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> Predicted End Of Year Top 10
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post Jun 30 2015, 06:13 PM
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I did this last year, and it sparked some thought, so I'm doing it again this year.

So with the second half of the musical year in full swing now, what do you predict the End of Year (best selling) top ten to look like?

My ideas would be ..
Cheerleader, Uptown Funk, See You Again to all be givens in the top 10, but what else?

Thanks.
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Dobservance
post Jun 30 2015, 06:22 PM
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Thinking Out Loud & Take Me To Church might both make it as they've have the advantage of the whole year to sell in.

Lean On, Hold My Hand & Love Me Like You Do will all be up there too.
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Colm
post Jun 30 2015, 06:41 PM
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It's quite doubtful that The top current top 4 would miss out considering it hardly ever happens that tracks with those sales/units ever miss out on the end of year Top 10.
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Ethan
post Jun 30 2015, 06:54 PM
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i would've thought 'uptown funk' and 'cheerleader' are near certainties! biggrin.gif

baring a massive surge in streaming or a mega fourth quarter (ala 1997), 'take me to church', 'love me like you do', 'see you again' & 'hold back the river' are looking good to be in there as well~
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post Jun 30 2015, 06:56 PM
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I definitely think that Mark Ronson and Bruno Mars will be able to hold onto the top spot. This week Omi will cross the 1 million mark but his sales are beginning to slow as new Summery songs are beginning to take over and I reckon Uptown Funk will hold on. I also think See You Again, Take Me To Church and Love Me Like You Do will hold on but that's when it gets more difficult. Hold Back the River will probably hang on to the top ten and I reckon Lean on will reach there soon but the rest, I'm not so sure about
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post Jun 30 2015, 09:03 PM
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current YTD top 20 ~

1 - 1,444,000 - Mark Ronson ft Bruno Mars - Uptown Funk
2 - 996,000 - Hozier - Take Me To Church
3 - 994,000 - Omi - Cheerleader
4 - 983,000 - Ellie Goulding - Love Me Like You Do
5 - 856,000 - Wiz Khalifa - See You Again
6 - 742,000 - James Bay - Hold Back The River
7 - 719,000 - Rihanna, Kanye & Paul McCartney - FourFiveSeconds
8 - 677,000 - Maroon 5 - Sugar
9 - 665,000 - Years & Years - King
10 - 655,000 - Ed Sheeran - Thinking Out Loud
11 - 614,000 - Jess Glynne - Hold My Hand
12 - 584,000 - Philip George - Wish You Were Mine
13 - 561,000 - Weeknd - Earned It
14 - 529,000 - Major Lazer - Lean On
15 - 492,000 - Avicii - The Nights
16 - 476,000 - Olly Murs Ft Demi Lovato - Up
17 - 474,000 - Sia / Weeknd / Diplo - Elastic Heart
18 - 445,000 - Kygo ft Conrad - Firestone
19 - 437,000 - Chris Brown ft Tyga - Ayo
20 - 420,000 - Ed Sheeran - Bloodstream


last year's EOY top 10

1 - 1 - 1,854,000 - 2,085,500 - Pharrell Williams - Happy - 30/11/13 - 1
2 - 2 - 1,530,000 - 1,530,000 - Clean Bandit ft Jess Glynne - Rather Be - 01/02/14 - 1
3 - 3 - 1,371,000 - 1,385,000 - John Legend - All Of Me - 12/10/13 - 2
4 - 4 - 1,145,000 - 1,145,000 - Mr Probz - Waves - 03/05/14 - 1
5 - 8 - 1,010,000 - 1,010,000 - Ed Sheeran - Thinking Out Loud - 05/07/14 - 1
6 - 6 - 982,000 - 982,000 - Ella Henderson - Ghost - 21/06/14 - 1
7 - 5 - 978,500 - 978,500 - Pitbull ft Ke$ha - Timber - 11/01/14 - 1
8 - 7 - 971,500 - 971,500 - Sam Smith - Stay With Me - 31/05/14 - 1
9 - 9 - 845,500 - 862,000 - Idina Menzel - Let It Go - 21/12/13 - 11
10 - 12 - 823,500 - 823,500 - Meghan Trainor - All About That Bass - 13/09/14 - 1


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looking at that, the certainties are Uptown Funk, Take Me To Church, Cheerleader, Love Me Like You Do, See You Again. The remainder of the top 10 will be songs that haven't been released yet or are still climbing the YTD. I think Lean On has a very good chance actually. Hold Back The River could scrape it in as well.
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Eric_Blob
post Jun 30 2015, 09:16 PM
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One thing to note is in the physical age songs would usually sell what they did in their main chart run and little else (from what I'm told anyway), so songs released later in the year weren't at a significant disadvantage (unless they were released in December really).

