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twentyonemdh
post Sep 4 2016, 06:13 PM
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I thought I'd do this for analytical purposes - basically the idea is a projection of what a songs sales will look like based on current figures for now to the end of the week, so we can get an estimate of where the song is projected to come in the chart biggrin.gif

Obviously there is a certain degree of inaccuracy to this as the sales of tracks are ever changing, and I'll be trying to make my formulas as accurate as possible as the weeks go on, but I'll do the best I can for now with the figures I have biggrin.gif

Here are the potential new entries this week and where they're currently predicted to come in the charts based on projected sales~

28 | Ariana Grande ft Nicki Minaj - Side To Side ~
7500 streams / 11650 sales = 19150 total
30 | offaiah - Trouble ~
6000 streams / 10800 sales = 18000 total
32 | Ghost Cast - With You ~
450 streams / 17500 sales = 17950 total
(the total might look a bit high - there's another version in the top 100 right now, but I'd also like to note this track probably won't hold up these high sales all week.)
33 | Zara Larsson - Ain't My Fault ~
5850 streams / 11025 sales = 16875 total
36 | Matoma & Becky Hill - False Alarm ~
8100 streams / 8200 sales = 16300 total
41 | Mike Perry ft Shy Martin - The Ocean ~
12320 streams / 2550 sales = 14870 total
30/42 | The Black Eyed Peas - #WHERESTHELOVE ~
1000 streams / 13860 sales = 14860 total (around 17000 if the original is combined with it)
46 | Digital Farm Animals & Cash Cash ft Nelly - Millionaire ~
7200 streams / 7100 sales = 14300 total
51 | DNCE - Toothbrush ~
6500 streams / 5900 sales = 12400 total

Remember, these are only estimations and the positions are based on the last few weeks' sales trends for certain positions. I'd take a guess and say that #WHERESTHELOVE and With You will NOT place anywhere near as high as this.

Feel free to request any estimations biggrin.gif


This post has been edited by mdh: Sep 4 2016, 06:14 PM
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Robbie
post Sep 4 2016, 07:23 PM
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Could you guess what the top 5 (even the top 10!) might be, using your method, to guess what sales may be? It would be interesting to see how close they are to actual sales and positions on Friday?

As streaming seems to follow a certain pattern during the chart week I'd be interested to see if your formula works well for that?
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JosephCarey
post Sep 4 2016, 07:29 PM
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These look quite accurate so far I think, bar With You which will no doubt fall hugely by the end of the week! I'm sure you'll be able to fine-tune the formula over time as well happy.gif
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twentyonemdh
post Sep 4 2016, 08:01 PM
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I'm very excited to bring you this projected chart, and to my delight it ACTUALLY LOOKS ACCURATE in terms of sales cheer.gif Feel free to ask for sales and positions of any songs you like biggrin.gif

1 ~ The Chainsmokers - Closer (feat. Halsey) ~ 88700
2 ~ DJ Snake - Let Me Love You (feat. Justin Bieber) ~ 62000
3 ~ Major Lazer - Cold Water (feat. Justin Bieber & M) ~ 57500
4 ~ Calum Scott - Dancing on My Own ~ 46800
5 ~ twenty one pilots - Heathens ~ 42500
6 ~ The Chainsmokers - Don't Let Me Down (feat. Daya) ~ 33100
7 ~ Olly Murs - You Don't Know Love ~ 32100
8 ~ Jonas Blue - Perfect Strangers (feat. JP Cooper) ~ 29800
9 ~ Shawn Mendes - Treat You Better ~ 29200
10 ~ Martin Garrix & Bebe Rexha - In the Name of Love ~ 28500
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Dobbo
post Sep 4 2016, 08:04 PM
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This actually makes me think if Let Me Love You could break the record for longest #2 of all time. The current top 2 look set in stone (in that order) for a good few weeks yet, the record is 7 consecutive weeks (All-4-One's I Swear) & 8 total week (Frank Chackfield's Terry's Theme).
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JosephCarey
post Sep 4 2016, 10:40 PM
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It will be interesting to see if Olly can hold up but I expect he won't survive and we'll end up with a Drake song back :')
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twentyonemdh
post Sep 5 2016, 05:48 AM
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QUOTE(JosephStyles @ Sep 4 2016, 11:40 PM) *
It will be interesting to see if Olly can hold up but I expect he won't survive and we'll end up with a Drake song back :')


