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Soy Adrián
post Dec 30 2016, 11:16 PM
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Optimism will not be tolerated.
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Brett-Butler
post Dec 30 2016, 11:51 PM
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Aww, misplaced optimism is kinda my thing.

Anyway, here are my ill-informed predictions for 2017 -

1. UK Politics - both the Lib Dems and the Conservatives will gain a seat in by-elections. In the aftermath of the Conservative by-election victory, there will be a groundswell of support among the press and many MPs for Teresa May to call an immediate General Election, which will come to nothing and peter out after a few weeks.

Jeremy Corbyn will still be the Labour leader come the end of 2017, and with no leadership challenges for his position for the current year. Although there will be rumours that several major Labourites will defect to the Lib Dems, aside from a few token shadow cabinet resignations, it will be business (or no business?) as usual for Labour.

UKIP will continue to maintain the same level of support, finishing 2nd in several by-elections but not breaking through in any meaningful way. Nuttall will do the impossible and see out the year without Farage taking the reigns again.

A 2nd Scottish referendum will be called by the end of 2017, which will take place in 2018.

Arlene Foster will resign as First Minister in Northern Ireland, with Nigel Dodds taking over as DUP Leader/1st Minister. This results in a by-election in Belfast North, which Brett-Butler will stand in as an independent candidate on a strong Battenberg platform (and he will insist that his fellow members of Buzzjack hold him to his word on this if the prediction of a Belfast North by-election happens in 2017).

2. French presidential elections - In the first round, Marine Le Pen will get the most votes by a margin of 5% over Les Repubicans in 2nd place. In the run-off, this will be reversed, with Les Republicans winning the presidency with 55% of the vote.

3. German elections - despite a strong challenge from the far-right AfD, Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats will still remain in power as part of a coalition. However, its minor coalition partner will make her resignation as chancellor one of the key terms of their partnership, and she will not be in power by the end of 2017.

I also predict that there will be a major terrorist attack in either France or Germany in the first 3 months of 2017, although I pray to God that it is one prediction that I am wrong about.

4. US - Donald Trump will end 2017 with an approval rating around the 40% mark. The amount of deportations in 2017 will be on a similar level to the amount deported in Obama's final year (2016), and there will be no permanent wall on the Mexican border built or in construction come the close of the year.
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Qassändra
post Dec 30 2016, 11:55 PM
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Let's see how well these do given I've spent the last two years being wrong about pretty much everything.

- French elections: Montebourg narrowly wins the Socialist Party nomination over Valls. Bayrou refuses to pull out and Emmanuel Macron's campaign implodes bigly, in part down to his 'apps will solve everything!'-esque vacuity. Despite Francois Fillon doing everything he can to antagonise the left, he holds on to enough elderly social conservatives that were dabbling with Front National to beat Le Pen in the run-off.

- German elections: Merkel stays in despite losing seats and forms another grand coalition with the SPD, who see seat losses despite the hyped return of Martin Schulz - though in part due to the re-entry into Parliament of the FDP and the entry of AfD, which causes sharp falls in top-up list seats for the major parties.

- Brexit negotiations become an ongoing car-crash in the wake of constant provocation of negotiators by Boris Johnson, David Davis and Liam Fox. Theresa May's plan (and best hand) to preserve single market access for sectors such as financial services by paying more into the EU budget is received with unbridled fury by morons who seem to think it deeply unreasonable that the UK can't have its cake and eat it. The wider public begins to shuffle nervously on its feet as inflation shoots up thanks to sterling tanking. Theresa May ends the year sorely regretting not calling that snap election as Ukip are revived by the return of hardcore Brexiteers. Newspapers begin to talk up the prospect of unilaterally exiting on the harshest WTO terms in 2018, for pride reasons or something.

