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> The X Factor Series 12 Odds
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Liаm
post Oct 19 2015, 12:32 AM
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Thought I'd get one started to track how things are going in the odds!

11/4 Louisa Johnson
5/1 Che Chesterman
11/2 4th Impact
11/2 Seann Miley Moore
8/1 Keira Weathers
16/1 Anton Stephens
16/1 Jennifer Phillips
20/1 Simon Lynch
25/1 Ben Clark
25/1 Lauren Murray
25/1 Mason Noise
28/1 Alien
33/1 Ebru Gursoy
33/1 Havva Rebke
33/1 Josh Daniel
50/1 BEKLN
50/1 Chloe Paige
50/1 Max Stone
50/1 The First Kings
66/1 Bupsi
66/1 Kerri-Anne Phillips
80/1 Menn On Point
80/1 Monica Michaels
80/1 Silver Tone
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TheGrinch
post Oct 19 2015, 02:42 AM
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Surprised Monica is so low considering the amount of airtime.
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sigmahqfan
post Oct 19 2015, 04:59 AM
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How do you read that?

Who is in the lead?
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sigmahqfan
post Oct 19 2015, 07:53 AM
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Louisa is in the lead?

Am I reading that correctly?

Or is it Che? huh.gif
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Dobservance
post Oct 19 2015, 10:28 AM
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Yes Louisa is currently bookies' favourite.
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Liаm
post Oct 19 2015, 11:11 AM
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QUOTE(sigmahqfan @ Oct 19 2015, 08:53 AM) *
Louisa is in the lead?

Am I reading that correctly?

Or is it Che? huh.gif

Yep, Louisa is favourite, top is favourite and bottom is least favourite! It can get confusing though when not every number is x/1, some are like 11/2 and I never know exactly how to compare but I know the order because the bookies also list them in order!
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dancember
post Oct 19 2015, 12:35 PM
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I'm guessing 11/2 means 5.5/1 but they don't want to put in decimal points?

Which means Louisa is 2.75/1 to win
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Liаm
post Oct 19 2015, 02:19 PM
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QUOTE(Danvicii @ Oct 19 2015, 01:35 PM) *
I'm guessing 11/2 means 5.5/1 but they don't want to put in decimal points?

Which means Louisa is 2.75/1 to win

It's that you get 2 for every 11 you put on, that gets awkward to calculate so usually I use an odds calculator and say that I'm outing 10 on each, then you use the returns for comparative purposes.
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Liаm
post Oct 26 2015, 04:16 AM
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9/4 Louisa Johnson
9/2 4th Impact
5/1 Che Chesterman
6/1 Seann Miley Moore
7/1 Anton Stephans
10/1 Lauren Murray
12/1 Kiera Weathers
16/1 Mason Noise
20/1 Alien Uncovered
25/1 Max Stone
66/1 Bupsi
66/1 Reggie & Bollie
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sigmahqfan
post Oct 26 2015, 05:08 AM
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4th Impact being so high is truly tragic.

I hope their support on youtube and twitter are from Filipinos.
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Liаm
post Nov 8 2015, 06:18 PM
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In brackets I'll put the return on a 10 bet, for comparative purposes:

Winner:
5/4 Louisa Johnson (22.50)
3/1 Che Chesterman (40)
5/1 Lauren Murray (60)
12/1 4th Impakt (130)
14/1 Seann Miley Moore (150)
20/1 Max Stone (210)
25/1 Anton Stephans (260)
28/1 Mason Noise (290)
33/1 Reggie & Bollie (340)
40/1 Monica Michael (410)
80/1 Kiera Weathers (810)

Next elimination:
11/10 Kiera Weathers (21)
15/8 Monica Michael (28.75)
6/1 Mason Noise (70)
14/1 Max Stone (150)
16/1 Anton Stephans (170)
33/1 4th Impakt (340)
33/1 Reggie & Bollie (340)
40/1 Seann Miley Moore (410)
100/1 Che Chesterman (1110)
100/1 Lauren Murray (1110)
100/1 Louisa Johnson (1110)

Acts in the bottom 3:
1/5 Kiera Weathers
2/5 Monica Michael
10/11 Mason Noise
2/1 Max Stone
4/1 Anton Stephans
4/1 Reggie & Bollie
4/1 Seann Miley Moore
5/1 4th Impact
16/1 Lauren Murray
25/1 Che Chesterman
25/1 Louisa Johnson


Odds very close for the bottom 3! I know the bookies aren't the be all and end all, but I can't help but think that Mason and the two overs will escape and 4th Impact could be a shock bottom 3?? Depends if they've sorted out the international voting shiz laugh.gif I mean Max seems to be selling on iTunes, and that should see him safe as it's only week 2. Anton will probably get votes for being completely bussed, sympathy really, and Mason has the "he iz fit" vote. I'm probably wrong but hmm can't shake it laugh.gif
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Dobservance
post Nov 8 2015, 06:49 PM
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No I think that's definitely a reasonable prediction, there'll be one shock in the bottom 3 for an original fave.
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Rooney
post Nov 8 2015, 06:54 PM
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Is it definitely a double again tonight?

Kiera leaving at 11/10 looks easy money.
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MrIndependent
post Nov 8 2015, 07:17 PM
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Do those who bet odds ever receive inside information?

