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> Poll: Will the UK leave the EU?
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EU Poll
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Total Votes: 47
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sm1ffj
post Jun 7 2015, 04:37 PM
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What do you think, will the UK vote to leave the EU?
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Qassändra
post Jun 7 2015, 05:06 PM
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Nah. Not least if Nigel Farage elbows his way to leading the No campaign as he's currently attempting.
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5 Silas Frøkner
post Jun 7 2015, 06:28 PM
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I don't think so and we'd better bloody not.
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Brett-Butler
post Jun 7 2015, 06:52 PM
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I think it'll depend on whether David Cameron manages to get any concessions concerning the renegotiation of the UK's membership of the EU. If the reforms are viewed to be adequate enough by the general population, the UK will vote to stay in in droves. If they get very little, or no concessions, I believe that it will be a very slight victory for the 'out' campaign.

Personally, I'd like the UK to remain in.
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Qassändra
post Jun 7 2015, 07:22 PM
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He'll get the ability to make welfare contributory-only for EU nationals, but that's about it. And it'd be enough for anyone who isn't allergic to the idea of basic competition.
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Suedehead2
post Jun 7 2015, 07:25 PM
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Cameron is playing a dangerous game here. Freedom of movement seems to be one of the areas he wants to change. However, Angela Merkel (having been brought up in East Germany) and the leaders of the ex-Soviet and Soviet bloc countries will be very reluctant to make any significant concessions on that. Of course, the Yes campaigners need to remind people that they too benefit from freedom of movement. Polls suggest that rather more people support freedom of movement for UK citizens than support it for people from other member states. It's called wanting to have your cake and eat it.

As long as the Yes campaign get their act together, they should win. Regardless of what concessions Cameron gets, nothing will change the fact that we will have to abide by most EU rules even if we leave. The only alternative is to abandon trade links with the EU. The only difference would be that we would no longer have any say in the rules.

EDIT: Just to clarify, by Yes, I mean the "stay in the EU" side (unlike the wording of this poll).
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Popchartfreak
post Jun 7 2015, 10:14 PM
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The vote, ignoring minor issues, is largely based around fear of foreigners having the freedom to come and work and live in the UK.

This ignores some basic facts: there are just as many people working in the UK from outside the EU as in it, which kinda suggests the EU is not the problem (if that is indeed a problem). It means UK people wont be easily able to live and work in the EU, not to mention travel very easily on holiday.

Logically, the concession that people not born in the UK should be entitled to benefits until they've contributed into the system for a while should kill those sorts of arguments. Hopefully.

Incidentally, Germans have free further education, university courses. Anyone in the world can apply. Can't see the UK going down that route....
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Qassändra
post Jun 7 2015, 10:39 PM
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QUOTE(popchartfreak @ Jun 7 2015, 11:14 PM) *
The vote, ignoring minor issues, is largely based around fear of foreigners having the freedom to come and work and live in the UK.

This ignores some basic facts: there are just as many people working in the UK from outside the EU as in it, which kinda suggests the EU is not the problem (if that is indeed a problem). It means UK people wont be easily able to live and work in the EU, not to mention travel very easily on holiday.

Logically, the concession that people not born in the UK should be entitled to benefits until they've contributed into the system for a while should kill those sorts of arguments. Hopefully.

A fear of foreigners having the freedom to come and work and live in the UK doesn't get killed by the fact we can do the same elsewhere, any more than having a fear of someone coming to your house is killed by the fact you can go to someone else's house.

Not that I have much time for the fear, but this referendum is going to end in disaster if we just conduct it on rational 'we're right you're wrong' 'well ACTUALLY...' legalistic type arguments.
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Popchartfreak
post Jun 8 2015, 07:01 AM
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QUOTE(Qassändra @ Jun 7 2015, 11:39 PM) *
A fear of foreigners having the freedom to come and work and live in the UK doesn't get killed by the fact we can do the same elsewhere, any more than having a fear of someone coming to your house is killed by the fact you can go to someone else's house.

Not that I have much time for the fear, but this referendum is going to end in disaster if we just conduct it on rational 'we're right you're wrong' 'well ACTUALLY...' legalistic type arguments.


