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> Prediction time - EU Referendum
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vidsanta
post Jun 15 2016, 05:29 AM
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This is not intended as a thread to discuss the pros & cons, but simply to post what you think the result will be.

1. The percentages for Leave/Remain

2. The turnout
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vidsanta
post Jun 15 2016, 05:30 AM
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My prediction :

Leave 51% Remain 49% (though with significant regional variations)

Turnout 70%
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mdh
post Jun 15 2016, 06:43 AM
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Leave - 47%
Remain - 53%

Turnout - 69%
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vidsanta
post Jun 15 2016, 08:22 AM
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QUOTE(vidcapper @ Jun 15 2016, 06:29 AM) *
This is not intended as a thread to discuss the pros & cons, but simply to post what you think the result will be.

1. The percentages for Leave/Remain

2. The turnout


BTW, a year ago I expected that the result would be something like 60/40 in favour of Remain...
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gavindeejay
post Jun 15 2016, 08:36 AM
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Remain - 55%

Leave - 45%

Turnout - 77%
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Joe ho ho!
post Jun 15 2016, 08:44 AM
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Remain - 51%

Leave - 49%

Turnout - 64%
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Sceryl_Streep
post Jun 15 2016, 08:50 AM
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I think it's going to be damn near 50/50 at this point, which is quite terrifying really. For the sake of simplicity I will go with 51% Remain, 49% Leave and turnout around 65%.
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vidsanta
post Jun 15 2016, 09:35 AM
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QUOTE(Qween @ Jun 15 2016, 09:50 AM) *
I think it's going to be damn near 50/50 at this point, which is quite terrifying really. For the sake of simplicity I will go with 51% Remain, 49% Leave and turnout around 65%.


One thing's for sure, if the result is very close either way, the issue is just going to rumble on (not to mention the inevitable accusations of vote-rigging). no.gif
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Winter Wombatlan...
post Jun 15 2016, 09:54 AM
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Definitely not as confident as before, but I'll say Remain will just about win with 53-47, with around a 65% turnout. Wouldn't be surprised if England voted Leave and it's Scotland/Ireland that just keep us in.

It actually makes me sick to the stomach that Leave is a serious possibility now sad.gif
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Qassändra
post Jun 15 2016, 11:03 AM
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REMAIN 54
LEAVE 46
TURNOUT 61
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vidsanta
post Jun 15 2016, 11:10 AM
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QUOTE(Chez Wombat @ Jun 15 2016, 10:54 AM) *
Definitely not as confident as before, but I'll say Remain will just about win with 53-47, with around a 65% turnout. Wouldn't be surprised if England voted Leave and it's Scotland/Ireland that just keep us in.

It actually makes me sick to the stomach that Leave is a serious possibility now sad.gif


Whereas I'd be breaking out the champagne... teresa.gif


This post has been edited by vidcapper: Jun 15 2016, 11:10 AM
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T83:Y96
post Jun 15 2016, 11:11 AM
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My most pessimistic expection would be 54% Leave, 46% Remain, but more realistically I'd say something among the lines of 52% Remain, 48% Leave on a 73% turnout.
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vidsanta
post Jun 15 2016, 11:19 AM
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QUOTE(Taylor Jago @ Jun 15 2016, 12:11 PM) *
My most pessimistic expection would be 54% Leave, 46% Remain, but more realistically I'd say something among the lines of 52% Remain, 48% Leave on a 73% turnout.


I never thought of giving a range! ohmy.gif

In that case I would say 48-52% either way (I hope there aren't splinters in the fence I am sitting on there... laugh.gif )
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Brett-Butler
post Jun 15 2016, 11:33 AM
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Remain - 55
Leave - 45
Turnout - 75%

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Popchartfreak
post Jun 15 2016, 01:12 PM
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QUOTE(vidcapper @ Jun 15 2016, 12:10 PM) *
Whereas I'd be breaking out the champagne... teresa.gif


surely that would be an EU import tongue.gif

Leave 52%
Remain 48%

Even amongst recent immigrants there is strong racism against the former communist bloc. Reasoned arguments have no effect on emotional bias.

GHUA.
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Suedehead2
post Jun 15 2016, 01:20 PM
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Remain 52%
Leave 48%

Turnout 56%
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LexC
post Jun 15 2016, 01:28 PM
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Going to go with 53-47 to Remain with about a 65% turnout (which is more or less what it was at the last election I think?) which to my mind is waaaaay too close for comfort.
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Slade
post Jun 15 2016, 01:30 PM
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Remain - 53%
Leave - 47%
Turnout - 66%
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Yuki On Ice~
post Jun 15 2016, 01:33 PM
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Interesting how the turnout is varying so much. I'd call it at about mid-60s myself given you'd be hard pressed to go much higher than that but it'll most likely be a referendum that gets a rather high turnout given its importance.

I'd probably call the same as most of you, I have 50-50 stuck in my mind though, which would be awkward for all as it means the issue wouldn't even have the decency to get put to rest (not that I'd want it to get put to rest if it were Leave winning but I'd rather just be cutting ties with the people who took my EU citizenship from me rather than arguing more with them at that point).
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Sceryl_Streep
post Jun 15 2016, 03:05 PM
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I was fairly confident in a 55-45 Remain result up until the last week or so. I HOPE I'm wrong, I really do, but as awful and muddled as this has all been it just seems like Leave has been able to cut through the BS a bit more effectively to pull it dangerously close.
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