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post Jan 10 2016, 02:34 AM
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I've decided to do a commentary for all the big categories (Picture, Director, all the Acting categories and probably Song + Animated) over the next week before the Oscar nominations are revealed on Friday next week! I will do commentary for the categories above along with the 5 I think will get in, along with a few alternatives that could happen! I will also do predictions but with very little commentary/probably no alternatives for the other categories! Hope you enjoy this and will get you hyped for Oscar nominations next week heart.gif
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post Jan 10 2016, 02:02 PM
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BEST ACTRESS PREDICTION

This is either going to be the most entertaining category or the most predictable category. It will all depend on where Vikander and Mara end up, more on that later.

Brie Larson (Room), Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn) and Cate Blanchett (Carol) are all surely locks for nominations with all 3 actresses getting nominated at practically every single award precussor this year. I'm also pretty sure Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl) will end up in lead as well due to that is where she was placed at the BAFTA's and her continuing buzz for her supporting role in Ex_Machina could see her nominated in both categories! I'm going for a Larson win at the moment but wouldn't be surprised if any of them won to be honest!

That leaves us with the very big battle for spot #5:
Well big battle only if Rooney Mara is in supporting actress. If Mara (Carol) is in lead actress then that is basically the top 5 locked baring a massive surprise.
But if she is in supporting actress I can see a battle of 8 performances occuring! If the Oscar has a massive lovefest for Sicario, Emily Blunt could be pulled in for the ride. The veterans are all out in force this year with Maggie Smith (The Lady In The Van), Lily Tomlin (Grandma) and Charlotte Rampling (45 Years) all getting glowing reviews. However despite Smith being nominated for the BAFTA, I can't see that translating to Oscars, Tomlin's buzz has seemed to have faded and I actually had Rampling in 5th place last week but I think missing out at the BAFTA's could be a killer. So with none of them getting in that leaves 4 actresses in contention. If Amy Schumer wins the Golden Globe for Trainwreck tonight, which really could happen, I can see her maybe sneaking in but I doubt it unfortunately. So that leaves Jennifer Lawrence, Helen Mirren & Charlize Theron. Considering how much America love her, I'm going for Lawrence being in but I think her fate will be decided tonight; if she wins the Golden Globes she's in, if she loses she's out. And Helen Mirren is such a well respected and loved actress and gave a powerhouse performance in Woman In Gold, she can't be ruled out either. And of course if the Academy go crazy for Mad Max: Fury Road, how can Theron not be in, especially considering how many fans her performance has! This is going to be an incredibly tough decision if Mara is in supporting! And if Vikander also ends up in supporting, who's in?! I'd go Mirren ohmy.gif

PRACTICALLY LOCKS
1. Brie Larson- Room
2. Saoirse Ronan- Brooklyn
3. Cate Blanchett- Carol
4. Alicia Vikander- The Danish Girl (I'm pretty sure she'll end up here and not supporting)


LIKELY TO GET IN IF IN BEST ACTRESS
5. Rooney Mara- Carol


FIGHT FOR 5TH SPOT IF MARA IS IN SUPPORTING
6. Jennifer Lawrence- Joy
7. Helen Mirren- Women In Gold
8. Charlize Theron- Mad Max: Fury Road
9. Charlotte Rampling- 45 Years
10. Lily Tomlin- Grandma
11. Maggie Smith- The Lady In The Van
12. Amy Schumer- Trainwreck
13. Emily Blunt- Sicario



Hope you found these interesting and please comment your thoughts and predictions on what could happen smile.gif Will do more if people want and tell me what category you'd like to see also heart.gif
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Josh!
post Jan 10 2016, 02:13 PM
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This does seem like the most interesting category this year, I agree with you that Larson seems like the winner now but Blanchett is my favourite performance so far from the contenders. I do hope Mara gets put in supporting because I willbe gutted if Jennifer Lawrence doesn't make it in, my second favourite performance of the year and she made a pretty good film even more enthralling despite it being about a mop.

Don't see any comediennes with a shot at this in such a competitive year but for me, Melissa McCarthy did a better job at making me laugh and was in the better film so I hope it would be her over Amy Schumer.


