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> Where will "Back To You" chart in its first week?
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Where will "Back To You" chart in its first week?
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(Zach)
post Aug 18 2016, 08:56 PM
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What's your prediction and why?
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JosephCarey
post Aug 18 2016, 09:02 PM
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I am being pessimistic and saying it won't chart. It's unlikely she'll get a great deal of streams and it's even more unlikely that she'll get instant radio support beyond the premieres. Also don't think it will hold up well beyond the initial fanbase purchases. Would LOVE to be proved wrong though!!
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Hurricane
post Aug 18 2016, 09:29 PM
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Honestly, I just don't know.

I think with the first two days of "sales", it will be pretty obvious where it will fall eventually at the end of the week. I know the whole point is to predict its place before that, but I just need to know so many important factors that could change everything. Will the song be promoted on streaming services such as Spotify? Will the label buy multiple YouTube ads, getting the videos a lot of plays? Will they have a deal with radio stations? Will The Saturdays fans even buy the song? (I mean, by the end of their careers, the group was a flop, but usually they had a big enough fanbase to get a song in the top 100, even if it's just at #93)

At this point, I'm predicting something like these 3 choices : Will not chart | #150-#200 | #100-#150, but I'm not voting just yet.
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Joe ho ho!
post Aug 18 2016, 09:49 PM
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I think 50 - 75. The. Disappear altogether until she (hopefully) starts to gain some support, and it'll climb from there.
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MARIAH.
post Aug 19 2016, 02:56 AM
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*Pedantry alert* but if someone was to consider that the single could chart at #10, #20, #30, #40, #50, #75, #100 or #150, there's two options for each of these numbers... haha.

~

I don't really know. I feel like streaming is bound to do her down, whereas she might pick up some alright sales in the first couple of days at least. Maybe scrape somewhere in the bottom quarter of the Top 200? I could potentially see her making the Top 100 sales chart.
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goldfish
post Aug 19 2016, 11:58 AM
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this week around #40 but if some radio station playlist it it might grow in a few weeks
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(Zach)
post Aug 19 2016, 02:54 PM
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She'll have to manage about 3500 in sales/streams this week to go Top 200, 5500 to go Top 100, 7500 to go Top 75, and 12000 to go Top 50.

With where she's been on Kworb and her current Spotify plays, I think she'll manage about 1500 today. We know she'll sink like a rock after today but if she can manage just an average of 300 daily for the rest of the week she will chart. 700 a day will put her in the Top 100.

Question: Do YouTube plays count towards streams? I feel like this differs from country to country and I have a hard time keeping it all straight.
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Juliano
post Aug 19 2016, 03:02 PM
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50-75 due to the fact she seems to be doing OK on iTunes although I am certain she will fall from now on, maybe in top 30/40 sales, 20 is definately possible, but I'm not confident about the streaming. And Zach I believe YouTube streams count in the US but I don't think in the UK just yet.

This post has been edited by Juliano: Aug 19 2016, 03:03 PM
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JSG
post Aug 19 2016, 05:55 PM
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I'd say #50-#75 but like Hurricane says I'd love to be proved wrong also. Hopefully it doesn't fall to far this week and picks up in streaming and sticks around once her radio tour starts!
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___∆___
post Aug 20 2016, 05:28 AM
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I'm pretty sure this will miss the Top 100 this week or if it does make it then it will be very low (Something like #94), It's not in the Top 200 yet on Spotify. Bon Jovi missed the official Top 100 this week and they were the same as Mollie - Went Top 20 on iTunes but suffered with streaming and missed out charting as a result.
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(Zach)
post Aug 20 2016, 03:01 PM
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I'm leaning towards #75-#100. Entering the Top 200 on Spotify on her first day and not plummeting after 30 seconds on iTunes makes me think this is attainable.
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Joe ho ho!
post Aug 20 2016, 03:02 PM
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QUOTE((Zach) @ Aug 20 2016, 04:01 PM) *
I'm leaning towards #75-#100. Entering the Top 200 on Spotify on her first day and not plummeting after 30 seconds on iTunes makes me think this is attainable.


Pretty much every single song featured on the 'new music Friday' playlist enters the Spotify top 200 the next day every week.
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(Zach)
post Aug 21 2016, 01:21 AM
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QUOTE((Zach) @ Aug 19 2016, 02:54 PM) *
With where she's been on Kworb and her current Spotify plays, I think she'll manage about 1500 today.

I think she might've managed 1200 or so today. 2700 for the first two days would be great. I'd say she is guaranteed to chart and Top 100 is definitely within reach.


This post has been edited by (Zach): Aug 21 2016, 01:22 AM
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(Zach)
post Aug 23 2016, 01:38 AM
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Does anyone know how sales/streams are spread out throughout the week? Like are weekends typically higher than weekdays, and is Friday highest for sales and streaming? I know Sunday used to be the biggest day due to the new releases, but now with streaming being so prominent I'm wondering if it's more consistent throughout the week?

Assuming it is somewhat consistent, this may have managed about 5,000 in its first three days based on its #53 midweek position. My logic is that the average #53 song manages about 11,500 for the week, so 3/7 (3 out of 7 days) x 11,500 would equal 4,928. I realize this is a really basic analysis but if that's even remotely close, then it seems as though Top 100 is almost guaranteed at this point. She would just have to average about 150 a day for Mon-Thurs in order to get the 5,500 or so needed to secure a Top 100 position. I could be missing something here but it makes sense in my mind tongue.gif
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MARIAH.
post Aug 23 2016, 04:32 AM
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^ It sold roughly 3,500 across Friday/Saturday/Sunday to achieve its Monday midweek position of #53!

I think recently it typically takes around 6,000 to make it into the Top 100. I think another set of midweeks is needed to be able to predict more clearly where she's likely to end up on Friday.
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JSG
post Aug 23 2016, 05:24 AM
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I think she'll just miss the top 100 this week now but that's easily turned around with more promo.
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Joe ho ho!
post Aug 23 2016, 10:28 AM
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^ Sadly, I don't think it's "easily" turned around. It's a very steep, uphill battle these days, so I hope they have some decent plans in the work. Spotify's Hot Hits Uk dd its weekly update yesterday and it's not on there, which is annoying.
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(Zach)
post Aug 23 2016, 12:20 PM
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QUOTE(Ja˙ @ Aug 23 2016, 04:32 AM) *
^ It sold roughly 3,500 across Friday/Saturday/Sunday to achieve its Monday midweek position of #53!

Thanks Jay! Didn't know if we had that info or not. That's close to what I initially guessed but I got my hopes up for a second there. Should be a close finish for Top 100 then.
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