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> At last some compassion from the Tories.
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commonsense
post Oct 1 2016, 07:43 AM
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The Chancellor will apparently announce this week in his Tory conference speech that people on Full Support ESA with severe illnesses that aren't likely to improve or will get progressively worse, won't be re-assessed as often. The example given was autism and people severely mentally ill but hope it applies to people like me who have had depression for 30+ years. Should also apply to terminally ill cancer patients as they won't get any better obviously. I've not been assessed for over 3 years now and didn't even have an Atos meeting last time. Corbyn said this week that he'd do away with the esa assessments if they got in to power but this doesn't go so far. Many people will still be regularly asessed.

This post has been edited by Common Sense: Oct 1 2016, 07:46 AM
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Brett-Butler
post Oct 1 2016, 11:02 AM
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I'll wait until it's announced at the party conference and has been enacted into practice before I pop open the champagne to celebrate. If one were of a cynical nature, one could potentially read into this as Theresa May's attempt to gain some positive headlines for her government before announcing a snap election in the new year to exploit Labour's internal issues, but I think if that were the case, we'd have heard more rumblings by now.
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commonsense
post Oct 1 2016, 02:01 PM
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She can't just "announce" a snap election! She has to either change the fixed term parliament legislation or the Tories initiate a no confidence vote in their own government. My betting is that she'll wait until the boundary changes come in and then it'll be nearly 2020 so I think the parliament will run it's full term.
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Suedehead2
post Oct 1 2016, 03:35 PM
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QUOTE(Common Sense @ Oct 1 2016, 03:01 PM) *
She can't just "announce" a snap election! She has to either change the fixed term parliament legislation or the Tories initiate a no confidence vote in their own government. My betting is that she'll wait until the boundary changes come in and then it'll be nearly 2020 so I think the parliament will run it's full term.

Or she can win a two-thirds vote in the Commons for an early dissolution. If Labour support it, the vote will be won with ease. The Telegraph are running a story predicting a Tory majority of around 60 in an early election. Labour could consider that to be acceptable if it means they can get rid of Corbyn and hope to deprive the Tories of a majority in 2022.
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Qassändra
post Oct 1 2016, 03:57 PM
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Said Labour backbenchers will be in for a very nasty surprise if they genuinely think the party will only lose twelve seats. Labour's support is up in inner city stronghold seats and they're down in the polls overall. I guess there's an outside chance the difference will be made up entirely in Labour support going down in Tory strongholds but somehow I suspect that's not on the cards.
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Suedehead2
post Oct 1 2016, 04:31 PM
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QUOTE(Qassändra @ Oct 1 2016, 04:57 PM) *
Said Labour backbenchers will be in for a very nasty surprise if they genuinely think the party will only lose twelve seats. Labour's support is up in inner city stronghold seats and they're down in the polls overall. I guess there's an outside chance the difference will be made up entirely in Labour support going down in Tory strongholds but somehow I suspect that's not on the cards.

Where do you get twelve from? A Tory majority of 60 means Labour will lose around twice that figure, unless you envisage the Tories winning several seats from the SNP.
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Danny
post Oct 1 2016, 05:48 PM
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QUOTE(Qassändra @ Oct 1 2016, 04:57 PM) *
Said Labour backbenchers will be in for a very nasty surprise if they genuinely think the party will only lose twelve seats. Labour's support is up in inner city stronghold seats and they're down in the polls overall. I guess there's an outside chance the difference will be made up entirely in Labour support going down in Tory strongholds but somehow I suspect that's not on the cards.


This is flatly contradicted by the local elections, where they were up compared to 2015 by considerably more in the marginals than nationally.

In particular, on current polls, they'd probably fall quite a bit in some of the "traditional" Leave-voting seats (their poll ratings with "C2DE" voters are about the same or sometimes even worse than with middle-class voters), but with the opposition too split between the Tories and UKIP for them to actually lose many of the seats - thus making the Labour vote more "efficient". They physically *can't* climb much more in the inner cities since they already climbed so near to the ceiling in 2015 (how are they going to improve on 80% in Liverpool Walton or East Ham, for example?).


