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> The Weather of 2015 Thread, MILD MILD MILD MILD MILD and MILD.
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Doctor Blind
post Jan 23 2015, 06:17 PM
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Summary: Changeable and cool, then significant pattern change from next Wednesday.

Detailed Synopsis: On Monday evening −13.7C was recorded over the snowfields at Loch Glascarnoch in Highland, the lowest temperature recorded in the UK since February 2012. This morning temperatures widely fell across England to between −6C and −8C. The coldest spell of the Winter so far, and indeed the coldest spell UK-wide since April 2013 which will come to an abrupt end tonight as an occluding frontal system moves erratically SE bringing slightly less cold air temporarily to all parts. Incidentally this front will go on to bring widespread snowfalls to Belgium, the Netherlands and Germany during daytime tomorrow. However, a brief shot of cold Arctic Maritime airmass will push south across Scotland and N Ireland for a time tomorrow morning bringing a return to occasional rain/sleet/snow showers with snow not limited to, but mostly above 100M. However, across SE Scotland and much of England and Wales a fine Winter's day with unbroken sunshine dawn to dusk, these conditions transferring to even N Scotland by the end of the day as the unstable showery stream pushes away towards Norway.

Later on Saturday, much warmer air of Tropical Maritime origin will surge NE continuing through Sunday - bringing strong winds and some rain, mainly to western coasts and hills of Scotland and N Ireland - but very much warmer temperatures of 9C to 11C here. Further south, a little cooler and less windy but cloudier than Saturday. A cold front will then move SE on Sunday night bringing more extensive rain and drizzle, becoming slow moving across England and Wales on Monday daytime but bringing clearer, showery conditions to the north.

Further outlook: From Wednesday onwards, marked troughing in the flow (in response to ridging out in the mid-Atlantic) with the jet driving SE into Central Europe brings a major pattern change for the end of the week. This will encourage much colder air to move south across Scotland first, and then later all parts of the UK. This could potentially mean a very cold and disturbed end to the month with the chance of some significant snow in the north and east. Yesterday's 12Z EC showed a low driving SE across England and Wales through Saturday bringing a covering of 5-8cm quite widely and this will need careful watching over the next few days.


This post has been edited by Doctor Blind: Dec 15 2015, 07:23 PM
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Doctor Blind
post Jan 25 2015, 01:06 PM
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The Met Office have now issued a warning for snow valid from 1500 on Wednesday for N Ireland N and W Scotland, as well as NW England:

QUOTE
A cold and increasingly showery northwesterly flow is expected to develop during Wednesday and last through Thursday. Accumulating snow is likely away from windward coastal districts, especially overnight, with 2-5 cm locally at low levels. Higher ground, above about 150 m, could see in excess of 10 cm. Strong and gusty winds will likely accompany snow showers, and lead to significantly reduced visibility at times.

An active cold front is expected to push southeast across the UK during Wednesday introducing an increasingly cold and unstable air mass. Showers will become frequent and heavy, increasingly falling as snow in the north and west, and driven well inland by strong to gale force northwesterly winds. Accumulating snow is likely, especially overnight.

This warning will be updated on Monday.


The risk of a more organised spell of snow next Saturday is less likely now, around 20-30% of ensemble members go for that. However, very much colder air of sub 522DM thickness will cover the whole UK on Thursday meaning any precipitation will be falling as snow, except around sw coasts.
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Suedehead2
post Jan 25 2015, 01:07 PM
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QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Jan 25 2015, 01:06 PM) *
The Met Office have now issued a warning for snow valid from 1500 on Wednesday for N Ireland N and W Scotland, as well as NW England:
The risk of a more organised spell of snow next Saturday is less likely now, around 20-30% of ensemble members go for that. However, very much colder air of sub 522DM thickness will cover the whole UK on Thursday meaning any precipitation will be falling as snow, except around sw coasts.

How does a spell of snow get to be organised? Who organises it?
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Riser
post Mar 3 2015, 11:36 PM
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Thought I'd share a couple of my pictures!



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CodySleighBell-y
post Mar 3 2015, 11:49 PM
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Seeing snow two months ago in SoCal was like jumping inside Frozen heart.gif Seeing snow there now just feels like hell sad.gif
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Suedehead2
post Mar 4 2015, 12:32 AM
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My two-year-old niece helped to build her first snowman this year. It was comfortably shorter than she is and it used up most of the snow in my brother's garden. That shows how little snow there has been in southern England.
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dhwe
post Mar 4 2015, 02:09 AM
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We've seen a good amount of snow here in Pennsylvania but nowhere near what Arendelle Boston has seen. It's been brutally cold though— -4 F/-20 C here at one point, even colder further inland/north.
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Candlelit Snow
post Mar 4 2015, 04:51 AM
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QUOTE(Riser @ Mar 4 2015, 12:36 AM) *
Thought I'd share a couple of my pictures!






