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What will you be voting in #IndyRef2?
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Andrew.
post Mar 14 2017, 09:38 PM
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Now we know it's definitely coming I thought another thread would be best!

I see Ruth Davidson and the likes are already going on about there being 'no mandate' for a second referendum. What Nicola Sturgeon confirmed yesterday was in the SNP's manifesto which they got elected on, so surely there's an undeniable mandate?
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Suedehead2
post Mar 14 2017, 09:44 PM
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The SNP have far more of a mandate for a second referendum than the UK government has for taking us out of the single market.
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danG
post Mar 14 2017, 09:45 PM
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Does yes mean staying in the UK or leaving?

Plus, I don't live in Scotland but have to vote in both polls.
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Brett-Butler
post Mar 14 2017, 10:03 PM
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If Theresa May is clever, what she should do is to consent to another Indy Ref, on the condition that the Scottish Assembly dissolves and that the newly incoming Scottish Parliament votes in favour of having one. The SNP is not as popular as it once was, and one suspects that if another election took place, the SNP would lose even more ground, and would struggle to get to the 50% required, even with the support of minor parties.

But then again, one is not sure if Theresa May is clever.
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Brett-Butler
post Mar 14 2017, 10:04 PM
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Oh, and in relation to the main question, not really fussed each way. As long as Frisky frozen yogurt shop in Edinburgh stays open, that's all I care about.
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Suedehead2
post Mar 14 2017, 10:26 PM
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QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Mar 14 2017, 10:03 PM) *
If Theresa May is clever, what she should do is to consent to another Indy Ref, on the condition that the Scottish Assembly dissolves and that the newly incoming Scottish Parliament votes in favour of having one. The SNP is not as popular as it once was, and one suspects that if another election took place, the SNP would lose even more ground, and would struggle to get to the 50% required, even with the support of minor parties.

But then again, one is not sure if Theresa May is clever.

Why should there be another election? The SNP manifesto specifically stated that they would consider holding another referendum if the UK voted to leave the EU. Therefore, they have a mandate to call another referendum. OTOH, the government has no mandate to leave the single market. The Tory manifesto included a commitment to remain in the single market.
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Brett-Butler
post Mar 14 2017, 10:35 PM
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QUOTE(Suedehead2 @ Mar 14 2017, 11:26 PM) *
Why should there be another election? The SNP manifesto specifically stated that they would consider holding another referendum if the UK voted to leave the EU. Therefore, they have a mandate to call another referendum. OTOH, the government has no mandate to leave the single market. The Tory manifesto included a commitment to remain in the single market.


Indeed. I suspect that if Theresa May was to ask the SNP to hold another election before consenting to IndyRef2, then Nicola Sturgeon would make that exact point, and hubris could lead her to demand that she's only do that if Theresa May does the same and calls an early Westminster election. And given the state that the opposition are in at Westminster, it would be 2-0 to Theresa.

Boy, I've been watching too many political intrigue dramas recently.
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LexC♀
post Mar 14 2017, 10:46 PM
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I don't live in Scotland but very much on the pro-Independence train this time around. Given the choice between de-facto one party state Brexitland and essentially being mini Denmark, I know which one I'd choose if I were Scottish!

*double checks "rooms to rent Glasgow"*
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Rooney
post Mar 15 2017, 12:23 AM
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Agreed this is like a real life House of Cards. While the SNP have right to call another referendum, Teresa May has to really back it. Nobody wants to break the Union up, but again while the EU will be sympathetic to Scotland's cause, you also need 27 countries also to be of the same school of thought. The problem is, if this does happen, yet again the government will be able to bury bad news through the referendum. Obviously the Government will get involved a lot more this time around to preserve the Union too.

Selfishly I think we're better off together. I have family in Scotland that are pro-UK, but obviously love the EU. Sad times.
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Silas
post Mar 15 2017, 07:18 AM
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QUOTE(Brett-Butler @ Mar 14 2017, 10:03 PM) *
If Theresa May is clever, what she should do is to consent to another Indy Ref, on the condition that the Scottish Assembly dissolves and that the newly incoming Scottish Parliament votes in favour of having one. The SNP is not as popular as it once was, and one suspects that if another election took place, the SNP would lose even more ground, and would struggle to get to the 50% required, even with the support of minor parties.

But then again, one is not sure if Theresa May is clever.

Opinion polling disagrees with you. SNP support is consistently up in the high 40s and Sturgeon has very high personal approval ratings.

Polls may have been shite recently in England but they were accurate in Scotland for the 2015, 2016 elections and EU Ref
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Silas
post Mar 15 2017, 07:19 AM
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QUOTE(danG @ Mar 14 2017, 09:45 PM) *
Does yes mean staying in the UK or leaving?

