - Heartbeat) 12th (SF)

(Oddschecker)


2013
QUOTE(Ryan. @ Apr 18 2013, 06:06 PM) *
01. 6/4 Denmark (Emmelie de Forest - Only Teardrops) 1st
02. 8/1 Norway (Margaret Berger - I Feed You My Love) 4th
03. 12/1 Ukraine (Zlata Ognevich - Gravity) 3rd
04. 16/1 Russia (Dina Garipova - What If) 5th
05. 16/1 Sweden (Robin Stjernberg - You) 14th
06. 19/1 The Netherlands (Anouk - Birds) 9th
07. 25/1 Germany (Cascada - Glorious) 21st
08. 25/1 Georgia (Nodi Tatishvili & Sophie Gelovani - Waterfall) 15th
09. 25/1 Italy (Marco Mengoni - L'Essenziale) 7th
10. 33/1 Azerbaijan (Farid Mammadov - Hold Me) 2nd
11. 40/1 San Marino (Valentina Monetta - Crisalide (Vola)) 11th (SF)
12. 50/1 United Kingdom (Bonnie Tyler - Believe In Me) 19th
13. 66/1 Ireland (Ryan Dolan - Only Love Survives) 26th
14. 66/1 Belarus (Alyona Lanskaya - Solayoh) 16th
15. 75/1 Greece (Koza Mostra feat. Agathon Iakovidis - Alcohol Is Free) 6th

(Oddschecker)


2012
QUOTE(David @ Apr 25 2012, 11:52 AM) *
01. 9/4 Sweden (Loreen - Euphoria) 1st
02. 8/1 Italy (Nina Zilli - L'amore č femmina (Out Of Love)) 9th
03. 10/1 Russia (Buranovskiye Babushki - Party For Everybody) 2nd
04. 11/1 Serbia (ˇeljko Joksimović - Nije Ljubav Stvar) 3rd
05. 14/1 Denmark (Soluna Samay - Should've Known Better) 23rd
06. 14/1 United Kingdom (Engelbert Humperdinck - Love Will Set You Free) 25th
07. 16/1 Ireland (Jedward - Waterline) 19th
08. 18/1 Spain (Pastora Soler - Quédate Conmigo (Stay With Me)) 10th
09. 20/1 Germany (Roman Lob - Standing Still) 8th
10. 20/1 Norway (Tooji - Stay) 26th
11. 22/1 Iceland (Gréta Salóme and Jónsi - Never Forget) 20th
12. 25/1 Greece (Eleftheria Eleftheriou - Aphrodisiac) 17th
13. 28/1 Romania (Mandinga - Zaleilah) 12th
14. 28/1 Turkey (Can Bonomo - Love Me Back) 7th
15. 33/1 Cyprus (Ivi Adamou - La La Love) 16th

(Sky Bet)


2011
QUOTE(Pop B!tch @ Apr 24 2011, 08:45 PM) *
01. 4/1 France (Amaury Vassili - Sognu) 15th
02. 13/2 Estonia (Getter Jaani - Rockefeller Street) 24th
03. 7/1 United Kingdom (Blue - I Can) 11th
04. 8/1 Hungary (Kati Wolf - What About My Dreams?) 22nd
05. 10/1 Sweden (Eric Saade - Popular) 3rd
06. 10/1 Bosnia & Herzegovina (Dino Merlin - Love In Rewind) 6th
07. 12/1 Azerbaijan (Ell & Nikki - Running Scared) 1st
08. 12/1 Norway (Stella Mwangi - Haba Haba) 17th (SF)
09. 12/1 Germany (Lena - Taken By A Stranger) 10th
10. 20/1 Russia (Alexej Vorobjov - Get You) 16th
11. 20/1 Ireland (Jedward - Lipstick) 8th
12. 20/1 Denmark (A Friend In London - New Tomorrow) 5th
13. 33/1 Italy (Raphael Gualazzi - Madness Of Love) 2nd
14. 40/1 Romania (Hotel FM - Change) 17th
15. 40/1 Poland (Magdalena Tul - Jestem) 19th (SF)

(Paddy Power)
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Ryan.
post Jan 20 2015, 06:03 PM
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2010
QUOTE(gooddelta @ May 6 2010, 11:36 AM) *
01. 5/2 Germany (Lena - Satellite) 1st
02. 5/2 Azerbaijan (Safura - Drip Drop) 5th
03. 8/1 Denmark (Chanée & N'evergreen - In A Moment Like This) 4th
04. 8/1 Israel (Harel Skaat - Milim) 14th
05. 14/1 Armenia (Eva Rivas - Apricot Stone) 7th
06. 16/1 Croatia (Feminnem - Lako Je Sve) 13th (SF)
07. 20/1 Norway (Didrik Solli-Tangen - My Heart Is Yours) 20th
08. 22/1 Sweden (Anna Bergendahl - This Is My Life) 11th (SF)
09. 25/1 Ireland (Niamh Kavanagh - It's For You) 23rd
10. 28/1 Greece (Giorgos Alkaios and Friends - OPA) 8th