However, in the download age with trickle sales songs from the beginning of the year had an advantage since the biggest hits could maybe get around 100,000 or even more extra sales in the last half of the year, whilst the songs that were big during the last half of the year didn't have that.

In the streaming age this is even more the case, since trickle streams seem to be comparatively even higher than trickle sales were (it's logical, since people will continue listening to a song they love for years, whilst you can only download a song once (not accounting for alternate versions/remixes or obsessive fans who multi-buy, etc.).

So going by that, I think the current YTD top 6 will be guaranteed to be in the year-end top 10. I've not heard Hold Back The River, but I assume it's the sort of song that will have longevity. I don't think FourFiveSeconds and below will though. It'd honestly be a bit weird to me if FourFiveSeconds does better year-end than Diamonds did (even if FFS was released near the beginning of the year and Diamonds near the end).

On the other hand, I can't really think of 4 up-coming songs that are going to be huge enough to sell 700,000+ in 6 months. I'm sure there'll be something, but usually you have a good idea of what they might be a while in advance, and I can't think of anything. I don't think House Every Weekend of the new Little Mix single would do THAT well. I'm probably forgetting something obvious! laugh.gif


This post has been edited by Eric_Blob: Jun 30 2015, 09:20 PM
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TheGhostPensmith
post Jul 1 2015, 01:02 PM
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QUOTE(Eric_Blob @ Jun 30 2015, 10:16 PM) *
On the other hand, I can't really think of 4 up-coming songs that are going to be huge enough to sell 700,000+ in 6 months. I'm sure there'll be something, but usually you have a good idea of what they might be a while in advance, and I can't think of anything. I don't think House Every Weekend of the new Little Mix single would do THAT well. I'm probably forgetting something obvious! laugh.gif


I can think of one which I'm pretty sure - or at least hope I'm sure - will be number one and most likely end up in the top 10 best sellers by year end - the Charlie Puth & Meghan Trainor record 'Marvin Gaye'. That's released at the beginning of August but it's already on Spotify and doing rather well from exposure on the Fiat TV ad. Everyone else I've encountered on Buzzjack thus far with regards to it absolutely hates it (on virtue of the fact that Heart FM will hammer it to death if it becomes a hit. Which is a bit like hating an Ed Sheeran record on the same principle and thus stupid. Go to BBC 6 Music if you're that bothered) but I love it.
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post Jul 1 2015, 01:43 PM
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I agree that these 5 are 99% guaranteed the top-10 spot already:

1 - 1,444,000 - Mark Ronson ft Bruno Mars - Uptown Funk
2 - 996,000 - Hozier - Take Me To Church
3 - 994,000 - Omi - Cheerleader
4 - 983,000 - Ellie Goulding - Love Me Like You Do
5 - 856,000 - Wiz Khalifa - See You Again

And they are all still selling 10k+ "units" per week.

And indeed with more and more "spread" chart runs all the earlier releases have a huge advantage (with actual sales falling too). So I'll try to analyse the current 6-10 to see who has the potential to make it.

6-10 region, this is how they are selling currently:

6 - 742,000 - James Bay - Hold Back The River: #25, ~17k. If he sells 8k per week averagely in the remaining 26 weeks he will sell 208k. Overall it's 950k which should be more than enough
7 - 719,000 - Rihanna, Kanye & Paul McCartney - FourFiveSeconds: #51, ~9k. If she sells 4k per week, she'll sell 104k, overall it's ~825k, and I think she won't make it.
8 - 677,000 - Maroon 5 - Sugar: #22, ~20k. They could sell at lease 9k per week, which is 234k + current 677k, that's 911k. They could very well make it.
9 - 665,000 - Years & Years - King: #28, ~16k. They'll sell like 7k per week, and that's 182k extra, that's 847k overall. Like with Rihanna I think they'll fail to make it, but will be just outside.
10 - 655,000 - Ed Sheeran - Thinking Out Loud: #34, ~15k. That's the tricky one, as I'm sure he'll still sell very well, like maybe 9k per week. It would make him on 890k overall and I think it would be enough for the top-10.

Also:
14 - 529,000 - Major Lazer - Lean On - still in the weekly top-5. They sold almost 48k this week but their sales will fall in a more harsh way than the songs above because their sales are still on the peak. If they averagely sell 15k per week for the remaining period they'll be on 920k, which is higher than projected sales by M5 and Ed.

I don't see anything else in the YTD top-40 troubling the year-end top-10.

So I'd say I think James Bay will also definitely make it. Second favourites are Major Lazer (like 90% probability), Maroon 5 and Ed (80% probability). And I'm pretty much sure Years & Years and Rihanna will fall out.

There is a scenario when only 1 song released in the second half of the year can make the year-end top-10 (with the top-5 + James Bay, M5, Ed and Major Lazer all making it), and I can very well see that this scenario is very probable actually. But I'm pretty sure at least another one or maybe two more songs will sneak in, instead of Ed or/and Maroon 5.
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