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> 2016 Regional Elections, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland, London Mayor & various Councils
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5 Silas Frøkner
post Jun 23 2015, 06:36 PM
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Thought it may be an idea to have a separate thread for the various regional elections in 2016 rather than the main UK thread.

In less than 11 months, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland will be voting for a new Parliament, London will replace Boris and there will be Local Authority elections across the country.

2 weeks ago TNS released the first Holyrood poll since the general election and it makes for utterly astonishing reading.

Constituency: SNP - 60%, Labour - 19%, Tory - 15%, Lib Dem - 3%, Others - 3%
List - SNP - 50%, Labour 19%, Tory - 14%, Green 10%, Lib Dem - 5%, scUmKIP - 2%, Others - 0%

Shoving that into the Scotlandvotes.com calculator gives the SNP 73 seats (+4, 3 List, 70 constit), Labour 25 seats (-12, all List), Tory 17 seats (+2, somehow. 2 Constit, 15 List), Greens 10 (+8, all list), Lib Dem 4 (-1, Shetland Constit, 3 List), scUmKIP 0, Others 0 (-1)

Would be a spectacular victory for the Greens to see them become the proper 4th party of Scottish Politics. The little calculator thingy I used has Eastwood going Tory which I don't really buy that much to be honest. Even though they are habitually 2nd place, I can't see Labour voters voting Tory to keep out the SNP.
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Qassändra
post Jun 23 2015, 06:44 PM
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My predictions:

WALES: Labour minority / Tory/UKIP coalition
SCOTLAND: SNP majority off constituency seats alone
LONDON: Tessa if selected / Zac Goldsmith if not; Labour largest on Assembly again
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5 Silas Frøkner
post Jun 23 2015, 07:03 PM
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I'd mostly agree with your predictions there Tyron.

The prospect of a Tory/UKIP coalition ruling Wales is rather a worrying one as it doesn't seem to be unrealistic. I think that a Plaid/Labour coalition in charge of Wales is a slightly more likely outcome of next May as I imagine that both PC and Labour's numbers should just about hold on. UKIP will make massive in roads there though which is frightening.

First poll agrees with you on Scotland as only 65 seats are required for a majority and after last month taking 65/73 constituencies doesn't look unreasonable. It will be interesting to see in places like the North East if the SNP manage to break the AMS system again. Last time all NE seats went SNP so in theory they should have had no list seats. However they have a NE list MSP because so many people voted SNP to make it representative they actually needed that extra seat.

Based on May, London should be voting Labour for the assembly. Not sure on the mayor yet as that depends who makes the cut.
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Qassändra
post Jun 23 2015, 07:08 PM
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I don't rule out a Labour comeback, but I'd rather not go through last month again any time soon so I'm going to default to worst case scenario assumptions from now on unless I see some receipts making anything better look inevitable.
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Soy Adrián
post Jun 23 2015, 09:34 PM
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QUOTE(Qassändra @ Jun 23 2015, 07:44 PM) *
My predictions:

WALES: Labour minority / Tory/UKIP coalition
SCOTLAND: SNP majority off constituency seats alone
LONDON: Tessa if selected / Zac Goldsmith if not; Labour largest on Assembly again

You don't think KHAAAAAAAAN could beat Goldsmith?
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Qassändra
post Jun 23 2015, 09:37 PM
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QUOTE(Soy Adrián @ Jun 23 2015, 10:34 PM) *
You don't think KHAAAAAAAAN could beat Goldsmith?

Nah. I'd love it if he could, but if they're polling at 50-50 now before the Evening Standard have fired everything they've got at him, he doesn't stand a chance. Plus the fucking Greens are whispering that they might officially endorse Goldsmith for second preferences and after last month I don't want to put myself through another bloody year of 'oooooh, the progressive majority!!!!' myths.

So yeah, I'm not taking chances - the Standard have all but endorsed Tessa already so it'd be a hell of a u-turn for them to whack out the howitzers for her (at worst they'll probably just do a non-endorsement), and pretty much all the candidates are saying roughly the same thing so I'll take a win that looks like it'd be more in the bag.
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Brett-Butler
post Jun 23 2015, 10:01 PM
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*cough* Northern Ireland have their Assembly elections in 2016 too.
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5 Silas Frøkner
post Jun 23 2015, 10:05 PM
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*cough* its been there all along *cough*
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Danny
post Jun 23 2015, 10:06 PM
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I would probably vote for Zac Goldsmith over Tessa Jowell if I was in London, tbh. If Tory policies are going to be delivered by a Labour candidate anyway, it would be better to have the real deal who atleast seems capable of occasionally thinking outside the box.