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Danny
post Oct 1 2016, 05:54 PM
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On topic, Theresa May is proving to be a vast improvement on Cameron/Osborne. I always found it baffling that Osborne was considered by the clueless pundits as "centre ground", when in terms of welfare he was far more cruel than Thatcher ever was. May seems atleast a bit more genuinely concerned about poorer people.

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Qassändra
post Oct 1 2016, 06:15 PM
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QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Oct 1 2016, 05:31 PM) *
Where do you get twelve from? A Tory majority of 60 means Labour will lose around twice that figure, unless you envisage the Tories winning several seats from the SNP.

Correction - 17, not 12. The original story has the Tories gaining 16, Labour losing 17, the SNP losing 1, the Lib Dems gaining 1 and Others gaining 1 (UKIP?).

Though that said, 346 seats plus the Speaker would be a majority of 43, so I'm not sure where they're getting 62 from.
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Qassändra
post Oct 1 2016, 06:18 PM
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QUOTE(Danny @ Oct 1 2016, 06:48 PM) *
This is flatly contradicted by the local elections, where they were up compared to 2015 by considerably more in the marginals than nationally.

In particular, on current polls, they'd probably fall quite a bit in some of the "traditional" Leave-voting seats (their poll ratings with "C2DE" voters are about the same or sometimes even worse than with middle-class voters), but with the opposition too split between the Tories and UKIP for them to actually lose many of the seats - thus making the Labour vote more "efficient". They physically *can't* climb much more in the inner cities since they already climbed so near to the ceiling in 2015 (how are they going to improve on 80% in Liverpool Walton or East Ham, for example?).

Bristol and anywhere in North London with a Green vote worth writing home about will probably see a Corbyn bonus. In any case, in a snap election in the next six months I think it's extremely unlikely the Tories will be on 30% of the vote.
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Qassändra
post Oct 1 2016, 06:20 PM
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QUOTE(Danny @ Oct 1 2016, 06:54 PM) *
On topic, Theresa May is proving to be a vast improvement on Cameron/Osborne. I always found it baffling that Osborne was considered by the clueless pundits as "centre ground", when in terms of welfare he was far more cruel than Thatcher ever was. May seems atleast a bit more genuinely concerned about poorer people.

Give with one hand, take with the other. If grammar schools come back en masse it would do more to harm the less well-off than anything Thatcher or Osborne ever did.
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Danny
post Oct 1 2016, 06:34 PM
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QUOTE(Qassändra @ Oct 1 2016, 07:18 PM) *
Bristol and anywhere in North London with a Green vote worth writing home about will probably see a Corbyn bonus. In any case, in a snap election in the next six months I think it's extremely unlikely the Tories will be on 30% of the vote.


They won't be as low as that, but it's fair to assume the rise in their support from this year's locals will be roughly proportionally the same. After all, virtually all the big trends in the 2015 general election were foreshadowed by the European elections a year earlier (HUGE swings to Labour in the big cities especially in London/Manchester/Liverpool, far smaller swings in most of the marginal small-town territory, a significant swing from the Lib Dems to the Tories in the marginal-heavy South West) - though the exception is that the big Scottish swing wasn't foreshadowed.


QUOTE(Qassändra @ Oct 1 2016, 07:20 PM) *
Give with one hand, take with the other. If grammar schools come back en masse it would do more to harm the less well-off than anything Thatcher or Osborne ever did.


Although I'm not sure whether grammar schools will help that much, they're not going to actively harm poor people in the same way as snatching away the very few crumbs that welfare claimants have. Not getting the chance to go to the best school in town is nowhere near as bad as not getting decent food on the table.


This post has been edited by Danny: Oct 1 2016, 06:38 PM
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Qassändra
post Oct 1 2016, 06:44 PM
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QUOTE(Danny @ Oct 1 2016, 07:34 PM) *
Although I'm not sure whether grammar schools will help that much, they're not going to actively harm poor people in the same way as snatching away the very few crumbs that welfare claimants have. Not getting the chance to go to the best school in town is nowhere near as bad as not getting decent food on the table.

