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LexC♀
post Mar 13 2017, 07:44 PM
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Well Ryan, ask and you shall receive! We've got the full set of Semi 2 songs and the one song left in semi 1 we know is written by the same team who made LoveWave and Not Alone so we should assume it's something in the vein of those two songs.

[ re-upped from last year's thread ] In a year as competitive as this year is, simple factors like running order can make a big difference to a country's chances of qualifying/a good result/winning. So, the main purpose of this thread is A) If you were the producer of the show, what order would you put the songs in and B) Once the running order's been confirmed, who do we think are the winners/losers out of it. [/ re-upped from last year's thread ]

Semi-Final One

FIRST HALF
► Albania: Lindita - World
► Australia: Isaiah - Don't Come Easy
► Azerbaijan: Dihaj - Skeletons
► Belgium: Blanche - City Lights
► Finland: Norma John - Blackbird
► Georgia: Tamara Gachechiladze - Keep The Faith
► Montenegro: Slavko Kalezić - Space
► Portugal: Salvador Sobral - Amar Pelos Dois
► Sweden: Robin Bengtsson - I Can't Go On

SECOND HALF
► Armenia: Artsvik - Fly With Me
► Cyprus: Hovig - Gravity
► Czech Republic: Martina Bárta - My Turn
► Greece: Demy - This Is Love
► Iceland: Svala - Paper
► Latvia: Triana Park - Line
► Moldova: Sunstroke Project - Hey Mamma
► Poland: Kasia Moś - Flashlight
► Slovenia: Omar Naber - On My Way

Semi-Final Two

FIRST HALF
► Austria: Nathan Trent - Running On Air
► Denmark: Anja - Where I Am
► Hungary: Joci Pápai - Origo
► Ireland: Brendan Murray - Dying To Try
► Macedonia: Jana Burčeska - Dance Alone
► Malta: Claudia Faniello - Breathlessly
► Romania: Ilinca ft. Alex Florea - Yodel It!
► Russia: Julia Samoylova - Flame Is Burning
► Serbia: Tijana Bogićević - In Too Deep
► The Netherlands: OG3NE - Lights And Shadows

SECOND HALF
► Belarus: Naviband - Story Of My Life
► Bulgaria: Kristian Kostov - Beautiful Mess
► Croatia: Jacques Houdek - My Friend
► Estonia: Koit Toome and Laura - Verona
► Israel: IMRI - I Feel Alive
► Lithuania: Fusedmarc - Rain Of Revolution
► Norway: JOWST - Grab The Moment
► San Marino: Valentina Monetta & Jimmie Wilson - Spirit Of The Night
► Switzerland: Timebelle - Apollo

I suspect the challenge this year will mostly be about spacing out the songs that sound similar to each other, especially at the start of semi one. Interested to see how people would arrange them.
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♫ Boyan ♫
post Mar 13 2017, 09:13 PM
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Prediction running order

semi 1

1. Montenegro: Slavko Kalezić - Space
2. Albania: Lindita - World
3. Azerbaijan: Dihaj - Skeletons
4. Belgium: Blanche - City Lights
5. Portugal: Salvador Sobral - Amar Pelos Dois
6. Sweden: Robin Bengtsson - I Can't Go On
7. Finland: Norma John - Blackbird
8. Georgia: Tamara Gachechiladze - Keep The Faith
9. Australia: Isaiah - Don't Come Easy
10. Greece: Demy - This Is Love
11. Armenia: Artsvik - Fly With Me
12. Moldova: Sunstroke Project - Hey Mamma
13. Poland: Kasia Moś - Flashlight
14. Slovenia: Omar Naber - On My Way
15. Latvia: Triana Park - Line
16. Czech Republic: Martina Bárta - My Turn
17. Cyprus: Hovig - Gravity
18. Iceland: Svala - Paper

