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Qassändra
post Jan 2 2016, 11:51 AM
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Advance warning that an oh-so-cool 'same shit as always' is neither a hot take nor especially witty.
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Qassändra
post Jan 2 2016, 12:26 PM
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My (likely deeply inaccurate) crystal ball forecasts the following:

1. The Conservatives won't be anywhere near as split by the EU referendum as the media are predicting, as it's a fight everyone knows is going to happen anyway, the differences (and leaders of each side) are already fairly well established, and it is something that doesn't lend itself well to internal warfare as the arbiters of victory are the public and not the Conservative Party membership. The highest profile scrap will be within the Leave side on the Conservatives as figures grapple to be the de facto leader of it ahead of the leadership election.

2. The EU referendum will be a mildly solid win for Remain (but within the ten point margin) despite Cameron not winning all that many concessions from the EU aside from symbolic ones.

3. Nigel Farage will allege corruption and fraud but resign shortly thereafter anyway, to be replaced by Paul Nuttall. Farage will go on to host a weekly phone-in show on LBC.

4. The Liberal Democrats will continue to attempt to capitalise on big policy scraps and events by either taking the most transparently populist position of either the public or the media. They will continue to be mostly irrelevant until a brief period of will-they-won't-they over a close vote in the Commons which will end in a government defeat, after which they will fail to capitalise on the renewed media interest and resume being irrelevant.

5. Cameron will not take Corbyn up on his lose-lose-lose offer of annual debates, in part because it will incorrectly be taken as a sign of him being scared of Corbyn.

6. Jeremy Corbyn will still be leader of the Labour Party at the end of 2016, despite swathes of losses in council seats in May, an obliteration in the Scottish Parliament elections where Labour lose all of their constituency seats in Holyrood and narrowly finish second ahead of the Conservatives on seats and votes, and a loss of Labour's majority in the Welsh Parliament elections (though with Labour staying in government with support from Plaid). A combination of a narrow win for Sadiq Khan in the London mayoral race and there being no clear alternative candidate to Jeremy who could win the membership keeps him in place.

7. Jeremy Corbyn will say something so earth-shatteringly vacuous and stupid it breaks previous records for a Leader of the Opposition (all set by him a year prior). There will be an inconsequential media storm and everyone will have the same opinion they already had of Jeremy, only even more entrenched.

8. The SNP - and Nicola Sturgeon in particular - will continue to have a Teflon resilience to any and all scandal, and secure a larger majority at Holyrood in May. Natalie McGarry will resign her seat and the SNP will win the resulting by-election in Glasgow East just as resoundingly as they did before.

9. Natalie Bennett will not restand to be leader of the Green Party at their leadership election in September. Caroline Lucas will be re-elected leader of the Green Party unopposed.

10. Donald Trump, Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio will have a nip-and-tuck battle for the Republican nomination which goes to convention. Despite Marco Rubio narrowly finishing with the most nominations and having overwhelming support from the RNC, Ted Cruz gains the nomination off the back of the lion's share of Donald Trump's delegates. An outraged Trump declares he will run as an independent candidate for the Presidency and Hillary Clinton wins by a landslide in November. Republicans take on a new November Criminals origin myth for the 21st century and in 2030 there are still wingnuts on internet boards who insist Cruz would've been the greatest President ever if it hadn't been for Trump.

11. The UK polling average at the end the year is as follows: CON 40%, LAB 29%, UKIP 16%, LDEM 6%, SNP 5%, GRN 4%
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Suedehead2
post Jan 2 2016, 01:23 PM
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QUOTE(Qassändra @ Jan 2 2016, 12:26 PM) *
My (likely deeply inaccurate) crystal ball forecasts the following:

7. Jeremy Corbyn will say something so earth-shatteringly vacuous and stupid it breaks previous records for a Leader of the Opposition (all set by him a year prior). There will be an inconsequential media storm and everyone will have the same opinion they already had of Jeremy, only even more entrenched.