This post has been edited by Danny: Jun 23 2015, 10:07 PM
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Suedehead2
post Jun 23 2015, 10:11 PM
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QUOTE(Qassändra @ Jun 23 2015, 10:37 PM) *
Nah. I'd love it if he could, but if they're polling at 50-50 now before the Evening Standard have fired everything they've got at him, he doesn't stand a chance. Plus the fucking Greens are whispering that they might officially endorse Goldsmith for second preferences and after last month I don't want to put myself through another bloody year of 'oooooh, the progressive majority!!!!' myths.

So yeah, I'm not taking chances - the Standard have all but endorsed Tessa already so it'd be a hell of a u-turn for them to whack out the howitzers for her (at worst they'll probably just do a non-endorsement), and pretty much all the candidates are saying roughly the same thing so I'll take a win that looks like it'd be more in the bag.

When have the Tory press ever shied away from making a complete u-turn? They regularly work on the assumption that people won't notice a complete about turn.
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Danny
post Jun 23 2015, 10:24 PM
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QUOTE(Qassändra @ Jun 23 2015, 10:37 PM) *
Nah. I'd love it if he could, but if they're polling at 50-50 now before the Evening Standard have fired everything they've got at him, he doesn't stand a chance. Plus the fucking Greens are whispering that they might officially endorse Goldsmith for second preferences and after last month I don't want to put myself through another bloody year of 'oooooh, the progressive majority!!!!' myths.

So yeah, I'm not taking chances - the Standard have all but endorsed Tessa already so it'd be a hell of a u-turn for them to whack out the howitzers for her (at worst they'll probably just do a non-endorsement), and pretty much all the candidates are saying roughly the same thing so I'll take a win that looks like it'd be more in the bag.


So opinion polls are the gospel truth when they show lefties doing badly, but pointless tests of name recognition when they show Blairites doing badly? tongue.gif


This post has been edited by Danny: Jun 23 2015, 10:25 PM
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Qassändra
post Jun 23 2015, 10:29 PM
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QUOTE(Danny @ Jun 23 2015, 11:24 PM) *
So opinion polls are the gospel truth when they show lefties doing badly, but pointless tests of name recognition when they show Blairites doing badly? tongue.gif

No, because the majority of the candidates in London are fairly well known? You're also comparing apples with oranges here - these are head to head polls, not 'who do you want to win the selection'. If a poll came out now that showed Andy Burnham/Yvette Cooper with a 15 point lead over David Cameron/Boris and barely any don't knows that'd be that settled right there.
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Danny
post Jun 23 2015, 10:33 PM
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QUOTE(Qassändra @ Jun 23 2015, 11:29 PM) *
No, because the majority of the candidates in London are fairly well known? You're also comparing apples with oranges here - these are head to head polls, not 'who do you want to win the selection'. If a poll came out now that showed Andy Burnham/Yvette Cooper with a 15 point lead over David Cameron/Boris and barely any don't knows that'd be that settled right there.


Sadiq Khan, really? The gap between how well-known Tessa Jowell and Sadiq Khan are, is surely MUCH bigger than the gap between how well-known Andy Burnham and Liz Kendall were at the start of the leadership contest.

(Though I think the polls do reflect that Tessa would have a better chance than Sadiq, simply because she reminds people of the Olympics.)


This post has been edited by Danny: Jun 23 2015, 10:34 PM
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Qassändra
post Jun 23 2015, 10:34 PM
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QUOTE(Danny @ Jun 23 2015, 11:06 PM) *
I would probably vote for Zac Goldsmith over Tessa Jowell if I was in London, tbh. If Tory policies are going to be delivered by a Labour candidate anyway, it would be better to have the real deal who atleast seems capable of occasionally thinking outside the box.

Deary me. And what would a Tory ever do about London's housing crisis? Particularly a bloody green Tory. Both Tessa and Sadiq have solid housebuilding plans (*the* number one issue in London right now) and have spoken out on the huge inequalities and bainlieuisation in London. What the fuck would Zac Goldsmith do for ordinary Londoners other than whinge a bit about the environment and Heathrow and let things carry on as they are? Faux-provocative statements like this endorsing the status quo stand totally on the side of the oppressor.
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Qassändra
post Jun 23 2015, 10:42 PM
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QUOTE(Danny @ Jun 23 2015, 11:33 PM) *
Sadiq Khan, really? The gap between how well-known Tessa Jowell and Sadiq Khan are, is surely MUCH bigger than the gap between how well-known Andy Burnham and Liz Kendall were at the start of the leadership contest.

(Though I think the polls do reflect that Tessa would have a better chance than Sadiq, simply because she reminds people of the Olympics.)

