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> How long will Ed Sheeran stay at #1, with Shape of You
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How long will Ed Sheeran stay at #1 with Shape of You
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Mart!n
post Jan 13 2017, 10:16 PM
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Well... I was just thinking with his opening sales of 226,808, could be looking at 9-10 weeks, its so difficult to tell as there is hardly new material out, I know Major Lazer has a new single to drop soon, but I don't think it will get there. No point in adding 2 weeks, I just broke it down a bit.

The Album has been given a release date of March 3rd (Source: OCC)
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Nick F1
post Jan 13 2017, 10:19 PM
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10wks
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danG
post Jan 13 2017, 10:27 PM
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8 weeks, and Ed will knock himself off #1 with whatever album track gets instantly popular.
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Вuzzjack
post Jan 14 2017, 12:29 AM
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I think Castle On The Hill may knock.Shape Of You off in two weeksor so, depending on COTH's AirPlay.
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sammy01
post Jan 14 2017, 03:38 AM
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All year.
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cqmerqn
post Jan 14 2017, 10:05 AM
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I put 4 weeks although it could be a lot more without decent competition.
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btljs
post Jan 14 2017, 10:18 AM
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To break it down:

Streaming: Average number one recently has about 4.5 to 5 million. The half life of One Dance (from peak of ~9M to ~4.5M) was about 10 weeks. If Shape of You decays at the same rate it'll be hitting 6.5M in about the same time, which now equates to 45K in chart money.

Sales: Here I think Hello is the closest comparison - it decayed to 20% over 5 weeks. That would be about 25K.

Combined sales: Using the above Shape of You would have ~50K after 10 weeks. That is on the cusp - the lowest number one combined sales recently was 59K but 70-80 is more usual.

A lot might depend on whether the album release gives the song a boost - personally I don't think it will be significant. More interesting, perhaps is how long Ed can monopolise the number one (as Bieber did) with tracks from the album. Could he get to Easter? Seems possible.
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Sevn Bru
post Jan 15 2017, 11:43 AM
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'Shape Of You' sounds like it was almost created with the intention of being a 10+ week number one (which could easily happen, until something else huge comes along)
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SKOB
post Jan 15 2017, 11:54 AM
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Is this about Shape of You or Ed Sheeran as an artist? He'll replace himself at #1 with next song he'll release

So I say 5 weeks for SOY


This post has been edited by SKOB: Jan 15 2017, 11:55 AM
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-SCOTT-
post Jan 15 2017, 01:00 PM
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Until April at least
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dennispennis123
post Jan 15 2017, 01:05 PM
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Agree with others saying Ed will replace himself at number one.

Shape Of You will probably be #1 until around the Brits, then he could perform a new track will will go to #1, then the album will be released about 2 weeks later and the chart will be an Ed Sheeran massacre.
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King Rollo
post Jan 15 2017, 02:34 PM
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He said on Radio 1 that he expected Castle to overtake Shape after a few weeks as it's more of a grower so I voted for 3 weeks.

This post has been edited by King Rollo: Jan 15 2017, 02:35 PM
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Suedehead2
post Jan 15 2017, 04:19 PM
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The high number of real sales could limit his time at the top. After all, those people aren't going to buy the song(s) again and they won't contribute any streams. Unless, of course, he releases one or both songs on CD with b-sides that will only ever be available on that CD!
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LustForLife
post Jan 15 2017, 04:48 PM
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I think he'll probably perform 'Castle...' at the Brits, which will push it ahead then. Until then we've probably got 'Shape of You' as #1.
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Red.
post Jan 15 2017, 05:19 PM
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10 weeks for me. Either consisting of just Shape of You or both of them
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ankietarrr
post Jan 16 2017, 02:47 AM
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What is Sam Smith doing right now?
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Riser
post Jan 16 2017, 03:29 AM
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QUOTE(burbe @ Jan 15 2017, 11:48 AM) *
I think he'll probably perform 'Castle...' at the Brits, which will push it ahead then. Until then we've probably got 'Shape of You' as #1.
Good point, that seems likely to me too. So 6-7 weeks for 'Shape Of You', the Brits are on a Wednesday so the Brits effect may be split between two chart weeks.
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Houdini
post Jan 17 2017, 07:00 PM
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QUOTE(ankietarrr @ Jan 16 2017, 02:47 AM) *
What is Sam Smith doing right now?

He's probably at home having his dinner.
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mdh
post Jan 17 2017, 07:02 PM
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QUOTE(Houdini @ Jan 17 2017, 07:00 PM) *
He's probably at home having his dinner.

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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