- Labour continue to be completely fucking irrelevant and spend the year continuing to be caught between two stools and choosing to satisfy neither side. Corbyn voters begin to shift uneasily on their feet as Corbyn's complete inability to set the agenda becomes ever more transparent, particularly after the Conservatives gain Copeland in February. Chastened by the last leadership election backbench rebels hold fire, but grassroots murmurs shift to talking about when Corbyn will go, not if. Keir Starmer, Emily Thornberry and Clive Lewis spend all year in a tense rivalry to be seen as the natural successor: Keir Starmer through keeping his head down and performing well in the Brexit brief, and Thornberry and Lewis through attempting to establish themselves as the Corbynism with competence candidate (but without Owen Smith's betrayal). Keep an eye out for how all three place themselves on the immigration dividing line.

- Len McCluskey is re-elected general secretary of Unite.

- The Lib Dems make it to the heady heights of the mid-teens in the polls again and win another by-election. The polls at the end of 2017: CON 34, LAB 21, UKIP 18, LD 17, SNP 4, GRN 4

- Keith Ellison is elected as DNC chair as the Democrats decide to accept the Sanders agenda wholesale for 2020. An attempt to impeach Trump is made early on on the basis of his business conflicts of interest. Despite being entirely legally justified, it falls in the House as Republicans spit blood at an "attempted subversion of democracy", with Breitbart christening it the 'cuck coup'.

- Media outlets that criticise the Trump administration are denied White House press access, leading to a chilling effect on political reporting and an awakening of a resistance-mentality approach to reporting among a few select outlets that refuse to be cowed. Teen Vogue becomes the unlikely must-read magazine of the liberal elites.

- Riots occur across major US cities after Trump's full throated support of the police when a police officer is caught on camera beating and killing a black man in custody. An assassination attempt or terrorist attack leads to Trump declaring a state of emergency.

- Vladimir Putin invades a Baltic NATO nation specifically to provoke the fallout from Trump's likely refusal to abide by the invocation of Article 5, putting the existence of NATO in chaos. This unprecedented break in US foreign policy leads to John McCain and Lindsey Graham defecting to the Libertarian Party, and not much else.
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popchartfreak
post Dec 31 2016, 10:06 AM
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"caught between two stools": apt image, one stool named Corbyn, one McDonnell? laugh.gif

There will be a shock death in the christmas period as Nigel Farage freakishly gets accidentally eaten by a pack of fox hounds while out on his annual fox hunt with his working class compadres. He still gets elected the new leader of UKIP after Nuttall's head explodes under intense questioning on Question Time.

Donald Trump is found dead in his hotel bedroom in September following a Twitter-related stroke. It takes his staff 2 weeks to discover the body as back-seat government had become widely established, The Donald using twitter to issue policy statements while counting all the cash rolling into his bank account.

Vladimir Putin uses his new-found links to the American electorate to propose a joint-working arrangement from 2021, under the new banner The Unites States of America and Russia, happy to give over top billing as joint President with close friend President Mike Pence, who turns out to be much more liberal about that sort of thing than many had suspected.

PM May triggers article 50 on April 1st, rather appropriately a day late, following a deal with Jeremy Corbyn to allow it through on the assurance that she won't outlaw Unions. Unions are outlawed on April 2nd. The NHS is announced to be privatised along the same lines as schools, one "efficient" low-cost, high turnover model for lower tax payers, and one heavily subsidised for higher tax earners. Oddly, no-one complains at the removal of emergency ambulance services for the poor, most of them having passed away before getting to Emergency. This is marketed by expensive PR companies as a major success for the government as costs for the care of the elderly substantially fall.

Tax for anyone earning over £200,000 is abolished, and all British business registers in the British Virgin islands by Christmas.

Jeremy Hunt falls off his high horse in yet another freak riding accident, 2017 becoming widely known as the year of the freak political death. A private helicopter whisks him off to the nearest hospital available and freakishly crashes in the grounds, bursting into flames and exploding, leaving him suffering 99% burns. Doctors describe his condition as satisfactory.

well, you said no optimism.....
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Doctor Blind
post Dec 31 2016, 10:40 AM
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*Government loses appeal in Supreme Court over 'Brexit' Article 50, however Article 50 invoked in March 2017 after a successful vote in parliament.

*Corbyn breaths sigh of relief as Labour narrowly hang on in Copeland in February, but the Conservatives (currently the favourites) are an uncomfortably close runner-up.