(William Hill)


2009
QUOTE(David @ Apr 7 2009, 12:16 AM) *
01. 6/4 Norway (Alexander Rybak - Fairytale) 1st
02. 9/2 Greece (Sakis Rouvas - This Is Our Night) 7th
03. 8/1 Turkey (Hadise - Düm Tek Tek) 4th
04. 8/1 Montenegro (Andrea Demirović - Just Get Out Of My Life) 11th (SF)
05. 10/1 Azerbaijan (AySel and Arash - Always) 3rd
06. 12/1 Sweden (Malena Ernman - La Voix) 21st
07. 14/1 Malta (Chiara - What If We?) 22nd
08. 18/1 United Kingdom (Jade Ewen - It's My Time) 5th
09. 25/1 Estonia (Urban Symphony - Rändajad) 6th
10. 25/1 Bosnia & Herzegovina (Regina - Bistra Voda) 9th
11. 25/1 France (Patricia Kaas - Et S'il Fallait Le Faire) 8th
12. 25/1 Spain (Soraya - La Noche Es Para Mķ (The Night Is For Me)) 24th
13. 25/1 Russia (Anastasiya Prikhodko - Mamo) 11th
14. 33/1 Finland (Waldo's People - Lose Control) 25th
15. 33/1 Iceland (Yohanna - Is It True?) 2nd

(Paddy Power)


2008
QUOTE(David @ Apr 23 2008, 10:40 PM) *
01. 7/2 Russia (Dima Bilan - Believe) 1st
02. 9/2 Serbia (Jelena Tomašević feat. Bora Dugić - Oro) 6th
03. 5/1 Ireland (Dustin The Turkey - Irelande Douze Pointe) 15th (SF)
04. 11/2 Armenia (Sirusho - Qele, Qele) 4th
05. 7/1 Ukraine (Ani Lorak - Shady Lady) 2nd
06. 9/1 Sweden (Charlotte Perrelli - Hero) 18th
07. 18/1 Bulgaria (Deep Zone and Balthazar - DJ, Take Me Away) 11th (SF)
08. 20/1 Greece (Kalomira - Secret Combination) 3rd
09. 20/1 Spain (Rodolfo Chikilicuatre - Baila El Chiki-Chiki) 16th
10. 22/1 France (Sébastian Tellier) 19th
11. 25/1 Bosnia & Herzegovina (Laka - Pokušaj) 10th
12. 25/1 Latvia (Pirates Of The Sea - Wolves Of The Sea) 12th
13. 25/1 Turkey (Mor ve Ötesi - Deli) 7th
14. 25/1 Switzerland (Paolo Meneguzzi - Era Stupendo) 13th (SF)
15. 25/1 Romania (Nico and Vlad - Pe-o Margine de Lume) 20th

(Paddy Power)


2007
QUOTE(David @ Apr 16 2007, 09:54 PM) *
01. 5/1 Switzerland (DJ Bobo - Vampires Are Alive) 20th (SF)
02. 7/1 Sweden (The Ark - The Worrying Kind) 18th
03. 8/1 Serbia (Marija Šerifović - Molitva) 1st
04. 8/1 Belarus (Koldun - Work Your Magic) 6th
05. 11/1 Ukraine (Verka Serduchka - Dancing Lasha Tumbai) 2nd
06. 11/1 Bulgaria (Elitsa Todorova and Stoyan Yankoulov - Water) 5th
07. 12/1 Russia (Serebro - Song #1) 3rd
08. 14/1 Greece (Sarbel - Yassou Maria) 7th
09. 16/1 Romania (Todomondo - Liubi, Liubi, I Love You) 13th
10. 16/1 Cyprus (Evridiki - Comme ci, Comme ēa) 15th (SF)
11. 20/1 Slovenia (Alenka Gotar - Cvet Z Juga) 15th
12. 20/1 United Kingdom (Scooch - Flying The Flag (For You)) 22nd
13. 20/1 Malta (Olivia Lewis - Vertigo) 25th (SF)
14. 25/1 Latvia (Bonaparti.lv - Questa Notte) 16th
15. 25/1 Spain (D'NASH - I Love You Mi Vida) 20th

(Paddy Power)


It's crazy when you compare 2014 to the rest in that neither of the top 2 were in the top 15 just a month before the contest! laugh.gif Never realised Montenegro were so fancied in 2009 either.
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gooddelta
post Jan 20 2015, 08:43 PM
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DJ Bobo was robbed!

