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> OPINION POLLS III · Yay, democracy!, Everything you thought you knew about polls is wrong
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Brett-Butler
post Mar 30 2015, 05:16 PM
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Now that parliament has been dissolved, it's time for a new thread to begin (plus the last thread was getting a bit big for its boots).

Here's the current polling, taking from today's (30/3/15) BBC poll of polls:

Lab 34%
Con 34%
UKIP 13%
Lib Dem 8%
Other 6%
Green 5%
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Danny
post Mar 31 2015, 01:41 PM
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The election now plastered all over the media, so I kind of think we could see a decisive shift in the polls in the coming days. I actually think a lot of people until now were not even aware an election was coming.

Imo, most likely is a shift to the Tories, quite possibly into a majority-winning position, as the many people who prefer Dave as PM move over, especially since people still perceive little difference between the two parties on policy so they'll figure they may as well go with the leader who "looks the part" and will "stand up to Putin" the best.

On the other hand, less likely, people getting into an election mindset could mean the many people who are terrified of a Tory government (which still outnumbers people who are terrified of a Labour government) rally round Labour, squeezing down the Green, "Labour-Kipper" and non-votes columns.
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Qassändra
post Mar 31 2015, 02:36 PM
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Given most of our media messaging (billboards, PPBs) at the moment is focused more on solidifying the Labour-inclined vote than winning over switchers, I'd guess we're aiming for the latter. Ed's going all out for the 35% strategy *.*

Ed's ratings are going right up though - he's narrowing the gap on things like best PM, and he's only net -9 on 'Capable of being Prime Minister' at the moment, which is pretty damn good with six weeks to go considering where he was a few months ago. When it comes down to it, I don't think enough people feel threatened enough by Putin currently (touch wood) for that to be the big question on their mind in the polling booths that decides the election.

Also there's been a pretty big shift on 'I have a good idea of what he stands for' for Ed too. If it carries on, I can't see people seeing both Labour and the Tories as the same on policy by the election. Not that I think many do now - I think it's just more a case of people not knowing where to begin in deciding which they'd prefer out of the two prospectuses.
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Danny
post Mar 31 2015, 02:52 PM
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QUOTE(Qassändra @ Mar 31 2015, 03:36 PM) *
Given most of our media messaging (billboards, PPBs) at the moment is focused more on solidifying the Labour-inclined vote than winning over switchers, I'd guess we're aiming for the latter. Ed's going all out for the 35% strategy *.*

Ed's ratings are going right up though - he's narrowing the gap on things like best PM, and he's only net -9 on 'Capable of being Prime Minister' at the moment, which is pretty damn good with six weeks to go considering where he was a few months ago. When it comes down to it, I don't think enough people feel threatened enough by Putin currently (touch wood) for that to be the big question on their mind in the polling booths that decides the election.

Also there's been a pretty big shift on 'I have a good idea of what he stands for' for Ed too. If it carries on, I can't see people seeing both Labour and the Tories as the same on policy by the election. Not that I think many do now - I think it's just more a case of people not knowing where to begin in deciding which they'd prefer out of the two prospectuses.


Well, yes, but Miliband's personal beliefs are a different thing to people thinking the policies are actually different. You're right that people seem to be finally starting to believe Ed as a man stands for something and that he personally cares about the poor (whereas previously people just thought he was a career politician who believed in nothing), but - anecdote alert - people still don't seem to think there'd be any difference between the Tories and Labour in what they'd actually do. People don't have the loony-leftie view that I have that Labour are purposely choosing to sign up to needless austerity - the consensus seems to be that there's no money "available" for Ed to do anything differently to the Tories even if he wanted to. Unless Labour counter that and try to dispute the belief that cuts don't have to be inevitable, they're screwed, because it will mean the battleground gets shrunk down to "best statesman" since they'd believe there was only possible course on economic policies (irrespective of what Labour might like to do differently in an ideal world).


This post has been edited by Danny: Mar 31 2015, 02:55 PM
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Suedehead2
post Mar 31 2015, 05:34 PM
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The Tory strategy seems to be two-fold. First, they try to scare people away from their opponents, particularly Labour. They also question the legitimacy of other opponents, principally the SNP. If that means telling lies, that's what they will do. Witness their nonsense about Labour's plans costing £3,000 per household.

Then, there are their own promises. Their strategy here seems to be to make increasingly outlandish promises on the assumption that they will not be subjected to any scrutiny. First, we had the promise that GP surgeries will be open 12 hours per day, seven days a week. One of the current problems with the NHS is a lack of GPs. Where are all these extra GPs going to come from all of a sudden? Or do the Tories expect existing GPs to cover all the extra hours? What about all the other staff, such as receptionists? How is all this going to be paid for within the existing budget? If any other party had suggested opening surgeries for an extra half-an-hour per week, the Tories would be denouncing it as an uncosted pledge, leaving a multi-billion pound hole in their plans.

Today, they have promised that everybody who wants a job will have one. How is that going to work? When was the last time this happened? Perhaps they will redefine job-seeking as a job.