If Corbyn said anything even more vacuous than "Let sunshine win the day" last year, I must have missed it.
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Qassändra
post Jan 2 2016, 01:44 PM
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By vacuous I mean an actually vacuous political proposal rather than just inept rhetoric, a la 'we should have a ceasefire with ISIS'. If we were including rhetoric even the biggest beasts have had their moments...
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Brett-Butler
post Jan 2 2016, 02:06 PM
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QUOTE(Qassändra @ Jan 2 2016, 01:26 PM) *
10. Donald Trump, Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio will have a nip-and-tuck battle for the Republican nomination which goes to convention. Despite Marco Rubio narrowly finishing with the most nominations and having overwhelming support from the RNC, Ted Cruz gains the nomination off the back of the lion's share of Donald Trump's delegates. An outraged Trump declares he will run as an independent candidate for the Presidency and Hillary Clinton wins by a landslide in November. Republicans take on a new November Criminals origin myth for the 21st century and in 2030 there are still wingnuts on internet boards who insist Cruz would've been the greatest President ever if it hadn't been for Trump.


I disagree. When Donald Trump doesn't get the Republican nomination (and it's a when, not an if), I very much doubt he's going to run as an independent. Although there's been some conspiracy theories that Donald Trump is secretly running to make Hillary Clinton more electable, I believe that the opposite is true. By taking such extreme positions, Trump is making the other Republican candidates look much more reasonable in comparison, therefore encouraging the more moderate floating voters who may flirt with the idea of voting Republican to do so.

It's somewhat similar to how the BNP led to large gains for UKIP in the last election. Although I don't subscribe to the idea that UKIP are just "the BNP in nice suits", their policies on immigration were closer to other sizeable parties on the matter, so when UKIP set itself up as the acceptable face of anti-immigration rhetoric, it brought in voters from both the far right, but also more moderate voters who might have had qualms about immigration but were turned off by the BNP's overt racism - banning ex-members of the party was one of UKIP's canniest moves. I also think that electing Corbyn for Labour is intending to do similar things for Labour - he's never going to be popular, but when someone comes along to lead Labour who's more left wing than Miliband, Blair et al., but markedly not as left-wing as Corbyn (and makes sure to make that distinction very clear), that person will be a potential new Prime Minister.

But back on point, I think the Republicans will win in 2016, something which was decided on June 26th 2015.
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Qassändra
post Jan 2 2016, 04:07 PM
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QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Jan 2 2016, 03:06 PM) *
But back on point, I think the Republicans will win in 2016, something which was decided on June 26th 2015.

You think GAY MARRIAGE made a Republican victory in 2016 an inevitability?! There really aren't enough religious 2012 Democrats who have that as their chief voting issue.

Plus everything else you mention ignores that if, for example, Ted Cruz were to be the candidate, he's still someone who's arguably just as extreme as Donald Trump, only with the exception that he isn't an open racist. Just because someone more extreme than him exists doesn't make someone like Ted much more of an appealing prospect to moderates - it's worth recalling that despite UKIP's rise, their image was still extreme enough that they didn't even get a majority of those who considered immigration to be the most important issue in deciding their vote.

QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Jan 2 2016, 03:06 PM) *
I disagree. When Donald Trump doesn't get the Republican nomination (and it's a when, not an if), I very much doubt he's going to run as an independent. Although there's been some conspiracy theories that Donald Trump is secretly running to make Hillary Clinton more electable, I believe that the opposite is true.

Why? There's little other obvious reason for him to insist he would willingly run as an independent. And if there's anybody out there with the supersized ego to run for president in response to a presumed slight, it would be Donald Trump in response to the RNC moving heaven and earth to stop him.
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Brett-Butler
post Jan 2 2016, 05:08 PM
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QUOTE(Qassändra @ Jan 2 2016, 05:07 PM) *
You think GAY MARRIAGE made a Republican victory in 2016 an inevitability?! There really aren't enough religious 2012 Democrats who have that as their chief voting issue.