Thees is what happens when snow gets organeesed!!

So glad not in the U.S!! mellow.gif mellow.gif

That weather's meant for Canada!!
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JSG
post Mar 4 2015, 05:17 AM
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It snowed regularly here in Ayr during Monday. That's the first time this winter cheer.gif I can't help but get a little excited when I see a single flake tbh.
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JSG
post Jun 8 2015, 06:16 PM
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The graph below Represents the highest temperatures recorded last year and this year day by day in my current location (This year is in blue) You can see that temps were on par with last year up until about two months ago and it's been quite cool since then. Hopefully summer shows its ass soon.



This post has been edited by JSG: Jun 8 2015, 06:16 PM
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t=SpunderfulXmas
post Jun 8 2015, 07:07 PM
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All hot and sunny down here in Cornwall! cheer.gif sunbathing weather cool2.gif
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ChristmasEve201
post Jun 8 2015, 07:37 PM
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The suns out in Belfast and it's warm but temp is only 15 degrees cos of the north westerly airflow! A southerly airflow would see temps 10 degrees higher in June!
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Harve
post Jun 9 2015, 07:06 PM
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How has it taken me the 2nd half of the year to post in here~

Belgium is hardly exotic but the weather after April or so is SO much more reliable than the Peak District or Glasgow and it's each day seemingly has 8+ hours of sun without fail. Frontal rain just doesn't seem to happen in the summer. Although last Friday it went a bit too far when it reached 34c. :|
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ChristmasEve201
post Jun 9 2015, 09:29 PM
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Fizzles out over the uk and stays dry and hot there!!
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JSG
post Jun 10 2015, 04:23 AM
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Even Edinburgh and the east coast gets it better then the erst coast. It'd a pain ha!
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Mack'sXmasSack
post Jun 11 2015, 03:54 PM
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Thunderstorms due in the next couple of days around the UK.

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Doctor Blind
post Jun 11 2015, 05:56 PM
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Leuchars in Fife was the warmest place in the UK yesterday with 23.1C, and its not often ski-resort Aviemore takes second place with 22.8C.

Warmer today in the south however, and a little warmer still tomorrow as higher thicknesses are advected north out of France- I expect somewhere like Heathrow or Northolt will push 27C.

Btw, regarding tomorrow - there is a warning in force
QUOTE
Isolated severe thunderstorms seem likely to develop on Friday, these succeeded by a band of more widespread heavy rain and occasional thunderstorms, moving gradually north later in the day, affecting much of the highlighted region into the early hours of Saturday morning. The public should be aware that there is a chance of some very localised significant disruption, mainly from surface water flooding. Lightning and hail could also cause some impacts.

An area of warm, very humid air is expected to move northwards across France into southern Britain later on Thursday and into Friday. Whilst isolated thunderstorms are possible from Thursday, these become more likely and potentially more severe by Friday afternoon, with the potential for 20 to 30 mm falling within an hour or so, probably on a very localised basis. Indications are that a more organised band of heavy rain and thunderstorms will follow by Friday evening and overnight into Saturday, bringing 25 to 50 mm of rain more widely, again with the potential for some very high short-period totals.


Worst of the torrential downpours appears to be favoured across Wales and parts of SW England - an isolated tornado is possible given low condensation levels and good low-level shear.


This post has been edited by Doctor Blind: Jun 11 2015, 05:57 PM
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ChristmasEve201
post Jun 11 2015, 08:56 PM
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It doesn't surprise me that some of those shelter Scottish Central areas are getting good temps as the heat builds up here. You can feel we are coming close to thunderstorm time as the heat has in increased all week!
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5 Silas Frøkner
post Jun 13 2015, 03:17 PM
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QUOTE(JSG @ Jun 10 2015, 05:23 AM) *
Even Edinburgh and the east coast gets it better then the erst coast. It'd a pain ha!

Of course we do! We're by far the best coast.

QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Jun 11 2015, 06:56 PM) *
Leuchars in Fife was the warmest place in the UK yesterday with 23.1C, and its not often ski-resort Aviemore takes second place with 22.8C.

It was f***ing roasting here Wednesday and Thursday. Absolutely beautiful. Can't believe we were the warmest place in the UK. Especially being on the coast with the North Sea breeze.
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bipolar angel
post Jun 13 2015, 05:55 PM
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we had rain and even a storm last night.

quite a welcome surprise
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