*Inflation to hit 3% by the end of the year, in-part due to fall in value of pound but also increasing oil prices after recent OPEC deal. Interest rates remain at historically low 0.25% despite calls for them to be increased.

*Le Pen and the Front National to narrowly win in France, after Fillon's Thatcherite/establishment policies (e.g. raising the retirement age to 65, cutting civil servants, and scrapping the 35 hour week) prove broadly unpopular and fail to halt populist movement that has so far cemented unexpected victories for Brexit and Trump.

*Little negotiation takes place on subject of 'Brexit' as EU remains fragmented after Le Pen win and Angela Merkel struggling (but eventually) forming a coalition by the end of 2017.
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Soy Adrián
post Dec 31 2016, 01:24 PM
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Would McCain and Graham really defect to the Libertarians in response to the Republican president being too isolationist? Surely they'd have nowhere to go.
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5 Silas Frøkner
post Dec 31 2016, 02:23 PM
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I predict that:

- The Scottish Council elections in May 2017 will revolve around the debate on #Indyref2

- Ruth Davidson will continue to contradict herself in support of a hard brexit winning her party votes in Moray and the Borders but taking the sheen off her image in the lowland rural areas and caithness and the islands.

- Scottish Labour will lose control of Glasgow City Council. The SNP will take control. They'll be the largest party by far after the elections but will only control councils in the greater Glasgow area - with the exception of Dundee. The east coast will be more fragmented with 'NOC' situations that lead to grand unionist coalitions in places like Edinburgh. Fife will be on a knife edge. I think maybe NOC but there's a good shot that the SNP will take control.

- Le Pen will narrowly lose the French Election thus saving the EU but France will see a rise in hate crimes akin to the UK and USA.

- Merkel will win in Germany thanks to her dive to the right to head off her former supporters switching to AfD.

- Boris will deeply offend 15 countries. 3 of whom will withdraw their ambassador.

- UK Gov will lose Art 50 court case in supreme court who will rule that the devolved administrations need to consent. Wales will talk tough about not giving consent before polling showing further Labour losses to UKIP forces them to back down. NI will roll over like the good little lapdogs that the DUP are without fear of reprisal as DUP voters voted for a return to the 17th century anyway. Scotland will tell May to f*** off and withhold consent. UK Gov will appeal, ignoring the irony, to EUCJ.

- May will trigger Article 50 via a parliamentary vote while appealing against ruling of supreme court to bypass Holyrood. Labour will flop around and no one will know their position leading to the party voting with the government or abstaining. The SNP will vote entirely against the bill, as will PC and Greens. Despite the 'progressive co-alition' outnumbering them 8-1, the LibDems will get all the headlines for voting against the bill anyway. BBC will forget once more that the SNP have 50+ seats and thus make up the lion share of the 70 votes against Art 50 causing even more insane ramblings from Wings over Scotland about BBC bias.

- May's approach will call Sturgeons bluff on triggering Indyref2.

- Sturgeon will call a vote on the Indyref2 bill, passing through Holyrood with Greens support. Ruth will almost have an aneurism in protest, Kez will scream loudly about nothing as usual and everyone will have forgotten what she said the moment she sits down. Willie Rennie will be quietly furious, but consider if it's worth backing to keep EU membership

- Unionist press will go all out on anti-independence propaganda again, however the Daily Record will support the YES campaign. The Sun will tie itself in knots and self combust.

- Everyone will forget the council elections even happened.

- Indyref2 will be held in June and Yes will take a narrow victory after scores of EU heads of state and MEPs back Scotlands wish to be seen as the successor state to the UK. Spain will throw a paddy but will be firmly smacked down by Germany and France after they threaten to bankrupt Banco Santander and without bailout funds. They'll also point out the obvious that Catalonia cannot use this to draw parallels with its own campaign as the rest of Spain isn't leaving the EU. Spain will be huffy but will not veto Scotland's accession instead using the time while rUK is distracted to play petty border games with Gibraltar.