semi 2

1. Romania: Ilinca ft. Alex Florea - Yodel It!
2. Ireland: Brendan Murray - Dying To Try
3. Hungary: Joci Pápai - Origo
4. Serbia: Tijana Bogićević - In Too Deep
5. Russia: Julia Samoylova - Flame Is Burning
6. Austria: Nathan Trent - Running On Air
7. Malta: Claudia Faniello - Breathlessly
8. Macedonia: Jana Burčeska - Dance Alone
9. The Netherlands: OG3NE - Lights And Shadows
10. Denmark: Anja - Where I Am
11. Belarus: Naviband - Story Of My Life
12. Lithuania: Fusedmarc - Rain Of Revolution
13. Norway: JOWST - Grab The Moment
14. San Marino: Valentina Monetta & Jimmie Wilson - Spirit Of The Night
15. Estonia: Koit Toome and Laura - Verona
16. Bulgaria: Kristian Kostov - Beautiful Mess
17. Switzerland: Timebelle - Apollo
18. Croatia: Jacques Houdek - My Friend
19. Israel: IMRI - I Feel Alive
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Ryan.
post Mar 13 2017, 09:15 PM
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I'd go with something like this at the moment (not a prediction):

Semi-Final One

01 Albania: Lindita - World
02 Montenegro: Slavko Kalezić - Space
03 Finland: Norma John - Blackbird
04 Australia: Isaiah - Don't Come Easy
05 Azerbaijan: Dihaj - Skeletons
06 Portugal: Salvador Sobral - Amar Pelos Dois
07 Sweden: Robin Bengtsson - I Can't Go On
08 Georgia: Tamara Gachechiladze - Keep The Faith
09 Belgium: Blanche - City Lights
10 Cyprus: Hovig - Gravity
11 Armenia: Artsvik - Fly With Me
12 Slovenia: Omar Naber - On My Way
13 Latvia: Triana Park - Line
14 Czech Republic: Martina Bárta - My Turn
15 Iceland: Svala - Paper
16 Moldova: Sunstroke Project - Hey Mamma
17 Poland: Kasia Moś - Flashlight
18 Greece: Demy - This Is Love

Semi-Final Two

01 Romania: Ilinca ft. Alex Florea - Yodel It!
02 Malta: Claudia Faniello - Breathlessly
03 Hungary: Joci Pápai - Origo
04 Russia: Julia Samoylova - Flame Is Burning
05 Serbia: Tijana Bogićević - In Too Deep
06 Ireland: Brendan Murray - Dying To Try
07 The Netherlands: OG3NE - Lights And Shadows
08 Austria: Nathan Trent - Running On Air
09 F.Y.R. Macedonia: Jana Burčeska - Dance Alone
10 Denmark: Anja - Where I Am
11 Israel: IMRI - I Feel Alive
12 Switzerland: Timebelle - Apollo
13 Lithuania: Fusedmarc - Rain Of Revolution
14 Croatia: Jacques Houdek - My Friend
15 San Marino: Valentina Monetta & Jimmie Wilson - Spirit Of The Night
16 Norway: JOWST - Grab The Moment
17 Estonia: Koit Toome and Laura - Verona
18 Bulgaria: Kristian Kostov - Beautiful Mess
19 Belarus: Naviband - Story Of My Life
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TS0301
post Mar 14 2017, 05:13 PM
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Semi-Final One

01 - Montenegro
02 - Georgia
03 - Finland
04 - Albania
05 - Sweden
06 - Portugal
07 - Azerbaijan
08 - Belgium
09 - Australia

10 - Moldova
11 - Armenia
12 - Greece
13 - Czech Republic
14 - Latvia
15 - Slovenia
16 - Cyprus
17 - Poland
18 - Iceland


Semi-Final Two

01 - Romania
02 - Ireland
03 - Russia
04 - Serbia
05 - Austria
06 - Malta
07 - Denmark
08 - Hungary
09 - The Netherlands
10 - FYR Macedonia