There's obviously a gap, but with Sadiq, unlike Liz he does at least have something anyone would have known him for before now in London, as he's been Shadow Minister for the Capital for the last four years (which means he's gotten some regional coverage). Again though, it's difficult to gauge the difference. We're comparing selection polling versus 'how would you vote if x and y were the candidate?' polling. The only difference we can tell is that Don't Know goes up 4 points when comparing between Tessa and Zac and Sadiq and Zac.
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Soy Adrián
post Jun 29 2015, 04:39 PM
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Having never lived there, it's hardly accurate for me to say but I get the feeling that Sadiq is fairly well known in London. Prominent local MP, which counts for a lot. He's definitely better known in the city than Kendall is nationally.
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Popchartfreak
post Jun 29 2015, 06:33 PM
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QUOTE(Qassändra @ Jun 23 2015, 11:34 PM) *
Deary me. And what would a Tory ever do about London's housing crisis? Particularly a bloody green Tory. Both Tessa and Sadiq have solid housebuilding plans (*the* number one issue in London right now) and have spoken out on the huge inequalities and bainlieuisation in London. What the fuck would Zac Goldsmith do for ordinary Londoners other than whinge a bit about the environment and Heathrow and let things carry on as they are? Faux-provocative statements like this endorsing the status quo stand totally on the side of the oppressor.


Both parties have assured voters they will build hundreds if thousands of houses in manifestos for elections. To date, to say they have not quite managed to fulfill promises is a little bit of an understatement. To say they've done their utmost to keep housing prices up so the banks don't go under and also those foolish enough to get into mortgage debt by borrowing too much wouldn't be too much of an exaggeration...

or maybe they are just crap at delivering promises.
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Soy Adrián
post Jun 29 2015, 08:32 PM
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QUOTE(popchartfreak @ Jun 29 2015, 07:33 PM) *
Both parties have assured voters they will build hundreds if thousands of houses in manifestos for elections. To date, to say they have not quite managed to fulfill promises is a little bit of an understatement. To say they've done their utmost to keep housing prices up so the banks don't go under and also those foolish enough to get into mortgage debt by borrowing too much wouldn't be too much of an exaggeration...

or maybe they are just crap at delivering promises.

The national picture is different, but below that - and particularly where you've got an elected position wielding as much power as the Mayor - it's far easier to put your money where your mouth is. Cameron might parrot on about building more homes but he won't do a lot about it and it would be difficult even if he wanted to. Goldsmith as Mayor would have all the levers in the world but he wouldn't want to pull them.
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Qassändra
post Jun 29 2015, 10:41 PM
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QUOTE(Soy Adrián @ Jun 29 2015, 09:32 PM) *
The national picture is different, but below that - and particularly where you've got an elected position wielding as much power as the Mayor - it's far easier to put your money where your mouth is. Cameron might parrot on about building more homes but he won't do a lot about it and it would be difficult even if he wanted to. Goldsmith as Mayor would have all the levers in the world but he wouldn't want to pull them.

This, basically. Housing's devolved - so when Tessa says she'll set up an authority equivalent to TFL to be responsible for planning housing to reach these targets, or Sadiq says that he'd enforce it so every house sold off under right to buy in London would have to be replaced with a newly built council house, they actually have the power to come through on those pledges, rather than setting pie in the sky 'we want this in all the country!' targets of several hundred thousand.

Meanwhile, Zac would whimper on about how carbon emissions mean actually we shouldn't build more housing because the rare MINCING NEWTS OF KEW might be a bit upset and stop shagging so prolifically, so if the poor could be ever so considerate as to SOD OFF.
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Popchartfreak
post Jun 30 2015, 01:04 PM
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Councils are already supposed to build new council houses for every one sold - which is fine when the massively cut price Right To Buy's bring in more money than it costs to build a house, but in practise that rarely happens. It's still basically selling off assets at half price to benefit individuals, and replacing them with half or less the number of council properties ever smaller and ever squeezed into smaller and smaller spaces.

Labour should be ending Right To Buy in London and everywhere else because it's insane logic, never mind the new ludicrous tax-payer-supported Right To Buy on Housing Associations. Money out of council coffers that could build twice as many houses just by selling them in the private sector at actual market prices as and when they become empty - which I also don't agree with, but at least it's financially sound and you get an extra property for the country out of it at zero cost. Ish.

Labour are just frightened to say what's financially nuts scared of upsetting every voter on every issue, no courage of what should be their convictions. Tories know they are buying Tory voters courtesy of the tax-payer.

NIMBY's use anything to avoid any lowering of their property values, any argument, anywhere, and unless politicians are prepared to stand up to them houses will never get built. That said, I'm a green-friendly tree-hugger at heart, and if there's a good reason NOT to build on land conservation-wise, I wouldnt necessarily see it as something to be over-ruled if there are alternatives sites available, say farm-land, closed industrial sites, or just high-rise apartments - not ideal to live in but better than being cramped in a bedroom with your parents till you're 40.
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