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Josh.
post Sep 3 2016, 10:58 AM
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Thought it might be quite fun to start hyping next year's Oscars and who might get nominated now that we're out of Summer and heading into Oscar's season.

So far I think the trailers for Manchester by the Sea, The Founder, La La Land, The Light Between Oceans and Lion look great so I'd like to see them get nominations.

However, TLBO has already been released in the US and isn't getting great reviews so now I'm a bit worried about its chances. I'd like to see all three of Vikander, Fassbenders and Weisz get nominations at least but it seems its chances are slipping sad.gif
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Josh.
post Sep 3 2016, 11:00 AM
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I thought I'd do some (very, very) early predictions on the nominees and winners which might be fun to look back on.

BEST PICTURE
Arrival
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Fences
La La Land
Loving
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Silence
The Jungle Book
The Birth of a Nation

BEST LEAD ACTOR
Joel Edgerton - Loving
Michael Keaton - The Founder
Casey Affleck - Manchester by the Sea
Nate Parker - The Birth of a Nation
Ryan Gosling - La La Land

BEST LEAD ACTRESS
Alicia Vikander - The Light Between Oceans
Emma Stone - La La Land
Jessica Chastain - Miss Sloane
Ruth Negga - Loving
Viola Davis - Fences

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Armie Hammer - The Birth of a Nation
John Goodman - 10 Cloverfield Lane
Liam Neeson - Silence
Lucas Hedges - Manchester by the Sea
Steve Martin - Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Aja Naomi King – The Birth of a Nation
Elle Fanning - 20th Century Women
Kristen Stewart - Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Michelle Williams - Manchester by the Sea
Octavia Spencer - Hidden Figures

BEST DIRECTOR
Ang Lee - Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Nate Parker - The Birth of a Nation
Jeff Nichols - Loving
Damien Chazelle - La La Land
Kenneth Lonergan - Manchester by the Sea
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Regina
post Sep 3 2016, 11:18 AM
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This HAS to be Amy Adams' year, it better be anyway. She is getting rave reviews for Arrival and Nocturnal Animals and I think both movies will be gettings tons of
press and hype so she'll be benefiting from that. Not seen any clips of NA yet but she really delivers in what I've seen of Arrival.
Tom Ford could get a nom for Best Director for Nocturnal Animals too.

I can see Arrival being the Interstellar/Gravity/The Martian of the year tbh.

Thinking DaddyCasey will get a nom and maybe a win, but then, I am biased like I am with Amy. Maybe at a push Jeremy Renner for Arrival.
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blacksquare
post Sep 3 2016, 01:13 PM
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I am leaning more towards Viola Davis who won a Tony for the same role in Fences. She was robbed last time as well.

Amy Adams having two strong lead roles could be split votes and leave her without a nomination, especially if the competition is strong.
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UltraBasicWitch
post Sep 3 2016, 02:23 PM
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Great to see you start this Josh! Jahq & I will be bringing up some Oscar topics over the next couple of weeks so stayed tuned for those!

I'll do some predictions later but think it'll be between Billy Lynn & Fences with Silence making a play if it makes this year! (La La Land & Arrival I can also see doing really well!)

Also hope Birth Of A Nation completely fails to get anything, though I'm really starting to think the backlash is deservedly going to stop it getting anywhere near Oscar nominations hopefully.
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blacksquare
post Sep 3 2016, 02:29 PM
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QUOTE(Ultraviolence1989 @ Sep 3 2016, 03:23 PM) *
Great to see you start this Josh! Jahq & I will be bringing up some Oscar topics over the next couple of weeks so stayed tuned for those!

I'll do some predictions later but think it'll be between Billy Lynn & Fences with Silence making a play if it makes this year! (La La Land & Arrival I can also see doing really well!)

Also hope Birth Of A Nation completely fails to get anything, though I'm really starting to think the backlash is deservedly going to stop it getting anywhere near Oscar nominations hopefully.


I still think a Best Picture nomination but not direction or acting for Nate Parker. I think Roman Polanski and Woody Allen were 'lucky' that they weren't in the social media era.
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UltraBasicWitch
post Sep 3 2016, 05:34 PM
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Ok some very early predictions from me also! I'm sticking with my Birth Of A Nation full snub & I think Passengers will be delayed

I think Fences may be the first movie to win the big 5 in years.

EDIT: Forgot about Hell Or High Water, edited that in to a couple of the categories!