11 - Norway
12 - Croatia
13 - Lithuania
14 - Bulgaria
15 - Estonia
16 - Switzerland
17 - Israel
18 - San Marino
19 - Belarus
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David
post Mar 14 2017, 08:09 PM
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Russia are gonna get the death slot number two in the second semi final. Guarantee it!
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Umi
post Mar 15 2017, 03:05 AM
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When do the commercial breaks typically happen in the semis?
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LexC♀
post Mar 16 2017, 04:03 PM
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Just going to do Semi 2 for now

01 Macedonia
02 Malta
03 Hungary
04 Russia
05 Serbia
06 Netherlands
07 Romania
08 Ireland
09 Austria
10 Denmark
11 Norway
12 Bulgaria
13 Lithuania
14 Croatia
15 San Marino
16 Belarus
17 Estonia
18 Switzerland
19 Israel

-Macedonia is the most obvious 'get the party started' opening number so that goes in slot one
-Malta in the death slot because one of the basics has to go in there and if you gave that to Russia then there'd probably be a big hullabalooh about that. Russia can then get the still reasonably bad slot of fourth while Hungary gets to be a spacer between the two ballads.
-Alternating tempos/styles where possible. Austria and Denmark can go at the end because they're both mid-ish tempos to tide the energy over until the first half and there's more uptempos to draw from again.
-Estonia and Israel are the two 'big' songs in the second half so they can go last and third to last (as is the standard rule).
-Something slow but theoretically not as competitive can go in between them so I figured the best song for that in this half is Switzerland.
-Again, alternate as much as possible back up to the middle. There aren't as many slow ones in this half so San Marino/Belarus works as a contrast of hot mess disco with folk pop.
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LexC♀
post Mar 16 2017, 04:04 PM
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QUOTE(Umi @ Mar 15 2017, 03:05 AM) *
When do the commercial breaks typically happen in the semis?


It varies by year/how long the semis are that year but generally there's one after song 5/6 and song 12/13 I think.
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AdamAloud
post Mar 18 2017, 05:52 PM
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Assuming the breaks are after songs 5 and 13, I've gone for:

Semi 1
01. Azerbaijan // Dihaj - Skeletons
02. Portugal // Salvador Sobral - Amor pelos dois
03. Montenegro // Slavko Kalezic - Space
04. Finland // Norma John - Blackbird
05. Georgia // Tamara Gachechiladze - Keep The Faith
(BREAK)
06. Australia // Isaiah - Don't Come Easy
07. Sweden // Robin Bengtsson - I Can't Go On
08. Albania // Lindita - World
09. Belgium // Blanche - City Lights
10. Greece // Demy - This Is Love
11. Slovenia // Omar Naber - On My Way
12. Latvia // Triana Park - Line
13. Poland // Kasia Mos - Flashlight
(BREAK)
14. Cyprus // Hovig - Gravity
15. Iceland // Svala - Paper
16. Czech Republic // Martina Barta - My Turn
17. Armenia // Artsvik - Fly With Me
18. Moldova // SunStroke Project - Hey Mamma

Semi 2
01. Serbia // Tijana Bogicevic - In Too Deep
02. Malta // Claudia Faniello - Breathlessly
03. Hungary // Joci Papai - Origo
04. Russia // Julia Samoylova - Flame Is Burning
05. Romania // Ilinca ft. Alex Florea - Yodel It!
(BREAK)
06. The Netherlands // OG3NE - Lights & Shadows
07. Ireland // Brendan Murray - Dying To Try
08. Macedonia // Jana Burceska - Dance Alone
09. Austria // Nathan Trent - Running On Air
10. Denmark // Anja - Where I Am
11. San Marino // Valentina Monetta & Jimmie Wilson - Spirit Of The Night
12. Croatia // Jacques Houdek - My Friend
13. Israel // IMRI - I Feel Alive
(BREAK)
14. Estonia // Koit Toome & Laura - Verona
15. Bulgaria // Kristian Kostov - Beautiful Mess
16. Lithuania // Fusedmarc - Rain Of Revolution
17. Switzerland // Timebelle - Apollo
18. Norway // JOWST - Grab The Moment
19. Belarus // NaviBand - Story Of My Life
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LexC♀
post Mar 18 2017, 05:54 PM
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And now that all of the songs are out, Semi 1:

01 Albania
02 Finland
03 Azerbaijan
04 Portugal
05 Montenegro
06 Australia
07 Sweden
08 Georgia
09 Belgium
10 Slovenia
11 Cyprus
12 Czech Republic
13 Moldova
14 Poland
15 Armenia
16 Latvia
17 Iceland
18 Greece

-Now, the temptation would probably be to have either Sweden or Montenegro open but they need to be saved for later in the show to break up runs of ballads. So therefore, the slower song that feels the 'biggest' out of them all is Albania so they'll do as an opener. Azerbaijan could potentially open too but having Albania slot in between the two really lowkey songs in 2nd and 4th would be a bit too much
-Finland/Portugal pretty much interchangable in 2nd and 4th so I ended up giving Finland the death slot over Portugal because I suppose Portugal is slightly fancied by the bookies so give them the later one
-Montenegro injects a shot of energy into the proceedings in 5th and then alternating is relatively easy after that.
-The two biggest uptempos in the 2nd half are Greece and Latvia so they can have last and third last. Greece is likely going to have big and impressive staging so they can close the show out of those two.
-Iceland slots pretty well in-between those two with something slower but still impressive and visually interesting.
-Again, alternate as best possible back up to the middle. Slovenia can go after the most likely Semi winner because they're coming last anyway.
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Faye Dunaway
post Mar 19 2017, 11:32 PM
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This is what I'd do

1 Montenegro: Slavko Kalezić - Space
2 Georgia: Tamara Gachechiladze - Keep The Faith
3 Albania: Lindita - World
4 Azerbaijan: Dihaj - Skeletons
5 Portugal: Salvador Sobral - Amar Pelos Dois
6 Sweden: Robin Bengtsson - I Can't Go On
7 Finland: Norma John - Blackbird
8 Australia: Isaiah - Don't Come Easy
9 Belgium: Blanche - City Lights
10 Greece: Demy - This Is Love
11 Slovenia: Omar Naber - On My Way
12 Latvia: Triana Park - Line
13 Czech Republic: Martina Bárta - My Turn
14 Cyprus: Hovig - Gravity
15 Armenia: Artsvik - Fly With Me
16 Iceland: Svala - Paper
17 Poland: Kasia Moś - Flashlight
18 Moldova: Sunstroke Project - Hey Mamma

1 Romania: Ilinca ft. Alex Florea - Yodel It!
2 Ireland: Brendan Murray - Dying To Try
3 Russia: Julia Samoylova - Flame Is Burning
4 Austria: Nathan Trent - Running On Air
5 Serbia: Tijana Bogićević - In Too Deep
6 Malta: Claudia Faniello - Breathlessly
7 Hungary: Joci Pápai - Origo
8 Denmark: Anja - Where I Am
9 Macedonia: Jana Burčeska - Dance Alone
10 The Netherlands: OG3NE - Lights And Shadows
11 Norway: JOWST - Grab The Moment
12 Lithuania: Fusedmarc - Rain Of Revolution
13 Croatia: Jacques Houdek - My Friend
14 Estonia: Koit Toome and Laura - Verona
15 Switzerland: Timebelle - Apollo
16 San Marino: Valentina Monetta & Jimmie Wilson - Spirit Of The Night
17 Bulgaria: Kristian Kostov - Beautiful Mess
18 Belarus: Naviband - Story Of My Life
19 Israel: IMRI - I Feel Alive