- President Trump's first 100days will go smoothly despite Democrats attempting to unseat him. Gangs of neo-nazi's will roam the streets at nights hunting anti-trump campaigners. Trump will deputise the leaders of these gangs. By Christmas, Canada will have 15m americans living in refugee camps on its borders. Mexico will have built that wall, and paid for it, to keep the Americans out - Trump will claim this as a victory leading to soaring approval ratings from 12 to 22. Europe will know the meaning of refugee crisis when Americans book one way tickets on planes in such extravagant numbers that the EU bans transatlantic one-way tickets. Wealthy americans will buy return tickets and not go home to get round the ban. The UK Gov will welcome the American refugees including scores of Fortune 500 companies -as white immigration is good immigration.

- The collapse of the USA will offset the UK's stupidity and £1 will be worth $2.60

- €1 will be worth £14.60
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T83:Y96
post Dec 31 2016, 03:16 PM
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In France:

With Emmanuel Macron's independent run taking votes away from the Socialists, the final round is between Le Pen and Fillon. Fillon's extreme policies (scrapping the 35 hour work week, raising the retirement age, etc.) make him too rightwing for many leftists, leaving the door open to Le Pen, who becomes president. As promised, a referendum on France's membership in the European Union takes place later that year. Scenarios:
  • Due to people who refused to vote for François Fillon (who has since pretty much left politics after a humiliating defeat in his constituency at the legislative elections) returning to the polls to vote in favor of EU membership (aswell as regular news coverage of how the UK is falling apart due to Brexit), Remain (or Rester in French) wins by a far larger margin than expected, triggering Le Pen's resignation and another presidential election in early 2018 (or even late 2017).
  • The influx of abstentees in the presidential election returning to the polls for the EU referendum keeps France in the European Union, but by the expected margin, meaning Le Pen stays in power until 2022.
  • Despite the neither Fillon or Le Pen voters mentionned previously largely voting Remain/Rester, Leave/Quitter pulls off a surprise win and Le Pen triggers Article 50 almost immediately, and France follows the UK out of the European Union. This scenario is unlikely, but not impossible in the event of a new terrorist attack on French soil rallying more people towards Front National.

In the UK:

Scotland holds a referendum on UK membership where a majority votes to secede, meaning the diminished UK is now embroiled in two negociations, with both the EU and soon-to-be independent Scotland. Meanwhile, following Theresa May's invokement of Article 50 the pound tanks and by the end of the United Kingdom's GDP is no longer in the world's top 10. Scotland will negociate to become an EU member, but Spain will veto, with Germany (and France if they haven't left by this point) forcing Spain to remove their veto all while making it clear to Catalonia that as the state they want to secede from isn't leaving from the EU this doesn't mean they would allow them as an independent nation. As the Republic of Scotland offers citizenship to anyone who lives in Scotland on the day of independance Theresa May turns the net migration figures around as now more people are going of the diminished UK than people coming in. The United Kingdom, at this point the United Kingdom of England, Wales and Northern Ireland is descending into a one-party state with Labour falling apart due to Corbyn's incompentence, meaning the Tories have no major opposition, fueling expectations of an unprecedented win in 2020.

In the United States:

With Trump destroying almost all gun regulations, and outlawing any gun regulations imposed by states, soon gun control in America is non-existent even in California, New York or Washington D.C. Trump also undoes Obamacare aswell as many ecological plans made by Obama and deregulating non-renewable energies, also waging diplomatic war against the soon-to-be independent over the offshore windfarm which would block the view from his golf course. I suspect the EU could eventually make Trump back down, but anything is possible. Due to Trump's war on future generation's ability to live on Earth, many Americans (but also people from other countries) decide to take matters into their own hands and start planting solar panels on their roof, aswell as using less petrol either by switching to a hybrid, doing more carpooling or simply by driving their cars less.

Despite some predictions, the US does not overtake France as the most visited country by tourists due to massive regulations of travel from countries such as Mexico (obviously), many Muslim countries, and perhaps even some European countries such as France and Germany which mean most people can't be bothered with the hassle. Whether this is enough to see the US fall to third behind Spain is unclear.