Those 2011 odds *.* Everyone was SO wrong! I still think Blue should have been top five at least though, as they were on the televote. For me it's still one of the most memorable songs from that year, Popular and Jedward (sad.gif) being by far the most memorable.
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Ryan.
post Jan 26 2015, 06:16 PM
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Of course as we know any small bets make a huge difference at this point, but as I expected Finland's odds have been slashed a couple of times now - down to 10/1 and joint 2nd favourite behind Estonia who are now down to just 7/1! Presumably this is due to Satin Circus, but they are only 2nd favourites to win the Finnish selection according to Unibet, the favourites being Pertti Kurikan Nimipaivat.
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Ryan.
post Feb 3 2015, 10:20 PM
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Estonia as low as 9/2 now, Finland down to 5/1 and Sweden down to 8/1. No change anywhere else except Switzerland are down to 20/1 suggesting they have a little bit more support than the other selected entries so far (but of course the market is very slow at the moment).
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Ryan.
post Feb 11 2015, 10:14 PM
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Betfred now have Estonia and Australia as joint 9/2 favourites! happy.gif
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dancember
post Feb 11 2015, 10:32 PM
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Australia as the fave even without their entry or artist revealed.

Slay.
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Tom Kay Cat 🐱
post Feb 12 2015, 01:09 PM
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To be fair, Estonia's hasn't been either. Why are they getting such short odds?
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Qassändra
post Feb 12 2015, 02:47 PM
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QUOTE(Tom Moroder Kay @ Feb 12 2015, 02:09 PM) *
To be fair, Estonia's hasn't been either. Why are they getting such short odds?

The one in their NF that sounds like the Common Linnets has got early favourite status.
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Ryan.
post Feb 12 2015, 04:50 PM
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The only similarity Elina & Stig have to The Common Linnets is the fact it's a mixed duo but apart from that they aren't that similar - 'Goodbye To Yesterday' reminds me more of Gotye's 'Somebody That I Used To Know' than it does of 'Calm After The Storm'. However yes they have got a lot of hype, they are nearly at one million YouTube views in just 6 weeks which I believe is unprecedented for an Eesti Laul entry! Although the Estonian jury aren't very reliable so I very much doubt they will win.
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Ryan.
post Mar 6 2015, 09:06 PM
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More and more bookmakers are putting their odds up now so we are beginning to get a bit more of a clearer picture. Italy are still favourites at around the 2/1 mark but over the last few days Estonia have been shortening across the board and now down to around the 3/1 mark.

Finland who had moved up to 2nd have started to drop, out to 7/1 at a couple of places, but Sweden are picking up momentum who are between 5 and 10/1. Australia are around 12s and 14s now after their artist announcement.
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Ryan.
post Mar 11 2015, 02:38 PM
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Slovenia's odds are continuing to shorten quickly today, they are now comfortably fifth favourites to win! cheer.gif
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Ryan.
post Mar 14 2015, 11:11 PM
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About time for our first complete odds update I think! cheer.gif As always, these are the best odds available according to Oddschecker.

01 | 05/2 | Italy · Il Volo - Grande Amore
02 | 04/1 | Sweden · Måns Zelmerlöw - Heroes
03 | 04/1 | Estonia · Elina Born & Stig Rästa - Goodbye To Yesterday
04 | 10/1 | Finland · Pertti Kurikan Nimipäivät - Aina Mun Pitää
05 | 10/1 | Slovenia · Maraaya - Here For You
06 | 16/1 | Norway · Mųrland & Debrah Scarlett - A Monster Like Me
07 | 16/1 | Australia · Guy Sebastian - TBA
08 | 25/1 | Azerbaijan · TBA
09 | 25/1 | United Kingdom · Electro Velvet - Still In Love With You
10 | 25/1 | Armenia · Genealogy - Don't Deny

11 | 33/1 | Belgium · Loļc Nottet - Rhythm Inside
12 | 33/1 | Spain · Edurne - Amanecer
13 | 33/1 | Greece · Maria-Eleni Kyriakou - One Last Breath
14 | 40/1 | Russia · Polina Gagarina - A Million Voices
15 | 50/1 | Latvia · Aminata - Love Injected
16 | 50/1 | Austria · The Makemakes - I Am Yours
17 | 50/1 | Switzerland · Mélanie René - Time To Shine
18 | 50/1 | Malta · Amber - Warrior
19 | 50/1 | Cyprus · John Karayiannis - One Thing I Should Have Done
20 | 50/1 | Romania · Voltaj - De La Capăt

Above 50/1...

066/1 | Iceland · France · Hungary · Germany · The Netherlands · Serbia · Ireland
080/1 | Lithuania
100/1 | Poland · Montenegro · Israel · Belarus · Denmark · San Marino · Czech Republic · F.Y.R. Macedonia · Moldova · Portugal · Georgia
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AdamAloud
post Mar 14 2015, 11:13 PM
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Iceland and Georgia are fantastic each way bets there! ohmy.gif
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gooddelta
post Mar 16 2015, 01:23 PM
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Sweden really need to move in front, in what world is Italy going to win exactly?
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