At this rate, by the end of the campaign, the Tories will be promising that we will all own at least seven homes and that each family will have their own individual planet to escape to.
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jark
post Mar 31 2015, 06:11 PM
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QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Mar 31 2015, 06:34 PM) *
The Tory strategy seems to be two-fold. First, they try to scare people away from their opponents... They also question the legitimacy of other opponents... If that means telling lies, that's what they will do.

You just described the strategy of every political party who ever campaigned for any election anywhere. Congratulations!

And yes they are rightly spelling out for people that the SNP are idiots whose goals are not realistic and who vocally dislike our country and want to break up from us... And yet also think they have a right to be a part of our government. We should all be thankful that somebody is slating the SNP, and you know it sure as hell won't be labour because their only hope of governing England is to get into bed with the very same people who want a divorce from us.


This post has been edited by jark: Mar 31 2015, 06:12 PM
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Suedehead2
post Mar 31 2015, 06:27 PM
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QUOTE(jark @ Mar 31 2015, 07:11 PM) *
You just described the strategy of every political party who ever campaigned for any election anywhere. Congratulations!

And yes they are rightly spelling out for people that the SNP are idiots whose goals are not realistic and who vocally dislike our country and want to break up from us... And yet also think they have a right to be a part of our government. We should all be thankful that somebody is slating the SNP, and you know it sure as hell won't be labour because their only hope of governing England is to get into bed with the very same people who want a divorce from us.

Not true. Politicians frequently exaggerate or use statistics in a misleading way. They generally avoid outright lies. They also tend not to question an opponent's very legitimacy. The SNP have as much right to vote in the House of Commons as any other party. Other parties can attack their policies; they should not question their right to use any power they might have after the election. Opinion polls suggest that the SNP will get a higher share of the vote in Scotland than either Labour or the Tories will manage to get in England. They have every right to use that mandate to do what they think is best for the people who elected them, i.e. Scots.

Of course, the effect of the Tories' strategy could be to persuade Labour / SNP waverers to vote Labour.
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Popchartfreak
post Mar 31 2015, 06:43 PM
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Interesting assessment today in the i on the relative thoroughness of both parties election promises.

As in vague evasive filled with promises of free gifts presumably fallen off the back of an uncosted lorry.

Maybe they are waiting to release the financial detail the day before the election so no one has time to go over the figures....

Or maybe they are still counting after all they've only had 5 years wouldn't want to rush into these things!
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5 Silas Frøkner
post Mar 31 2015, 07:36 PM
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Oh f*** off.

The w*n**rs in the Better Together campaign spent the entire referendum chanting "we're stronger together" "you belong with us" etc like some form of sick cult. Yet, when the SNP want to join in that's suddenly not kosher. Piss off. You can't have your cake and eat it. We're either all in this together or we go it alone. We're entitled to our fair say.

I don't recall seeing anyone levelling that strategy at UKIP during the Euros.

The SNP have been honest that they're still aiming for an independent Scotland but absolutely nowhere in their manifesto is even a hint of a referendum. The party accepts that the 55% won and it's saying that you can't just shove Scotland back in it's box and put it on a a shelf. 45% of the country and 2 of the 4 largest cities voted to leave the Union in the most participated in election or referendum in British history (since universal suffrage). That's not something that can be ignored. The SNP is saying that Scotland want's to stay and while we're here we may as well do our best to improve the system we're stuck with.
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Suedehead2
post Mar 31 2015, 07:46 PM
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QUOTE(Silas @ Mar 31 2015, 08:36 PM) *
The w*n**rs in the Better Together campaign spent the entire referendum chanting "we're stronger together" "you belong with us" etc like some form of sick cult. Yet, when the SNP want to join in that's suddenly not kosher. Piss off. You can't have your cake and eat it. We're either all in this together or we go it alone. We're entitled to our fair say.

I don't recall seeing anyone levelling that strategy at UKIP during the Euros.

Indeed. Similarly, nothing was said when the Tories stood for the Scottish Parliament (or the Welsh assembly) after they had opposed devolution.
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Popchartfreak
post Mar 31 2015, 07:53 PM
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If the SNP can get a Labour party coalition or minority gov to lean more leftwards, do more for the poor and less for the rich and create a socially fairer UK, I say good luck to 'em....
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Danny
post Mar 31 2015, 08:19 PM
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QUOTE(popchartfreak @ Mar 31 2015, 08:53 PM) *
If the SNP can get a Labour party coalition or minority gov to lean more leftwards, do more for the poor and less for the rich and create a socially fairer UK, I say good luck to 'em....


Yup!

I really wish that Nicola Sturgeon was the leader of UK Labour tbh.


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Rooney
post Mar 31 2015, 08:28 PM
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Gotta admit that I agree with Jark on most politics, but I disagree with his stance on the SNP. I think unlike the Labour party, they had clear ideologies and know what they want to achieve (however absurd it may be). The Labour party have let the people of Scotland down, so you can see why support has turned to the SNP for the time being. Scotland is a part of the UK so they should have as much say as how the country is run as anyone. What I don't like is the attitude that is given off, that 'we will mug the English'. Fair play we're an United Kingdom, but if the SNP try and screw over England then they're just as bad as before really!