I hope the shock favourite in the bottom three that we're referring to will be Anton, which wouldn't be such a surprise. I think that Kiera and Monica are obvious choices for the bottom three, but Kiera may cause a surprise since the voting public like sympathy votes after she was bottom two last week. I think that Fourth Impact topped the votes last week and whilst their performance last night was underwhelming and also the first one, resulting in people possibly not seeing it, they won't be anywhere near the bottom two. Seann could provide a shock, and Reggie n' Bollie are loved by loads, including me, but I think we are giving them the benefit of the doubt sorely because they are a novelty act. Mason isn't as controversial as people make out and he has a strong fanbase, and if he is bottom three the judges are likely to save him. I still think that Max could be an option; I don't think he really has a fanbase other than elderly people who will watch the show just hoping that he gets through and not actually voting. His download sold well on iTunes last week, but rumour has it that he only scraped through; there were the downloads of acts who were frontloaded, then there were others like Mason, Lauren and Reggie n' Bollie that sold well over time, which tells me that they are appealing to the general public despite the majority of Buzzjack thinking that Mason and Reggie n' Bollie could be bottom two. Louisa and Che will obviously be safe.
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Liаm
post Nov 8 2015, 07:22 PM
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QUOTE(Rooney @ Nov 8 2015, 06:54 PM) *
Is it definitely a double again tonight?

Kiera leaving at 11/10 looks easy money.

Yep it's a double again!

QUOTE(MrIndependent @ Nov 8 2015, 07:17 PM) *
Do those who bet odds ever receive inside information?

I hope the shock favourite in the bottom three that we're referring to will be Anton, which wouldn't be such a surprise. I think that Kiera and Monica are obvious choices for the bottom three, but Kiera may cause a surprise since the voting public like sympathy votes after she was bottom two last week. I think that Fourth Impact topped the votes last week and whilst their performance last night was underwhelming and also the first one, resulting in people possibly not seeing it, they won't be anywhere near the bottom two. Seann could provide a shock, and Reggie n' Bollie are loved by loads, including me, but I think we are giving them the benefit of the doubt sorely because they are a novelty act. Mason isn't as controversial as people make out and he has a strong fanbase, and if he is bottom three the judges are likely to save him. I still think that Max could be an option; I don't think he really has a fanbase other than elderly people who will watch the show just hoping that he gets through and not actually voting. His download sold well on iTunes last week, but rumour has it that he only scraped through; there were the downloads of acts who were frontloaded, then there were others like Mason, Lauren and Reggie n' Bollie that sold well over time, which tells me that they are appealing to the general public despite the majority of Buzzjack thinking that Mason and Reggie n' Bollie could be bottom two. Louisa and Che will obviously be safe.

Nobody has said that Reggie & Bollie will be bottom 2 laugh.gif I think they're one of the safest, not on a Louisa or Che level but still safe.

And as for inside information, probably. I remember with previous shocks like Hannah Barrett being bottom 2 in week 3, her odds shortened dramatcally in the day so people thought that at that pont they must have been getting some inside info. And with Bake Off, which is differnt but still, there was a leak of the winner apparently (I didn't see who it was so I don't know if it was correct) as it's pre-recorded, and their odds dropped a lot as well with a certain bookie.
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MrIndependent
post Nov 8 2015, 07:34 PM
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Interesting! Thanks for this post, Liam.

I will rephrase that to many on Buzzjack WISHING they'd be in the bottom two? I have seen a lot of positive comments, but here at Buzzjack and through other forums too they seem like a really polarising act. I also didn't realise that they were called Menn On Poinnt in the audition stages, because I didn't think they were good enough for me to follow or be interested in them. I wish that the producers would've put some time aside for them to explain these silly name changes.
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Liаm
post Nov 22 2015, 05:52 PM
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Winner

1/2 Louisa Johnson
5/1 Lauren Murray
11/2 Che Chesterman
10/1 Reggie & Bollie
16/1 4th Impact
40/1 Anton Stephans

Odds have Louisa as 4x more likely than Lauren (15 return on 10 compared to 60 return) to win! ohmy.gif

Next elimination

2/5 Anton Stephans
11/4 4th Impact
9/1 Che Chesterman
16/1 Lauren Murray
20/1 Reggie & Bollie
66/1 Louisa Johnson

Bottom 2
2/5 Anton Stephans
8/11 4th Impact
10/11 Che Chesterman
3/1 Lauren Murray
6/1 Reggie & Bollie
33/1 Louisa Johnson

Bottom 2 combo

2/1 Anton / 4th Impact
3/1 4th Impact / Che
3/1 Anton / Che
11/1 Anton / Lauren
14/1 4th Impact / Lauren
16/1 Anton / Reggie & Bollie
16/1 Che / Lauren
33/1 4th Impact / Reggie & Bollie
50/1 Che / Reggi & Bollie
66/1 Lauren / Reggie & Bollie
80/1 Anton / Louisa
100/1 4th Impact / Louisa
125/1 Che / Louisa
150/1 Lauren / Louisa
150/1 Louisa / Reggie & Bollie

Che not far off overtaking 4I on the bottom 2 and his odds are shortening whereas theirs are lengthening ohmy.gif I'd love him to be a shock bottom 2 really, I like him but he wasn't that great last night and I'm really bored of the dated ballads every week as i've said.
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Jack
post Nov 22 2015, 06:30 PM
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Have we ever had a female top 2? ohmy.gif
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Noahspike
post Nov 22 2015, 07:40 PM
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QUOTE(Jack @ Nov 22 2015, 06:30 PM) *
Have we ever had a female top 2? ohmy.gif

Nope. And 2011 was the only year that two out of the final three were female (Little Mix and Amelia Lily).
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Jack
post Nov 22 2015, 07:42 PM
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I remember there's been an all male Top 5 (Rylan, Union J, James Arthur, Jahmene Douglas and Christopher Maloney) so it'd be nice for a Top 2 female. Even if Louisa and Lauren are nothing that special imo.
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