No, but it needs to be pointed out quite loudly that leaving the EU does nothing to "stop" foreigners coming to the UK and working - business (banks and the like, Australian bar-staff, IT jobs, doctors and nurses from India, the Far East) employs people regardless of being in the EU or not. Unless the Tories are proposing a cap on ALL non-UK workers coming to the UK (and plunge the NHS in crisis, and banking into threatening to leave the UK even more than it already is) - which they ain't - then the whole argument is flawed and the counter-argument needs loudly supporting.

What people mean is they are fed up with foreigners coming over here and living off the state (which is not many) or taking lower paid jobs that British don't want to do (too low paid) or by being better qualified than the available pool of labour. The problem (if there is one) isn't people coming over here to work, the problem is businesses choosing to employ them and I don't frankly see people moaning about it lining up to clean the Town hall offices for a few hours every night as opposed to being on benefits. They are quite happy for foreign labour to do low-paid grafting work. You can argue wages should be higher but no-one wants to pay the extra cost least of all the cost-cutting Tories. So they are hypocrites. Needs pointing out.

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ChristmasEve201
post Jun 8 2015, 08:47 AM
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DC will come back from one of these meetings before the referendum with very little but proclaim himself to be the saviour of britain by having got more concessions than Thatcher ever did and using that as a basis for arguing yes in the referendum and will hope thats enough to win!
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Harve
post Jun 8 2015, 09:20 AM
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QUOTE(Qassändra @ Jun 7 2015, 10:39 PM) *
A fear of foreigners having the freedom to come and work and live in the UK doesn't get killed by the fact we can do the same elsewhere, any more than having a fear of someone coming to your house is killed by the fact you can go to someone else's house.

Not that I have much time for the fear, but this referendum is going to end in disaster if we just conduct it on rational 'we're right you're wrong' 'well ACTUALLY...' legalistic type arguments.

Right. But what's the correct approach?
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Qassändra
post Jun 8 2015, 01:16 PM
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I would say:

- showing how the EU benefits us directly on an individual level through things like the Social Chapter/Working Time Directive (except more phrased as the actual direct benefits rather than calling them those names - pick and choose)
- demonstrating how we can share the benefits of immigration with all while ensuring nobody's left behind (more in the realms of individual party policy there, but why not if all the Tories have to talk about is a cap that doesn't work?)
- an attack campaign that the plan for prosperity outside the EU involves getting rid of the Working Time Directive - namely these ivory tower Tory economists having YOU work 50 hour weeks for reduced wages to make them better off because Better Off Out's plan for the future doesn't care about YOU (and only staying in the EU can save our protections, our freedoms, and ensure security for our children's futures) (etc).
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Danny
post Jun 12 2015, 02:07 PM
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I'm still not understanding why supporting the EU is an article of faith for lefties now. I'm going to need more than vague claims about how "our economy relies on it" (the same kind of mindless unsubstantiated "don't rock the boat" argument which was just trotted out in favour of the Tories) to make me vote to stay in.

This post has been edited by Danny: Jun 12 2015, 02:07 PM
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Qassändra
post Jun 12 2015, 02:32 PM
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QUOTE(Danny @ Jun 12 2015, 03:07 PM) *
I'm still not understanding why supporting the EU is an article of faith for lefties now. I'm going to need more than vague claims about how "our economy relies on it" (the same kind of mindless unsubstantiated "don't rock the boat" argument which was just trotted out in favour of the Tories) to make me vote to stay in.

Because the entire case for the economic benefits of getting out is built on destroying workers' rights, tearing up the Working Time Directive and screwing over immigrants. It's one of the few safeguards that stops a Tory government from being total pandemonium.
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Danny
post Jun 12 2015, 03:24 PM
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QUOTE(Qassändra @ Jun 12 2015, 03:32 PM) *
Because the entire case for the economic benefits of getting out is built on destroying workers' rights, tearing up the Working Time Directive and screwing over immigrants. It's one of the few safeguards that stops a Tory government from being total pandemonium.


It looks like Cameron is going to negotiate away most of those things anyway. If he does, what is the incentive to stay in just so that big businesses can maximise their profits and money can be wasted on super-bureaucracy?
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Qassändra
post Jun 12 2015, 03:31 PM
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QUOTE(Danny @ Jun 12 2015, 04:24 PM) *
It looks like Cameron is going to negotiate away most of those things anyway. If he does, what is the incentive to stay in just so that big businesses can maximise their profits and money can be wasted on super-bureaucracy?