This post has been edited by Josh Josh Binks: Jan 10 2016, 02:14 PM
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post Jan 10 2016, 07:03 PM
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BEST ACTOR PREDICTION

Considering the category isn't too strong this year, I'd be shocked at anything other than Di Caprio finally getting his long awaited win, anyway he will 100% nominated. It is who goes with him is the question?
Despite the film struggling on the whole, I can't see Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs) missing out considering he has gotten into most of the other Award groups. I also think Bryan Cranston (Trumbo) and Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl) will be in but wouldn't be shocked at all though if either missed out. There seems to be little buzz around Trumbo and considering The Danish Girl has also struggled, I can really see Redmayne being a shock omission and he really wouldn't be getting in at all if this was a stronger year.

And the fight for 5th spot is also competitive. And if I'm honest if 3 of them from that group get nominated (the other 2 replacing Cranston and Redmayne). Johnny Depp received fantastic reviews for Black Mass but the film has completely faded, Will Smith received great reviews for Concussion but the film has poor reviews and did badly at the Box Office. I'm actually shocked how low Tom Hanks is and considering he's struggled to get into most of the precussors, I guess he's not going to be nominated. Also expect Matt Damon (The Martian) to do better and he could still get in but I am unsure. That leaves Steve Carell who I think could be a surprise inclusion due to the amount of buzz and steam The Big Short is picking up and he could go along for the ride! I think Depp will get the 5th spot but don't be surprised if Carell knocks him out of that spot, or even Redmayne or Cranston!

Matt Damon up to 5th after Globes win

It also feels like I'm missing someone here but I can't think who?

PRACTICALLY LOCK
1. Leonardo Di Caprio- The Revenant


LIKELY
2. Michael Fassbender- Steve Jobs


SHOULD BE IN
3. Bryan Cranston- Trumbo
4. Eddie Redmayne- The Danish Girl


FIGHT FOR 5TH SPOT
5. Matt Damon- The Martian
6. Johnny Depp- Black Mass
7. Steve Carell- The Big Short
8. Will Smith- Concussion
9. Tom Hanks- Bridge Of Spies


Hope you found these interesting and please comment your thoughts and predictions on what could happen smile.gif Will do more if people want and tell me what category you'd like to see also heart.gif
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post Jan 12 2016, 10:42 PM
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Forgot this was Thursday not Friday so will get 1 done tonight and the rest tomorrow!!
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post Jan 12 2016, 10:48 PM
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BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS PREDICTION

Editing commentary in now smile.gif Will try and get done before sleep!
Just wrote it up but computer crashed so not happening now sad.gif

PRACTICALLY LOCK IF LEAD
1. Rooney Mara- Carol
2. Alicia Vikander- The Danish Girl


VERY LIKELY
3. Kate Winslet- Steve Jobs
4. Jennifer Jason Leigh- The Hateful Eight
5. Alicia Vikander- Ex_Machina


LIKELY TO GET IN IF VIKANDER IN LEAD (Which I'm Pretty Sure Of)
6. Rachel McAdams- Spotlight


FIGHT FOR 5TH SPOT IF MARA IS IN LEAD
7. Kristen Stewart- Clouds Of Sils Maria
8. Helen Mirron- Trumbo
9. Jane Fonda- Youth
10. Joan Allen- Room
11. Julie Walters- Brooklyn
12. Elizabeth Banks- Love & Mercy


FINAL PREDICTION
1. Rooney Mara- Carol- WINNER
2. Kate Winslet- Steve Jobs
3. Jennifer Jason Leigh- Hateful Eight
4. Alicia Vikander- Ex_Machina
5. Rachel McAdams- Spotlight


Hope you found these interesting and please comment your thoughts and predictions on what could happen smile.gif Will do more if people want and tell me what category you'd like to see also heart.gif
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Josh!
post Jan 13 2016, 08:55 AM
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Those would be my 5 picks too, I'd like to see Vikander win in something but I'd bet on Mara! Yay at Kate Winslet getting more love too because she's fab!
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Joe ho ho!
post Jan 13 2016, 09:22 AM
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Hmmmm I'm really not sure about Rachel Spotlight. She's not even in much and doesn't have any dramatic scenes.
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post Jan 13 2016, 09:37 AM
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I'd agree that Rachel seems a little less likely to me, but then I'm not really sure who the 5th spot would go to otherwise. I'd love it to be Jane (by far the best thing about Youth), but I'm pretty much in agreement with all the rest.
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Joe ho ho!
post Jan 13 2016, 10:04 AM
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Yes, I'd back Jane in Youth. I mean she's in VERY little of the film, but totally steals the entire thing.
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post Jan 13 2016, 07:02 PM
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BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR PREDICTION

