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> General Election 2015 Seat prediction game.
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sm1ffj
post Apr 4 2015, 01:06 PM
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Just for fun, predict the Final seats won for each party in the General Election as reveal after May 7th, I will log guesses in post 1 here, the winning poster will be revealed in May, who is closest.

Guess up til end of April, change your mind anytime until then by editing your post, May 1st I will take all guesses as final.

I have just put the 6 main options there, up to you if you want to guess more specific, wales and NI parties for example.

Con:
Lab:
Lib Dem:
UKIP:
SNP:
Others:


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Qassändra
post Apr 4 2015, 09:26 PM
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LAB 287 (+1 from RES, -2 to UKIP, +39 from Con, +1 from PC, -23 to SNP, +12 from LD)
CON 274 (+1 from UKIP, -4 to UKIP, +14 from LD, -1 to LD, -39 to LAB)
LD 23 (-12 to Lab, -9 to SNP, -14 to Con, +1 from Con)
UKIP 6 (+4 from Con, -1 to Con, +2 from Lab)
SNP 38 (+9 from LD, +23 from Lab)
GRN 1 (-)
PC 2 (-1 to LAB)
Speaker 1 (-)

DUP 9 (+1 from SF)
SF 4 (-1 to DUP)
SDLP 3 (-)
UUP 1 (+1 from APNI)
Sylvia Hermon 1 (-)
APNI 0 (-1 to UUP)

Possibilities:

LAB (+SDLP) + LD (+ DUP/UUP?) (287 + 23 = 310 (+ 10? = 320?), plus SNP confidence and supply or abstention)
CON + LD (274 + 23 = 297, plus SNP abstention deal in exchange for Scottish fiscal autonomy)


This post has been edited by Qassändra: Apr 4 2015, 09:53 PM
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Doctor Blind
post Apr 4 2015, 09:27 PM
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Con: 283 (-24)
Lab: 282 (+24)
Lib Dem: 22 (-35)
UKIP: 4 (+4)
SNP: 35 (+29)
Others: 24 (+3)

Prediction: Conservative minority government, by 1. tongue.gif
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Brett-Butler
post Apr 4 2015, 09:39 PM
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QUOTE(Qassändra @ Apr 4 2015, 10:26 PM) *
UUP 1 (+1 from APNI)
APNI 0 (-1 to UUP)


Alliance sure as hell aren't losing that seat to the UUP, given that the latter aren't standing in Belfast East.
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Qassändra
post Apr 4 2015, 09:39 PM
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It would be poetic, but in the event of that scenario Labour would command a stronger minority - SDLP have three seats, so the Conservatives need to be at least four seats ahead of Labour in order to claim a more stable whip!
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Danny
post Apr 4 2015, 09:39 PM
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QUOTE(Qassändra @ Apr 4 2015, 10:26 PM) *
SNP 36 (+4 from LD, +26 from Lab)


You've given up on Jim Murphy and his charisma, huh? tongue.gif

**

Conservatives 312
Labour 262
SNP 26
Lib Dems 24
UKIP 4
Others 22

Tory minority which (hopefully) is literally unable to get any cuts through Parliament.


This post has been edited by Danny: Apr 4 2015, 09:40 PM
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Qassändra
post Apr 4 2015, 09:40 PM
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QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Apr 4 2015, 10:39 PM) *
QUOTE(Qassändra @ Apr 4 2015, 10:26 PM) *


UUP 1 (+1 from APNI)
APNI 0 (-1 to UUP)


Alliance sure as hell aren't losing that seat to the UUP, given that the latter aren't standing in Belfast East.

Mix-up! I meant UUP +1 from SF and DUP +1 from APNI.
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Qassändra
post Apr 4 2015, 09:50 PM
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QUOTE(Danny @ Apr 4 2015, 10:39 PM) *
You've given up on Jim Murphy and his charisma, huh? tongue.gif

I'm taking the view that literally nobody is good enough to overcome the coalescing of 40-45% of the vote around one party in a first past the post system in five months. I think Jim Murphy's the right answer eventually, but it's going to take a couple of years for the SNP to start making mistakes and for him to be able to start cutting through - it's like going up against Blair in 1997 at the moment.