What I do find hilarious is both parties insistence that both will not get in to bed with each other laugh.gif I can guarantee that will not be the case in May, and I know which of the two parties will get the better side of the deal!
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jark
post Mar 31 2015, 08:53 PM
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QUOTE(Silas @ Mar 31 2015, 08:36 PM) *
Oh f*** off.

The w*n**rs in the Better Together campaign spent the entire referendum chanting "we're stronger together" "you belong with us" etc like some form of sick cult. Yet, when the SNP want to join in that's suddenly not kosher. Piss off. You can't have your cake and eat it. We're either all in this together or we go it alone. We're entitled to our fair say.

I don't recall seeing anyone levelling that strategy at UKIP during the Euros.

The SNP have been honest that they're still aiming for an independent Scotland but absolutely nowhere in their manifesto is even a hint of a referendum. The party accepts that the 55% won and it's saying that you can't just shove Scotland back in it's box and put it on a a shelf. 45% of the country and 2 of the 4 largest cities voted to leave the Union in the most participated in election or referendum in British history (since universal suffrage). That's not something that can be ignored. The SNP is saying that Scotland want's to stay and while we're here we may as well do our best to improve the system we're stuck with.

A sick cult? Or just a union of countries who, all economic experts are fully agreed, are far better off together than alone? And please don't tell me you truly don't believe the SNP have designs on getting free from the union Phil. I know you can't be that naive. Independence is their entire ethos, it's the reason they exist and the reason they've gained popularity, and they won't give up on that regardless of what they're saying in order to get a foothold in Westminster. What exactly about the system you're "stuck with" demands improvement? Scotland gets more capita per head from money generated in England than it would if it strikes out alone. Where do you honestly imagine all this mythical money will come from to keep you afloat?

Anyway I digress. My point was that the notion of England being ruled by a coalition including the SNP is absurd, given that the Scots have such a large chip on their shoulder about being ruled by England, and I stand by that. It's true that you can't have your cake and eat it, and about time Scotland realised it.
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Suedehead2
post Mar 31 2015, 09:04 PM
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QUOTE(jark @ Mar 31 2015, 09:53 PM) *
Anyway I digress. My point was that the notion of England being ruled by a coalition including the SNP is absurd, given that the Scots have such a large chip on their shoulder about being ruled by England, and I stand by that. It's true that you can't have your cake and eat it, and about time Scotland realised it.

You mean the way Scots objected to having the Poll Tax imposed on them by a government that won ten of the 72 Scottish seats (a significantly lower proportion of seats than the two coalition parties at the last election) at the previous election? I think I can understand why they might not have been too keen on that.

BTW, yes the Tories really did win as many as ten seats in 1987. What would they give to repeat that? laugh.gif
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Danny
post Mar 31 2015, 10:49 PM
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Today's two polls had a 1% Tory lead and 1% Labour lead.

The Lib Dems are projected to get just 7 seats on tonight's YouGov poll. The rising Tory score is fatal for them, because they were relying on keeping the swing down in the Tory/LD marginals since most of the Lib-Lab marginals are write-offs.


This post has been edited by Danny: Mar 31 2015, 11:05 PM
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Soy Adrián
post Mar 31 2015, 11:08 PM
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QUOTE(Silas @ Mar 31 2015, 08:36 PM) *
Oh f*** off.

The w*n**rs in the Better Together campaign spent the entire referendum chanting "we're stronger together" "you belong with us" etc like some form of sick cult. Yet, when the SNP want to join in that's suddenly not kosher. Piss off. You can't have your cake and eat it. We're either all in this together or we go it alone. We're entitled to our fair say.

I don't recall seeing anyone levelling that strategy at UKIP during the Euros.

It helps that at least your lot tend to show up at Westminster.
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Danny
post Apr 1 2015, 11:55 AM
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Clegg behind again in new Sheffield Hallam poll: Labour on 36%, Clegg on 34%.
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ChristmasEve201
post Apr 1 2015, 07:30 PM
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QUOTE(jark @ Mar 31 2015, 07:11 PM) *
You just described the strategy of every political party who ever campaigned for any election anywhere. Congratulations!

And yes they are rightly spelling out for people that the SNP are idiots whose goals are not realistic and who vocally dislike our country and want to break up from us... And yet also think they have a right to be a part of our government. We should all be thankful that somebody is slating the SNP, and you know it sure as hell won't be labour because their only hope of governing England is to get into bed with the very same people who want a divorce from us.


rolleyes.gif Some ridiculous statements here, who's country do you mean when you say 'our'?!
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Danny
post Apr 3 2015, 11:14 AM
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Last night will be a good test of whether "the centre ground" really is where elections are won. Miliband could not have been more "centrist" on the spending cuts question if he tried, he was literally equidistant between the "extremes" of Cameron and Sturgeon.

It could be that he seems the most in-line with the mainstream, but my suspicion is that in the long run his arguments were too weak and convoluted to make any real impression on people, whereas Cameron's argument (whether you agree with it or not) was much more straightforward and powerful.
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