Gosh this might be the hardest category of them all to predict! Pretty sure Mark Rylance (Bridge Of Spies) is in but not convinced he'll win either at this point. And the battle for the other spots is an utter bloodbath. Mark Ruffalo (Spotlight) seems to be getting the most love of the cast and think he'll be the one to get in but wouldn't even be surprised with him missing at this rate despite being my 2nd favourite to win. I really thought Michael Keaton (Spotlight) would win this a few months ago but due to presumably vote-splitting he's ended up later and would be shocked if he gets in and who knows if the Academy really really love Spotlight, don't rule out Stanley Tucci or Liev Schreiber for a big shock.

Now onto the other non Spotlight contenders, Idris Elba could score Netflix's 1st academy award for his supporting turn in Beasts Of No Nation which regained steam in the last month or so, Sylvester Stallone surely can't be ignored now after his Golden Globe win and many have said he is fantastic in this and my final prediction is going for Tom Hardy (The Revenant) after the films massive Golden Globes night. Though Christian Bale (The Big Short) could easily get in after I had him in 5th about 15 minutes ago but kept swapping him and Hardy! Jacob Tremblay could also get in if Room has a good day and Benicio Del Toro (Sicario) has also picked up a lot of hype and can see him getting in as well.

And if they all fail to get in (which could happen), there are even more contenders! I did think Jason Mitchell (Straight Outta Compton) and Emory Cohen (Brooklyn) could both get in but neither have really turned up at all so doubt it but could still happen! Oscar Issac could get a surprise nom for Ex_Machina but again I'd be surprised. Michael Shannon (99 Homes) and Paul Dano (Love And Mercy) were both a lot higher about 3 weeks ago for me but both have seemed to lost a lost of hype quickly so can see both missing out, but don't be surprised if either get in though!

LIKELY
1. Mark Rylance- Bridge Of Spies


BATTLE FOR 2ND/3RD/4TH/5TH SPOT
2. Mark Ruffalo- Spotlight
3. Idris Elba- Beasts Of No Nation
4. Sylvester Stallone- Creed
5. Tom Hardy- The Revenant
6. Christan Bale- The Big Short
7. Jacob Tremblay- Room
8. Benicio Del Toro- Sicario
9. Michael Keaton- Spotlight


FIGHT FOR ANY OF THOSE SPOTS FOR A SHOCK
10. Michael Shannon- 99 Homes
11. Paul Dano- Love And Mercy
12. Oscar Issac- Ex_Machina
13. Jason Mitchell- Straight Outta Compton
14. Emory Cohen- Brooklyn
15. Any of the other Spotlight guys (In particular Stanley Tucci/Liev Schrieber)


Hope you found these interesting and please comment your thoughts and predictions on what could happen smile.gif Will do more if people want and tell me what category you'd like to see also heart.gif
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post Jan 13 2016, 08:09 PM
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I think it's gonna be between Rylance and Stallone for the win now, I'd be shocked if it was anyone else. Hopefully Mark Ruffalo does get another nomination because he's consistently good in everything he's in and Tom Hardy too but a bit shocked at the lack of hype for his role so far. I think Paul Dano might fill that fifth spot still.

Jacob Tremblay would be my #1 pick and a bit shocked he's not got any big nominations so far so therefore I don't see it happening tomorrow but that would be a big shame sad.gif


This post has been edited by Josh Josh Binks: Jan 13 2016, 08:09 PM
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post Jan 13 2016, 09:18 PM
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Tbh I think Sly will probably have the edge because Rylance seems to be generally against the whole awards MACHINE so probably won't push as hard (even if he gives a much better performance). Who knows though, maybe that was all just bluster until the chance actually comes up.

I actually think Supporting Actor is one of the easier categories to predict in general this year, Rylance, Stallone, Hardy, Elba, Ruffalo and Del Toro are the only ones I'd have in contention, so it's just a case of which one misses out.
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post Jan 13 2016, 09:25 PM
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BEST PICTURE PREDICTION
This is the last category I'll probably be doing commentary for and will just post my predictions for the rest smile.gif I did start doing director commentary but realised I had practically no clue/nothing to write about.

