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> NI Assembly Elections 2017
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Brett-Butler
post Mar 3 2017, 04:51 PM
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Sorry it took me until the counting to get this thread up and running, but better late than never.

Yesterday, Northern Ireland went to the polls to vote in the Assembly after Stormont collapsed after the RHI scandal. At the moment counting is under way to elect the 90 representatives from across the province. This is down from the 108 elected last year after a motion was passed to cut the members in the Assembly, so no matter what happens the major parties across the board are expected to lose seats.

So far, it looks as if the DUP & Sinn Fein will remain the largest parties in the Assembly, although with less seats for the reasons stated above. Sinn Fein's vote appears to have surged, and the Alliance Party don't seem to have done too badly. A few smaller parties could lose seats, with Angry Eamonn of People Before Profit likely to lose his seat in Foyle, and the Greens could lose one of their 2 seats in South Belfast.
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HissingSparkler
post Mar 3 2017, 05:24 PM
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Same two parties have won for the last 15 years or so, NI politics is so dull. The poor SDLP and UUP haven't done too well, especially the UUP considering it should have done better by exploiting the RHI scandal. At least Alliance have done well.

Didn't know People Before Profit ever had a seat.
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Harve
post Mar 3 2017, 05:40 PM
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Agreed, such a dull election and a repeat of the last 15-20 years, it would seem.

That peace agreement made things a whole lot less spicy.
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Sceryl_Streep
post Mar 3 2017, 05:46 PM
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Quite disappointed at the seeming collapse of the UUP, which in turn seems to have allowed the DUP to hold up better than they might otherwise have done. A surge in votes for Alliance is great but largely meaningless for now, so we're pretty much were we were before. Joy.
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Brett-Butler
post Mar 3 2017, 05:58 PM
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QUOTE(The Wise Sultan @ Mar 3 2017, 06:24 PM) *
Same two parties have won for the last 15 years or so, NI politics is so dull. The poor SDLP and UUP haven't done too well, especially the UUP considering it should have done better by exploiting the RHI scandal. At least Alliance have done well.

Didn't know People Before Profit ever had a seat.


Socialist hamster Gerry Carroll has the other seat in West Belfast, which he's just managed to hold. Really enjoyed watching him squirm as he tried to talk his way out of why his party was in favour of Brexit (two of the constituencies with the greatest votes for "Remain" in NI were Foyle & West Belfast, coincidentally the two constituencies PBP have seats in).
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Brett-Butler
post Mar 3 2017, 06:04 PM
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QUOTE(Qween @ Mar 3 2017, 06:46 PM) *
Quite disappointed at the seeming collapse of the UUP, which in turn seems to have allowed the DUP to hold up better than they might otherwise have done. A surge in votes for Alliance is great but largely meaningless for now, so we're pretty much were we were before. Joy.


UUP's vote share of 1st preference votes has actually increased this year compared to 2016, but it looks like they're one of the big losers from the contraction of the Assembly.

A few big names have already fallen, perhaps the highest profile scalp was the SDLP's Alex Atwood, who's been in the Assembly since 1998 and is well respected across all parties. Danny Kennedy of the UUP too was a surprise as well.
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HissingSparkler
post Mar 3 2017, 06:08 PM
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QUOTE(Qween @ Mar 3 2017, 05:46 PM) *
Quite disappointed at the seeming collapse of the UUP, which in turn seems to have allowed the DUP to hold up better than they might otherwise have done. A surge in votes for Alliance is great but largely meaningless for now, so we're pretty much were we were before. Joy.


Together with collapse of the SDLP vote and the surge in Alliance's vote it shows voters who oppose the big two seem to be increasingly turning to Alliance rather than the UUP or SDLP.
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Oricon
post Mar 3 2017, 07:00 PM
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So some results are in, and if someone would have the patience can they explain to me how the system works? Sinn Fein have 16 seats so far, with DUP coming in second with 10. However the DUP have just slightly more votes than the former but according to someone Sinn Fein can only have a maximum of 29 seats with DUP having a minimum of 29 at the rate it's going?