It will play a part, because the issue was decided by the Supreme Court rather than through a democratic vote, therefore mandating it as right enshrined in the constitution, it means that a) It's not going to be an issue that the 2016 election will be fought on (which is good news for Republicans, as their stance on the issue is more toxic to Americans as a whole), and b) people those who lean right on economical issues but are strongly in favour of same-sex marriage can vote for them safe in the knowledge that they won't be in any position to overturn it. Plus, it allows the Republicans to shift its focus to defending "religious liberty", which would curry much more favour with the electorate.
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Qassändra
post Jan 2 2016, 05:28 PM
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True, but I think whatever happens the Republicans are likely to carry on being batshit crazy on cultural issues in general (with the sole possible exception of a Rubio candidacy), meaning anyone who had gay marriage opposition as a dealbreaker will probably still be wary of the GOP, given it's not a position people tend to hold in isolation these days. If you're in favour of gay marriage, you're probably more likely to be sympathetic to Black Lives Matter, Common Core et al than if you oppose gay marriage.
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Popchartfreak
post Jan 2 2016, 09:07 PM
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10 of the 11 points seem credible to me, though the idea that the Libdems are populist blow-with-the-wind politically is ridiculous, they have paid a heavy price for being precisely NOT populist and sticking to convictions wherever they haven't had to compromise in order to do the best for the country. I would have thought all of the evidence we've had on u-turns from the two main parties should by now have made that perfectly clear. And that's only in the last 12 months! Include the last 10 years and it's a novel each. The libdems at best are a booklet, or pamphlet.

Libdems have always been about doing what's right (membership I mean) rather than what's expedient in order to gain power, if anything they have been guilty of naivety and reason faced with the ruthlessness of the rest.
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Suedehead2
post Jan 2 2016, 09:14 PM
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QUOTE(popchartfreak @ Jan 2 2016, 09:07 PM) *
10 of the 11 points seem credible to me, though the idea that the Libdems are populist blow-with-the-wind politically is ridiculous, they have paid a heavy price for being precisely NOT populist and sticking to convictions wherever they haven't had to compromise in order to do the best for the country. I would have thought all of the evidence we've had on u-turns from the two main parties should by now have made that perfectly clear. And that's only in the last 12 months! Include the last 10 years and it's a novel each. The libdems at best are a booklet, or pamphlet.

Libdems have always been about doing what's right (membership I mean) rather than what's expedient in order to gain power, if anything they have been guilty of naivety and reason faced with the ruthlessness of the rest.

Indeed. The Lib Dems' position on the snooper's charter, refugees and the Human Rights Act can hardly be called populist.
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Soy Adrián
post Jan 3 2016, 09:36 AM
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I think it was more a prediction off the basis that Tim Farron's leadership so far has shown exactly those characteristics - even go so far as to say that the tax credits u-turn was a Lib Dem victory.
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Popchartfreak
post Jan 3 2016, 09:47 AM
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QUOTE(Soy Adrián @ Jan 3 2016, 09:36 AM) *
I think it was more a prediction off the basis that Tim Farron's leadership so far has shown exactly those characteristics - even go so far as to say that the tax credits u-turn was a Lib Dem victory.


so Tim, not the Libdems, is guilty of spin on one topic. Hardly evidence of anything much given spin is a way of life for the Tories and Labour. A change of leader always shows a change of emphasis in a party, that's inevitable. Corbyn anyone? Or are his policies exactly the same as Miliband and his the same as Blair? Yeh, right....

Kettle calling the frying pan. So he's choosing to play the same spin game (based on evidence of one minor comment). Boo hoo.
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Doctor Blind
post Jan 3 2016, 10:18 AM
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You're perfectly happy to not contest the Liberal Democrats being described as mostly irrelevant though.. (which at present, they are).

Do you really think the referendum will be held this year Tyron? I think that is what Cameron will want but it will likely be end up delayed until 2017. Especially whilst immigration figures continue at record levels, of course, needed for Osborne's very weak growth to continue.

Also I think Sadiq Kahn will be mayor by a margin greater than expected. London did very well for Labour in May (yes, I know - new leader. Doubt it will actually have much impact despite how much everyone bangs on about it).
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Suedehead2
post Jan 3 2016, 11:36 AM
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QUOTE(Soy Adrián @ Jan 3 2016, 09:36 AM) *
I think it was more a prediction off the basis that Tim Farron's leadership so far has shown exactly those characteristics - even go so far as to say that the tax credits u-turn was a Lib Dem victory.