This must be the most exciting Best Picture race in years, with no clear frontrunner and also no clear route on who's getting in. Despite hype starting to fade, I can't see Spotlight missing and also still have it down as my winner for the moment. Also think after the surge of buzz in the last month, The Big Short is in and would be shocked if The Revenant missed after the massive Golden Globes evening it had the other day.

Next up are the 3 I think will get in but they could miss out, doubt it though! This should also be the 1st year we've had a couple of gigantic blockbusters for a few years now. The Martian should be in after the massive fanbase/reviews it has and a great Golden Globes showing and the fanbase and people hyping Mad Max: Fury Road are so big I can see the movie getting in, especially considering it has done a lot better than expected over the Awards season. Despite already starting to disappear around early November, Bridge Of Spies recovered fantastically and has showed up at many different Awards nominations this season. Can't see the 3 of them missing.

So that leaves the other really loved critically movies (Brooklyn/Carol/Room) and the loved blockbusters (Compton, Inside Out, Star Wars) and the films with strong lovers (Ex_Machina, Sicario). And I think it will be all of the first category being the movies that get in if it is 9 movies. Carol has done well over Award season but has struggled at times and won nothing at the Globes, I think it'll get in but wouldn't be surprised if it was snubbed. Of course I adore Brooklyn and even though I may have put it 1 or 2 places higher than I expect due to my massive love overshadowing my brain, I can still see it getting in as it is kind of recovering. If there's going to be a shock miss, I'm going for Room to be a big shocker considering I thought it could win just over a month ago. It seems to be fading a little apart from Brie Larson's performance and I don't know really, just a gut feeling I have (bit like with my Lego Movie missing best animated movie last year prediction). And if it is 10 nominations, I'm going for massive blockbuster Straight Outta Compton getting in due to the amount of people who love it.

However if any of these stumble, there are many films I can see capitalising on this! Inside Out seems to be fading for a Best Picture nominee but I still wouldn't rule it out due to the incredible amount of love for the Pixar feature, Ex_Machina is sneaking further and further up each week but is it too late? and Sicario is also starting to shine and has vocal lovers, surprise nomination? Also after doing surprisingly great with double wins at the Steve Jobs, can it still get in despite horrific box office? Also Star Wars 7 could get in but can see the movie more in just the visual effects categories due to the tough line up this year and the late screenings. The Hateful Eight seems to be struggling a bit at the Awards for Tarantino but who knows, he has done great at the Oscars lately so can the movie get in? Also could Trumbo be in for a shock overperformance due to the subject matter, can The Danish Girl and Joy (which are both excellent) somehow recover after their struggle this season (probably not) and could Netflix's Beasts Of No Nation be the first streaming movie only to get nominated for Best Picture. Well anyway expect a lot of records broken this year from most of the films. Will be interesting to see what happens! Can Spotlight go as low as 2 nominations? Will a film get surprisingly completely blanked? Who's going to be the shock overperformer? Are we going to see 2 actresses from the same movie nominated in the same category? How well can the blockbusters do? One thing for sure, this Oscars is going to be so interesting heart.gif

My full predictions will be coming up in the next half an hour smile.gif

LOCK
1. Spotlight
2. The Big Short
3. The Revenant


LIKELY
4. The Martian
5. Mad Max: Fury Road
6. Bridge Of Spies


PROBABLY GETTING THE LAST SPOTS
7. Carol
8. Brooklyn
9. Room
10. Straight Outta Compton


JUST OUTSIDE, COULD MAKE IT
11. Ex_Machina
12. Inside Out
13. Sicario
14. Steve Jobs


UNLIKELY BUT COULD JUST!
15. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
16. The Hateful Eight
17. Trumbo
18. The Danish Girl
19. Joy
20. Beasts Of No Nation


Hope you found these interesting and please comment your thoughts and predictions on what could happen smile.gif Will do more if people want and tell me what category you'd like to see also heart.gif
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post Jan 13 2016, 09:58 PM
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BEST PICTURE
1. Spotlight
2. The Big Short
3. The Revenant
4. The Martian
5. Mad Max: Fury Road
6. Bridge Of Spies
7. Carol
8. Brooklyn
9. Room
10. Straight Outta Compton