I'm totally confused (this will be my first year actually having some interest in politics in general laugh.gif )
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Sceryl_Streep
post Mar 3 2017, 07:28 PM
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QUOTE(The Wise Sultan @ Mar 3 2017, 06:08 PM) *
Together with collapse of the SDLP vote and the surge in Alliance's vote it shows voters who oppose the big two seem to be increasingly turning to Alliance rather than the UUP or SDLP.


Alliance have always had my first preference, but living in Mid Ulster that doesn't amount to a thing so I always put UUP second (SDLP 3rd). Really I just dislike my only unionist representation being the bloody DUP. Basically any party that, even on the surface, makes compromise and working together seem like something achievable and desirable.
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Brett-Butler
post Mar 3 2017, 07:39 PM
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QUOTE(Oricon @ Mar 3 2017, 08:00 PM) *
So some results are in, and if someone would have the patience can they explain to me how the system works? Sinn Fein have 16 seats so far, with DUP coming in second with 10. However the DUP have just slightly more votes than the former but according to someone Sinn Fein can only have a maximum of 29 seats with DUP having a minimum of 29 at the rate it's going?

I'm totally confused (this will be my first year actually having some interest in politics in general laugh.gif )


I'll try to explain it as simply as possible.

There are 18 constituencies in Northern Ireland, and each one elects 5 MLAS.

When voting for each candidate, voters order their favourites by preferences, eg if you wanted the Silly Party to get your 1st preference, you put a "1" beside their name, if you want to give the Sensible Party your 2nd preference, you give them a "2", and so on or so forth. You don't need to do this beyond your first preference, but it is usual to do so later on.

So once all the 1st pref votes are counted, a quota is established, and any candidate that exceeds that quota is duly elected. Any additional votes beyond the quota will get redistributed to the other parties based on who people had down as their 2nd preferences.

If it becomes clear that the candidates on the least amount of votes cannot get above the quota even with vote transfers, then they are eliminated and their votes are redistributed to the 2nd/3rd preference votes.

This process repeats until all 5 candidates are elected in each constituency, so based on this, you could end up getting the 5th most 1st preference votes and still not get a seat if the 2nd preferences don't go your way.

Yay for Proportional Representation. It makes the whole process much more fun.
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Oricon
post Mar 3 2017, 07:40 PM
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So by that logic, does it mean it's still all to be played for or will DUP remain as the largest party still?
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Sceryl_Streep
post Mar 3 2017, 08:50 PM
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The DUP are likely to be the largest party again, although only by 1/2 seats at this stage. Though a tie maybe wouldn't be a surprise either, with the DUP's miniscule first preference vote lead being the difference between who 'wins'.
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Oricon
post Mar 3 2017, 10:21 PM
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Yeah it seems like DUP are closing in now on Sinn Fein. Only 3 seats separating them now!
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HissingSparkler
post Mar 3 2017, 10:46 PM
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I wonder why Sinn Fein has surged and the SDLP hasn't done that well, I am guessing it is to do with Sinn Fein being seen as being a bigger voice against Brexit and for keeping an open border than the SDLP.
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Oricon
post Mar 3 2017, 11:28 PM
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11 seats left with Sinn Fein having 5 more than DUP. It's still all to play for!
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sm1ffj
post Mar 3 2017, 11:49 PM
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Would the result tonight make a United Ireland more closer....
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Oricon
post Mar 4 2017, 12:02 AM
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5 seats left and looking from the areas that's yet to elect the seats I predict it'll go 29 - DUP and 28 - Sinn Fein.

(or as John says it'll be a tie)
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Sceryl_Streep
post Mar 4 2017, 12:46 AM
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It's looking more likely to be 28 DUP, 27 Sinn Fein with the other Belfast South seat going Green and John Dallat picking up the final East Londonderry seat for the SDLP at this stage. Either way a severely chastened DUP is no bad thing.
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Qassändra
post Mar 4 2017, 12:53 AM
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GOOD GOD I am by no means a Sinn Fein fanboy but if after all this the DUP are still the biggest party I really do despair.

*lights a candle for the SDLP-UUP dream*
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Doctor Blind
post Mar 4 2017, 11:58 AM
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Have the DUP lost their petition of concern? *.*
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