BEST PICTURE
Confident on at the moment unless they get delayed/completely flop
1. Fences
2. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
3. Silence

Potential winner if above stumble
4. La La Land

Early reviews say yes!
5. Arrival
6. Moonlight
7. Loving
8. Manchester by the Sea
9. Nocturnal Animals
10. Hell Or High Water

ALTS: Hidden Figures, Lion, 20th Century Women



BEST LEAD ACTOR
1. Denzel Washington- Fences
2. Casey Affleck - Manchester by the Sea
3. Ryan Gosling - La La Land
4. Joel Edgerton - Loving
5. Joe Alywn- Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk

ALTS: Andrew Garfield (Silence), Jake Gylleenhaal (Nocturnal Animals), Tom Hanks (Sully), Miles Teller (Bleed For This), Trevante Rhodes (Moonlight)

BEST LEAD ACTRESS
1. Viola Davis - Fences
2. Emma Stone - La La Land
3. Amy Adams- Arrival
4. Ruth Negga- Loving
5. Annette Benning- 20th Century Women

ALTS: Natalie Portman (Jackie), Amy Adams (Nocturnal Animals), Jessica Chastain (Miss Sloane), Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins), Emily Blunt (The Girl On The Train), Rebecca Hall (Christine)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Steve Martin - Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
2. Liam Neeson - Silence
3. Mahershala Ali- Moonlight
4. Michael Shannon- Nocturnal Animals
5. Jeff Bridges- Hell Or High Water

ALTS: Warren Beatty (Rules Don't Apply), John Legend (La La Land), Aaron Eckhart (Sully), Armie Hammer (The Birth of a Nation), Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea), Kyle Chandler (Manchester By The Sea)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Kristen Stewart - Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
2. Naomie Harris- Moonlight
3. Michelle Williams - Manchester by the Sea
4. Elle Fanning - 20th Century Women
5. Dakota Fanning- American Pastoral

ALTS: Greta Gerwig (20th Century Women), Aja Naomi King (The Birth of a Nation), Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures), Rachel Weisz (The Light Between Oceans), Laura Linney (Nocturnal Animals)

BEST DIRECTOR
1. Denzel Washington- Fences
2. Ang Lee - Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
3. Damien Chazelle - La La Land
4. Martin Scorsese- Silence
5. Denis Villenvenue- Arrival

ALTS: Barry Jenkins (Moonlight), Jeff Nichols (Loving), Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea), Tom Ford (Nocturnal Animals)
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Regina
post Sep 3 2016, 05:42 PM
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Arrival having 100% on Rotten Tomatoes tho *.* omg, Slaymy Adams is coming bitches.
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UltraBasicWitch
post Sep 13 2016, 04:03 PM
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Jackie has been picked up by Fox Searchlight and will now be released this year! It's meant to be fantastic and I can see this being a big contender for Natalie Portman!
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Josh.
post Sep 13 2016, 06:25 PM
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Oo, very excited to see Jackie because I've seen it get great reviews, glad it's coming out sooner rather than later. I think Natalie will be a lock on for a nomination but I think they'd be more likely to give the award to Viola Davis or Amy Adams, perhaps Jessica Chastain as they're a bit more overdue.
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Regina
post Sep 13 2016, 07:19 PM
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Viola only has two nominations, give it to Amy tbh smoke.gif she's been waiting longer.
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UltraBasicWitch
post Oct 1 2016, 12:09 PM
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*Updated Predicts

BEST PICTURE
arrow right.gif 1. Fences
arrow up.gif 2. La La Land
arrow down.gif 3. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
arrow down.gif 4. Silence
ne.gif 5. Jackie
arrow down.gif 6. Arrival
arrow down.gif 7. Moonlight
arrow down.gif 8. Loving
arrow down.gif 9. Manchester by the Sea
arrow down.gif 10. Nocturnal Animals

ALTS (In Order): Lion, Sully, A Monster Calls, Hidden Figures, 20th Century Women, The Jungle Book, Hell Or High Water, Passengers, The Girl On The Train, Hacksaw Ridge


BEST LEAD ACTOR
arrow right.gif 1. Denzel Washington- Fences
arrow right.gif 2. Casey Affleck - Manchester by the Sea
arrow right.gif 3. Ryan Gosling - La La Land
arrow right.gif 4. Joel Edgerton - Loving
arrow right.gif 5. Joe Alywn- Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk

ALTS: Tom Hanks (Sully), Miles Teller (Bleed For This), Jake Gylleenhaal (Nocturnal Animals), Andrew Garfield (Silence), Trevante Rhodes (Moonlight)


BEST LEAD ACTRESS
arrow up.gif 1. Emma Stone - La La Land
arrow down.gif 2. Viola Davis - Fences
ne.gif 3. Natalie Portman- Jackie
arrow right.gif 4. Ruth Negga- Loving
arrow down.gif 5. Amy Adams- Arrival

ALTS: Annette Bening (20th Century Women) , Amy Adams (Nocturnal Animals), Jessica Chastain (Miss Sloane), Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins), Emily Blunt (The Girl On The Train), Rebecca Hall (Christine)