Plus, I don't live in Scotland but have to vote in both polls.

Yes = Leaving.
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Qassändra
post Mar 15 2017, 11:05 AM
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QUOTE(Silas @ Mar 15 2017, 07:18 AM) *
Opinion polling disagrees with you. SNP support is consistently up in the high 40s and Sturgeon has very high personal approval ratings.

Yes, but her main issue is that that SNP support and the high personal approval ratings largely overlap. The question of who has more appeal to the undecideds out of Nicola and Ruth is unresolved.

----
Splash in the Daily Telegraph this morning that Sturgeon is planning to go for EFTA membership instead of EU membership for an independent Scotland. It's...a line.
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Silas
post Mar 15 2017, 01:47 PM
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EFTA is quicker to obtain comes with no euro obligations and keeps us control over fishing. That would appease the fishing communities and keeps the benefits of EU membership like free movement while giving us flexibility for a custom deal with rUK. Solves the conundrum that there's a massive disparity in EU and single market support. Scottish attitude survey says we're still sceptical of EU


Smart move. Would take the arrows from the brexiting hypocrite unionist bows over EU membership taking years. Can always apply after Indy and EFTA membership
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Harve
post Mar 15 2017, 02:19 PM
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Interesting headline.
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Brett-Butler
post Mar 15 2017, 04:14 PM
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Oh my giddy aunt. And that's in the Premium section?
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popchartfreak
post Mar 15 2017, 04:21 PM
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If EFTA is negotiable for Scotland she can jolly well negotiate it for the rest of the UK too, there was nothing in the Referendum about leaving the Single Market (nor was that said to be what it was about by the lying Leavers) she has just chosen to interpret it that way.

It will be very hard to deny the same deal to Northern Ireland given the border difficulties, and it's then one small step to doing it for the whole country cos England & Wales will be well pissed off if they get a worse deal and EU citizens can get in across the Scottish and borders anyway.

Keep the pressure on, Nicola, you're doing a good job with the Wicked Witch trying to keep power over shorter people to maintain her Witchdom. Even after appointing the Scarecrow, The Tinman and the Lion into the Brexit cabinet (if only they had a brain, a heart and some bravery)...
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Silas
post Mar 15 2017, 04:30 PM
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QUOTE(Harve @ Mar 15 2017, 02:19 PM) *

f***ing Jesus. What a c**t
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Doctor Blind
post Mar 21 2017, 10:29 PM
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Given the original bid for independence in 2014 was predicated on the price of crude oil remaining at $100 a barrel (being well over $130 a barrel at the time of their famous white paper), and it is now around half that, what is the likelihood that the economy may weigh strongly in any second independence referendum against the SNP?

From the FT last year

QUOTE
Official data on Wednesday showed the gap between public spending and revenues in Scotland widening to 9.5 per cent of gross domestic product, more than twice the deficit for the UK as a whole and high enough to ring alarm bells in any economy. 
QUOTE
As recently as 2011-12, a geographic share of UK North Sea oil revenues was worth £9.6bn, more than Scotland’s total public spending on education, training and environmental protection. Last year oil revenues were a paltry £60m, only enough to cover the recent refurbishment of Glasgow Queen Street rail tunnel.




This post has been edited by Doctor Blind: Mar 21 2017, 10:35 PM
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Andrew.
post Mar 21 2017, 10:34 PM
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QUOTE(Doctor Blind @ Mar 21 2017, 10:29 PM) *
Given the original bid for independence in 2014 was predicated on the price of crude oil remaining at $100 a barrel (being well over $130 a barrel at the time of their famous white paper), and it is now around half that, what is the likelihood that the economy may weigh strongly in any second independence referendum against the SNP?

From the FT last year

A country showing a deficit isn't unusual, the majority of countries have that. Most of our spending is done under Westminster so there being a big deficit is just another reason to vote yes imo.

On the oil, I've seen a lot of people saying it ruins the economic case for independence when they were saying that case didn't exist in the first place :') Not being in the EU with the oil situation as it is would just make things even worse.

Of course Oil isn't great at the moment but it's worth nothing that the current price has risen a lot from this time last year.


This post has been edited by Andrew.: Mar 21 2017, 10:36 PM
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Doctor Blind
post Mar 21 2017, 10:42 PM
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True, but the credibility of a political party that claimed 'in 2016-17 oil revenues would be somewhere in the region of £6.8bn to £7.9bn' when they are looking at being a few tens of million is badly wounded IMO.
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