Perhaps there could be some people moving to Canada or other countries due to a Trump presidency, but most Americans decide to stick it out in order to stop Trump from winning a second term in 2020. Unless Silas's scenario plays out of course.
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Meatball Cody
post Dec 31 2016, 09:13 PM
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Or all life on earth will be extinguished the second Trump gets inaugurated
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MoistSummerFruit
post Jan 1 2017, 01:19 AM
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Trump is too incompetent to do it the SECOND he is elected. He'll get around to it incompetently eventually.
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popchartfreak
post Jan 9 2017, 01:02 PM
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OK, so who had "UK headed for Hard Brexit" down as a guess? Oh, everyone..... ohmy.gif

Anyone have "Trump slags off Streep on Twitter rather than do his job"? I had it last night after her speech, he is so easy to goad into an angry tweet, given his ego is the size of Jupiter and his brain the size of a small, very hard, frozen pea....
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Danny
post Jan 10 2017, 08:50 PM
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My main prediction is that Brexit support will have increased substantially by the end of the year (roughly 60-40 to Leave in any polls, perhaps). Once the negotiations start, either the EU will give into British demands and basically pave the way for a smooth Brexit, in which case many Remain voters who didn't really care about the EU but were just worried about the fallout will stop believing that there's anything to worry about; or, if the EU plays hardball, and is perceived to be trying to not give Britain a good deal out of spite, then a lot of Remain voters will probably think "screw you then, we don't want to stay with you if you're going to be unreasonable anyway".
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popchartfreak
post Jan 10 2017, 09:53 PM
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Don't think Remoaners will be changing their minds. We expect the EU to play hardball because thats what they have always claimed, continue to claim, and would be suicidal not to follow through on. Giving the UK a good deal = the end of the EU. It's in their interest for the UK to be seen to do badly in comparison to the EU.

The most likely target of blame will be the Tories, which is just as it should be as there was nothing on the "Do you want to leave the EU" referendum form about leaving the single market - indeed many of the Leavers on TV insisted it wasnt about leaving the Single Market at all during the campaign. Certainly enough to grab a few percentage of voters to think Leave wouldnt be that catastrophic....
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Doctor Blind
post Jan 10 2017, 10:33 PM
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Who predicted that Martin McGuinness would take the moral high ground by resigning as Deputy First Minister in protest over the Renewable Heat Incentive scandal, and thus force a snap general election in Northern Ireland (and likely the exact same result and ultimately direct rule from Westminster)?
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Brett-Butler
post Jan 10 2017, 10:41 PM
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QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Jan 10 2017, 11:33 PM) *
Who predicted that Martin McGuinness would take the moral high ground by resigning as Deputy First Minister in protest over the Renewable Heat Incentive scandal, and thus force a snap general election in Northern Ireland (and likely the exact same result and ultimately direct rule from Westminster)?


Well, I did predict that Arlene would resign as First Minister, and because of the way the Assembly works in terms of the Office of the First Minister being a joint post, she has done so, albeit not of her own volition.

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Doctor Blind
post Jan 10 2017, 10:49 PM
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I look forward to your strong Battenberg platform sir. *.*
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Brett-Butler
post Jan 10 2017, 11:04 PM
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Funnily enough someone has already offered to be my public relations manager if I did run as an MLA in the snap election for the Assembly which is likely to be held in March. As much as I'd love to, due to current circumstances I doubt I'd be in any fit position to run for the position. That and there'd be a lot of digging around my past and into my beliefs that I don't think I'd be ready for at this moment in time (some of the things I've said on this board for a start would probably derail it before it even got off the ground!). However, if the rest of my prediction comes to pass, and there's a by-election for the MP of Belfast North around July time, well that would be a different kettle of fish altogether.
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Qassändra
post Feb 22 2017, 05:48 PM
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QUOTE(Qassändra @ Dec 30 2016, 11:55 PM) *
particularly after the Conservatives gain Copeland in February.

Second incorrect prediction likely tomorrow!
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MoistSummerFruit
post Feb 23 2017, 09:46 AM
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I sense a disturbance in the water.

LePenn is coming :/
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Soy Adrián
post Feb 23 2017, 11:30 AM
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QUOTE(Qassändra @ Feb 22 2017, 05:48 PM) *
Second incorrect prediction likely tomorrow!

You reckon? I think they'll take it by about 500. Sellafield is more salient than the hospital.
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