It's an depth/breadth comparison. The whole reason secondary moderns were so unpopular towards the end of the grammar system was because so many were cut off and sent to substandard schools. It wasn't so much a case of not going to the best school in town as the ones who didn't get into the two or three good schools in town getting sent to actively poor schools. It's something that means plenty who don't get decent food on the table now will lose one of the main lifelines that allows them to ever get decent food on the table.
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Chop-part-freak
post Oct 3 2016, 12:35 PM
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Tories have slways had compassion...

Compassion for wealthy bankers, for poor rich people having to stick their stash out of the country, for encouraging the best jobs go to offspring of the rich and powerful, for rich goreign businessmen wanting control of and interfering in domestic affairs.

I could go on, of course, but reigning in the cynicism im sure the promises to boost housing will be as successful as the last 4 governments assurances, im sure the funds to academies will match grammar schools, im convinced uk industry will get a boost from all those foreign countries lining up to buy our goods, and thus create a lovely neat circle for the failed grammar school kids to get training for industry which will allow them yo buy the new houses and stay off benefits.

I have nothing yo back that view up other than what theyve announced, but i trust tories implicitly to fo what they say they will do.

Pemwiv tongue.gif
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Suedehead2
post Oct 3 2016, 12:40 PM
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Ah, but the Tories have a plan. Take that nice Mr Hunt as an example. He has stated that it won't be a problem if all those nasty foreign doctors leave after we've quit the EU, because they will be replaced by British doctors. Just try not to think too carefully about where those trained British doctors will come from given that training takes several years. We wouldn't want to confuse Hunt by bothering him with minor details like that.
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Chop-part-freak
post Oct 3 2016, 08:58 PM
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given that the nice British doctors prefer nicer salaries and less hours which they can get elsewhere, that plan has the usual Tory logic in it. A bit like that lovely plan to sell off council housing half price to boost the housing market to keep the banks afloat at tax payer expense (again) which is failing to replace them at the rate they are being sold off nationally.

Tories: crap at theory, crap in practise, crap with logic, excellent at being economical with the truth, decades of experience.....
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commonsense
post Oct 4 2016, 04:39 PM
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Back on topic, the Work and Pensions Secretary confirmed today at the conference that people with the most serious illnesses or people who's condition can only get worse won't be continually assessed. Hope this applies to life-long depression.
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Chop-part-freak
post Oct 4 2016, 06:53 PM
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...and yet more compassion from Teresa May who has gracefully decided to allow doctors who have been saving our lives for decades to stay in the country until some British (eg white, by inference) are trained up. Repeating what Suedey points out Hunt said.

Don't know about anyone else but I would MUCH rather be operated on by an experienced foreign doctor than a young fresh new white British doctor. maybe it's just me, but comes over as a bit racist, a bit ungrateful, a bit simple-minded (the qualified doctors will all bugger off to better paid jobs elsewhere anyway after a decade or so). There are course plenty of well-paid white doctors in the private sector in the UK, not overworked, the private hospitals are calm, well-staffed, subsidised by the NHS who can't cope - yes I've seen them, been in them, they are terrific, and as long as rich powerful people have them on call the NHS will continue to be seen as a nuisance needlessly keeping drains on society (ie poor people, old people, ill people) alive.

Very compassionate Mrs May, who sounds like a Hunt it would seem.
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Suedehead2
post Oct 4 2016, 09:04 PM
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Indeed. Note how Hunt has threatened to fine doctors who go abroad, but doesn't seem to have said anything about doctors who use their training to go straight into private practice. Equally, he seems to have forgotten to suggest that governments which have paid to train doctors who have found a job in the UK might also want "their money back". Funny that.
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commonsense
post Oct 5 2016, 03:56 PM
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Brilliant speech from May today. She's looking at a landslide similar to 1997 at the election in 2020.
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