In the election campaign, a Lib Dem minister warned that the Tories would cut tax credits. That's why Cameron was asked about them on Question Time. Therefore, opposing the cuts was perfectly consistent. Yes, Tim Farron claimed them as a Lib Dem victory. However, as was demonstrated when he was on Have I Got News For You, he was only one of many to claim the credit. In the sense that the Lib Dems still have a major presence in the Lords, his claim was not entirely without justification.
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Qassändra
post Jan 3 2016, 03:50 PM
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Tbh I had a big problem with Labour claiming credit for the tax credit u-turn too. Only three can really take credit for it in my eyes: Stig Abell, the Lords and Heidi Allen.
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Qassändra
post Jan 3 2016, 03:51 PM
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QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Jan 3 2016, 11:18 AM) *
Also I think Sadiq Kahn will be mayor by a margin greater than expected. London did very well for Labour in May (yes, I know - new leader. Doubt it will actually have much impact despite how much everyone bangs on about it).

Lower turnout for mayorals though. And the Evening Standard's cannons haven't quite been lined up for Sadiq yet, but give it a week or two and it'll be pure blitz until May.

QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Jan 3 2016, 11:18 AM) *
Do you really think the referendum will be held this year Tyron? I think that is what Cameron will want but it will likely be end up delayed until 2017. Especially whilst immigration figures continue at record levels, of course, needed for Osborne's very weak growth to continue.

The agreement's all lined up to happen at the EU end by the summer. The longer he leaves it after then the longer there is for the concessions to be picked to death, and the longer there is for the government to lose its current popularity and the referendum to become a referendum on the government.
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Popchartfreak
post Jan 3 2016, 06:23 PM
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QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Jan 3 2016, 10:18 AM) *
You're perfectly happy to not contest the Liberal Democrats being described as mostly irrelevant though.. (which at present, they are).


Not at all, I don't have a problem with accuracy. At present they are mostly irrelevant. They've been irrelevant before. As I've said before nothing in politics is forever, a lesson which Labour cluelessly forgot when they targeted the wrong party and paid the price. Labour could just as easily end up irrelevant if they don't get their act together. Jezza has made promises to attack the Tories. I look forward to it, certainly about time....!
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Soy Adrián
post Jan 3 2016, 08:02 PM
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In fairness, aside from 2011 and that bizarre attack ad in 2014 I think Labour's national campaign in the last parliament was pretty Tory-focused. It's sort of necessary as the main opposition party to attack the main government party if you want to be seen as an alternative.

On a side note, attention could have been diverted to UKIP a little more.
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Christmas Cherry...
post Jan 3 2016, 08:28 PM
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QUOTE(Qassändra @ Jan 2 2016, 12:26 PM) *
3. Nigel Farage will allege corruption and fraud but resign shortly thereafter anyway, to be replaced by Paul Nuttall. Farage will go on to host a weekly phone-in show on LBC.


There could seriously just be a thread on different things Farage has claimed is corruption. Saw an article earlier about how he claimed his car was tampered with, as an "assassination attempt".
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Popchartfreak
post Jan 4 2016, 01:36 PM
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QUOTE(Soy Adrián @ Jan 3 2016, 08:02 PM) *
In fairness, aside from 2011 and that bizarre attack ad in 2014 I think Labour's national campaign in the last parliament was pretty Tory-focused. It's sort of necessary as the main opposition party to attack the main government party if you want to be seen as an alternative.

On a side note, attention could have been diverted to UKIP a little more.


Well everything is what sticks in the mind rather than what is posted in campaigns, and the student fees furore was the single most blown-up issue by Labour and AN Others, which ultimately did the Libdems in, along with having the gall to go into government with the Tories. The Labour anti-Tory campaign was pretty ineffectual throughout, given there were only a few minor issues that stood out as being radically different from the Tories - and that includes cuts to services. I'm sure there must have been occasions when Labour had the Tories/Coalition on the run for other specific issues where they had the moral highground and popular highground (I'll leave it to others to provide them, cos they just don't spring to my probably biased mind).

The images that do spring to mind are the mostly odd ones, standing shoulder to shoulder with Cameron & Clegg over Scotland, the Cast in stone vague statements-as-promises, the ham sandwich, the wooing Unions.. sad.gif
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