BEST DIRECTOR
1. Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu- The Revenant
2. George Miller- Mad Max: Fury Road
3. Tom McCarthy- Spotlight
4. Ridley Scott- The Martian
5. Steven Spielberg- Bridge Of Spies


BEST ACTOR
1. Leonardo Di Caprio- The Revenant
2. Michael Fassbender- Steve Jobs
3. Bryan Cranston- Trumbo
4. Eddie Redmayne- The Danish Girl
5. Matt Damon- The Martian


BEST ACTRESS
1. Brie Larson- Room
2. Saoirse Ronan- Brooklyn
3. Cate Blanchett- Carol
4. Alicia Vikander- The Danish Girl
5. Jennifer Lawrence- Joy


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Rooney Mara- Carol
2. Kate Winslet- Steve Jobs
3. Jennifer Jason Leigh- The Hateful Eight
4. Alicia Vikander- Ex_Machina
5. Rachel McAdams- Spotlight


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Mark Rylance- Bridge Of Spies
2. Mark Ruffalo- Spotlight
3. Idris Elba- Beasts Of No Nation
4. Sylvester Stallone- Creed
5. Tom Hardy- The Revenant


ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. Spotlight
2. Inside Out
3. Ex_Machina
4. Sicario
5. Bridge Of Spies

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. Room
2. The Big Short
3. Brooklyn
4. Carol
5. Steve Jobs

ANIMATED MOVIE
1. Inside Out
2. Anomalisa
3. The Good Dinsoaur
4. Shaun The Sheep: The Movie
5. Minions

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
1. Amy
2. The Look Of Silence
3. Winter On Fire
4. Listen To Me Marlon
5. He Named Me Malala

FOREIGN LANGUAGE
1. Son Of Saul
2. A War
3. Mustang
4. Labyrinth Of Lies
5. The Brand New Testament

PRODUCTION DESIGN
1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
2. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. The Martian
4. The Danish Girl
5. Carol

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1. The Revenant
2. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. Sicario
4. The Martian
5. Bridge Of Spies

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
1. The Danish Girl
2. Brooklyn
3. Carol
4. The Hateful Eight
5. Cinderella

BEST EDITING
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Spotlight
3. The Martian
4. The Revenant
5. The Big Short

MAKE UP & HAIRSTYLING
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. The Revenant
3. Black Mass

BEST SOUND MIXING
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3. The Revenant
4. Sicario
5. Bridge Of Spies

BEST SOUND EDITING
1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3. The Revenant
4. The Martian
5. Sicario

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
2. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. Jurassic World
4. The Martian
5. Ex_Machina

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
1. The Hateful Eight
2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3. Spotlight
4. Bridge Of Spies
5. Mad Max: Fury Road

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
1. See You Again- Furious 7
2. Till It Happens To You- The Hunting Ground
3. Love Me Like You- Fifty Shades Of Grey
4. Simple Song #3- Youth
5. Writing's On The Wall- Spectre

Nom count in a few minutes smile.gif
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post Jan 13 2016, 10:11 PM
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NOMINATION COUNT
Mad Max: Fury Road 10
The Revenant 9
The Martian 8
Bridge Of Spies 7
Spotlight 7
Carol 6

Star Wars: The Force Awakens 5
Brooklyn 4
Sicario 4
The Danish Girl 4
Ex_Machina 3
Room 3
Steve Jobs 3
The Big Short 3
The Hateful Eight 3
Inside Out 2
A War 1
Amy 1
Anomalisa 1
Beasts Of No Nation 1
Black Mass 1
Cinderella 1
Creed 1
Fifty Shades Of Grey 1
Furious 7 1
He Named Me Malala 1
Joy 1
Jurassic World 1
Labyrinth Of Lies 1
Listen To Me Marlon 1
Minions 1
Mustang 1
Shaun The Sheep: The Movie 1
Son Of Saul 1
Spectre 1
Straight Outta Compton 1
The Brand New Testament 1
The Good Dinosaur 1
The Hunting Ground 1
The Look Of Silence 1
Trumbo 1
Winter On Fire 1
Youth 1

My nomination count, just realised I'm predict Compton to get a Best Picture nod and no other nominations ohmy.gif
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