Interestingly, Drake's tracks are placed at 13 & 14 - I think the small drops for One Dance this weekend on streaming have actually pushed him down a bit. I'd probably assume he'll be between 9 and 11 on Friday with One Dance and between 10 and 12 with Too Good.
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Dancember
post Sep 5 2016, 07:34 AM
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I'm 99% sure we'll get at least one drake song in the top ten.
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vidcapper
post Sep 5 2016, 09:16 AM
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QUOTE(mdh @ Sep 4 2016, 09:01 PM) *
I'm very excited to bring you this projected chart, and to my delight it ACTUALLY LOOKS ACCURATE in terms of sales cheer.gif Feel free to ask for sales and positions of any songs you like biggrin.gif

1 ~ The Chainsmokers - Closer (feat. Halsey) ~ 88700
2 ~ DJ Snake - Let Me Love You (feat. Justin Bieber) ~ 62000
3 ~ Major Lazer - Cold Water (feat. Justin Bieber & M) ~ 57500
4 ~ Calum Scott - Dancing on My Own ~ 46800
5 ~ twenty one pilots - Heathens ~ 42500
6 ~ The Chainsmokers - Don't Let Me Down (feat. Daya) ~ 33100
7 ~ Olly Murs - You Don't Know Love ~ 32100
8 ~ Jonas Blue - Perfect Strangers (feat. JP Cooper) ~ 29800
9 ~ Shawn Mendes - Treat You Better ~ 29200
10 ~ Martin Garrix & Bebe Rexha - In the Name of Love ~ 28500


Interesting - perhaps I should do some of my own sales projections. smile.gif

The Chainsmokers - Closer (feat. Halsey) ~ 92k
DJ Snake - Let Me Love You (feat. Justin Bieber) ~ 62k
Major Lazer - Cold Water (feat. Justin Bieber & M) ~ 59k
Calum Scott - Dancing on My Own ~ 44k
twenty one pilots - Heathens ~ 44k
The Chainsmokers - Don't Let Me Down (feat. Daya) ~ 38k
Olly Murs - You Don't Know Love ~ 22k
Jonas Blue - Perfect Strangers (feat. JP Cooper) ~ 34k
Shawn Mendes - Treat You Better ~ 30k
Martin Garrix & Bebe Rexha - In the Name of Love ~ 32k

I am mystified as to why you have such a high figure for Olly Murs though - 5 weeks at #1 on airplay have done sod-all for him, so I can't imagine why his sales should shoot up? huh.gif
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Robbie
post Sep 5 2016, 10:02 AM
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QUOTE(mdh @ Sep 4 2016, 09:01 PM) *
I'm very excited to bring you this projected chart, and to my delight it ACTUALLY LOOKS ACCURATE in terms of sales cheer.gif Feel free to ask for sales and positions of any songs you like biggrin.gif