I've tried to alternate tempo and/or type of act where possible and have a fun opening and closing. Tried to give decent slots to songs with good odds (Bulgaria, Belgium, Sweden..Portugal to an extent but the first half of semi 1 already has the Belgians, the Swedish and Australia who get a late slot due to the time difference). I personally think Georgia is awful so they get the death slot in semi 1 and I like Ireland but it was them or Malta to get it in semi 2, and I thought Malta would clash more with Russia who I wanted to put in third.
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gooddelta
post Mar 31 2017, 09:50 AM
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It's out:

Semi 1

1. Sweden
2. Georgia
3. Australia
4. Albania
5. Belgium
6. Montenegro
7. Finland
8. Azerbaijan
9. Portugal
10. Greece
11. Poland
12. Moldova
13. Iceland
14. Czech Republic
15. Cyprus
16. Armenia
17. Slovenia
18. Latvia

Semi 2

1. Serbia
2. Austria
3. Russia
4. FYR Macedonia
5. Malta
6. Romania
7. The Netherlands
8. Hungary
9. Denmark
10. Ireland
11. San Marino
12. Croatia
13. Norway
14. Switzerland
15. Belarus
16. Bulgaria
17. Lithuania
18. Estonia
19. Israel

Mission bury Australia and Russia and push Portugal and Denmark got the green light!

Sweden opening, as Robin did in his Melodifestivalen heat, that will be a fantastic way to get open with that staging.

Nice strong finish in semi 2...Lithuania aside...but that will help them through (they always get through!)
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Cameron
post Mar 31 2017, 10:19 AM
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oh my god at that 10-13 section in semi 2 laugh.gif

Also I think Montenegro might qualify with that running order?
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Iz~
post Mar 31 2017, 10:21 AM
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Croatia will stand out enormously, yes!

Looks a very good draw for Portugal, it will stand in contrast to those kind of unremarkable songs around it. Definitely thinking Australia are in trouble now. And yes, I think all of that last 5 in semi 2 are qualifying quite safely.
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Faye Dunaway
post Mar 31 2017, 10:25 AM
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QUOTE(Cameron @ Mar 31 2017, 11:19 AM) *
Also I think Montenegro might qualify with that running order?


I had this thought / hope - it's going to stand out SO much (though it probably would anyway no matter where it was put! laugh.gif)

Poor Austria, I love that song. What have Ireland done to get given the latest possible draw they could get

I was thinking yesterday how suitable Sweden would be as an opener - "I can't go on" will be my mums words at the prospect of having to sit through 60-ish more performances across the three shows tongue.gif
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Umi
post Mar 31 2017, 10:28 AM
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Damn, there goes any chance of Estonia failing and I'm worried about Poland now.
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LexC♀
post Mar 31 2017, 11:01 AM
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I mean, Semi draws can't kill you off as much as the final draws can just because of the length of the show comparatively but nevertheless, here be my hot takes!

I think the main song that's sunk is probably Austria who I had down as about 9th/10th before I saw this draw. Not convinced that Lithuania are through now either, Bulgaria/Belarus/Estonia/Israel are going to completely crowd it out in that section.

Albania and Georgia are also more or less dead at this point, one of them could have managed it with a better draw/taking all the votes away from the other one but Australia being in between them is taking pretty much all of their votes away.

Belgium have a great draw after that run of ballads/before the ad break potentially, as does Montenegro. Latvia getting the pimp slot makes me more confident about their chances now too.

Russia are buried if they turn up but conveniently the ordering still works if you take them out, well played EBU!

QUOTE(J▲hq @ Mar 31 2017, 11:25 AM) *
What have Ireland done to get given the latest possible draw they could get


I mean, the alternative theory about that is that it's worst to be right in the middle of the show after a run of slow songs before an uptempo comes on, so you could read it as a bad draw for Portugal/Ireland (I'd argue Greece coming right after them is a dreadful draw for the Portuguese, especially with two slow/mid tempos coming before it) who both match that description.
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AdamAloud
post Mar 31 2017, 12:12 PM
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Nothing to shocking with that running order, Slovenia definitely doesn't deserve such a good slot though. I'm a little more confident with Finland going through now as well.