I don't think he is going to negotiate most of those things away - Merkel isn't going to want to rewrite half the treaties. He'll be lucky to get a contributory principle on EU citizens getting benefits. And it'll be all he needs.

I also don't really see it as a waste of money because it comes with a lot of associated gains - I don't think the potential gains of leaving the EU outweigh the potential loss of up to a million jobs from companies based here partly because they need a base in the EU. Spin it as 'BIG BUSINESSES RAPING THE WORKERS!!!!1!1' all you like, but workers don't really tend to like it if they've just lost their job. I think if anything this demonstrates that businesses don't just operate on a zero-sum 'fuck the workers for profits' principle, otherwise a lot more would be supporting Out precisely because it would enable them to do that.

Also, why exactly do you think bureaucracy exists? Just for the sake of it? Which areas would you suggest getting rid of?
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Popchartfreak
post Jun 12 2015, 04:09 PM
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QUOTE(Danny @ Jun 12 2015, 03:07 PM) *
I'm still not understanding why supporting the EU is an article of faith for lefties now. I'm going to need more than vague claims about how "our economy relies on it" (the same kind of mindless unsubstantiated "don't rock the boat" argument which was just trotted out in favour of the Tories) to make me vote to stay in.


More of an article of faith for reasoned arguments I'd say. What are the actual advantages of NOT being in the EU? Can't think of a single one, myself though there must be a couple of minor pluses to it, at least for some.
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Danny
post Jun 12 2015, 04:14 PM
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QUOTE(Qassändra @ Jun 12 2015, 04:31 PM) *
I don't think he is going to negotiate most of those things away - Merkel isn't going to want to rewrite half the treaties. He'll be lucky to get a contributory principle on EU citizens getting benefits. And it'll be all he needs.

I also don't really see it as a waste of money because it comes with a lot of associated gains - I don't think the potential gains of leaving the EU outweigh the potential loss of up to a million jobs from companies based here partly because they need a base in the EU. Spin it as 'BIG BUSINESSES RAPING THE WORKERS!!!!1!1' all you like, but workers don't really tend to like it if they've just lost their job. I think if anything this demonstrates that businesses don't just operate on a zero-sum 'fuck the workers for profits' principle, otherwise a lot more would be supporting Out precisely because it would enable them to do that.

Also, why exactly do you think bureaucracy exists? Just for the sake of it? Which areas would you suggest getting rid of?


Again, these are the types of argument the Right just trotted out in favour of the Tories. I don't believe for a minute these businesses would actually leave if we left the EU, just as I don't believe they would leave if taxes were put up or if they were made to pay their workers more, because the fundamental advantages of doing business in one of the most wealthy and highly-educated countries in the world are not going to suddenly disappear.


This post has been edited by Danny: Jun 12 2015, 04:15 PM
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Danny
post Jun 12 2015, 04:18 PM
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QUOTE(popchartfreak @ Jun 12 2015, 05:09 PM) *
More of an article of faith for reasoned arguments I'd say. What are the actual advantages of NOT being in the EU? Can't think of a single one, myself though there must be a couple of minor pluses to it, at least for some.


To be perfectly honest, I don't think it makes much difference one way or the other if we're in the EU. Immature as it sounds though, if the big business fat cats all start lining up and telling people to do what they say if they want to stay benefitting from their generosity, then I might vote Out just to take them down a peg or two (the reverse to so many people who were saying a year ago they would vote Out of the EU, but have now switched to In apparently just because they don't want to be associated with Nigel Farage).


This post has been edited by Danny: Jun 12 2015, 04:24 PM
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Qassändra
post Jun 12 2015, 04:40 PM
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QUOTE(Danny @ Jun 12 2015, 05:14 PM) *
Again, these are the types of argument the Right just trotted out in favour of the Tories. I don't believe for a minute these businesses would actually leave if we left the EU, just as I don't believe they would leave if taxes were put up or if they were made to pay their workers more, because the fundamental advantages of doing business in one of the most wealthy and highly-educated countries in the world are not going to suddenly disappear.

Apart from the fact a lot have their European bases here *because* it only makes sense for an international business to be based within the EU for their European arm? They wouldn't stop trading here completely (nobody's arguing that) but it's a wholly different argument to taxes or wages going up because being in the EU is an either/or proposition - they wouldn't keep a base here when they could move it to Germany or France, which are similarly wealthy and highly-educated but where they would be able to benefit from the trade advantages of being in the EU.
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