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
arrow right.gif 1. Steve Martin - Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
arrow right.gif 2. Liam Neeson - Silence
arrow up.gif 3. Michael Shannon- Nocturnal Animals
arrow down.gif 4. Mahershala Ali- Moonlight
ne.gif 5. Aaron Eckhart- Bleed For This

ALTS: Warren Beatty (Rules Don't Apply), Jeff Bridges (Hell Or High Water), John Legend (La La Land), Aaron Eckhart (Sully), John Goodman (10 Cloverfield Lane), Peter Sarsgaard (Jackie), Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea), Alden Ehrenreich (Hail, Caesar), Kyle Chandler (Manchester By The Sea)


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
arrow right.gif 1. Kristen Stewart - Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
arrow right.gif 2. Naomie Harris- Moonlight
arrow right.gif 3. Michelle Williams - Manchester by the Sea
ne.gif 4. Margo Martindale- The Hollars
ne.gif 5. Laura Linney- Nocturnal Animals

ALTS: Nicole Kidman (Lion), Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures), Elle Fanning (20th Century Women), Greta Gerwig (20th Century Women), Haley Bennett (The Girl On The Train), Rachel Weisz (The Light Between Oceans)


BEST DIRECTOR
arrow right.gif 1. Denzel Washington- Fences
arrow up.gif 2. Damien Chazelle - La La Land
arrow down.gif 3. Ang Lee - Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
arrow right.gif 4. Martin Scorsese- Silence
arrow right.gif 5. Denis Villenvenue- Arrival

ALTS: Barry Jenkins (Moonlight), Pablo Larrain (Jackie), Jeff Nichols (Loving), Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea), Tom Ford (Nocturnal Animals)
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UltraBasicWitch
post Oct 1 2016, 12:11 PM
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Also I think The Birth Of A Nation is completely dead now in all categories. Especially now Fox Searchlight have picked up Jackie and Nate Parker getting worse and worse as this promotional campaign goes on
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UltraBasicWitch
post Oct 4 2016, 11:00 PM
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Live By Night (the new Ben Affleck directed/starring movie) is back in the race as an Oscar qualifying run at Christmas has just been confirmed!
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blacksquare
post Oct 6 2016, 09:02 AM
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It really could be another for Portman

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UltraBasicWitch
post Oct 16 2016, 06:33 PM
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And it looks like bye bye Billy Lynn also from the contenders, they're dropping like flies this year drama.gif

After seeing Manchester By The Sea, I really wouldn't be surprised to see both Affleck and Williams pick up wins!
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Josh.
post Oct 16 2016, 07:51 PM
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Billy Lynn's hype does seem to have vanished overnight somehow. I think it might still gets noms for Best Picture and perhaps director for Ang Lee but not so sure on Steve Martin/Kristen Stewart anymore.
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UltraBasicWitch
post Oct 16 2016, 08:01 PM
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Reviews are really poor after its film festival premiere. Stewart and techs are its only chance I think now unless it majorly recovers!
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Josh.
post Oct 16 2016, 08:26 PM
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Agree with you about Manchester by the Sea on the acting front so thought I might update my predictions (winners in bold again):

BEST PICTURE
“La La Land”
“Fences”
“20th Century Women”
“Manchester by the Sea”
“Lion”
“Jackie”
“Silence”
“Loving”
“Moonlight”
“Arrival”

BEST ACTOR
Denzel Washington – “Fences”
Tom Hanks – “Sully“
Ryan Gosling – “La La Land“
Casey Affleck – “Manchester by the Sea“
Joel Edgerton – “Loving“

BEST ACTRESS
Jessica Chastain – “Miss Sloane”
Viola Davis – “Fences”
Ruth Negga – “Loving“
Natalie Portman – “Jackie“
Emma Stone – “La La Land“

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali – “Moonlight“
Michael Shannon – “Nocturnal Animals“
Liam Neeson – “Silence”
Peter Sarsgaard – “Jackie“
Jeff Bridges – “Hell or High Water“

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Kristen Stewart – “Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk”
Naomie Harris – “Moonlight“
Nicole Kidman – “Lion“
Michelle Williams – “Manchester by the Sea“
Octavia Spencer – “Hidden Figures”

BEST DIRECTOR
Damien Chazelle – “La La Land“
Martin Scorsese – “Silence”
Pablo Larraín – “Jackie“
Kenneth Lonergan – “Manchester by the Sea“
Denis Villenueve – “Arrival“
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Regina
post Oct 24 2016, 03:42 PM
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Viola has been submitted for Supporting Actress for the SAGs so I'm guessing that means she'll be a supporting for the other awards too.
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