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Christmas #1 2015 early predictions
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dancember
post Dec 12 2015, 01:53 PM
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This week's chart isn't too exciting but next week we have the Christmas Chart Battle.

I've included the artists that are getting good odds in the poll, but I've also left an 'other' option.

Current odds:

10/11 X Factor Winner
5/1 NHS Choir
7/1 Justin Bieber
10/1 John Williams (Star Wars Theme)
12/1 Eagles of Death Metal
12/1 Grace
14/1 Adele
25/1 Her Majesty The Queen (A Tribute)
25/1 Military Wives
33/1 Bob Dylan
33/1 Kylie Minogue feat. James Corden
33/1 Robin Thicke feat. Nicki Minaj
33/1 Scouting For Girls
50/1 Cilla Black
50/1 Crowded House

I expect it'll be any easy victory for X Factor Winner this year unless they're only popular on a Sam Bailey level (i.e. if Ché Chesterman wins) in which case Justin Bieber could put up a strong fight helped by his massive streaming. It would be the eighth time an X Factor winner has the Christmas #1, and the third consecutively following 'Something I Need' and 'Skyscraper'.

NHS Choir I expect will go top 40 but I presume their fans won't be streaming this much so that will hit it hard. Likewise with the John Williams campaign which will probably miss the top 40 altogether. I don't expect EODM will do anything either, their last campaign missed the official top 50 despite being a top 20 sales hit.
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Dobservance
post Dec 12 2015, 01:55 PM
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Probably X Factor winner because its 2nd week streams will be greater so won't be at as much of a disadvantage to Bieber.

Also why are there even odds for Robin Thicke & Scouting For Girls? laugh.gif Not even 33 billion/1 odds would make me risk a quid on.


This post has been edited by Doboggan: Dec 12 2015, 01:56 PM
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Hadji
post Dec 12 2015, 03:10 PM
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Let's not forget that the winners single doesn't get streamed a lot. If they're on the same level as Sam Bailey, they definitely won't get it. Last X Factor winner who spent multiple weeks at the top was James Arthur three years ago
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Envoirment
post Dec 12 2015, 03:15 PM
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I can't realy see the X-factor winner getting it. It'll be their second week and I think first week sales will be ~150k (only has 4 and a bit days of sales) and then second week ~100k. I think Justin will be able to do 100k+ that week too and get the Christmas #1. Although I hope it's Adele that gets the Christmas #1. Would be great if she could get the #1 song and album Christmas week. Perhaps they can reduce the song to 59p? biggrin.gif
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SLlewellyn
post Dec 12 2015, 04:38 PM
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I'd quite like to see the X-Factor winner claim multiple weeks at #1, but only if it's Louisa (and the cover actually sounds half decent). It'd be a real testament to Bieber's domination in 2015 though if he could claw back the number-one in time for Christmas.
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zenon
post Dec 12 2015, 04:54 PM
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Louisa will easily claim the Xmas number 1 if she wins tomorrow.
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Hadji
post Dec 12 2015, 05:11 PM
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QUOTE(zenon @ Dec 12 2015, 04:54 PM) *
Louisa will easily claim the Xmas number 1 if she wins tomorrow.

If the chart day didn't move to Friday, XF would get Xmas #1. The winner has to hang on for another week for that to happen. James Arthur was the last winner to spend multiple weeks at the top and with the winners song hardly being streamed, I don't think so
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Michael Bubré
post Dec 12 2015, 06:16 PM
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I'm putting an imaginary fiver on Bieber getting it. Surprised his odds are as long as that.

(That said, it probably will be Reggie N Bollie).
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Ethan
post Dec 12 2015, 07:34 PM
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it's hard to look beyond the x factor winner's single, although if for whatever reason it under performs that could potentially open the door for bieber ~ either way it's shaping up to be yet another uninspiring festive chart topper~
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Winter Wombatlan...
post Dec 12 2015, 07:38 PM
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If Louisa wins, then I think she'll get it as they'll be picking up a few more streams the second week than the first, Love Yourself will obviously be really close behind and overtake pretty swiftly afterwards though.

With streaming growing so much, I do wonder if the Christmas number 1 race will ever be exciting again, rapidly becoming just another week going by such little competition out that week sad.gif

These Christmas number 1 campaigns just aren't gonna work in the era of streaming, even just top 40 looks a challenge now. Can see the gradually dying out unless they get with the times a bit~


This post has been edited by Cheznuts: Dec 12 2015, 07:40 PM
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777666jason
post Dec 12 2015, 07:56 PM
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Streaming huge maybe a Christmas song Mariah perhaps na jk
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gooddelta
post Dec 12 2015, 08:17 PM
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Could be the closest Xmas chart since Rage vs. Joe.

I could imagine the X Factor winner clearing around 90-100k on the second week and Love Yourself will probably be level pegging.
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ChristmasEve201
post Dec 12 2015, 08:28 PM
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Think the NHS Choir could take off!

The Couteeners Christmas song - Winter Wonderland is a really good track, people should give it a listen!


This post has been edited by Christmaseve201: Dec 12 2015, 08:29 PM
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ChristmasEve201
post Dec 12 2015, 08:30 PM
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QUOTE(Doboggan @ Dec 12 2015, 01:55 PM) *
Probably X Factor winner because its 2nd week streams will be greater so won't be at as much of a disadvantage to Bieber.

Also why are there even odds for Robin Thicke & Scouting For Girls? laugh.gif Not even 33 billion/1 odds would make me risk a quid on.


They don't have a chance but S outing for Girls have a Xmas single out - Christmas in the Air (Tonight)!
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___∆___
post Dec 13 2015, 01:19 AM
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Never underestimate the power of Adele even with a near million selling former #1 - XFactor is on a major slump, The other contenders for #1 wouldn't generate enough streams aside from Bieber and we have seen time and time again Adele achieve the impossible, I don't think she will make it but nothing would surprise me with her especially if she pulls off an epic performance.
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Houdini
post Dec 14 2015, 02:15 AM
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Stormzy - Shut Up ph34r.gif It will probably be Justin Bieber because of streaming but Louisa Johnson will be the sales #1. It's gonna be quite boring for Christmas chart standards whatever the outcome anyway.
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SmileyKylie
post Dec 14 2015, 10:28 PM
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Got to be Bieber no?

Just wait until school kids are off school and streaming all day all night next week.......
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Houdini
post Jan 10 2016, 07:41 PM
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Shocking that only 2 people voted for NHS Choir.
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777666jason
post Jan 10 2016, 08:46 PM
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QUOTE(Hazza Chapman @ Jan 10 2016, 07:41 PM) *
Shocking that only 2 people voted for NHS Choir.


Guess people have voted just now says 5 laugh.gif
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liamk97
post Jan 10 2016, 09:02 PM
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Before anyone else votes, this is the final result:

X Factor Winner | 27 | 36.00%
Adele | 9 | 12.00%
Justin Bieber | 26 | 34.67%
NHS Choir | 5 | 6.67%
Grace | 2 | 2.67%
John Williams (Star Wars Theme) | 2 | 2.67%
Eagles Of Death Metal | 1 | 1.33%
Other | 3 | 4.00%
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