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> Could a Christmas song go to #1 this year?
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Scene
post Sep 18 2016, 12:18 AM
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I ask this since streaming has become a far bigger force this year even compared to just last year. Christmas songs did well in the digital era anyway so could the rising popularity of streaming cause one of them to go to #1 this year? A lot of people will be going onto the Christmas playlists presumably and since digital sales are declining rapidly, would it be ridiculous to think Fairytale Of New York or All I Want For Christmas Is You could be #1 this Christmas? laugh.gif

This post has been edited by Scene: Sep 18 2016, 12:18 AM
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Rob S~
post Sep 18 2016, 12:27 AM
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Even with Christmas songs increasing in streaming as the years go by will not be enough for Mariah or The Pogues to go to #1 for Christmas. Maybe top 5 for one of them is not impossible in the next few years but to answer this question not a chance this year.

You'd have to bear in mind that both have missed the top 10 ever since streaming has been introduced to the official chart!


This post has been edited by Rob S: Sep 18 2016, 12:30 AM
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Houdini
post Sep 18 2016, 12:31 AM
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No. Justin Bieber will number one at Christmas.
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cqmerqn
post Sep 18 2016, 07:47 AM
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Well you never know laugh.gif
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Danuary
post Sep 18 2016, 08:41 AM
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I think Mariah Carey will be well within the top 10 this year. Remember she only missed out last year because Christmas Eve was a Thursday (and you all know about Thursday streams..), and streaming has only grown since.

#1 will be out of reach for her though. I think we may even get a normal song at #1 this year unless we have a charity song on the selling power level of Military Wives.
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ThePensmith
post Sep 18 2016, 10:11 AM
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We are approaching the back end of a year where Drake was at number one for four months. I'd hazard a guess at 'no' in answer to that question but stranger things have happened.

As has been pointed out above, the usual festive suspects - the Pogues, Carey, Wizzard etc - were all kept out of the top 10 due to streaming last year. And for all the world I can't see your Spotifys and Deezers giving homepage playlist exposure to 20, 30, in some cases 40 year old songs that lose all chart momentum come Boxing Day.

The trouble is as well, and I think it is this: people's idea of a Christmas song now is John Lewis getting some wispy voiced thing with a really twee stage name no one has ever heard of and will never hear of again beyond the preceding January to do some emotive, minimalist cover of any old thing and watch it do the business because of some rubbish advert.

Wouldn't surprise me in the least bit if this year it's some girl called Rain with a stripped back cover of "Agadoo" set to scenes of a snowman looking morosely on at a party he's not invited to, only to be taken in by some kid who should know better.

Oooh, I've gone all Charlie Brooker on my ass.
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jakewild
post Sep 18 2016, 10:13 AM
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if only mariah did xmas promo like she overdoes in america i think she could make it
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Dobbo
post Sep 18 2016, 10:33 AM
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The date Christmas day falls is crucial. It's on a Sunday this year so I don't think any Xmas tracks will end up going top 10 as the tracking week will end the Thursday before so the biggest day of streaming (Christmas day itself) won't contribute to that week. Then the week after will have 4 days of zero buying/streaming so I can't see it happening this time. We'll have to wait for Christmas day to fall on a Thursday...

As for the #1 itself, the UK is still not ready for a "normal" #1, last year would have been the one the signalled the change & it still didn't happen, so lacklustre charity single again it will be this year (and it will be only the second #1 of 2016 to spend a solitary week at the top)
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Danuary
post Sep 18 2016, 10:46 AM
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oh indeed I forgot about actually searching when Christmas Day falls. It seems the Christmas songs boost will be spread out across two chart weeks, as the two biggest days for Xmas streaming (24th and 25th) are at the start of the chart week and after that Xmas songs will plummet out the Spotify chart. And of course they already start plummeting down the iTunes chart on Xmas day itself. So yeah, seems unlikely that they'll get high peaks this year.
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Steve201
post Sep 18 2016, 10:47 AM
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Who knows what'll happen in the charts over the final quarter we didn't think James Arthur would be iTunes no1 2 weeks ago and now look.

As people above said tho we will have to wait until Xmas day falls on a Thursday to see if this will happen.

As for John Lewis - I think it's peak may have passed for now.
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Steve201
post Sep 18 2016, 10:49 AM
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QUOTE(danG @ Sep 18 2016, 11:46 AM) *
oh indeed I forgot about actually searching when Christmas Day falls. It seems the Christmas songs boost will be spread out across two chart weeks, as the two biggest days for Xmas streaming (24th and 25th) are at the start of the chart week and after that Xmas songs will plummet out the Spotify chart. And of course they already start plummeting down the iTunes chart on Xmas day itself. So yeah, seems unlikely that they'll get high peaks this year.


Some like Mariah will be streamed enough on Friday and Saturday to be top 40 the following week which always makes it funny seeing AIWFCIY in the top 40 on MTV right up until 6/1 lol
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Danuary
post Sep 18 2016, 10:50 AM
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it'll actually be better for Christmas Day to fall on a Wednesday, because if it's on a Thursday then streams from the day won't actually get counted (as Thursday streams never do, the OCC always estimate based on trends from the past week)
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Dobbo
post Sep 18 2016, 10:51 AM
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Good point^ Roll on 2019!
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Steve201
post Sep 18 2016, 10:53 AM
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Yeh Dan is right - I was disgusted by Thursday's guesstimates underplaying them last year on the chart.
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Doctor Blind
post Sep 18 2016, 10:58 AM
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Mariah Carey was New Year #1 on the 2013 streaming chart (when Christmas fell on a Wednesday) - but as others have already mentioned this year it is on a Sunday meaning that the peak streaming will be split between two weeks.
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Steve201
post Sep 18 2016, 11:07 AM
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And by 2019 streaming could be in a different place to now!
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Scene
post Sep 18 2016, 11:15 AM
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Oh I didn't think of what day Christmas falls on this year. laugh.gif But I think what we need to remember is that buying a song is different to listening to a song. Lots of people like to listen to Christmas tracks from late November whereas they are probably less inclined to purchase them. If 'One Dance' could stay at #1 for nearly 4 months despite being out of the sales top 10 (my knowledge of the current charts is rusty so I might be wrong here), is it really that impossible for a Christmas song to top the official chart the Friday before Christmas? unsure.gif
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Doctor Blind
post Sep 18 2016, 11:18 AM
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Yep: Imagining will have taken over - many will condemn the imagining chart for ruining the streaming chart. Ministry of Sound will still be holding back releases on digital platforms of course and charting at #126 in their first week.
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Danuary
post Sep 18 2016, 11:21 AM
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QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Sep 18 2016, 12:18 PM) *
Yep: Imagining will have taken over - many will condemn the imagining chart for ruining the streaming chart. Ministry of Sound will still be holding back releases on digital platforms of course and charting at #126 in their first week.

You do realise MoS have stopped holding back releases now? laugh.gif
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Doctor Blind
post Sep 18 2016, 11:27 AM
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They've been taken over by Sony haven't they? Good riddance!
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