1 ~ The Chainsmokers - Closer (feat. Halsey) ~ 88700
2 ~ DJ Snake - Let Me Love You (feat. Justin Bieber) ~ 62000
3 ~ Major Lazer - Cold Water (feat. Justin Bieber & M) ~ 57500
4 ~ Calum Scott - Dancing on My Own ~ 46800
5 ~ twenty one pilots - Heathens ~ 42500
6 ~ The Chainsmokers - Don't Let Me Down (feat. Daya) ~ 33100
7 ~ Olly Murs - You Don't Know Love ~ 32100
8 ~ Jonas Blue - Perfect Strangers (feat. JP Cooper) ~ 29800
9 ~ Shawn Mendes - Treat You Better ~ 29200
10 ~ Martin Garrix & Bebe Rexha - In the Name of Love ~ 28500
Cheers mdh! I feel like going to the bookies and putting a 1 bet on this being the top 10 on Friday... Olly Murs is the outsider but I believe he appeared on the first episode of the new series of "Strictly Come Dancing" so should get a boost in sales all through the week (I see he's at #3 on iTunes today).
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Robbie
post Sep 5 2016, 10:15 AM
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QUOTE( @ Sep 4 2016, 09:04 PM) *
This actually makes me think if Let Me Love You could break the record for longest #2 of all time. The current top 2 look set in stone (in that order) for a good few weeks yet, the record is 7 consecutive weeks (All-4-One's I Swear) & 8 total week (Frank Chackfield's Terry's Theme).
Don't forget 'Moves Like Jagger', that also spent 7 consecutive weeks at number 2 too, back in 2011! (blimey, 5 years ago already cry.gif )
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vidcapper
post Sep 5 2016, 10:21 AM
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QUOTE(Robbie @ Sep 5 2016, 11:02 AM) *
Cheers mdh! I feel like going to the bookies and putting a 1 bet on this being the top 10 on Friday... Olly Murs is the outsider but I believe he appeared on the first episode of the new series of "Strictly Come Dancing" so should get a boost in sales all through the week (I see he's at #3 on iTunes today).


I didn't know that - if so, it would show how little being #1 on airplay actually means...
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Robbie
post Sep 5 2016, 10:24 AM
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QUOTE(vidcapper @ Sep 5 2016, 11:21 AM) *
I didn't know that - if so, it would show how little being #1 on airplay actually means...
A fair % of his airplay audience was down to both Radio 1 and Radio 2 playing the track 20+ times each week for a while - which in turn shows how little influence Radio 1 can have on the charts these days...
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twentyonemdh
post Sep 5 2016, 10:35 AM
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QUOTE(vidcapper @ Sep 5 2016, 10:16 AM) *
Interesting - perhaps I should do some of my own sales projections. smile.gif

The Chainsmokers - Closer (feat. Halsey) ~ 92k
DJ Snake - Let Me Love You (feat. Justin Bieber) ~ 62k
Major Lazer - Cold Water (feat. Justin Bieber & M) ~ 59k
Calum Scott - Dancing on My Own ~ 44k
twenty one pilots - Heathens ~ 44k
The Chainsmokers - Don't Let Me Down (feat. Daya) ~ 38k
Olly Murs - You Don't Know Love ~ 22k
Jonas Blue - Perfect Strangers (feat. JP Cooper) ~ 34k
Shawn Mendes - Treat You Better ~ 30k
Martin Garrix & Bebe Rexha - In the Name of Love ~ 32k

I am mystified as to why you have such a high figure for Olly Murs though - 5 weeks at #1 on airplay have done sod-all for him, so I can't imagine why his sales should shoot up? huh.gif


This is based on current trends - the figures are based on the basis that Olly Murs retains this momentum on iTunes. There's a chance he won't make the top 10 but if he carry's on at this sales level there is a very good chance he could keep selling enough to make the top 10 biggrin.gif
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The Hit Parade
post Sep 7 2016, 10:09 PM
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QUOTE(vidcapper @ Sep 5 2016, 10:21 AM) *
I didn't know that - if so, it would show how little being #1 on airplay actually means...