We'll get wrecked on seats because a lot of seats start falling on similar swings, but I think we might be able to keep it to within ten points nationally in Scotland, and that a lot of the SNP wins will have majorities of less than a thousand - basically, an awful result, but one which doesn't exterminate us.
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Qassändra
post Apr 4 2015, 09:56 PM
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QUOTE(Danny @ Apr 4 2015, 10:39 PM) *
Conservatives 312
Labour 262
SNP 26
Lib Dems 24
UKIP 4
Others 22

Tory minority which (hopefully) is literally unable to get any cuts through Parliament.

Wait, what's the maths here? The SNP make 10 gains from the Lib Dems and 10 from Labour I'm guessing - do Labour only gain a sum of 15 seats from the Lib Dems and the Tories?!
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Danny
post Apr 4 2015, 09:58 PM
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QUOTE(Qassändra @ Apr 4 2015, 10:56 PM) *
Wait, what's the maths here? The SNP make 10 gains from the Lib Dems and 10 from Labour I'm guessing - do Labour only gain a sum of 15 seats from the Lib Dems and the Tories?!


I didn't work out the exact number of gains I'd expect them to make from each one, but generally I think Labour will make very few gains from the Tories. Quite possibly the Tories might snatch one or two Labour seats themselves.
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Brett-Butler
post Apr 4 2015, 10:04 PM
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I hope I've added these up correctly:

Con: 282
Lab: 280
Lib Dem: 27
UKIP: 5 (would have been 6 had Diane James not withdrawn)
SNP: 29
DUP: 9 (unfortunately)
Sinn Fein - 5
SDLP - 3
Lady Sylvia - 1
Alliance/UUP/NI Greens/CISTA/TUV/Workers - 0
Plaid Cymru - 5
Respect:0 (and I hope George Galloway doesn't threaten to sue me for saying so).
Greens: 1
Speaker: 1
Others: 2
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Suedehead2
post Apr 4 2015, 10:05 PM
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Con: 276
Lab: 276
Lib Dem: 30
UKIP: 2
SNP: 43
Others: 23 (18 NI + 3 Plaid + 1 Green + Speaker)

Chaos biggrin.gif
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Qassändra
post Apr 4 2015, 10:07 PM
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Which two Suedey - Clacton and South Thanet?
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Suedehead2
post Apr 4 2015, 10:11 PM
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QUOTE(Qassändra @ Apr 4 2015, 11:07 PM) *
Which two Suedey - Clacton and South Thanet?

Ideally, Clacton plus somewhere unexpected with an embarrassingly awful candidate tongue.gif
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Soy Adrián
post Apr 5 2015, 08:37 AM
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LAB 285 - 33.1%
CON 274 - 33.0
LD 25 - 8.9
UKIP 4 (Clacton, Thanet, Boston & Skegness, Great Yarmouth) - 13.1
SNP 39
GRN 1 - 5.2
PC 3

Two main parties almost inseparable in number of votes. Don't ask me to comment on Hallam.
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Popchartfreak
post Apr 5 2015, 09:06 AM
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QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Apr 4 2015, 11:05 PM) *
Con: 276
Lab: 276
Lib Dem: 30
UKIP: 2
SNP: 43
Others: 23 (18 NI + 3 Plaid + 1 Green + Speaker)

Chaos biggrin.gif


cat amongst the political pigeons there!
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Qassändra
post Apr 5 2015, 10:48 AM
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I thought UKIP were certs in Boston until I found out they selected a 22 year old who still has acne. I know they like to make out they're all about the local, but it's a bit naïve really - they should've just put up Suzanne Evans there.
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Qassändra
post Apr 5 2015, 10:51 AM
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On the popular vote, for all intents and purposes outside Labour and the Tories it's meaningless this time around given how fragmented everything is - and even then it's only relevant to the big two for spin purposes rather than anything results-wise.

I predict that the Tories will get a couple of hundred thousand more votes than Labour (whilst getting fewer seats), and the media will start screaming en masse and pretending that this goes Cameron the divine moral right to enact the entire Conservative manifesto. I also predict that inevitable calls for voting reform will be sidetracked by straw men arguments and a Sun campaign for boundary reform.
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Qassändra
post Apr 5 2015, 10:52 AM
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(And lest we forget, boundary reform is the real prize of this election.)
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Soy Adrián
post Apr 5 2015, 03:48 PM
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AV/STV mixed system. And not just because it sounds like the kind of mangled thing we'd come up with if in government.
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