Recaps using the running order:



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post Mar 31 2017, 01:11 PM
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Semi 1 – I would wholeheartedly agree with Sweden being an excellent opener.

I had Semi 1 being a bit tougher to guess than Semi 2 this year, again like last year. We knew that Dihaj was gonna be interesting, we knew that Demy has the team, Iceland is out for redemption and Czech Republic would want to prove that their qualification last year was not a fluke. Is it not the case that they’ll have the ad-break in the middle between 9th and 10th slots? Would you put a slower, older-style song there like Portugal rather than close the half with something more of a party number? I go the safe route if I were NTU and schedule it with a strong opener, and intersperse the upbeat/quirky songs running say 1st, 5th, 9th, 10th, 14th, 18th just to keep the flow going? Belgium’s position is going to be very interesting given that this is probably the quirkiest song of the Semi, contemporary sounding, interesting vocal and thematically quite interesting – this either grows into a big club hit or becomes monotonous as hell but hats off to them for going for it, they certainly are prepared to switch it up and given what they did with ‘What’s the Pressure?’ last year, they know how to stage the hell out of a song.

Also, Finland, Albania and Portugal are all ballads – I think it imperative given that they be kept away from the UK which is another torch song as it’s unfair given that we’re through anyway. I confess, I like jazz music and was raised on the Great American Songbook so I quite like the old school, 1950s vibe of Portugal, and was intrigued by Martina Bárta’s participation. Portugal could actually benefit from an odd running order given that it’s so low-key and throwback-y that it that there is literally nothing that sounds like it anywhere.

As a rule, getting the transitions right is going to be the hardest part, particularly given that the occasional odd change of mood or tempo is unavoidable, but you want to try very hard to make sure that – particularly if its an AQ country who don’t have to worry about qualification but have every right to get a fair go at showing their song off properly given that we (and the other Big Five) now really got to justify our AQ status. I’m totally for Lucie going out and treating it like she’s got to qualify and win everybody over at Semi stage – it’s the only way we’re going to prove we have any business being in the Final.

Semi 2 – Ireland will be made or broken with their place in the run. The lack of UK in their Semi makes them vulnerable and he’s competing with Bulgaria for the same voters.

Given the Russia situation, which given their history in ESC since Semis came in and their natural wish to send something special to Ukraine – an absent Russia blows this Semi wide-open. Eastern European countries might find it harder without their votes and Switzerland is probably breathing a sigh of relief.

San Marino could go second because it’s a throw-back without the charm of Portugal and barring a miracle a non-qualifier as well as hurt by the absence of Italy from their Semi. Shame ‘cos I’m still pissed at ‘Vola’ not qualifying in 2013. NTU might recognise that they are the underdogs and Valentina has a lot of love from fans and help her out a bit, but even with extraordinary staging, God bless them for trying though….

Cyprus, Israel and even Moldova have somewhat similar songs, male, EDM influenced and Estonia is a bit like the duet version, so they’ll have to be kept apart. The Netherlands might be a big winner in this Semi – good song and they sing so well. Given that there are a lot less ballads in this Semi so it’s going to require very different scheduling, France, Ukraine’s pop rock nonsense, Ireland’s pop ballad, the Netherlands, Bulgaria and even the cheese-tastic silliness that is Romania are going to be used to break-up the dancier tracks.

And people Epic Sax Guy and Valentina Monetta and ESG in one Semi – I can scarcely wait!
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Ryan.
post Mar 31 2017, 08:27 PM
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I think Macedonia are struggling likewise Serbia, I'll be surprised to see more than one of them get through I think. I was warming up to Austria's chances as his stage presence is enormous but perhaps not now with that draw.

I think Poland could definitely fail now from 11th, Latvia now have a fighting chance. I was warming up to Georgia's chances too after the revamp but like Austria, those chances could've been ruined.

Aside from that I don't think anyone can feel hard done by, Macedonia should probably feel harshest done by.
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