It probably means a lot less to somebody like Olly Murs, because he is so loved by UK radio that anything he releases is guaranteed to be a huge airplay hit, however appealing it is to a wider public.
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twentyonemdh
post Sep 10 2016, 09:43 AM
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My predictions results~

28/24 | Ariana Grande ft Nicki Minaj - Side To Side ~
19150 predicted / 21750 actual
30/31 | offaiah - Trouble ~
18000 predicted / 17200 actual
33/30 | Zara Larsson - Ain't My Fault ~
16875 predicted / 18500 actual
36/35 | Matoma & Becky Hill - False Alarm ~
16300 predicted / 15600 actual
41/39 | Mike Perry ft Shy Martin - The Ocean ~
14870 predicted / 14500 actual
42/47 | The Black Eyed Peas - #WHERESTHELOVE ~
14860 predicted / 13200 actual
46/36 | Digital Farm Animals & Cash Cash ft Nelly - Millionaire ~
14300 predicted / 15170 actual

1/1 ~ The Chainsmokers - Closer (feat. Halsey) ~ 88700/91600
2/2 ~ DJ Snake - Let Me Love You (feat. Justin Bieber) ~ 62000/61500
3/3 ~ Major Lazer - Cold Water (feat. Justin Bieber & M) ~ 57500/59000
4/4 ~ Calum Scott - Dancing on My Own ~ 46800/44200
5/5 ~ twenty one pilots - Heathens ~ 42500/43800
6/6 ~ The Chainsmokers - Don't Let Me Down (feat. Daya) ~ 33100/38300
7/15 ~ Olly Murs - You Don't Know Love ~ 32100/25100
8/7 ~ Jonas Blue - Perfect Strangers (feat. JP Cooper) ~ 29800/32900
9/8 ~ Shawn Mendes - Treat You Better ~ 29200/31600
10/10 ~ Martin Garrix & Bebe Rexha - In the Name of Love ~ 28500/29200

So surprised at just how close I got with a fair few of them ohmy.gif I'll make some predictions for this weeks tracks tomorrow when we have more sales data - feel free to ask for any estimates.

Oh, and I am slightly changing the streams-other-than-Spotify estimation based on the rolling 7 day total on Kworb and overall stream total given for Closer, this may make the predictions more accurate, but we'll have to see.
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vidcapper
post Sep 10 2016, 11:47 AM
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QUOTE(vidcapper @ Sep 5 2016, 10:16 AM) *
Interesting - perhaps I should do some of my own sales projections. smile.gif

The Chainsmokers - Closer (feat. Halsey) ~ 92k (91.6k)
DJ Snake - Let Me Love You (feat. Justin Bieber) ~ 62k (61,5k)
Major Lazer - Cold Water (feat. Justin Bieber & M) ~ 59k (59k)
Calum Scott - Dancing on My Own ~ 44k (44.2k)
twenty one pilots - Heathens ~ 44k (43.8k)
The Chainsmokers - Don't Let Me Down (feat. Daya) ~ 38k (38.3k)
Olly Murs - You Don't Know Love ~ 22k (25.1k)
Jonas Blue - Perfect Strangers (feat. JP Cooper) ~ 34k (32.9k)
Shawn Mendes - Treat You Better ~ 30k (31.6k)
Martin Garrix & Bebe Rexha - In the Name of Love ~ 32k (29.2k)


Looks like I did extremely well - though if I hadn't, I might have had to resign my post as sales estimator... laugh.gif
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twentyonemdh
post Sep 10 2016, 02:35 PM
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Mine was based on a formula, remember tongue.gif my predictions weren't remotely based on personal opinion.
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vidcapper
post Sep 10 2016, 05:03 PM
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QUOTE(*.* @ Sep 10 2016, 03:35 PM) *
Mine was based on a formula, remember tongue.gif my predictions weren't remotely based on personal opinion.


Mine were based on formulas too - as well as calculating sales, my spreadsheets log week-by-week % sales changes too. smile.gif
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twentyonemdh
post Sep 17 2016, 09:21 AM
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I've done some sales projections based on James' current figures for iTunes and Spotify, and if he continues to sell at this rate (considering he's likely sell more if he continues to grow at such an alarming rate on Spotify) he will comfortably be number two next week, as his sales are to be roughly 64,000 if he continues at this rate.

Calvin looks to enter around #6 at this point.
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